David M. Farrell and Roger Scully
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780199285020
- eISBN:
- 9780191713651
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199285020.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The past fifteen years have seen declining public support for European integration, and widespread suggestions that a legitimacy crisis faces the European Union (EU). Many in the EU have believed ...
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The past fifteen years have seen declining public support for European integration, and widespread suggestions that a legitimacy crisis faces the European Union (EU). Many in the EU have believed that this problem could be effectively tackled by vesting greater powers in the European Parliament (EP), the Union's only directly-elected institution. The central argument of this book is that, while considerable efforts have been made to increase the status of the EP, it is in crucial respects a failure as a representative body. This failure is grounded in the manner in which the parliament is elected. The electoral systems used for EP elections in many EU countries are, the book argues, actively obstructive of Europe's voters being represented in the way that they are most likely to respond positively towards. While the behaviour of EP members is shaped strongly by the electoral systems under which they are elected (which vary across the twenty-five member states of the EU), the electoral systems currently in place push most of them to behave in ways contrary to what citizens desire. Drawing on public opinion data, surveys of MEPs and considerable qualitative interview evidence, this book that the failure of parliamentary representation in the EU has a strong foundation in electoral institutions.Less
The past fifteen years have seen declining public support for European integration, and widespread suggestions that a legitimacy crisis faces the European Union (EU). Many in the EU have believed that this problem could be effectively tackled by vesting greater powers in the European Parliament (EP), the Union's only directly-elected institution. The central argument of this book is that, while considerable efforts have been made to increase the status of the EP, it is in crucial respects a failure as a representative body. This failure is grounded in the manner in which the parliament is elected. The electoral systems used for EP elections in many EU countries are, the book argues, actively obstructive of Europe's voters being represented in the way that they are most likely to respond positively towards. While the behaviour of EP members is shaped strongly by the electoral systems under which they are elected (which vary across the twenty-five member states of the EU), the electoral systems currently in place push most of them to behave in ways contrary to what citizens desire. Drawing on public opinion data, surveys of MEPs and considerable qualitative interview evidence, this book that the failure of parliamentary representation in the EU has a strong foundation in electoral institutions.
Dieter Nohlen, Bernard Thibaut, and Michael Krennerich (eds)
- Published in print:
- 1999
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198296454
- eISBN:
- 9780191600036
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198296452.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Reference
Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of ...
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Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of post‐independence African politics and have assumed the utmost importance in the course of recent democratization processes. However, comparative research on political development in Africa lacks reliable electoral data. Elections in Africa fills this gap. Following the overall structure of the series, an initial comparative introduction on elections and electoral systems is followed by chapters on each state of the region. These contributions examine the evolution of institutional and electoral arrangements from independence to the present (1999), and provide systematic surveys of the up‐to‐date electoral provisions and their historical development. Exhaustive statistics on national elections (presidential, parliamentary, and constitutional assembly), referendums and coups d’état are included within each chapter; these cover electoral bodies and voting, electoral participation of parties and alliances, vote distribution, parliamentary composition, and power holders. The data are presented in the same systematic manner for all countries in order to provide electoral statistics in line with internationally established standards of documentation, so that the data can be easily compared. The book, therefore, provides a definitive and comprehensive set of data on elections in order to facilitate comparative research. Together with the other books of this series, Elections in Africa is a highly reliable resource for historical and cross‐national comparisons of elections and electoral systems worldwide.Less
Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of post‐independence African politics and have assumed the utmost importance in the course of recent democratization processes. However, comparative research on political development in Africa lacks reliable electoral data. Elections in Africa fills this gap. Following the overall structure of the series, an initial comparative introduction on elections and electoral systems is followed by chapters on each state of the region. These contributions examine the evolution of institutional and electoral arrangements from independence to the present (1999), and provide systematic surveys of the up‐to‐date electoral provisions and their historical development. Exhaustive statistics on national elections (presidential, parliamentary, and constitutional assembly), referendums and coups d’état are included within each chapter; these cover electoral bodies and voting, electoral participation of parties and alliances, vote distribution, parliamentary composition, and power holders. The data are presented in the same systematic manner for all countries in order to provide electoral statistics in line with internationally established standards of documentation, so that the data can be easily compared. The book, therefore, provides a definitive and comprehensive set of data on elections in order to facilitate comparative research. Together with the other books of this series, Elections in Africa is a highly reliable resource for historical and cross‐national comparisons of elections and electoral systems worldwide.
