Dieter Nohlen, Bernard Thibaut, and Michael Krennerich (eds)
- Published in print:
- 1999
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198296454
- eISBN:
- 9780191600036
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198296452.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Reference
Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of ...
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Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of post‐independence African politics and have assumed the utmost importance in the course of recent democratization processes. However, comparative research on political development in Africa lacks reliable electoral data. Elections in Africa fills this gap. Following the overall structure of the series, an initial comparative introduction on elections and electoral systems is followed by chapters on each state of the region. These contributions examine the evolution of institutional and electoral arrangements from independence to the present (1999), and provide systematic surveys of the up‐to‐date electoral provisions and their historical development. Exhaustive statistics on national elections (presidential, parliamentary, and constitutional assembly), referendums and coups d’état are included within each chapter; these cover electoral bodies and voting, electoral participation of parties and alliances, vote distribution, parliamentary composition, and power holders. The data are presented in the same systematic manner for all countries in order to provide electoral statistics in line with internationally established standards of documentation, so that the data can be easily compared. The book, therefore, provides a definitive and comprehensive set of data on elections in order to facilitate comparative research. Together with the other books of this series, Elections in Africa is a highly reliable resource for historical and cross‐national comparisons of elections and electoral systems worldwide.Less
Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of post‐independence African politics and have assumed the utmost importance in the course of recent democratization processes. However, comparative research on political development in Africa lacks reliable electoral data. Elections in Africa fills this gap. Following the overall structure of the series, an initial comparative introduction on elections and electoral systems is followed by chapters on each state of the region. These contributions examine the evolution of institutional and electoral arrangements from independence to the present (1999), and provide systematic surveys of the up‐to‐date electoral provisions and their historical development. Exhaustive statistics on national elections (presidential, parliamentary, and constitutional assembly), referendums and coups d’état are included within each chapter; these cover electoral bodies and voting, electoral participation of parties and alliances, vote distribution, parliamentary composition, and power holders. The data are presented in the same systematic manner for all countries in order to provide electoral statistics in line with internationally established standards of documentation, so that the data can be easily compared. The book, therefore, provides a definitive and comprehensive set of data on elections in order to facilitate comparative research. Together with the other books of this series, Elections in Africa is a highly reliable resource for historical and cross‐national comparisons of elections and electoral systems worldwide.
Kees Aarts and Bernhard Wessels
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- October 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273218
- eISBN:
- 9780191602962
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273219.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
According to modernisation theory, electoral participation should become less important in modern democracies. “Modern” citizens feel more capable of handling their own political affairs, thus they ...
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According to modernisation theory, electoral participation should become less important in modern democracies. “Modern” citizens feel more capable of handling their own political affairs, thus they will decide for themselves when and how to get involved in political action, and consequentially will not automatically cast their vote. This view has in recent years often been rephrased into the expectation that electoral turnout in Western societies will decrease. However, this expectation is at odds with current knowledge about the development of the most important individual characteristic associated with electoral participation — i.e. the level of education — thus giving rise to a “puzzle of turnout”. This chapter addresses the turnout puzzle and provides an alternative explanation of varying turnout figures: the political context of the election. The political context (polarisation, degree of alienation and of indifference) is shown to account for trends and fluctuations in turnout in the six European democracies for up to 40 years.Less
According to modernisation theory, electoral participation should become less important in modern democracies. “Modern” citizens feel more capable of handling their own political affairs, thus they will decide for themselves when and how to get involved in political action, and consequentially will not automatically cast their vote. This view has in recent years often been rephrased into the expectation that electoral turnout in Western societies will decrease. However, this expectation is at odds with current knowledge about the development of the most important individual characteristic associated with electoral participation — i.e. the level of education — thus giving rise to a “puzzle of turnout”. This chapter addresses the turnout puzzle and provides an alternative explanation of varying turnout figures: the political context of the election. The political context (polarisation, degree of alienation and of indifference) is shown to account for trends and fluctuations in turnout in the six European democracies for up to 40 years.
Jacques Thomassen
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- October 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273218
- eISBN:
- 9780191602962
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273219.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The purpose of this book is to describe and explain the changes in electoral behaviour that occurred in six West-European countries in the second half of the twentieth century. Two alternative ...
