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Working the Weather: A Shift in the Life of a Weather Forecaster

Phaedra Daipha

in Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth

This chapter takes the reader on a tour of a NWS forecasting office’s ecology, operations, and culture to ultimately settle into a discussion of the basic routine of a forecast shift—from the moment ... More

This chapter takes the reader on a tour of a NWS forecasting office’s ecology, operations, and culture to ultimately settle into a discussion of the basic routine of a forecast shift—from the moment the incoming forecaster gets briefed by the outgoing forecaster to the moment she releases the NWS forecast to the world. While thoroughly intertwined in practice, the three main components of the forecasting task, to be considered in turn, are data analysis, deliberation, and forecast production. This step-by-step breakdown of the forecasting process sets the stage for the sustained examination of particular aspects of meteorological decision-making in the chapters to come. But it also fleshes out and elaborates pragmatist theory of action with the day-to-day realities of diagnosis and prognosis at the NWS.Less

Anticipating the Future: Temporal Regimes of Meteorological Decision Making

Phaedra Daipha

in Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth

Turning to the temporal dimensions of meteorological decision-making, this chapter identifies two principles underlying the logic of weather forecasting practice: risk and scale. The former rests on ... More

Turning to the temporal dimensions of meteorological decision-making, this chapter identifies two principles underlying the logic of weather forecasting practice: risk and scale. The former rests on a demarcation between routine and non-routine operations, while the latter is driven by the fact that the more global the reach of a weather phenomenon the earlier its detection. The joint influence of risk and spatial scale on weather forecasting practice yields four temporal regimes of decision-making: emergency, extended alert, near-term, and longer-term. This rudimentary framework is elaborated through an analysis of its empirical manifestation in summer weather forecasting, winter weather forecasting, short-term forecasting, and long-term forecasting respectively. The analysis complicates dual-process models of cognitive processing by establishing that, in practice, deliberation and heuristics are combined across disparate temporal regimes to produce organizationally sanctioned, skilled decisions.Less

Weather Prophecies

Jamie L. Pietruska

in Looking Forward: Prediction and Uncertainty in Modern America

This chapter examines conflicts over long-range weather forecasting from the 1890s to the 1910s, when the US Weather Bureau attempted to suppress the popular commercial “weather prophets” who sold ... More

This chapter examines conflicts over long-range weather forecasting from the 1890s to the 1910s, when the US Weather Bureau attempted to suppress the popular commercial “weather prophets” who sold predictions a month, a season, or a year in advance and threatened the professional authority of the government’s civilian weather agency. It focuses on the career of Willis L. Moore, chief of the Weather Bureau from 1895 to 1913, and his efforts to discredit private long-range forecasters as frauds while teaching the public to trust in but also accept the limitations of short-term weather forecasting and scientific meteorology. It also describes Moore’s rivalry with St. Louis long-range forecaster W. T. Foster and Moore’s ironic entry into the long-range forecasting business himself. The chapter traces the shift from the Weather Bureau’s rejection of long-range forecasting as unscientific toward the introduction of its weekly forecasts in the early twentieth century and its acceptance of uncertainty as an inescapable feature of weather forecasting.Less

Writing on the Winds

Gary Alan Fine

in Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction

This chapter explores public science as communication. Specifically, it addresses four aspects of the occupational tasks of meteorologists: how they coordinate their forecasts with others inside ... More

This chapter explores public science as communication. Specifically, it addresses four aspects of the occupational tasks of meteorologists: how they coordinate their forecasts with others inside their office and with other National Weather Service offices; the art of writing forecasts and forecast discussions, suggesting how meteorologists think about their words; how forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center use visual representations (“boxes”) to claim their authority, emphasizing that communication is not necessarily tied to words; and the technological change the author of this book observed during his research in which a computerized forecast system was introduced. In this system meteorologists manipulated a database, which removed the authority to create the written forecast from the meteorologist.Less

:: A Stagnant Atmosphere: The Weather Services before World War II

Kristine C. Harper

in Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology

This chapter describes the stagnant state of meteorological services during the interwar period. The US Weather Bureau was the agency responsible for the nation’s weather. Operating on a small budget ... More