Asifa Hussain and William Miller
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- September 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199280711
- eISBN:
- 9780191604102
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199280711.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Questions in the 2003 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey were used to compare Islamophobia with four other Scottish phobias: sectarianism (primarily anti-Catholic), and phobias about Europe, Asylum ...
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Questions in the 2003 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey were used to compare Islamophobia with four other Scottish phobias: sectarianism (primarily anti-Catholic), and phobias about Europe, Asylum seekers, and ‘the auld enemy’(England). Social factors affected all phobias the same way, but political factors discriminated. Conservative voters scored low on Anglophobia but high on every other phobia; SNP voters scored high on Anglophobia but not on other phobias. This suggested that Anglophobia itself displaced Islamophobia by providing another target, and that England itself helped reduce within-Scotland phobias by providing Scots with a common, external and very significant ‘other’. Scotland is too small, too peripheral, and too insignificant to play a corresponding role in displacing phobias within England. However, by stimulating English nationalism without providing a truly significant ‘other’, Scottish nationalism may actually increase Islamophobia in England, but not in Scotland.Less
Questions in the 2003 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey were used to compare Islamophobia with four other Scottish phobias: sectarianism (primarily anti-Catholic), and phobias about Europe, Asylum seekers, and ‘the auld enemy’(England). Social factors affected all phobias the same way, but political factors discriminated. Conservative voters scored low on Anglophobia but high on every other phobia; SNP voters scored high on Anglophobia but not on other phobias. This suggested that Anglophobia itself displaced Islamophobia by providing another target, and that England itself helped reduce within-Scotland phobias by providing Scots with a common, external and very significant ‘other’. Scotland is too small, too peripheral, and too insignificant to play a corresponding role in displacing phobias within England. However, by stimulating English nationalism without providing a truly significant ‘other’, Scottish nationalism may actually increase Islamophobia in England, but not in Scotland.
Paul Whiteley, Patrick Seyd, and Antony Billinghurst
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- September 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199242825
- eISBN:
- 9780191604140
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199242828.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
This chapter examines the social and demographic profiles as well as the political attitudes of Liberal Democrat party members, drawing upon an earlier study of Liberal Democrat party to identify ...
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This chapter examines the social and demographic profiles as well as the political attitudes of Liberal Democrat party members, drawing upon an earlier study of Liberal Democrat party to identify changes in their profiles during the 1990s. Comparisons are made between the social backgrounds of party members and those of Liberal Democrat voters to determine what differences, if any, exist between the two types of party supporters. Activism within the party and whether there is any evidence of a decline in participation in recent years are analyzed. The evidence suggests that while many party members are active, there has been a decline in party activism over time and a weakening of the ties between the party and its members.Less
This chapter examines the social and demographic profiles as well as the political attitudes of Liberal Democrat party members, drawing upon an earlier study of Liberal Democrat party to identify changes in their profiles during the 1990s. Comparisons are made between the social backgrounds of party members and those of Liberal Democrat voters to determine what differences, if any, exist between the two types of party supporters. Activism within the party and whether there is any evidence of a decline in participation in recent years are analyzed. The evidence suggests that while many party members are active, there has been a decline in party activism over time and a weakening of the ties between the party and its members.
Amanda Bittner
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- May 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780199595365
- eISBN:
- 9780191725593
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199595365.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Campaign organizers and the media appear to agree that voters' perceptions of party leaders have an important impact in elections: considerable effort is made to ensure that leaders look good, speak ...