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The purpose of this book is to describe and explain the changes in electoral behaviour that occurred in six West-European countries in the second half of the twentieth century. Two alternative theoretical approaches are systematically tested in an attempt to explain these changes. The first approach is deduced from modernisation theory. Modernisation theory implies that over time, the explanatory power for electoral behaviour of more or less stable structural variables such as social class and religion will yield to more short-term factors. The second and alternative theoretical approach predicts that changes and variations in patterns of voting behaviour are not due to secular processes in voting behaviour, but to variations in the political-institutional context, both between countries and within countries between different elections. In contrast to much of the authoritative literature, chapter after chapter of this book shows that there is little empirical evidence supporting modernization theory. Electoral behaviour is primarily political behaviour that is shaped by the political context of elections as much as by autonomous processes in society. In this respect, not much has changed during the period covered. The political context was never irrelevant for voting behaviour. No matter how divided a society is in terms of religion and/or social class, as long as these differences are not politicised, voters cannot be mobilised on this basis. Also, if voters do not see the policy differences between the political parties competing for their votes — as was increasingly the case in the second half of the 1980s and the 1990s in some of the countries in this study — one should not be surprised to find low correlations between voters’ policy preferences and their party choice.Less
The purpose of this book is to describe and explain the changes in electoral behaviour that occurred in six West-European countries in the second half of the twentieth century. Two alternative theoretical approaches are systematically tested in an attempt to explain these changes. The first approach is deduced from modernisation theory. Modernisation theory implies that over time, the explanatory power for electoral behaviour of more or less stable structural variables such as social class and religion will yield to more short-term factors. The second and alternative theoretical approach predicts that changes and variations in patterns of voting behaviour are not due to secular processes in voting behaviour, but to variations in the political-institutional context, both between countries and within countries between different elections. In contrast to much of the authoritative literature, chapter after chapter of this book shows that there is little empirical evidence supporting modernization theory. Electoral behaviour is primarily political behaviour that is shaped by the political context of elections as much as by autonomous processes in society. In this respect, not much has changed during the period covered. The political context was never irrelevant for voting behaviour. No matter how divided a society is in terms of religion and/or social class, as long as these differences are not politicised, voters cannot be mobilised on this basis. Also, if voters do not see the policy differences between the political parties competing for their votes — as was increasingly the case in the second half of the 1980s and the 1990s in some of the countries in this study — one should not be surprised to find low correlations between voters’ policy preferences and their party choice.
Jacques Thomassen
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- October 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273218
- eISBN:
- 9780191602962
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273219.003.0011
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter summarises the discussions on the development of patterns of voting behaviour in European countries, and the validity of the two alternative theoretical approaches to explaining the ...
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This chapter summarises the discussions on the development of patterns of voting behaviour in European countries, and the validity of the two alternative theoretical approaches to explaining the changes in electoral behaviour. The analyses will be done separately for the two successive decisions voters have to make at election time. First, the decision on whether they will vote at all, and second, which party of candidate they will vote for.Less
This chapter summarises the discussions on the development of patterns of voting behaviour in European countries, and the validity of the two alternative theoretical approaches to explaining the changes in electoral behaviour. The analyses will be done separately for the two successive decisions voters have to make at election time. First, the decision on whether they will vote at all, and second, which party of candidate they will vote for.
Jonathan Bendor, Daniel Diermeier, David A. Siegel, and Michael M. Ting
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691135076
- eISBN:
- 9781400836802
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691135076.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The ...
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Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.Less
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
This book sets out to analyse the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and the problem of participation in European Parliament elections. It begins by examining the ...
