Dieter Nohlen, Bernard Thibaut, and Michael Krennerich (eds)
- Published in print:
- 1999
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198296454
- eISBN:
- 9780191600036
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198296452.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Reference
Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of ...
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Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of post‐independence African politics and have assumed the utmost importance in the course of recent democratization processes. However, comparative research on political development in Africa lacks reliable electoral data. Elections in Africa fills this gap. Following the overall structure of the series, an initial comparative introduction on elections and electoral systems is followed by chapters on each state of the region. These contributions examine the evolution of institutional and electoral arrangements from independence to the present (1999), and provide systematic surveys of the up‐to‐date electoral provisions and their historical development. Exhaustive statistics on national elections (presidential, parliamentary, and constitutional assembly), referendums and coups d’état are included within each chapter; these cover electoral bodies and voting, electoral participation of parties and alliances, vote distribution, parliamentary composition, and power holders. The data are presented in the same systematic manner for all countries in order to provide electoral statistics in line with internationally established standards of documentation, so that the data can be easily compared. The book, therefore, provides a definitive and comprehensive set of data on elections in order to facilitate comparative research. Together with the other books of this series, Elections in Africa is a highly reliable resource for historical and cross‐national comparisons of elections and electoral systems worldwide.Less
Elections in Africa is the first volume of a series of election data handbooks published by OUP; it covers all the 53 states in Africa. Elections have always been an integral part of post‐independence African politics and have assumed the utmost importance in the course of recent democratization processes. However, comparative research on political development in Africa lacks reliable electoral data. Elections in Africa fills this gap. Following the overall structure of the series, an initial comparative introduction on elections and electoral systems is followed by chapters on each state of the region. These contributions examine the evolution of institutional and electoral arrangements from independence to the present (1999), and provide systematic surveys of the up‐to‐date electoral provisions and their historical development. Exhaustive statistics on national elections (presidential, parliamentary, and constitutional assembly), referendums and coups d’état are included within each chapter; these cover electoral bodies and voting, electoral participation of parties and alliances, vote distribution, parliamentary composition, and power holders. The data are presented in the same systematic manner for all countries in order to provide electoral statistics in line with internationally established standards of documentation, so that the data can be easily compared. The book, therefore, provides a definitive and comprehensive set of data on elections in order to facilitate comparative research. Together with the other books of this series, Elections in Africa is a highly reliable resource for historical and cross‐national comparisons of elections and electoral systems worldwide.
Kees Aarts and Bernhard Wessels
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- October 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273218
- eISBN:
- 9780191602962
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273219.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
According to modernisation theory, electoral participation should become less important in modern democracies. “Modern” citizens feel more capable of handling their own political affairs, thus they ...
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According to modernisation theory, electoral participation should become less important in modern democracies. “Modern” citizens feel more capable of handling their own political affairs, thus they will decide for themselves when and how to get involved in political action, and consequentially will not automatically cast their vote. This view has in recent years often been rephrased into the expectation that electoral turnout in Western societies will decrease. However, this expectation is at odds with current knowledge about the development of the most important individual characteristic associated with electoral participation — i.e. the level of education — thus giving rise to a “puzzle of turnout”. This chapter addresses the turnout puzzle and provides an alternative explanation of varying turnout figures: the political context of the election. The political context (polarisation, degree of alienation and of indifference) is shown to account for trends and fluctuations in turnout in the six European democracies for up to 40 years.Less
According to modernisation theory, electoral participation should become less important in modern democracies. “Modern” citizens feel more capable of handling their own political affairs, thus they will decide for themselves when and how to get involved in political action, and consequentially will not automatically cast their vote. This view has in recent years often been rephrased into the expectation that electoral turnout in Western societies will decrease. However, this expectation is at odds with current knowledge about the development of the most important individual characteristic associated with electoral participation — i.e. the level of education — thus giving rise to a “puzzle of turnout”. This chapter addresses the turnout puzzle and provides an alternative explanation of varying turnout figures: the political context of the election. The political context (polarisation, degree of alienation and of indifference) is shown to account for trends and fluctuations in turnout in the six European democracies for up to 40 years.