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Campaign organizers and the media appear to agree that voters' perceptions of party leaders have an important impact in elections: considerable effort is made to ensure that leaders look good, speak well, and that they are up in the polls. In contrast, the academic literature is much more divided. Some suggest that leaders play an important role in the vote calculus, while others argue that in comparison to other factors, perceptions of leaders have only a minimal impact. This study incorporates data from thirty-five election studies across seven countries with varying institutional environments, and takes both a broad and in-depth look at the role of leaders. A few noteworthy conclusions emerge. First, voters evaluate leaders' traits in terms of two main dimensions: character and competence. Second, voters perceive leaders within the framework of a partisan stereotype in which the party label of the leader imbues meaning; more specifically, leaders of Conservative parties are seen to be more competent while Left leaders are seen to have more character. Third, and most importantly, leaders matter: they affect voters' decisions and have a discernible effect on the distribution of votes in an election. Fourth, there are consistent differences in the perception of party leaders according to voters' level of political sophistication. While all voters evaluate party leaders and consider leaders in their vote calculus, the more sophisticated do so the most. This book argues that personality plays an important role in elections, and that in a healthy democracy, so it should.Less
Campaign organizers and the media appear to agree that voters' perceptions of party leaders have an important impact in elections: considerable effort is made to ensure that leaders look good, speak well, and that they are up in the polls. In contrast, the academic literature is much more divided. Some suggest that leaders play an important role in the vote calculus, while others argue that in comparison to other factors, perceptions of leaders have only a minimal impact. This study incorporates data from thirty-five election studies across seven countries with varying institutional environments, and takes both a broad and in-depth look at the role of leaders. A few noteworthy conclusions emerge. First, voters evaluate leaders' traits in terms of two main dimensions: character and competence. Second, voters perceive leaders within the framework of a partisan stereotype in which the party label of the leader imbues meaning; more specifically, leaders of Conservative parties are seen to be more competent while Left leaders are seen to have more character. Third, and most importantly, leaders matter: they affect voters' decisions and have a discernible effect on the distribution of votes in an election. Fourth, there are consistent differences in the perception of party leaders according to voters' level of political sophistication. While all voters evaluate party leaders and consider leaders in their vote calculus, the more sophisticated do so the most. This book argues that personality plays an important role in elections, and that in a healthy democracy, so it should.
Margit Tavits
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- January 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199553327
- eISBN:
- 9780191721007
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199553327.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples ...
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Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples of parliamentary systems with elected heads of state demonstrate that citizens' satisfaction with government, political disillusionment, their commitment to democratic values and level of political involvement are not significantly affected by introducing direct presidential elections. In fact, the additional election increases voter fatigue and decreases turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points. Since direct presidential elections are no more likely to decrease citizen disillusionment with the government and strengthen democratic practices than indirect elections, this chapter concludes that these systems have indistinguishable effects on democratic attitudes. The noticeable effect of introducing additional elections on voter behavior, however, merits the attention of institutional designers.Less
Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples of parliamentary systems with elected heads of state demonstrate that citizens' satisfaction with government, political disillusionment, their commitment to democratic values and level of political involvement are not significantly affected by introducing direct presidential elections. In fact, the additional election increases voter fatigue and decreases turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points. Since direct presidential elections are no more likely to decrease citizen disillusionment with the government and strengthen democratic practices than indirect elections, this chapter concludes that these systems have indistinguishable effects on democratic attitudes. The noticeable effect of introducing additional elections on voter behavior, however, merits the attention of institutional designers.
Delia Baldassarri
- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- January 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780199828241
- eISBN:
- 9780199979783
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199828241.001.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Politics, Social Movements and Social Change
Voting distills a complex decision into a deceptively simple action. The electorate faces a messy tangle of parties, leaders, and issues. How is it possible for voters to unravel it all? How do they ...