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This book sets out to analyse the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and the problem of participation in European Parliament elections. It begins by examining the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance, by briefly reviewing approaches to the study of turnout, including the approach embodied in the second‐order‐election model, and by describing the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1, (1994)) on which the study is based. The book summarizes the trends in turnout in European Parliament elections and makes a key distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention. This is followed by a series of chapters dealing with attitudes to European integration, the European Parliament, and European elections, each chapter concluding with a bivariate analysis of the relationship between such attitudes and participation/abstention in European Parliament elections. The trends in attitudes and in turnout are also considered on a country‐by‐country basis. The book then presents a multivariate analysis of various types of abstention and concludes that some, but not all, of the contextual variables usually thought to affect abstention do have a substantial impact; that the individual characteristic with the most consistent effect on abstention is age, social class and educational effects being modest; that, contrary to the findings of previous research, attitudes to the European Union do have significant effects on abstention; that the second‐order explanation of abstention in European Parliament elections is not supported by the evidence; and that active exposure to the campaign significantly reduces voluntary Euro‐specific abstention. Interpretation of the implications of these findings focuses on the distinction between the facilitation and the mobilization of electoral participation. In terms of facilitating participation in European Parliament elections, the book concludes that turnout could be increased by addressing the problem of the day of the week on which voting takes place, the problems of registration and use of voting cards that arise in certain countries, and problems arising from the timing of the elections in mid‐June. In terms of mobilizing participation in European elections, the book concludes that, rather than relying on the kind of transformational institutional change that would see European Parliament elections providing a mandate to govern Europe, what is needed is a series of piecemeal and specific approaches. Effective mobilization of voters in European Parliament elections will require painstaking efforts to inform European citizens and persuade them of the value of the process of European governance, and of the significance of the European‐level issues involved. Voter mobilization is enhanced by active exposure to the campaign but it will also require a strengthening of the image of the Parliament in the minds of the citizens and, through higher‐profile activity by MEPs during inter‐election periods, an improvement in people's perceptions of the capacity of the Parliament to look after the interests of the citizens.Less
This book sets out to analyse the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and the problem of participation in European Parliament elections. It begins by examining the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance, by briefly reviewing approaches to the study of turnout, including the approach embodied in the second‐order‐election model, and by describing the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1, (1994)) on which the study is based. The book summarizes the trends in turnout in European Parliament elections and makes a key distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention. This is followed by a series of chapters dealing with attitudes to European integration, the European Parliament, and European elections, each chapter concluding with a bivariate analysis of the relationship between such attitudes and participation/abstention in European Parliament elections. The trends in attitudes and in turnout are also considered on a country‐by‐country basis. The book then presents a multivariate analysis of various types of abstention and concludes that some, but not all, of the contextual variables usually thought to affect abstention do have a substantial impact; that the individual characteristic with the most consistent effect on abstention is age, social class and educational effects being modest; that, contrary to the findings of previous research, attitudes to the European Union do have significant effects on abstention; that the second‐order explanation of abstention in European Parliament elections is not supported by the evidence; and that active exposure to the campaign significantly reduces voluntary Euro‐specific abstention. Interpretation of the implications of these findings focuses on the distinction between the facilitation and the mobilization of electoral participation. In terms of facilitating participation in European Parliament elections, the book concludes that turnout could be increased by addressing the problem of the day of the week on which voting takes place, the problems of registration and use of voting cards that arise in certain countries, and problems arising from the timing of the elections in mid‐June. In terms of mobilizing participation in European elections, the book concludes that, rather than relying on the kind of transformational institutional change that would see European Parliament elections providing a mandate to govern Europe, what is needed is a series of piecemeal and specific approaches. Effective mobilization of voters in European Parliament elections will require painstaking efforts to inform European citizens and persuade them of the value of the process of European governance, and of the significance of the European‐level issues involved. Voter mobilization is enhanced by active exposure to the campaign but it will also require a strengthening of the image of the Parliament in the minds of the citizens and, through higher‐profile activity by MEPs during inter‐election periods, an improvement in people's perceptions of the capacity of the Parliament to look after the interests of the citizens.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Political Choice in Britain uses data from the 1964 to 2001 British election studies (BES), 1992 to 2002 monthly Gallup polls, and numerous other national surveys conducted over the past ...