This chapter describes the stagnant state of meteorological services during the interwar period. The US Weather Bureau was the agency responsible for the nation’s weather. Operating on a small budget of $2 million annually—or two cents per person—its free weather forecasts saved American farmers and businesses tens of millions of dollars by reducing crop losses. But despite its positive economic influence, the Bureau’s budget and staff shrank due to the funding reductions of the Great Depression. What little progress had been made, primarily in aviation-related support, gave way to drastic retrenchment during the 1930s.Less

On the Floor

Gary Alan Fine

in Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction

This chapter explores the social contours of the meteorological life. The goal is to situate the occupation within its organizational and social psychological constraints. It argues that the ... More

This chapter explores the social contours of the meteorological life. The goal is to situate the occupation within its organizational and social psychological constraints. It argues that the structure, culture, and interactions of operational meteorologists create the conditions in which weather forecasts are produced. In this case, it is the relationship of meteorology to science, to claims about the future, and to the communication of this knowledge that are at issue. The chapter begins with the place and space in which meteorology is done, moving inward to work relations, the links between humans and machines, and labor under conditions of stress and threat. Although meteorologists work for numerous organizations, the focus is on government employees, the authors of official weather information and keepers of the equipment that produces this information.Less

Futurework

Gary Alan Fine

in Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction

This chapter explores the production of the future. How do meteorologists create forecasts to contain uncertainty? Meteorologists rely on gathered data in conjunction with models that provide a ... More

This chapter explores the production of the future. How do meteorologists create forecasts to contain uncertainty? Meteorologists rely on gathered data in conjunction with models that provide a theoretical infrastructure. This affects the data to be collected. But if this was all that was necessary, forecasters would not be needed, so humans carve out a domain of personal expertise, selecting among alternate models, doubting the adequacy of data, and then adding their own experience. Armed with data, theory, and experience, the organization provides legitimacy that is crucial for the presentation of these public predictions. Meteorologists, like other future workers, are authorized to predict by their sponsors. They are mandated to colonize the future.Less

:: A Changing Atmosphere: From Developmental to Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (1952–1955)

Kristine C. Harper

in Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology

This chapter details the progress toward operational numerical weather prediction. All three weather services—the Navy, the Air Force, and the Weather Bureau—which were members of the Joint ... More

This chapter details the progress toward operational numerical weather prediction. All three weather services—the Navy, the Air Force, and the Weather Bureau—which were members of the Joint Meteorological Committee of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, coordinated the details of the new Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) to be located in Suitland, Maryland. Despite challenges, they produced the first “operational” weather map in May 1955—almost three years after deciding to move numerical weather prediction from the realm of research to operations. In so doing, the three weather services advanced numerical techniques more quickly than would have been possible in the less time-critical research environment.Less

The Daily “Probabilities”

Jamie L. Pietruska

in Looking Forward: Prediction and Uncertainty in Modern America

This chapter focuses on controversies over rural access to short-term weather forecasts and storm warnings after 1870, when the US Army Signal Service established the country’s first national weather ... More

This chapter focuses on controversies over rural access to short-term weather forecasts and storm warnings after 1870, when the US Army Signal Service established the country’s first national weather service and brought official government forecasts into daily life. It describes the operation of the Signal Service’s information network, which collected synchronous weather observations from across the country that were transmitted by telegraph to Washington, D.C. and translated into a daily weather summary and forecast called the “Synopsis and Probabilities.” The chapter focuses on the increasing rural demand for access to government weather forecasts and the Signal Service’s attempts to disseminate weather information to areas beyond the reach of its telegraph network in the 1870s and 1880s. It features the perspectives of rural postmasters and farmers who experienced daily uncertainties regarding when and if the daily “Probabilities” would arrive. The chapter reveals how the government’s problem of short-term weather forecasting in the countryside was solved by the advent of Rural Free Delivery and rural telephone lines at the turn of the twentieth century.Less

:: Creating a Realistic Atmosphere (1950–1952)