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Voting distills a complex decision into a deceptively simple action. The electorate faces a messy tangle of parties, leaders, and issues. How is it possible for voters to unravel it all? How do they perceive the political landscape? How, in short, do voters choose? Not only is voting a complex choice, but voters themselves also vary widely in their degree of interest, and involvement in politics. This book provides a new understanding of how voting works by focusing on how choices are made given the cognitive limitations of the human mind and the environment in which decision making takes place. Drawing on recent advances in the study of cognitive psychology, decision making, and political cognition, this book provides a careful empirical examination of the strategies voters actually use to manage the complexity of political choice. Expressly rejecting the prevailing one-size-fits-all, “what a rational voter should do” approach, it distinguishes voters based on the cognitive shortcuts, or heuristics, they use to simplify the decision-making process. Drawing on survey data from the 1990s Italian national general elections, the book identifies four types of voters, classified by how they perceive and organize the political debate—from those who capably rely on nuanced ideological categories to those who, skeptical about all-things-political, prove easy prey for television broadcasters. The typology allows us to grasp the actual differences in political sophistication among citizens and to understand which factors are most important to different types of voters. The book helps us make sense of the various ways in which citizens themselves make sense of—and make “simple”—the complex world of politics.Less
Voting distills a complex decision into a deceptively simple action. The electorate faces a messy tangle of parties, leaders, and issues. How is it possible for voters to unravel it all? How do they perceive the political landscape? How, in short, do voters choose? Not only is voting a complex choice, but voters themselves also vary widely in their degree of interest, and involvement in politics. This book provides a new understanding of how voting works by focusing on how choices are made given the cognitive limitations of the human mind and the environment in which decision making takes place. Drawing on recent advances in the study of cognitive psychology, decision making, and political cognition, this book provides a careful empirical examination of the strategies voters actually use to manage the complexity of political choice. Expressly rejecting the prevailing one-size-fits-all, “what a rational voter should do” approach, it distinguishes voters based on the cognitive shortcuts, or heuristics, they use to simplify the decision-making process. Drawing on survey data from the 1990s Italian national general elections, the book identifies four types of voters, classified by how they perceive and organize the political debate—from those who capably rely on nuanced ideological categories to those who, skeptical about all-things-political, prove easy prey for television broadcasters. The typology allows us to grasp the actual differences in political sophistication among citizens and to understand which factors are most important to different types of voters. The book helps us make sense of the various ways in which citizens themselves make sense of—and make “simple”—the complex world of politics.
Robert E. Goodin
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199256174
- eISBN:
- 9780191599354
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199256179.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Political Theory
Shows how Bayesian thinking should make democratic outcomes so rationally compelling. Bayes's formula provides a mathematical expression for specifying exactly how we ought rationally to update our a ...
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Shows how Bayesian thinking should make democratic outcomes so rationally compelling. Bayes's formula provides a mathematical expression for specifying exactly how we ought rationally to update our a priori beliefs in light of subsequent evidence, and the proposal is that voters are modelled in like fashion: votes, let us suppose, constitute (among other things) ‘reports’ of the voter's experiences and perceptions; further suppose that voters accord ‘evidentiary value’ to the reports they receive from one another through those votes; and further suppose that voters are rational, and that part and parcel of their being rational is being prepared to revise their opinions in light of further evidence (including evidence emanating from one another's votes‐cum‐reports). In this process, each of us treats our own experiences and perceptions as one source of evidence, and regards our own report as right; in that sense, we are perfectly sincere when we vote in a particular way, although we also acknowledge that our own experiences and perspectives are particular and peculiar, and hence our own perceptions are themselves inconclusive; because of that, voters striving to behave rationally should sincerely want to adjust their a priori beliefs in the light of all other experiences and perceptions that are reported at an election. Bayesian updating of that sort may well lead people who started out believing (and voting) one way to end up believing (and genuinely wanting implemented) the opposite way, just so long as sufficiently many votes‐cum‐reports point in that different direction; in other words, Bayesian reasoning can, and in politically typical cases ought to, provide people with a compelling reason to accede to the majority verdict. In this way, Bayesianism ‘rationalizes’ majority rule in a pretty strong sense; indeed if anything, it underwrites majoritarianism too strongly.Less