Jacques Thomassen
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- October 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273218
- eISBN:
- 9780191602962
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273219.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The purpose of this book is to describe and explain the changes in electoral behaviour that occurred in six West-European countries in the second half of the twentieth century. Two alternative ...
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The purpose of this book is to describe and explain the changes in electoral behaviour that occurred in six West-European countries in the second half of the twentieth century. Two alternative theoretical approaches are systematically tested in an attempt to explain these changes. The first approach is deduced from modernisation theory. Modernisation theory implies that over time, the explanatory power for electoral behaviour of more or less stable structural variables such as social class and religion will yield to more short-term factors. The second and alternative theoretical approach predicts that changes and variations in patterns of voting behaviour are not due to secular processes in voting behaviour, but to variations in the political-institutional context, both between countries and within countries between different elections. In contrast to much of the authoritative literature, chapter after chapter of this book shows that there is little empirical evidence supporting modernization theory. Electoral behaviour is primarily political behaviour that is shaped by the political context of elections as much as by autonomous processes in society. In this respect, not much has changed during the period covered. The political context was never irrelevant for voting behaviour. No matter how divided a society is in terms of religion and/or social class, as long as these differences are not politicised, voters cannot be mobilised on this basis. Also, if voters do not see the policy differences between the political parties competing for their votes — as was increasingly the case in the second half of the 1980s and the 1990s in some of the countries in this study — one should not be surprised to find low correlations between voters’ policy preferences and their party choice.Less
The purpose of this book is to describe and explain the changes in electoral behaviour that occurred in six West-European countries in the second half of the twentieth century. Two alternative theoretical approaches are systematically tested in an attempt to explain these changes. The first approach is deduced from modernisation theory. Modernisation theory implies that over time, the explanatory power for electoral behaviour of more or less stable structural variables such as social class and religion will yield to more short-term factors. The second and alternative theoretical approach predicts that changes and variations in patterns of voting behaviour are not due to secular processes in voting behaviour, but to variations in the political-institutional context, both between countries and within countries between different elections. In contrast to much of the authoritative literature, chapter after chapter of this book shows that there is little empirical evidence supporting modernization theory. Electoral behaviour is primarily political behaviour that is shaped by the political context of elections as much as by autonomous processes in society. In this respect, not much has changed during the period covered. The political context was never irrelevant for voting behaviour. No matter how divided a society is in terms of religion and/or social class, as long as these differences are not politicised, voters cannot be mobilised on this basis. Also, if voters do not see the policy differences between the political parties competing for their votes — as was increasingly the case in the second half of the 1980s and the 1990s in some of the countries in this study — one should not be surprised to find low correlations between voters’ policy preferences and their party choice.
Jonathan Bendor, Daniel Diermeier, David A. Siegel, and Michael M. Ting
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691135076
- eISBN:
- 9781400836802
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691135076.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The ...
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Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.Less
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
This book sets out to analyse the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and the problem of participation in European Parliament elections. It begins by examining the ...