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Political Choice in Britain uses data from the 1964 to 2001 British election studies (BES), 1992 to 2002 monthly Gallup polls, and numerous other national surveys conducted over the past four decades to test the explanatory power of rival sociological and individual rationality models of electoral turnout and party choice. Analyses endorse a valence politics model that challenges the long-dominant social class model. British voters make their choices by evaluating the performance of parties and party leaders in economic and other important policy areas. Although these evaluations may be largely products of events that occur long before an election campaign officially begins, parties’ national and local campaign activities are also influential. Consistent with the valence politics model, partisan attachments display individual- and aggregate-level dynamics that reflect ongoing judgements about the managerial abilities of parties and their leaders. A general incentives model provides the best explanation of turnout. Calculations of the costs and influence-discounted benefits of voting and sense of civic duty are key variables in this model. Significantly, the decline in turnout in recent elections does not reflect more general negative trends in public attitudes about the political system. Voters judge the performance of British democracy in much the same way as they evaluate its parties and politicians. Support at all levels of the political system is a renewable resource, but one that must be renewed.Less
Political Choice in Britain uses data from the 1964 to 2001 British election studies (BES), 1992 to 2002 monthly Gallup polls, and numerous other national surveys conducted over the past four decades to test the explanatory power of rival sociological and individual rationality models of electoral turnout and party choice. Analyses endorse a valence politics model that challenges the long-dominant social class model. British voters make their choices by evaluating the performance of parties and party leaders in economic and other important policy areas. Although these evaluations may be largely products of events that occur long before an election campaign officially begins, parties’ national and local campaign activities are also influential. Consistent with the valence politics model, partisan attachments display individual- and aggregate-level dynamics that reflect ongoing judgements about the managerial abilities of parties and their leaders. A general incentives model provides the best explanation of turnout. Calculations of the costs and influence-discounted benefits of voting and sense of civic duty are key variables in this model. Significantly, the decline in turnout in recent elections does not reflect more general negative trends in public attitudes about the political system. Voters judge the performance of British democracy in much the same way as they evaluate its parties and politicians. Support at all levels of the political system is a renewable resource, but one that must be renewed.
Margit Tavits
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- January 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199553327
- eISBN:
- 9780191721007
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199553327.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This book is about presidents in parliamentary systems. One commonly recurring political debate within parliamentary systems is over whether or not the public should directly elect the head of state. ...
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This book is about presidents in parliamentary systems. One commonly recurring political debate within parliamentary systems is over whether or not the public should directly elect the head of state. Despite the importance of this topic in practical politics, political scientists have offered little empirical evidence yet made bold assumptions about the consequences of popular elections for heads of state. A common argument is that direct elections enhance presidents' legitimacy thereby increasing their activism and encouraging authoritarian tendencies. Another popular assumption is that direct presidential elections are more heavily contested and partisan, polarizing, and dividing political elites and the electorate. Proponents of direct elections argue that such elections will help decrease voter alienation and apathy. This book challenges the conventional wisdom. Using both quantitative and qualitative empirical evidence from democratic systems across the world, this book demonstrates that compared to indirect selection methods, direct elections do not yield more active and contentious presidents, do not polarize political elites or society, and do not remedy political apathy. Rather, presidential activism in both “semi-presidential” and “pure parliamentary” systems is shaped by political opportunity framework—the institutional strength and partisan composition of both parliament and government. Further, because holding the presidency provides parties with an electoral asset, direct and indirect presidential elections can be equally contentious and polarizing. Last, but not least, rather than decreasing apathy, direct election is associated with increased voter fatigue and decreased turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points.Less
This book is about presidents in parliamentary systems. One commonly recurring political debate within parliamentary systems is over whether or not the public should directly elect the head of state. Despite the importance of this topic in practical politics, political scientists have offered little empirical evidence yet made bold assumptions about the consequences of popular elections for heads of state. A common argument is that direct elections enhance presidents' legitimacy thereby increasing their activism and encouraging authoritarian tendencies. Another popular assumption is that direct presidential elections are more heavily contested and partisan, polarizing, and dividing political elites and the electorate. Proponents of direct elections argue that such elections will help decrease voter alienation and apathy. This book challenges the conventional wisdom. Using both quantitative and qualitative empirical evidence from democratic systems across the world, this book demonstrates that compared to indirect selection methods, direct elections do not yield more active and contentious presidents, do not polarize political elites or society, and do not remedy political apathy. Rather, presidential activism in both “semi-presidential” and “pure parliamentary” systems is shaped by political opportunity framework—the institutional strength and partisan composition of both parliament and government. Further, because holding the presidency provides parties with an electoral asset, direct and indirect presidential elections can be equally contentious and polarizing. Last, but not least, rather than decreasing apathy, direct election is associated with increased voter fatigue and decreased turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points.
Margit Tavits
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- January 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199553327
- eISBN:
- 9780191721007
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199553327.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples ...