Shows how Bayesian thinking should make democratic outcomes so rationally compelling. Bayes's formula provides a mathematical expression for specifying exactly how we ought rationally to update our a priori beliefs in light of subsequent evidence, and the proposal is that voters are modelled in like fashion: votes, let us suppose, constitute (among other things) ‘reports’ of the voter's experiences and perceptions; further suppose that voters accord ‘evidentiary value’ to the reports they receive from one another through those votes; and further suppose that voters are rational, and that part and parcel of their being rational is being prepared to revise their opinions in light of further evidence (including evidence emanating from one another's votes‐cum‐reports). In this process, each of us treats our own experiences and perceptions as one source of evidence, and regards our own report as right; in that sense, we are perfectly sincere when we vote in a particular way, although we also acknowledge that our own experiences and perspectives are particular and peculiar, and hence our own perceptions are themselves inconclusive; because of that, voters striving to behave rationally should sincerely want to adjust their a priori beliefs in the light of all other experiences and perceptions that are reported at an election. Bayesian updating of that sort may well lead people who started out believing (and voting) one way to end up believing (and genuinely wanting implemented) the opposite way, just so long as sufficiently many votes‐cum‐reports point in that different direction; in other words, Bayesian reasoning can, and in politically typical cases ought to, provide people with a compelling reason to accede to the majority verdict. In this way, Bayesianism ‘rationalizes’ majority rule in a pretty strong sense; indeed if anything, it underwrites majoritarianism too strongly.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780199287741
- eISBN:
- 9780191713408
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0013
- Subject:
- Political Science, Democratization
The more important levels have fewer positions, and the share of minorities goes down. The law of minority attrition is a quantitatively predictive logical model that expresses it more precisely. A ...
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The more important levels have fewer positions, and the share of minorities goes down. The law of minority attrition is a quantitatively predictive logical model that expresses it more precisely. A party with a small share of seats gets an even smaller share of seats, and the precise figure depends on assembly size and the total number of voters. The law of minority attrition might also help determine which part of the ‘rubber ceiling’ on women's advancement is natural and which part is socially imposed.Less
The more important levels have fewer positions, and the share of minorities goes down. The law of minority attrition is a quantitatively predictive logical model that expresses it more precisely. A party with a small share of seats gets an even smaller share of seats, and the precise figure depends on assembly size and the total number of voters. The law of minority attrition might also help determine which part of the ‘rubber ceiling’ on women's advancement is natural and which part is socially imposed.
Jan E. Leighley and Jonathan Nagler
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159348
- eISBN:
- 9781400848621
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159348.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
This book compares the demographic characteristics and political views of voters and non-voters in U.S. presidential elections since 1972 and examines how electoral reforms and the choices offered by ...
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This book compares the demographic characteristics and political views of voters and non-voters in U.S. presidential elections since 1972 and examines how electoral reforms and the choices offered by candidates influence voter turnout. Drawing on a wealth of data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and the American National Election Studies, the book demonstrates that the rich have consistently voted more than the poor for the past four decades, and that voters are substantially more conservative in their economic views than non-voters. The book finds that women are now more likely to vote than men, that the gap in voting rates between blacks and whites has largely disappeared, and that older Americans continue to vote more than younger Americans. The book also shows how electoral reforms such as Election Day voter registration and absentee voting have boosted voter turnout, and how turnout would also rise if parties offered more distinct choices. Providing the most systematic analysis available of modern voter turnout, this book reveals that persistent class bias in turnout has enduring political consequences, and that it really does matter who votes and who doesn't.Less
This book compares the demographic characteristics and political views of voters and non-voters in U.S. presidential elections since 1972 and examines how electoral reforms and the choices offered by candidates influence voter turnout. Drawing on a wealth of data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and the American National Election Studies, the book demonstrates that the rich have consistently voted more than the poor for the past four decades, and that voters are substantially more conservative in their economic views than non-voters. The book finds that women are now more likely to vote than men, that the gap in voting rates between blacks and whites has largely disappeared, and that older Americans continue to vote more than younger Americans. The book also shows how electoral reforms such as Election Day voter registration and absentee voting have boosted voter turnout, and how turnout would also rise if parties offered more distinct choices. Providing the most systematic analysis available of modern voter turnout, this book reveals that persistent class bias in turnout has enduring political consequences, and that it really does matter who votes and who doesn't.