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This book sets out to analyse the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and the problem of participation in European Parliament elections. It begins by examining the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance, by briefly reviewing approaches to the study of turnout, including the approach embodied in the second‐order‐election model, and by describing the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1, (1994)) on which the study is based. The book summarizes the trends in turnout in European Parliament elections and makes a key distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention. This is followed by a series of chapters dealing with attitudes to European integration, the European Parliament, and European elections, each chapter concluding with a bivariate analysis of the relationship between such attitudes and participation/abstention in European Parliament elections. The trends in attitudes and in turnout are also considered on a country‐by‐country basis. The book then presents a multivariate analysis of various types of abstention and concludes that some, but not all, of the contextual variables usually thought to affect abstention do have a substantial impact; that the individual characteristic with the most consistent effect on abstention is age, social class and educational effects being modest; that, contrary to the findings of previous research, attitudes to the European Union do have significant effects on abstention; that the second‐order explanation of abstention in European Parliament elections is not supported by the evidence; and that active exposure to the campaign significantly reduces voluntary Euro‐specific abstention. Interpretation of the implications of these findings focuses on the distinction between the facilitation and the mobilization of electoral participation. In terms of facilitating participation in European Parliament elections, the book concludes that turnout could be increased by addressing the problem of the day of the week on which voting takes place, the problems of registration and use of voting cards that arise in certain countries, and problems arising from the timing of the elections in mid‐June. In terms of mobilizing participation in European elections, the book concludes that, rather than relying on the kind of transformational institutional change that would see European Parliament elections providing a mandate to govern Europe, what is needed is a series of piecemeal and specific approaches. Effective mobilization of voters in European Parliament elections will require painstaking efforts to inform European citizens and persuade them of the value of the process of European governance, and of the significance of the European‐level issues involved. Voter mobilization is enhanced by active exposure to the campaign but it will also require a strengthening of the image of the Parliament in the minds of the citizens and, through higher‐profile activity by MEPs during inter‐election periods, an improvement in people's perceptions of the capacity of the Parliament to look after the interests of the citizens.Less
This book sets out to analyse the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and the problem of participation in European Parliament elections. It begins by examining the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance, by briefly reviewing approaches to the study of turnout, including the approach embodied in the second‐order‐election model, and by describing the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1, (1994)) on which the study is based. The book summarizes the trends in turnout in European Parliament elections and makes a key distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention. This is followed by a series of chapters dealing with attitudes to European integration, the European Parliament, and European elections, each chapter concluding with a bivariate analysis of the relationship between such attitudes and participation/abstention in European Parliament elections. The trends in attitudes and in turnout are also considered on a country‐by‐country basis. The book then presents a multivariate analysis of various types of abstention and concludes that some, but not all, of the contextual variables usually thought to affect abstention do have a substantial impact; that the individual characteristic with the most consistent effect on abstention is age, social class and educational effects being modest; that, contrary to the findings of previous research, attitudes to the European Union do have significant effects on abstention; that the second‐order explanation of abstention in European Parliament elections is not supported by the evidence; and that active exposure to the campaign significantly reduces voluntary Euro‐specific abstention. Interpretation of the implications of these findings focuses on the distinction between the facilitation and the mobilization of electoral participation. In terms of facilitating participation in European Parliament elections, the book concludes that turnout could be increased by addressing the problem of the day of the week on which voting takes place, the problems of registration and use of voting cards that arise in certain countries, and problems arising from the timing of the elections in mid‐June. In terms of mobilizing participation in European elections, the book concludes that, rather than relying on the kind of transformational institutional change that would see European Parliament elections providing a mandate to govern Europe, what is needed is a series of piecemeal and specific approaches. Effective mobilization of voters in European Parliament elections will require painstaking efforts to inform European citizens and persuade them of the value of the process of European governance, and of the significance of the European‐level issues involved. Voter mobilization is enhanced by active exposure to the campaign but it will also require a strengthening of the image of the Parliament in the minds of the citizens and, through higher‐profile activity by MEPs during inter‐election periods, an improvement in people's perceptions of the capacity of the Parliament to look after the interests of the citizens.
Jacques Thomassen
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- October 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273218
- eISBN:
- 9780191602962
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273219.003.0011
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter summarises the discussions on the development of patterns of voting behaviour in European countries, and the validity of the two alternative theoretical approaches to explaining the ...
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This chapter summarises the discussions on the development of patterns of voting behaviour in European countries, and the validity of the two alternative theoretical approaches to explaining the changes in electoral behaviour. The analyses will be done separately for the two successive decisions voters have to make at election time. First, the decision on whether they will vote at all, and second, which party of candidate they will vote for.Less
This chapter summarises the discussions on the development of patterns of voting behaviour in European countries, and the validity of the two alternative theoretical approaches to explaining the changes in electoral behaviour. The analyses will be done separately for the two successive decisions voters have to make at election time. First, the decision on whether they will vote at all, and second, which party of candidate they will vote for.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Political Choice in Britain uses data from the 1964 to 2001 British election studies (BES), 1992 to 2002 monthly Gallup polls, and numerous other national surveys conducted over the past ...