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Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples of parliamentary systems with elected heads of state demonstrate that citizens' satisfaction with government, political disillusionment, their commitment to democratic values and level of political involvement are not significantly affected by introducing direct presidential elections. In fact, the additional election increases voter fatigue and decreases turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points. Since direct presidential elections are no more likely to decrease citizen disillusionment with the government and strengthen democratic practices than indirect elections, this chapter concludes that these systems have indistinguishable effects on democratic attitudes. The noticeable effect of introducing additional elections on voter behavior, however, merits the attention of institutional designers.Less
Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples of parliamentary systems with elected heads of state demonstrate that citizens' satisfaction with government, political disillusionment, their commitment to democratic values and level of political involvement are not significantly affected by introducing direct presidential elections. In fact, the additional election increases voter fatigue and decreases turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points. Since direct presidential elections are no more likely to decrease citizen disillusionment with the government and strengthen democratic practices than indirect elections, this chapter concludes that these systems have indistinguishable effects on democratic attitudes. The noticeable effect of introducing additional elections on voter behavior, however, merits the attention of institutional designers.
Bernard Grofman
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198294719
- eISBN:
- 9780191599361
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198294719.003.0030
- Subject:
- Political Science, Reference
Defends Down's three main arguments in An Economic Theory of Democracy. These three arguments relate to the costs associated with voting and rational non‐voting, party competition costs of attempting ...
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Defends Down's three main arguments in An Economic Theory of Democracy. These three arguments relate to the costs associated with voting and rational non‐voting, party competition costs of attempting to attract votes away from the median voter, and the costs associated with obtaining political knowledge. These arguments can be maintained if we do not overestimate what we can expect from a theory, and consequently the contribution of rational choice and of Downs should not be minimized.Less
Defends Down's three main arguments in An Economic Theory of Democracy. These three arguments relate to the costs associated with voting and rational non‐voting, party competition costs of attempting to attract votes away from the median voter, and the costs associated with obtaining political knowledge. These arguments can be maintained if we do not overestimate what we can expect from a theory, and consequently the contribution of rational choice and of Downs should not be minimized.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.003.0010
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Restates the argument that British electoral politics over the past 40 years can be best understood using a valence politics model. The three major predictors of electoral choice–leadership images, ...
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Restates the argument that British electoral politics over the past 40 years can be best understood using a valence politics model. The three major predictors of electoral choice–leadership images, partisanship, and evaluations of economic performance–are key elements of the valence model. Analyses of turnout demonstrate the explanatory power of cost-benefit calculations that are augmented by assessments of overall benefits to the political system in general–which are elements of the general incentives model. Beyond electoral participation, satisfaction with the democratic process itself depends primarily on assessments of institutional and policy performance–that is, on valence judgements. The individual rationality framework and, in particular, its valence politics model, provide powerful analytic leverage for explaining political choice in Britain.Less
Restates the argument that British electoral politics over the past 40 years can be best understood using a valence politics model. The three major predictors of electoral choice–leadership images, partisanship, and evaluations of economic performance–are key elements of the valence model. Analyses of turnout demonstrate the explanatory power of cost-benefit calculations that are augmented by assessments of overall benefits to the political system in general–which are elements of the general incentives model. Beyond electoral participation, satisfaction with the democratic process itself depends primarily on assessments of institutional and policy performance–that is, on valence judgements. The individual rationality framework and, in particular, its valence politics model, provide powerful analytic leverage for explaining political choice in Britain.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Introduces the principal questions–why British citizens vote, why they make the party choices that they do, to what extent do they engage with the political process beyond participation in elections, ...
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Introduces the principal questions–why British citizens vote, why they make the party choices that they do, to what extent do they engage with the political process beyond participation in elections, and what does the pattern of engagement over the last four decades tell us about the health of contemporary British democracy–that structure the analyses in various chapters. Chapter 1 also presents an overview of the two major competing theoretical frameworks, the sociological and individual-rationality frameworks, and various specific models located in these frameworks, which are used to answer these questions. The 2001 BES data set and various other data sets employed in the analyses are described, and the content of the several chapters that follow is summarized.Less
Introduces the principal questions–why British citizens vote, why they make the party choices that they do, to what extent do they engage with the political process beyond participation in elections, and what does the pattern of engagement over the last four decades tell us about the health of contemporary British democracy–that structure the analyses in various chapters. Chapter 1 also presents an overview of the two major competing theoretical frameworks, the sociological and individual-rationality frameworks, and various specific models located in these frameworks, which are used to answer these questions. The 2001 BES data set and various other data sets employed in the analyses are described, and the content of the several chapters that follow is summarized.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Considers the impact of the 2001 election campaign. Contrary to what is commonly assumed about the function of election campaigns, data from the 2001 BES rolling campaign panel survey show that the ...