David M. Farrell and Roger Scully
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780199285020
- eISBN:
- 9780191713651
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199285020.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter explores public attitudes towards representation in the EU. A review of existing evidence about public attitudes to the EU and the integration process suggests not only widespread public ...
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This chapter explores public attitudes towards representation in the EU. A review of existing evidence about public attitudes to the EU and the integration process suggests not only widespread public ignorance about the EU, but also growing levels of public suspicion and hostility in recent years. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, it is argued that notwithstanding their low levels of knowledge about the EP, voters across the EU seem to have reasonably clear and common preferences as to what they want from their European-level representatives. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of these findings for the chapters to follow.Less
This chapter explores public attitudes towards representation in the EU. A review of existing evidence about public attitudes to the EU and the integration process suggests not only widespread public ignorance about the EU, but also growing levels of public suspicion and hostility in recent years. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, it is argued that notwithstanding their low levels of knowledge about the EP, voters across the EU seem to have reasonably clear and common preferences as to what they want from their European-level representatives. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of these findings for the chapters to follow.
Jonathan Bendor, Daniel Diermeier, David A. Siegel, and Michael M. Ting
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691135076
- eISBN:
- 9781400836802
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691135076.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The ...
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Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.Less
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.
Andrew Hindmoor
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- January 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273140
- eISBN:
- 9780191601897
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273146.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
The median voter theorem states that political parties will move to the electoral centre to maximise their vote. This theorem has been routinely linked to Downs and An Economic Theory of Democracy. ...
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The median voter theorem states that political parties will move to the electoral centre to maximise their vote. This theorem has been routinely linked to Downs and An Economic Theory of Democracy. It is argued that Downs’ determination to develop a theory to predict party behaviour has led him to develop a spatial framework in a misleading way. It is further argued that the electoral centre can be on the political right, left, or centre.Less
The median voter theorem states that political parties will move to the electoral centre to maximise their vote. This theorem has been routinely linked to Downs and An Economic Theory of Democracy. It is argued that Downs’ determination to develop a theory to predict party behaviour has led him to develop a spatial framework in a misleading way. It is further argued that the electoral centre can be on the political right, left, or centre.
Stefano Bartolini
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199286430
- eISBN:
- 9780191603242
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199286434.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
This chapter investigates the electoral representation of the integration issues, assuming that the shift in the location of institutional power related to European integration may be accompanied by ...
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This chapter investigates the electoral representation of the integration issues, assuming that the shift in the location of institutional power related to European integration may be accompanied by a corresponding change in the direction of the efforts of mass politics. It documents the extent to which European issues differentiate the attitudes of voters and parties alike. It argues that the attitudes of national and European parties, of political elites, and public opinion towards the constitutive issues of integration are hard to interpret, referring to historical cleavages or to a left-right dimension. It interprets the Europarties development as a top-down attempt by political elites to institutionalize an isomorphic party system at the EU level that tends to select those nation-like issues on which a structuring easier. It discusses the strong collusive push of both national and European parties towards constitutive EU issues in which their divisions appear insurmountable and would undermine their effective existence. The current situation witnesses an imbalance between the lack of party system structuring at the EU level and the growing potential for party system destructuring at the national level. If EU-related latent oppositions were to be politicized, the resulting alignments will not closely correspond with the political divisions on which domestic politics has traditionally been founded.Less
This chapter investigates the electoral representation of the integration issues, assuming that the shift in the location of institutional power related to European integration may be accompanied by a corresponding change in the direction of the efforts of mass politics. It documents the extent to which European issues differentiate the attitudes of voters and parties alike. It argues that the attitudes of national and European parties, of political elites, and public opinion towards the constitutive issues of integration are hard to interpret, referring to historical cleavages or to a left-right dimension. It interprets the Europarties development as a top-down attempt by political elites to institutionalize an isomorphic party system at the EU level that tends to select those nation-like issues on which a structuring easier. It discusses the strong collusive push of both national and European parties towards constitutive EU issues in which their divisions appear insurmountable and would undermine their effective existence. The current situation witnesses an imbalance between the lack of party system structuring at the EU level and the growing potential for party system destructuring at the national level. If EU-related latent oppositions were to be politicized, the resulting alignments will not closely correspond with the political divisions on which domestic politics has traditionally been founded.
