- Title Pages
- Dedication
- Foreword
- Preface
- Notation
-
Chapter One A Quick Introduction to Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Two A Short Introduction to the Mathematical Theory of Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Three Fourier Analysis and Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Four Benfordʼs Law Geometry -
Chapter Five Explicit Error Bounds via Total Variation -
Chapter Six Lévy Processes and Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Seven Benfordʼs Law as a Bridge between Statistics and Accounting -
Chapter Eight Detecting Fraud and Errors Using Benfordʼs Law Mark Nigrini -
Chapter Nine Can Vote Countsʼ Digits and Benfordʼs Law Diagnose Elections? -
Chapter Ten Complementing Benfordʼs Law for Small N: A Local Bootstrap -
Chapter Eleven Measuring the Quality of European Statistics -
Chapter Twelve Benfordʼs Law and Fraud in Economic Research -
Chapter Thirteen Testing for Strategic Manipulation of Economic and Financial Data -
Chapter Fourteen Psychology and Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Fifteen Managing Risk in Numbers Games -
Chapter Sixteen Benfordʼs Law in the Natural Sciences -
Chapter Seventeen Generalizing Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Eighteen PV Modeling of Medical Imaging Systems -
Chapter Nineteen Application of Benfordʼs Law to Images -
Chapter Twenty Exercises - Bibliography
- Index
Testing for Strategic Manipulation of Economic and Financial Data
Testing for Strategic Manipulation of Economic and Financial Data
- Chapter:
- (p.257) Chapter Thirteen Testing for Strategic Manipulation of Economic and Financial Data
- Source:
- Benford's Law
- Author(s):
Charles C. Moul
John V. C. Nye
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
This chapter surveys applications of Benford's law within economics, such as its use in investigating the validity of macroeconomic data series. It argues that, given the strong interest in strategic behavior in economics, it makes sense to use Benford's law to investigate possible anomalies that suggest manipulation or other interference, especially when incentives increase for such tampering. The chapter then considers how a first-digit analysis informs Value at Risk (VAR) data from the U.S. financial sector over the past ten years. It finds that Benford's law fits precrisis data very well but is rejected for postcrisis data. Opportunities and incentives for such misreporting are then discussed.
Keywords: economics, Value at Risk, VAR, finance, first-digit analysis, misreporting, tampering
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- Title Pages
- Dedication
- Foreword
- Preface
- Notation
-
Chapter One A Quick Introduction to Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Two A Short Introduction to the Mathematical Theory of Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Three Fourier Analysis and Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Four Benfordʼs Law Geometry -
Chapter Five Explicit Error Bounds via Total Variation -
Chapter Six Lévy Processes and Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Seven Benfordʼs Law as a Bridge between Statistics and Accounting -
Chapter Eight Detecting Fraud and Errors Using Benfordʼs Law Mark Nigrini -
Chapter Nine Can Vote Countsʼ Digits and Benfordʼs Law Diagnose Elections? -
Chapter Ten Complementing Benfordʼs Law for Small N: A Local Bootstrap -
Chapter Eleven Measuring the Quality of European Statistics -
Chapter Twelve Benfordʼs Law and Fraud in Economic Research -
Chapter Thirteen Testing for Strategic Manipulation of Economic and Financial Data -
Chapter Fourteen Psychology and Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Fifteen Managing Risk in Numbers Games -
Chapter Sixteen Benfordʼs Law in the Natural Sciences -
Chapter Seventeen Generalizing Benfordʼs Law -
Chapter Eighteen PV Modeling of Medical Imaging Systems -
Chapter Nineteen Application of Benfordʼs Law to Images -
Chapter Twenty Exercises - Bibliography
- Index