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Considers the impact of the 2001 election campaign. Contrary to what is commonly assumed about the function of election campaigns, data from the 2001 BES rolling campaign panel survey show that the 2001 campaign did little to mobilize political interest or partisanship. However, the local campaigns, conducted by party activists, contributed significantly to turnout and party choice. Analyses also indicate that tactical voting typically did not occur spontaneously but, rather, was driven by Liberal Democrat grassroots campaigning. More generally, campaigning by all of the major parties affected the vote shares that they received.Less
Considers the impact of the 2001 election campaign. Contrary to what is commonly assumed about the function of election campaigns, data from the 2001 BES rolling campaign panel survey show that the 2001 campaign did little to mobilize political interest or partisanship. However, the local campaigns, conducted by party activists, contributed significantly to turnout and party choice. Analyses also indicate that tactical voting typically did not occur spontaneously but, rather, was driven by Liberal Democrat grassroots campaigning. More generally, campaigning by all of the major parties affected the vote shares that they received.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Uses confirmatory factor analysis to locate electoral participation in a broader matrix of political activities, and presents alternative theoretical models that might be used to explain the decline ...
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Uses confirmatory factor analysis to locate electoral participation in a broader matrix of political activities, and presents alternative theoretical models that might be used to explain the decline in electoral turnout in Britain and other mature democracies. The relative deprivation or equity-fairness model stresses the gap between what an individual expects and what s/he gets out of life. The civic voluntarism model focuses on the resources that individuals bring to bear on the decision to vote or not and the mobilization efforts that are made by other actors. The social capital model emphasizes social trust and the individual’s involvement with social organizations. The cognitive mobilization model highlights the role of political interest, political knowledge, and media usage. Finally, the general incentives model supplements a broadly defined Downsian-style cost-benefit analysis with variables that take account of a variety of other incentives, such as ‘doing one’s democratic duty’.Less
Uses confirmatory factor analysis to locate electoral participation in a broader matrix of political activities, and presents alternative theoretical models that might be used to explain the decline in electoral turnout in Britain and other mature democracies. The relative deprivation or equity-fairness model stresses the gap between what an individual expects and what s/he gets out of life. The civic voluntarism model focuses on the resources that individuals bring to bear on the decision to vote or not and the mobilization efforts that are made by other actors. The social capital model emphasizes social trust and the individual’s involvement with social organizations. The cognitive mobilization model highlights the role of political interest, political knowledge, and media usage. Finally, the general incentives model supplements a broadly defined Downsian-style cost-benefit analysis with variables that take account of a variety of other incentives, such as ‘doing one’s democratic duty’.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.003.0008
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
First tests rival models of voting turnout using data drawn from the 2001 BES pre- and post-election surveys. Analyses reveal that the general incentives model performs best. Crucial individual-level ...
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First tests rival models of voting turnout using data drawn from the 2001 BES pre- and post-election surveys. Analyses reveal that the general incentives model performs best. Crucial individual-level influences on electoral turnout are calculations of efficacy-discounted benefits and costs of participation, sense of civic duty, and age. A model of the aggregate-level dynamics of turnout between 1945 and 2001 indicate a substantial portion of the sharp decline in turnout that occurred in the 1997 and 2001 general elections was caused by the one-sided nature of the contests, coupled with the perception that the two major parties did not offer a distinctive menu of policy choices. Analyses suggest that the strong relationship between age and civic duty has a sizeable generational component.Less
First tests rival models of voting turnout using data drawn from the 2001 BES pre- and post-election surveys. Analyses reveal that the general incentives model performs best. Crucial individual-level influences on electoral turnout are calculations of efficacy-discounted benefits and costs of participation, sense of civic duty, and age. A model of the aggregate-level dynamics of turnout between 1945 and 2001 indicate a substantial portion of the sharp decline in turnout that occurred in the 1997 and 2001 general elections was caused by the one-sided nature of the contests, coupled with the perception that the two major parties did not offer a distinctive menu of policy choices. Analyses suggest that the strong relationship between age and civic duty has a sizeable generational component.