Michael D. McDonald and Ian Budge
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199286720
- eISBN:
- 9780191603327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199286728.003.0011
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Political variables (median voter and median parliamentary, government and ministry positions) change more radically and more quickly than policy outputs. This accounts for the lack of relationships ...
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Political variables (median voter and median parliamentary, government and ministry positions) change more radically and more quickly than policy outputs. This accounts for the lack of relationships previous studies have failed to find as we did, too, in chapters 8 and 9, between political changes and policy. However, political forces oscillate round stable equilibrium positions, which show a strong relationship to the policy regimes’ equilibria previously uncovered. In the long term, the responsiveness of the median parliamentary position to the median voter position is high, as is government position to MPP, and ministries to government position.Less
Political variables (median voter and median parliamentary, government and ministry positions) change more radically and more quickly than policy outputs. This accounts for the lack of relationships previous studies have failed to find as we did, too, in chapters 8 and 9, between political changes and policy. However, political forces oscillate round stable equilibrium positions, which show a strong relationship to the policy regimes’ equilibria previously uncovered. In the long term, the responsiveness of the median parliamentary position to the median voter position is high, as is government position to MPP, and ministries to government position.
Michael D. McDonald and Ian Budge
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199286720
- eISBN:
- 9780191603327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199286728.003.0012
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter clinches the previous analysis by linking equilibria on both sides, (politics and policy) showing that they correspond closely. Broadly speaking, political preferences are transmitted ...
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This chapter clinches the previous analysis by linking equilibria on both sides, (politics and policy) showing that they correspond closely. Broadly speaking, political preferences are transmitted from median voter to median parliamentary party, from that to government, and then to ministries in the sequence postulated by the median mandate. This implies that under the froth and change of politics, certain stable processes continue, and these are in conformity with a median mandate interpretation of democratic processes.Less
This chapter clinches the previous analysis by linking equilibria on both sides, (politics and policy) showing that they correspond closely. Broadly speaking, political preferences are transmitted from median voter to median parliamentary party, from that to government, and then to ministries in the sequence postulated by the median mandate. This implies that under the froth and change of politics, certain stable processes continue, and these are in conformity with a median mandate interpretation of democratic processes.
Michael D. McDonald and Ian Budge
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199286720
- eISBN:
- 9780191603327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199286728.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The argument of Chapter One is spelled out in more detail in terms of propositional tables and accompanying discussion. These show the considerable overlap in the conditions for any mandate to exist, ...
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The argument of Chapter One is spelled out in more detail in terms of propositional tables and accompanying discussion. These show the considerable overlap in the conditions for any mandate to exist, and the fact that the Government Mandate is a special case of the Median Mandate. The tables on voting and governments show that spontaneous majorities, essential to the Government Mandate, rarely form, while correspondences between median voter and median party in Parliament are quite common (three quarters of all governments).Less
The argument of Chapter One is spelled out in more detail in terms of propositional tables and accompanying discussion. These show the considerable overlap in the conditions for any mandate to exist, and the fact that the Government Mandate is a special case of the Median Mandate. The tables on voting and governments show that spontaneous majorities, essential to the Government Mandate, rarely form, while correspondences between median voter and median party in Parliament are quite common (three quarters of all governments).
Michael D. McDonald and Ian Budge
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199286720
- eISBN:
- 9780191603327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199286728.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
For democracy to work, politicians and electors have to see the world in the same party–related terms. Evidence is cited from both surveys and party programmes to show this must be the Left–Right ...