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Political Choice in Britain uses data from the 1964 to 2001 British election studies (BES), 1992 to 2002 monthly Gallup polls, and numerous other national surveys conducted over the past four decades to test the explanatory power of rival sociological and individual rationality models of electoral turnout and party choice. Analyses endorse a valence politics model that challenges the long-dominant social class model. British voters make their choices by evaluating the performance of parties and party leaders in economic and other important policy areas. Although these evaluations may be largely products of events that occur long before an election campaign officially begins, parties’ national and local campaign activities are also influential. Consistent with the valence politics model, partisan attachments display individual- and aggregate-level dynamics that reflect ongoing judgements about the managerial abilities of parties and their leaders. A general incentives model provides the best explanation of turnout. Calculations of the costs and influence-discounted benefits of voting and sense of civic duty are key variables in this model. Significantly, the decline in turnout in recent elections does not reflect more general negative trends in public attitudes about the political system. Voters judge the performance of British democracy in much the same way as they evaluate its parties and politicians. Support at all levels of the political system is a renewable resource, but one that must be renewed.Less
Political Choice in Britain uses data from the 1964 to 2001 British election studies (BES), 1992 to 2002 monthly Gallup polls, and numerous other national surveys conducted over the past four decades to test the explanatory power of rival sociological and individual rationality models of electoral turnout and party choice. Analyses endorse a valence politics model that challenges the long-dominant social class model. British voters make their choices by evaluating the performance of parties and party leaders in economic and other important policy areas. Although these evaluations may be largely products of events that occur long before an election campaign officially begins, parties’ national and local campaign activities are also influential. Consistent with the valence politics model, partisan attachments display individual- and aggregate-level dynamics that reflect ongoing judgements about the managerial abilities of parties and their leaders. A general incentives model provides the best explanation of turnout. Calculations of the costs and influence-discounted benefits of voting and sense of civic duty are key variables in this model. Significantly, the decline in turnout in recent elections does not reflect more general negative trends in public attitudes about the political system. Voters judge the performance of British democracy in much the same way as they evaluate its parties and politicians. Support at all levels of the political system is a renewable resource, but one that must be renewed.
Margit Tavits
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- January 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199553327
- eISBN:
- 9780191721007
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199553327.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This book is about presidents in parliamentary systems. One commonly recurring political debate within parliamentary systems is over whether or not the public should directly elect the head of state. ...
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This book is about presidents in parliamentary systems. One commonly recurring political debate within parliamentary systems is over whether or not the public should directly elect the head of state. Despite the importance of this topic in practical politics, political scientists have offered little empirical evidence yet made bold assumptions about the consequences of popular elections for heads of state. A common argument is that direct elections enhance presidents' legitimacy thereby increasing their activism and encouraging authoritarian tendencies. Another popular assumption is that direct presidential elections are more heavily contested and partisan, polarizing, and dividing political elites and the electorate. Proponents of direct elections argue that such elections will help decrease voter alienation and apathy. This book challenges the conventional wisdom. Using both quantitative and qualitative empirical evidence from democratic systems across the world, this book demonstrates that compared to indirect selection methods, direct elections do not yield more active and contentious presidents, do not polarize political elites or society, and do not remedy political apathy. Rather, presidential activism in both “semi-presidential” and “pure parliamentary” systems is shaped by political opportunity framework—the institutional strength and partisan composition of both parliament and government. Further, because holding the presidency provides parties with an electoral asset, direct and indirect presidential elections can be equally contentious and polarizing. Last, but not least, rather than decreasing apathy, direct election is associated with increased voter fatigue and decreased turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points.Less
This book is about presidents in parliamentary systems. One commonly recurring political debate within parliamentary systems is over whether or not the public should directly elect the head of state. Despite the importance of this topic in practical politics, political scientists have offered little empirical evidence yet made bold assumptions about the consequences of popular elections for heads of state. A common argument is that direct elections enhance presidents' legitimacy thereby increasing their activism and encouraging authoritarian tendencies. Another popular assumption is that direct presidential elections are more heavily contested and partisan, polarizing, and dividing political elites and the electorate. Proponents of direct elections argue that such elections will help decrease voter alienation and apathy. This book challenges the conventional wisdom. Using both quantitative and qualitative empirical evidence from democratic systems across the world, this book demonstrates that compared to indirect selection methods, direct elections do not yield more active and contentious presidents, do not polarize political elites or society, and do not remedy political apathy. Rather, presidential activism in both “semi-presidential” and “pure parliamentary” systems is shaped by political opportunity framework—the institutional strength and partisan composition of both parliament and government. Further, because holding the presidency provides parties with an electoral asset, direct and indirect presidential elections can be equally contentious and polarizing. Last, but not least, rather than decreasing apathy, direct election is associated with increased voter fatigue and decreased turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points.