Andrew Reynolds
- Published in print:
- 1999
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295105
- eISBN:
- 9780191600128
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295103.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Democratization
This is the first of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book. It qualitatively and ...
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This is the first of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book. It qualitatively and quantitatively assesses the trajectory of the five case studies along the lines of their political stability, ethnic accommodation, and the long-term prospects for democratic accommodation. In attempting to find useful indicators of the trajectory of democratization in each of the five country case studies, six possible approaches are considered: political violence (the measurement of politically related deaths), economic indicators, political and societal indicators (political rights and civil liberties; media freedom and influence), electoral indicators (turnout; spoilt ballots), and ethnic accommodation (worsening ethnic and interregional relations, as exemplified by Zambia and Malawi; improving ethnic relations, as exemplified by Namibia and South Africa; and ethnic relations with an uncertain trajectory, as exemplified by Zimbabwe). Eight institutional indices of democratization are chosen from these: ethnic accommodation, political violence, economic performance, civil liberties, political rights, free media, electoral turnout, and spoilt ballots. The findings on these indicators for each case study are summarised in a table.Less
This is the first of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book. It qualitatively and quantitatively assesses the trajectory of the five case studies along the lines of their political stability, ethnic accommodation, and the long-term prospects for democratic accommodation. In attempting to find useful indicators of the trajectory of democratization in each of the five country case studies, six possible approaches are considered: political violence (the measurement of politically related deaths), economic indicators, political and societal indicators (political rights and civil liberties; media freedom and influence), electoral indicators (turnout; spoilt ballots), and ethnic accommodation (worsening ethnic and interregional relations, as exemplified by Zambia and Malawi; improving ethnic relations, as exemplified by Namibia and South Africa; and ethnic relations with an uncertain trajectory, as exemplified by Zimbabwe). Eight institutional indices of democratization are chosen from these: ethnic accommodation, political violence, economic performance, civil liberties, political rights, free media, electoral turnout, and spoilt ballots. The findings on these indicators for each case study are summarised in a table.
Richard Topf
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198294733
- eISBN:
- 9780191599699
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198294735.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Examines trends in electoral turnout across Western Europe during the post‐war period. It first tests the hypothesis that a strengthening of individualist values is taking place at the expense of ...
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Examines trends in electoral turnout across Western Europe during the post‐war period. It first tests the hypothesis that a strengthening of individualist values is taking place at the expense of collectivist values, and that this predicts a general trend towards lower levels of turnout. It then proceeds to examine the relationship between changes in turnout levels and demographic changes. Its main findings raise serious doubts about the declining turnout hypothesis, concluding that such changes in turnout levels, as there have been, can be primarily accounted for by demographic changes.Less
Examines trends in electoral turnout across Western Europe during the post‐war period. It first tests the hypothesis that a strengthening of individualist values is taking place at the expense of collectivist values, and that this predicts a general trend towards lower levels of turnout. It then proceeds to examine the relationship between changes in turnout levels and demographic changes. Its main findings raise serious doubts about the declining turnout hypothesis, concluding that such changes in turnout levels, as there have been, can be primarily accounted for by demographic changes.
Ian McAllister
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199240562
- eISBN:
- 9780191600296
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199240566.003.0013
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Placed in a comparative perspective, the hallmark of Australian politics is the dominance of party: the vast majority of voters identify with and vote for one of the major political parties, and ...