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For democracy to work, politicians and electors have to see the world in the same party–related terms. Evidence is cited from both surveys and party programmes to show this must be the Left–Right dimension. However, issues get squeezed into this only during and round about elections. In inter–election periods, ministerial and procedural structures may well divide political issues up into separable domains, raising the possibility that different parliamentary medians exist, depending on the subject under discussion. This possibility has to be built into our research design.Less
For democracy to work, politicians and electors have to see the world in the same party–related terms. Evidence is cited from both surveys and party programmes to show this must be the Left–Right dimension. However, issues get squeezed into this only during and round about elections. In inter–election periods, ministerial and procedural structures may well divide political issues up into separable domains, raising the possibility that different parliamentary medians exist, depending on the subject under discussion. This possibility has to be built into our research design.
Michael D. McDonald and Ian Budge
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199286720
- eISBN:
- 9780191603327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199286728.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter describes the data and the way thse are deployed operationally in the subsequent analysis. The data falls into three main categories: aggregate voting results for post-war national ...
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This chapter describes the data and the way thse are deployed operationally in the subsequent analysis. The data falls into three main categories: aggregate voting results for post-war national elections over 21 democracies with the resulting distribution of seats in parliaments and places in cabinets; policy preferences stated by all significant parties in each election in their published policy programme (their manifesto or platform); party policy preferences can also be weighted if they are in government by their share of cabinet seats. The research questions asked with these data are how far policy outputs compare with preferences on an election-to-election and government-to-government basis. More importantly, how policy relationships evolve over time canbe examined, and equilibria both for policy and preferences can be established and compared.Less
This chapter describes the data and the way thse are deployed operationally in the subsequent analysis. The data falls into three main categories: aggregate voting results for post-war national elections over 21 democracies with the resulting distribution of seats in parliaments and places in cabinets; policy preferences stated by all significant parties in each election in their published policy programme (their manifesto or platform); party policy preferences can also be weighted if they are in government by their share of cabinet seats. The research questions asked with these data are how far policy outputs compare with preferences on an election-to-election and government-to-government basis. More importantly, how policy relationships evolve over time canbe examined, and equilibria both for policy and preferences can be established and compared.
Michael D. McDonald and Ian Budge
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199286720
- eISBN:
- 9780191603327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199286728.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The government mandate in its full form fails descriptively because few spontaneous majorities form in support of one party, and there is no guarantee that the plurality party is not actually opposed ...
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The government mandate in its full form fails descriptively because few spontaneous majorities form in support of one party, and there is no guarantee that the plurality party is not actually opposed by most electors. A minimal version might still apply however in terms of retrospective voting — a majority might still vote against a government. This idea has been particularly prominent in the economic voting literature, This chapter examines the evidence for ‘economic’ voting. It confirms previous comparative research by showing there is only limited evidence of consistent effects from growth, unemployment and inflation on voting. This is explained in terms of electoral reactions to any set of economic conditions never being undifferentiated or unproblematic. As there is always some rational argument for voting against incumbents some electors will always do so, accounting for a general fall of incumbent votes towards their long term norm. Median voter positions are not predictable from the state of the economy, but they do match government positions over the long term and indeed provide the equilibrium towards which government policy tends.Less
The government mandate in its full form fails descriptively because few spontaneous majorities form in support of one party, and there is no guarantee that the plurality party is not actually opposed by most electors. A minimal version might still apply however in terms of retrospective voting — a majority might still vote against a government. This idea has been particularly prominent in the economic voting literature, This chapter examines the evidence for ‘economic’ voting. It confirms previous comparative research by showing there is only limited evidence of consistent effects from growth, unemployment and inflation on voting. This is explained in terms of electoral reactions to any set of economic conditions never being undifferentiated or unproblematic. As there is always some rational argument for voting against incumbents some electors will always do so, accounting for a general fall of incumbent votes towards their long term norm. Median voter positions are not predictable from the state of the economy, but they do match government positions over the long term and indeed provide the equilibrium towards which government policy tends.