Bernard Grofman
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198294719
- eISBN:
- 9780191599361
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198294719.003.0030
- Subject:
- Political Science, Reference
Defends Down's three main arguments in An Economic Theory of Democracy. These three arguments relate to the costs associated with voting and rational non‐voting, party competition costs of attempting ...
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Defends Down's three main arguments in An Economic Theory of Democracy. These three arguments relate to the costs associated with voting and rational non‐voting, party competition costs of attempting to attract votes away from the median voter, and the costs associated with obtaining political knowledge. These arguments can be maintained if we do not overestimate what we can expect from a theory, and consequently the contribution of rational choice and of Downs should not be minimized.Less
Defends Down's three main arguments in An Economic Theory of Democracy. These three arguments relate to the costs associated with voting and rational non‐voting, party competition costs of attempting to attract votes away from the median voter, and the costs associated with obtaining political knowledge. These arguments can be maintained if we do not overestimate what we can expect from a theory, and consequently the contribution of rational choice and of Downs should not be minimized.
Margit Tavits
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- January 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199553327
- eISBN:
- 9780191721007
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199553327.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples ...
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Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples of parliamentary systems with elected heads of state demonstrate that citizens' satisfaction with government, political disillusionment, their commitment to democratic values and level of political involvement are not significantly affected by introducing direct presidential elections. In fact, the additional election increases voter fatigue and decreases turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points. Since direct presidential elections are no more likely to decrease citizen disillusionment with the government and strengthen democratic practices than indirect elections, this chapter concludes that these systems have indistinguishable effects on democratic attitudes. The noticeable effect of introducing additional elections on voter behavior, however, merits the attention of institutional designers.Less
Chapter 6 addresses a third prevalent issue regarding presidential elections—the extent to which direct elections strengthen democratic practices. Empirical analyses using global and European samples of parliamentary systems with elected heads of state demonstrate that citizens' satisfaction with government, political disillusionment, their commitment to democratic values and level of political involvement are not significantly affected by introducing direct presidential elections. In fact, the additional election increases voter fatigue and decreases turnout in parliamentary elections by about seven percentage points. Since direct presidential elections are no more likely to decrease citizen disillusionment with the government and strengthen democratic practices than indirect elections, this chapter concludes that these systems have indistinguishable effects on democratic attitudes. The noticeable effect of introducing additional elections on voter behavior, however, merits the attention of institutional designers.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Sets the context for this study of the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and of the problem of participation in European Parliament elections by considering the meaning ...
