Search Results

Introduction

Christopher D. Kolenda

in Zero-Sum Victory: What We're Getting Wrong About War

The introduction embeds the book’s main argument within previous commentary and scholarship, and shows how the author’s personal experience can contribute valuable insights to our understanding of ... More

The introduction embeds the book’s main argument within previous commentary and scholarship, and shows how the author’s personal experience can contribute valuable insights to our understanding of what went wrong in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Specifically, this chapter lays bare the lack of U.S. terminology and taxonomy of successful war outcomes, which has led the U.S. repeatedly to fixate on decisive victory when other outcomes – and with that, other strategies – might have been more successful.Less

Domestic Coalition Shifts in War Termination

in Paths to Peace: Domestic Coalition Shifts, War Termination and the Korean War

This chapter outlines the existing literature about war termination. It demonstrates that there is a causal connection between the difficulty of ending wars and the fact that they are started and ... More

This chapter outlines the existing literature about war termination. It demonstrates that there is a causal connection between the difficulty of ending wars and the fact that they are started and ended by politicians. Realpolitik, domestic politics, and bargaining models can be used to illustrate categories about war termination. Bayesian models of war termination theorized more explicitly about lags in the updating process that can result in protracted stalemates. These models showed that a lag in updating can delay war termination, they do not elaborate on how states get beyond this lag. Ending war needed settling with the enemy as well as at home. It is noted that policy stability can result governing coalitions being ineffective for altering the status quo, even when such changes are necessary or desirable. Furthermore, a coalition shift can overpower the obstacles to peace and thus allows a war to end.Less

Domestic Coalition Shifts in War Termination since 1862

in Paths to Peace: Domestic Coalition Shifts, War Termination and the Korean War

This chapter investigates the domestic coalition shift theory using quantitative analysis of all interstate wars since 1862. The dataset of interstate wars after World War II is reviewed, which ... More

This chapter investigates the domestic coalition shift theory using quantitative analysis of all interstate wars since 1862. The dataset of interstate wars after World War II is reviewed, which includes all domestic coalition shifts observed on a daily basis, to increase the understanding of this alternative causal pathway. The evidence indicates that both mechanisms by which domestic coalition shifts can theoretically impact the development of an overlapping bargaining space seem to have empirical support. It also showed that the first mechanism is dominant, but they do not necessarily rule out the second (signaling) mechanism. Taken with the detailed process tracing of the causal mechanisms in the Korean War case studies, these data strongly reveal that the patterns predicted by the domestic coalition shift theory hold over a broad universe of cases and greatly enhance the understanding of war duration and war termination.Less

Further Defining War Termination

Christopher D. Kolenda

in Zero-Sum Victory: What We're Getting Wrong About War

This chapter discusses three successful war termination outcomes in irregular war: decisive victory, negotiated outcome, and transition, and shows how the choice of a desired war termination outcome ... More

This chapter discusses three successful war termination outcomes in irregular war: decisive victory, negotiated outcome, and transition, and shows how the choice of a desired war termination outcome affects the selection of an appropriate strategy.Less

Old Baldy

in Paths to Peace: Domestic Coalition Shifts, War Termination and the Korean War

This chapter describes a new theory about shifts in domestic governing coalitions. It also analyzes this theory with detailed historical case studies of the Korean War and quantitative analysis of ... More

This chapter describes a new theory about shifts in domestic governing coalitions. It also analyzes this theory with detailed historical case studies of the Korean War and quantitative analysis of all interstate wars since 1862. Old Baldy is a mountain in central Korea that is currently sited within the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. It earned its name during the Korean War, when intensive shelling obliterated all the trees and foliage on the hillside. It also changed hands eleven times during the Korean War, with units on both sides suffering massive casualties. Old Baldy can be regarded as the site of a series of battles that were senseless, irrational, and quite possibly inexplicable. The domestic coalition shift theory greatly enhanced the understanding of war duration and war termination in Korea. Finally, an overview of the chapters included in this book is given.Less

Implications for US Foreign Policy

Christopher D. Kolenda

in Zero-Sum Victory: What We're Getting Wrong About War

As the case study analysis has highlighted systemic factors in how the U.S. plans and wages its wars, this chapter suggests specific ways to address these problems and avoid getting caught in endless ... More

As the case study analysis has highlighted systemic factors in how the U.S. plans and wages its wars, this chapter suggests specific ways to address these problems and avoid getting caught in endless conflicts in the future.Less

The Past as Prologue: The Vietnam War

Christopher D. Kolenda

in Zero-Sum Victory: What We're Getting Wrong About War

This chapter gives an overview of the U.S. war in Vietnam to show that the war termination problems which the U.S. has encountered during the major post-9/11 interventions are not an aberration.