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Placed in a comparative perspective, the hallmark of Australian politics is the dominance of party: the vast majority of voters identify with and vote for one of the major political parties, and gaining election at the federal level is next to impossible without the benefit of one of three party labels (Liberal, National, or Labour). Within the legislature, party government operates in every sense of the word, with parties determining the legislative agenda and enforcing rigid discipline among their members. Perhaps more interestingly from a comparative perspective, Australia has seen little decline in the strength of the major parties in recent years, in contrast to Britain, the US, or many of the other advanced democracies. The explanation for the continuing strength of political parties in Australia can be traced to the origins and development of the country's political culture; Australia's split from Britain was imbued with the utilitarian ideas of Jeremy Bentham and his followers, and political parties are a necessary and important part of this utilitarian political culture. The introductory part discusses these factors, and also presents a separate account of the development of the party system; the next three sections cover the same topics as those in the other country case studies in the book, and examine party legitimacy (turnout—voting is compulsory, party identification, party membership, and attitudes towards parties), organizational strength (party finance, and mass media), and systemic functionality (governance, interest articulation and aggregation, political recruitment, political organization, political participation, and political communication and education).Less
Placed in a comparative perspective, the hallmark of Australian politics is the dominance of party: the vast majority of voters identify with and vote for one of the major political parties, and gaining election at the federal level is next to impossible without the benefit of one of three party labels (Liberal, National, or Labour). Within the legislature, party government operates in every sense of the word, with parties determining the legislative agenda and enforcing rigid discipline among their members. Perhaps more interestingly from a comparative perspective, Australia has seen little decline in the strength of the major parties in recent years, in contrast to Britain, the US, or many of the other advanced democracies. The explanation for the continuing strength of political parties in Australia can be traced to the origins and development of the country's political culture; Australia's split from Britain was imbued with the utilitarian ideas of Jeremy Bentham and his followers, and political parties are a necessary and important part of this utilitarian political culture. The introductory part discusses these factors, and also presents a separate account of the development of the party system; the next three sections cover the same topics as those in the other country case studies in the book, and examine party legitimacy (turnout—voting is compulsory, party identification, party membership, and attitudes towards parties), organizational strength (party finance, and mass media), and systemic functionality (governance, interest articulation and aggregation, political recruitment, political organization, political participation, and political communication and education).
Martin P. Wattenberg
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253098
- eISBN:
- 9780191599026
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253099.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Presents evidence that political parties are no longer performing their function of electoral mobilization as effectively as in the past. For instance, in 18 out of the 20 countries examined, recent ...
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Presents evidence that political parties are no longer performing their function of electoral mobilization as effectively as in the past. For instance, in 18 out of the 20 countries examined, recent turnout has been lower than those of the early 1950s. Party systems that are notoriously weak have seen the most pronounced drops in electoral participation, while the presence of strong parties appears to have dampened the decline of turnout. While mass attitudes may shift gradually over time, it takes a major shock to impact a habitual behaviour like participation in elections. Recent shake‐ups in the party systems of the OECD democracies may have provided the necessary jolt to send turnout plummeting.Less
Presents evidence that political parties are no longer performing their function of electoral mobilization as effectively as in the past. For instance, in 18 out of the 20 countries examined, recent turnout has been lower than those of the early 1950s. Party systems that are notoriously weak have seen the most pronounced drops in electoral participation, while the presence of strong parties appears to have dampened the decline of turnout. While mass attitudes may shift gradually over time, it takes a major shock to impact a habitual behaviour like participation in elections. Recent shake‐ups in the party systems of the OECD democracies may have provided the necessary jolt to send turnout plummeting.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Sets the context for this study of the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and of the problem of participation in European Parliament elections by considering the meaning ...
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Sets the context for this study of the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and of the problem of participation in European Parliament elections by considering the meaning of the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance. It goes on to examine the second‐order‐election model and concludes that assessment of the value of the model—as an account of the relationship between the citizens and the European Parliament, and as an explanation of turnout in European Parliament elections—depends on the outcome of detailed empirical research on the perceptions and attitudes of European citizens. The chapter provides a very brief overview of the literature on turnout, emphasizing the need to pay attention to both contextual and individual‐level variables. Finally, the chapter deals with methodological aspects of the study and describes the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1 (1994)) on which the study is based.Less
Sets the context for this study of the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and of the problem of participation in European Parliament elections by considering the meaning of the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance. It goes on to examine the second‐order‐election model and concludes that assessment of the value of the model—as an account of the relationship between the citizens and the European Parliament, and as an explanation of turnout in European Parliament elections—depends on the outcome of detailed empirical research on the perceptions and attitudes of European citizens. The chapter provides a very brief overview of the literature on turnout, emphasizing the need to pay attention to both contextual and individual‐level variables. Finally, the chapter deals with methodological aspects of the study and describes the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1 (1994)) on which the study is based.