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Sets the context for this study of the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and of the problem of participation in European Parliament elections by considering the meaning of the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance. It goes on to examine the second‐order‐election model and concludes that assessment of the value of the model—as an account of the relationship between the citizens and the European Parliament, and as an explanation of turnout in European Parliament elections—depends on the outcome of detailed empirical research on the perceptions and attitudes of European citizens. The chapter provides a very brief overview of the literature on turnout, emphasizing the need to pay attention to both contextual and individual‐level variables. Finally, the chapter deals with methodological aspects of the study and describes the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1 (1994)) on which the study is based.Less
Sets the context for this study of the relationship between people and parliament in the European Union and of the problem of participation in European Parliament elections by considering the meaning of the concepts of democracy and legitimacy as applied to the supranational level of governance. It goes on to examine the second‐order‐election model and concludes that assessment of the value of the model—as an account of the relationship between the citizens and the European Parliament, and as an explanation of turnout in European Parliament elections—depends on the outcome of detailed empirical research on the perceptions and attitudes of European citizens. The chapter provides a very brief overview of the literature on turnout, emphasizing the need to pay attention to both contextual and individual‐level variables. Finally, the chapter deals with methodological aspects of the study and describes the main features of the survey (Eurobarometer 41.1 (1994)) on which the study is based.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Presents the data on turnout in European Parliament elections and examines the evidence, derived from an open‐ended question in Eurobarometer 41.1, on the reasons abstainers give for not voting. ...
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Presents the data on turnout in European Parliament elections and examines the evidence, derived from an open‐ended question in Eurobarometer 41.1, on the reasons abstainers give for not voting. Based on this evidence, the chapter develops a distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention. The incidence of various sub‐types of each of these forms of abstention is considered. The chapter concludes by presenting a typology of participation/abstention in European Parliament elections that takes account of the distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention, and of whether individuals voted in the European Parliament election only or in the most recent national election only, in both, or in neither.Less
Presents the data on turnout in European Parliament elections and examines the evidence, derived from an open‐ended question in Eurobarometer 41.1, on the reasons abstainers give for not voting. Based on this evidence, the chapter develops a distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention. The incidence of various sub‐types of each of these forms of abstention is considered. The chapter concludes by presenting a typology of participation/abstention in European Parliament elections that takes account of the distinction between circumstantial and voluntary abstention, and of whether individuals voted in the European Parliament election only or in the most recent national election only, in both, or in neither.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Analyses the trends in support of European integration using the four standard Eurobarometer indicators (dissolution, benefits, membership, and unification). The chapter also examines preferences ...
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Analyses the trends in support of European integration using the four standard Eurobarometer indicators (dissolution, benefits, membership, and unification). The chapter also examines preferences regarding the scope of European‐level decision‐making, preferences regarding the development of a United States of Europe and satisfaction with democracy at the European and national level. Finally, the chapter examines, on a bivariate basis, the evidence of the relationships (if any) between the variables considered in the chapter and the types of electoral participation/abstention outlined in Ch. 2.Less
Analyses the trends in support of European integration using the four standard Eurobarometer indicators (dissolution, benefits, membership, and unification). The chapter also examines preferences regarding the scope of European‐level decision‐making, preferences regarding the development of a United States of Europe and satisfaction with democracy at the European and national level. Finally, the chapter examines, on a bivariate basis, the evidence of the relationships (if any) between the variables considered in the chapter and the types of electoral participation/abstention outlined in Ch. 2.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Deals with the cognitive dimension of orientations to European integration and the European institutions, focusing on awareness, interest, and knowledge. It concludes by examining the bivariate ...
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Deals with the cognitive dimension of orientations to European integration and the European institutions, focusing on awareness, interest, and knowledge. It concludes by examining the bivariate relationships between these variables and the types of electoral participation/abstention.Less
Deals with the cognitive dimension of orientations to European integration and the European institutions, focusing on awareness, interest, and knowledge. It concludes by examining the bivariate relationships between these variables and the types of electoral participation/abstention.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Examines perceptions of the power and reliability of the European Parliament and affective images of the Parliament as measured by an open‐ended, likes–dislikes question. As with the previous ...
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Examines perceptions of the power and reliability of the European Parliament and affective images of the Parliament as measured by an open‐ended, likes–dislikes question. As with the previous chapters, the relationship between such perceptions and images and participation/abstention in European Parliament elections is considered, with particular reference to the implications of the evidence for the second‐order‐election model.Less
Examines perceptions of the power and reliability of the European Parliament and affective images of the Parliament as measured by an open‐ended, likes–dislikes question. As with the previous chapters, the relationship between such perceptions and images and participation/abstention in European Parliament elections is considered, with particular reference to the implications of the evidence for the second‐order‐election model.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Takes up the question of the perceptions of, and attitudes to, parties and candidates in European and national elections. Measures of party differentials and candidate differentials are presented, ...