The Decisive Victory Paradigm Undermines Strategy for Irregular War

Christopher D. Kolenda

in Zero-Sum Victory: What We're Getting Wrong About War

This chapter argues that the U.S. national security establishment is organized intellectually and bureaucratically around the ability to wage conventional war. In irregular war, factors for success ... More

This chapter argues that the U.S. national security establishment is organized intellectually and bureaucratically around the ability to wage conventional war. In irregular war, factors for success might differ from conventional war. With counterinsurgencies, reducing tangible support for the insurgency and winning the battle for legitimacy are the two critical factors for success.Less

The Korean States: Powerless Players in the Forgotten War

in Paths to Peace: Domestic Coalition Shifts, War Termination and the Korean War

This chapter addresses the timeline of the Korean War and explains why the Soviet Union, China, and the United States were the most significant belligerents in decisions about prosecuting and ending ... More

This chapter addresses the timeline of the Korean War and explains why the Soviet Union, China, and the United States were the most significant belligerents in decisions about prosecuting and ending it. Using mini-case studies, it shows North and South Korea's insignificance in their respective side's decisions about the war. It illustrates how their domestic coalition shifts were unimportant for explaining the war's ending. The Soviet Union was considered as a main belligerent in the war because it bankrolled the Communist war effort with materiel and advisory support. North and South Korea were powerless in their respective side's decisions and actions. Their powerlessness indicated that their domestic politics are less germane to war termination. In particular, the domestic coalition shifts in North and South Korea had no impact to end the war.Less

Interacting Domestic Coalitions in Bargains for Peace

in Paths to Peace: Domestic Coalition Shifts, War Termination and the Korean War

This chapter pays attention to the strategic interaction between the belligerents in the Korean War termination bargaining process. It argues that the timing of war termination depended upon the ... More

This chapter pays attention to the strategic interaction between the belligerents in the Korean War termination bargaining process. It argues that the timing of war termination depended upon the strategic interaction of all three domestic coalition shifts in the Soviet Union, the United States, and China. In the special case of interacting coalition shifts on opposing sides, it seemed that the two mechanisms for developing an overlapping bargaining space worked in tandem. The data does not confirm the argument that Dwight Eisenhower's nuclear threats significantly played in ending the war. The Eisenhower Administration was mindful that the Soviet dovish shift was causing the Communists to lower their demands in the armistice negotiations. The Communists clearly responded to Eisenhower's hawkish shift by lowering their demands.Less

Operation Iraqi Freedom: Plans without a Strategy

Christopher D. Kolenda

in Zero-Sum Victory: What We're Getting Wrong About War

This chapter discusses war planning that preceded Operation Iraqi Freedom. It lays bare the implicit aim of decisive victory as well as the overly optimistic assumptions about turning military ... More

This chapter discusses war planning that preceded Operation Iraqi Freedom. It lays bare the implicit aim of decisive victory as well as the overly optimistic assumptions about turning military victory into a durable political outcome. While the military operation was repeatedly war-gamed and rehearsed, little attention was paid to post-combat operations, and even worse, there was yet again no inter-agency coordination.Less

Local Competition and PMSCs’ Behavior in Civil Wars

Seden Akcinaroglu and Elizabeth Radziszewski

in Private Militaries and the Security Industry in Civil Wars: Competition and Market Accountability

What is the significance of local or conflict-level competition on PMSCs’ military effectiveness? And what is the mechanism through which such competition improves PMSCs’ accountability? This chapter ... More

What is the significance of local or conflict-level competition on PMSCs’ military effectiveness? And what is the mechanism through which such competition improves PMSCs’ accountability? This chapter argues that variation in local competition, the number of PMSCs that operate in a given conflict zone, affects the level of accountability to the client. With the presence of multiple PMSCs, companies can anticipate the existence of informal peer monitoring. Whether gaining a competitive edge or safety concerns motivate companies’ monitoring of each other in the field, this puts pressure on PMSCs to fulfill contractual obligations and become more militarily effective or risk losing future contracts. The chapter argues that a greater level of local competition pushes companies to improve their skills and to limit fraud and human rights abuses, factors that contribute to quicker termination of war.Less

Epilogue

Hikari Hori

in Promiscuous Media: Film and Visual Culture in Imperial Japan, 1926-1945

The last chapter begins by briefly discussing postwar developments in dramatic, documentary and animated film. Discourses of nationalist and imperialist identity might no longer be overtly manifested ... More