Kristine C. Harper

in Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology

This chapter details how the Meteorology Project tested a variety of atmospheric models. First run on Army Ordnance’s ENIAC and then on John von Neumann’s computer, the team members modified the ... More

This chapter details how the Meteorology Project tested a variety of atmospheric models. First run on Army Ordnance’s ENIAC and then on John von Neumann’s computer, the team members modified the models to get a “match” between the computer forecast and the weather that had occurred. The initial post hoc forecasts of the infamous 1950 Thanksgiving Day storm, which had dumped large amounts of snow and rain in the Mid-Atlantic states, were made in spring 1952. The results were poor. The first two computer models failed to catch the explosive deepening of the low-pressure system, but the third model—a simple two-level baroclinic model—did the trick. Even though the “predicted” low-pressure center was 240 miles from its observed position, the computer-generated forecast would have allowed forecasters to forecast the rain and snow that had disrupted the Eastern Seaboard. The Princeton team members were moving closer toward their goal of creating a realistic atmospheric prediction, but they were not the only ones. Army Air Force meteorologist Philip Thompson, an original Meteorology Project member, was also developing and testing his own models at the Air Force’s Geophysical Research Directorate in Cambridge, Massachusetts.Less

Introduction

Gary Alan Fine

in Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction

This introductory chapter begins by outlining the broad theoretical issues addressed in this book, in an attempt to understand the conditions of work of weather forecasters. It then provides a ... More

This introductory chapter begins by outlining the broad theoretical issues addressed in this book, in an attempt to understand the conditions of work of weather forecasters. It then provides a background on the current study, followed by a discussion of the history and memory of weather. An overview of the subsequent chapters is also presented.Less

:: A New Atmosphere

Kristine C. Harper

in Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology

The opening of the new Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit marked the end of the preliminary research period, but it was just the beginning of the worldwide spread of numerical weather ... More

The opening of the new Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit marked the end of the preliminary research period, but it was just the beginning of the worldwide spread of numerical weather prediction. This chapter briefly extends the story to the current time. As their very different meteorological missions exacerbated cultural differences, the Navy and the Air Force removed their personnel and formed their own operational prediction units, leaving the Weather Bureau to fund and staff its own center. As computer availability, processing speed, and memory capacity increased, universities began their own modeling and research projects. The modeling and prediction efforts of individual European nations joined forces to create the European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), which would provide formidable competition to US-based efforts. In time, modelers would attempt to forecast for longer and longer periods, until long-range forecasts took the first steps to becoming climate models.Less

Jupiter Winds and Weather

Andrew P. Ingersoll

in Planetary Climates

This chapter examines the effect of winds on Jupiter's weather. The Great Red Spot is an atmospheric structure—a storm—that is free to move about under the laws of fluid dynamics. On Earth, these ... More

This chapter examines the effect of winds on Jupiter's weather. The Great Red Spot is an atmospheric structure—a storm—that is free to move about under the laws of fluid dynamics. On Earth, these laws lead to turbulence, chaos, and limited predictability. By comparison, the Red Spot is well behaved. It stays in one latitude band, rolling like a ball bearing between two conveyor belts—a westward current to the north and an eastward current to the south. All the large-scale features are remarkably constant. Atmospheric scientists during the Voyager encounter were surprised by the areas outside the Red Spot and the three white ovals—formerly featureless areas that had become turbulent convective regions. The chapter first provides an overview of long-range weather forecasting on Jupiter before discussing the dynamics of rotating fluids, momentum transfer by eddies, stability of zonal jets, geostrophic balance, vorticity, and abyssal weather.Less

:: An International Atmosphere: Carl-Gustav Rossby and the Scandinavian Connection (1948–1950)

Kristine C. Harper

in Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology

This chapter discusses how Carl-Gustav Rossby’s research school not only influenced international meteorology generally, but also overcame the initial skepticism of both theoretical and applied ... More