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Takes up the question of the perceptions of, and attitudes to, parties and candidates in European and national elections. Measures of party differentials and candidate differentials are presented, and the implications of the evidence for an assessment of the second‐order‐election model are examined. The chapter then deals with the citizens’ experience of the European Parliament election campaign of 1994, distinguishing between active and passive exposure to the campaign. The chapter concludes with an examination of the relationship between the variables considered and participation/abstention.Less
Takes up the question of the perceptions of, and attitudes to, parties and candidates in European and national elections. Measures of party differentials and candidate differentials are presented, and the implications of the evidence for an assessment of the second‐order‐election model are examined. The chapter then deals with the citizens’ experience of the European Parliament election campaign of 1994, distinguishing between active and passive exposure to the campaign. The chapter concludes with an examination of the relationship between the variables considered and participation/abstention.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Examines the cross‐country variations in turnout in European Parliament elections and of variations in the variables associated with turnout. Countries are considered in three groups—high turnout, ...
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Examines the cross‐country variations in turnout in European Parliament elections and of variations in the variables associated with turnout. Countries are considered in three groups—high turnout, medium turnout, and low turnout countries. Within the groups defined, each of the 12 member states is considered separately, paying due attention to the national, institutional, cultural, and political context.Less
Examines the cross‐country variations in turnout in European Parliament elections and of variations in the variables associated with turnout. Countries are considered in three groups—high turnout, medium turnout, and low turnout countries. Within the groups defined, each of the 12 member states is considered separately, paying due attention to the national, institutional, cultural, and political context.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0008
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Having briefly considered the evidence of correlations between demographic characteristics and participation/abstention, Ch. 8 categorizes the large number of potential influences on ...
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Having briefly considered the evidence of correlations between demographic characteristics and participation/abstention, Ch. 8 categorizes the large number of potential influences on participation/abstention under six headings: institutional and political context, personal characteristics, political attitude, second‐order‐election‐model effects, attitudes to the European Union and the European Parliament, and campaign exposure. On the basis of a number of logistic regressions with the key types of abstention as dependent variables, the analysis leads to five main conclusions. Firstly, some but not all of the contextual variables, usually thought to affect abstention, have a substantial impact. Secondly, the evidence shows that the personal characteristic with the most consistent effect on abstention is age; social class effects appear to be quite limited and the effects of education appears to be, at best, modest. Thirdly, contrary to the findings of previous research, attitudes to the European Union have significant effects on abstention. Fourthly, the second‐order explanation of abstention in European Parliament elections receives little or no support from the evidence; in particular, perceptions indicating a presumed process of second‐order reasoning do not predict voluntary Euro‐specific abstention. Finally, active exposure to the campaign significantly reduces voluntary Euro‐specific abstention.Less
Having briefly considered the evidence of correlations between demographic characteristics and participation/abstention, Ch. 8 categorizes the large number of potential influences on participation/abstention under six headings: institutional and political context, personal characteristics, political attitude, second‐order‐election‐model effects, attitudes to the European Union and the European Parliament, and campaign exposure. On the basis of a number of logistic regressions with the key types of abstention as dependent variables, the analysis leads to five main conclusions. Firstly, some but not all of the contextual variables, usually thought to affect abstention, have a substantial impact. Secondly, the evidence shows that the personal characteristic with the most consistent effect on abstention is age; social class effects appear to be quite limited and the effects of education appears to be, at best, modest. Thirdly, contrary to the findings of previous research, attitudes to the European Union have significant effects on abstention. Fourthly, the second‐order explanation of abstention in European Parliament elections receives little or no support from the evidence; in particular, perceptions indicating a presumed process of second‐order reasoning do not predict voluntary Euro‐specific abstention. Finally, active exposure to the campaign significantly reduces voluntary Euro‐specific abstention.