The last chapter begins by briefly discussing postwar developments in dramatic, documentary and animated film. Discourses of nationalist and imperialist identity might no longer be overtly manifested in these genres and media in the early postwar era, but they did not dissolve with the termination of war in 1945. One of the best examples of continuity is the image of the emperor, which survived—and indeed continues today—to serve as one of the most important constituents of nation and nationalism in postwar Japanese media and visual culture. To reinforce this point, the chapter turns to the well-known double portrait of Emperor Hirohito and General Douglas MacArthur, which should be seen as a continuation of the wartime imperial portrait photograph. (120 words)Less

Iraq and Afghanistan Compared

Christopher D. Kolenda

in Zero-Sum Victory: What We're Getting Wrong About War

This chapter compares the insights from both case studies to show how the lack of war termination terminology led the U.S. to adopt myopic strategies aimed at decisive victory while ignoring the ... More

This chapter compares the insights from both case studies to show how the lack of war termination terminology led the U.S. to adopt myopic strategies aimed at decisive victory while ignoring the critical factors for such victory. In both Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. military invasion gave way to predatory governments, but the U.S. was slow to revise its strategy. Cognitive biases, bureaucratic silos, and patron-client issues led the U.S. to stick with strategies and ignore adverse signs. When the U.S. wanted to withdraw from those countries, bargaining asymmetries left them in a weak position, forcing them to withdraw without having achieved a durable and favorable outcome. By comparing those two cases, the chapter highlights the systemic nature of these problems.Less

The Ends of War: Homecoming for the Indian Soldier and Follower, 1914–21

Radhika Singha

in The Coolie's Great War: Indian Labour in a Global Conflict, 1914-1921

This chapter explores the termination of the Great War as a prolonged event, marked by de-mobilisation and re-mobilisation, and shaped by a variety of political interventions. The return home, in the ... More

This chapter explores the termination of the Great War as a prolonged event, marked by de-mobilisation and re-mobilisation, and shaped by a variety of political interventions. The return home, in the various forms that it took, was an exercise government had to manage throughout the war. It was a crucial part of the war experience for military personnel and one they sought to shape. The chapter examines the ‘returnee’ in his various avatars – as deserter, disabled service-man, and prisoner- of- war, and discharged veteran. It suggests that returning personnel explored a wider range of political options than allowed for in existing literature, where the key question is whether de-mobilised personnel returned with anti-imperialist views and participated in the seething mass movements of 1919-21. The widening arc of military recruitment in 1917-1919 had synergized with the hectic forging of new political constituencies to intensify expectations and anxieties among military personnel. Their prolonged post-Armistice deployment, even as British and Dominion troops were being de-mobilised, gave them the confidence to question race and institutional hierarchies in the army and this was not an apolitical response. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the politics of commemoration and the invocation of an ‘Asia’ stretching from West and Central Asia into India, united by an imagination of self-government.Less

Introduction

George Perkovich and Toby Dalton

in Not War, Not Peace?: Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism

This introductory chapter outlines the strategic dilemma India faces—managing the threat of terrorism emanating from Pakistan and motivating Pakistani actors to prevent cross-border terrorism—and ... More

This introductory chapter outlines the strategic dilemma India faces—managing the threat of terrorism emanating from Pakistan and motivating Pakistani actors to prevent cross-border terrorism—and examines the political and strategic goals of Indian decision makers in responding to this dilemma. It begins by detailing Indian responses to recent crises in order to provide insight into the ways in which Indians define the challenges and the imperatives of Indian policy. Drawing on interviews, the chapter also describes some of the perspectives and impulses that Indian military, diplomatic, and national security professionals bring to the current challenges. It then examines the classic theoretical framework of deterrence and compellence, as well as prominent international security theories of escalation dominance and war termination, in the context of the India-Pakistan conflict. The chapter concludes by laying out the strategic options available to policymakers, which are addressed in the subsequent chapters.Less

The Building and Breaking of Peace: Understanding Corporate Effects on Conflict Prevention and Resolution

Molly M. Melin

in The Building and Breaking of Peace: Corporate Activities in Civil War Prevention and Resolution

This chapter explores the role businesses play in creating peaceful societies. It builds on the rational choice theory of civil war onset and termination and draws from business research to ... More

This chapter explores the role businesses play in creating peaceful societies. It builds on the rational choice theory of civil war onset and termination and draws from business research to understand the role private firms play in preventing civil wars. Firms are uniquely situated in their ability to raise the cost of violence, and proactive firms can significantly increase a country’s peace years. At the same time, an active private sector can make it significantly harder to reach an agreement for states with active conflict, as they act as an additional veto player in the bargaining process. This chapter tests these arguments on original cross-national data. The findings emphasize the need for political scientists to examine further the role of the private sector in many of the topics they study and generate a more complete picture of conflict and its resolution.Less