This chapter discusses how Carl-Gustav Rossby’s research school not only influenced international meteorology generally, but also overcame the initial skepticism of both theoretical and applied meteorologists who doubted that numerical weather prediction was a valid and necessary technique for extending meteorological theory and improving weather forecasting. Founder of two meteorology programs in the United States (those at MIT and the University of Chicago), responsible for wartime training, and founder of the first peer-reviewed meteorological journal in the United States and of a Swedish journal aimed at the broader international geophysics community, Rossby was in the perfect position to convince the international meteorological community of the wisdom of numerical weather prediction. Providing a series of Scandinavian meteorologists who could bridge the gap between synoptic (current weather analysis) and dynamic (atmospheric motions) meteorology, he played a significant and largely unheralded role in the successful development of numerical weather-prediction techniques.Less

:: Toward a More Dynamic Atmosphere: Discipline Development in the Interwar Period (1919–1938)

Kristine C. Harper

in Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology

This chapter discusses the establishment of meteorology programs, and later departments, beginning in the late 1920s. Carl-Gustav Rossby’s theoretical program at the Massachusetts Institute of ... More

This chapter discusses the establishment of meteorology programs, and later departments, beginning in the late 1920s. Carl-Gustav Rossby’s theoretical program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was followed within a few years by applied aviation-related meteorology programs at New York University and at the California Institute of Technology. Young people interested in meteorology—not to mention forecasters already employed by the US Weather Bureau, the US Navy, and the US Army Signal Corps—had domestic options for meteorological education. Having formed their own national professional organization in 1919—the American Meteorological Society (AMS)—a higher-profile meteorology community took shape. The AMS encouraged the expansion of educational opportunities at all levels and worked to influence an emerging research agenda in meteorology.Less

Weather Forecasts

Chris Bleakley

in Poems That Solve Puzzles: The History and Science of Algorithms

Chapter 4 tells the story of numerical weather forecasting from its inception to today’s supercomputing algorithms. In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson proposed that, since the atmosphere is subject to the ... More

Chapter 4 tells the story of numerical weather forecasting from its inception to today’s supercomputing algorithms. In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson proposed that, since the atmosphere is subject to the laws of physics, future weather can be predicted by means of algorithmic calculations. His attempt at forecasting a single day’s weather by means of manual calculations took several months. In the late 1940s, John von Neumann resurrected Richardson’s idea and launched a project to conduct the first weather forecast by computer. The world’s first operational electronic computer – ENIAC - completed a 24-hour forecast in just one day. It appeared that accurate forecasting simply required faster computers. In 1969, Edward Lorenz discovered that tiny errors in weather measurements can accumulate during numerical forecasting to produce large errors. The so-called Butterfly Effect was alleviated by the Monte Carlo simulation method invented by Stanislaw Ulam for particle physics.Less

Prediction, Prophecy, and Scientific Culture

in Predicting the Weather: Victorians and the Science of Meteorology

This chapter argues that men of science built a spectrum of knowledge that connected the most prestigious and impressive kinds of prediction, in astronomy, with other lesser investigations in order ... More

This chapter argues that men of science built a spectrum of knowledge that connected the most prestigious and impressive kinds of prediction, in astronomy, with other lesser investigations in order to represent science as the highest form of reason. But those arguments about a spectrum of knowledge could turn into a liability. The central place of prediction in accounts of a cultural hierarchy of knowledge made the struggle with partial and inexact forecasts in meteorology a critical matter. The debates about prediction provide a framework for understanding meteorological controversies as they unfolded from the 1840s to the 1880s.Less

Get the Data and Make Them Usable

Hill and

in Building a Resilient Tomorrow: How to Prepare for the Coming Climate Disruption

As climate change advances and its impacts become clearer, more and more communities around the world will need deeper insight into the future, both immediate and distant. Decision-makers will ... More

As climate change advances and its impacts become clearer, more and more communities around the world will need deeper insight into the future, both immediate and distant. Decision-makers will require information to make high-impact, hard-to-reverse decisions about water, agriculture, and where and how to build infrastructure in a world experiencing climate change. They must model the projected evolution of droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires so that they can help people get out of harm’s way, and they will need data to make disaster-relief operations more effective. The world’s capacity to collect and analyze climate and weather data has exploded. Yet many of the people who need these data lack both access to them and the means to make them useful for decision-making. This chapter describes this data paradox and offer a few ideas on how to escape it.Less