Jean Blondel, Richard Sinnott, and Palle Svensson
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293088
- eISBN:
- 9780191598814
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293089.003.0009
- Subject:
- Political Science, European Union
Summarizes the findings presented in the preceding chapters. Interpretation of the implications of these findings focuses on the distinction between the facilitation and the mobilization of electoral ...
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Summarizes the findings presented in the preceding chapters. Interpretation of the implications of these findings focuses on the distinction between the facilitation and the mobilization of electoral participation, taking into account the different contexts created by different types of democratic governance and specifically by the type of governance embodied in the European Union. In terms of facilitating participation in European Parliament elections, the chapter concludes that turnout could be increased by addressing the problem of the day of the week on which voting takes place, the problems of registration and use of voting cards that arise in certain countries, and problems arising from the timing of the election in mid‐June. In terms of mobilizing participation in European elections, the book concludes that, rather than relying on the kind of transformational institutional change that would see European Parliament elections providing a mandate to govern Europe, what is needed is a series of piecemeal and specific approaches. Effective mobilization of voters in European Parliament elections will require painstaking efforts to inform European citizens and to persuade them of the value of the process of European governance and of the significance of the European‐level issues involved. Voter mobilization is enhanced by active exposure to the campaign but it will also require a strengthening of the image of the Parliament in the minds of the citizens and, through higher profile activity by MEPs during inter‐election periods, an improvement in people's perceptions of the capacity of the Parliament to look after the interests of the citizens.Less
Summarizes the findings presented in the preceding chapters. Interpretation of the implications of these findings focuses on the distinction between the facilitation and the mobilization of electoral participation, taking into account the different contexts created by different types of democratic governance and specifically by the type of governance embodied in the European Union. In terms of facilitating participation in European Parliament elections, the chapter concludes that turnout could be increased by addressing the problem of the day of the week on which voting takes place, the problems of registration and use of voting cards that arise in certain countries, and problems arising from the timing of the election in mid‐June. In terms of mobilizing participation in European elections, the book concludes that, rather than relying on the kind of transformational institutional change that would see European Parliament elections providing a mandate to govern Europe, what is needed is a series of piecemeal and specific approaches. Effective mobilization of voters in European Parliament elections will require painstaking efforts to inform European citizens and to persuade them of the value of the process of European governance and of the significance of the European‐level issues involved. Voter mobilization is enhanced by active exposure to the campaign but it will also require a strengthening of the image of the Parliament in the minds of the citizens and, through higher profile activity by MEPs during inter‐election periods, an improvement in people's perceptions of the capacity of the Parliament to look after the interests of the citizens.
Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- November 2004
- ISBN:
- 9780199244881
- eISBN:
- 9780191601521
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019924488X.003.0010
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
Restates the argument that British electoral politics over the past 40 years can be best understood using a valence politics model. The three major predictors of electoral choice–leadership images, ...
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Restates the argument that British electoral politics over the past 40 years can be best understood using a valence politics model. The three major predictors of electoral choice–leadership images, partisanship, and evaluations of economic performance–are key elements of the valence model. Analyses of turnout demonstrate the explanatory power of cost-benefit calculations that are augmented by assessments of overall benefits to the political system in general–which are elements of the general incentives model. Beyond electoral participation, satisfaction with the democratic process itself depends primarily on assessments of institutional and policy performance–that is, on valence judgements. The individual rationality framework and, in particular, its valence politics model, provide powerful analytic leverage for explaining political choice in Britain.Less
Restates the argument that British electoral politics over the past 40 years can be best understood using a valence politics model. The three major predictors of electoral choice–leadership images, partisanship, and evaluations of economic performance–are key elements of the valence model. Analyses of turnout demonstrate the explanatory power of cost-benefit calculations that are augmented by assessments of overall benefits to the political system in general–which are elements of the general incentives model. Beyond electoral participation, satisfaction with the democratic process itself depends primarily on assessments of institutional and policy performance–that is, on valence judgements. The individual rationality framework and, in particular, its valence politics model, provide powerful analytic leverage for explaining political choice in Britain.
