Diana C. Mutz
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691144511
- eISBN:
- 9781400840489
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691144511.003.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Social Research and Statistics
This introductory chapter traces the development of population-based experiments and highlights some of their advantages over traditional experiments and surveys. There is a tendency to think about ...
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This introductory chapter traces the development of population-based experiments and highlights some of their advantages over traditional experiments and surveys. There is a tendency to think about population-based survey experiments as simply a hybrid methodology that melds certain characteristics of surveys and experiments. But to say this tells nothing about which advantages and disadvantages of each methodology are inherited. The chapter argues that population-based survey experiments are instead more akin to an agricultural hybrid that produces something that was not present in either of the two original plants. To the extent that population-based survey experiments can be implemented with effective treatments and with the same degree of control over random assignment as in the lab, it is the only kind of research design capable of straightforwardly estimating population average treatment effects without complex statistical machinations.Less
This introductory chapter traces the development of population-based experiments and highlights some of their advantages over traditional experiments and surveys. There is a tendency to think about population-based survey experiments as simply a hybrid methodology that melds certain characteristics of surveys and experiments. But to say this tells nothing about which advantages and disadvantages of each methodology are inherited. The chapter argues that population-based survey experiments are instead more akin to an agricultural hybrid that produces something that was not present in either of the two original plants. To the extent that population-based survey experiments can be implemented with effective treatments and with the same degree of control over random assignment as in the lab, it is the only kind of research design capable of straightforwardly estimating population average treatment effects without complex statistical machinations.
Diana C. Mutz
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691144511
- eISBN:
- 9781400840489
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691144511.001.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Social Research and Statistics
Population-based survey experiments have become an invaluable tool for social scientists struggling to generalize laboratory-based results, and for survey researchers besieged by uncertainties about ...
More
Population-based survey experiments have become an invaluable tool for social scientists struggling to generalize laboratory-based results, and for survey researchers besieged by uncertainties about causality. Thanks to technological advances in recent years, experiments can now be administered to random samples of the population to which a theory applies. Yet until now, there was no self-contained resource for social scientists seeking a concise and accessible overview of this methodology, its strengths and weaknesses, and the unique challenges it poses for implementation and analysis. Drawing on examples from across the social sciences, this book covers everything you need to know to plan, implement, and analyze the results of population-based survey experiments. But it is more than just a “how to” manual. This book challenges conventional wisdom about internal and external validity, showing why strong causal claims need not come at the expense of external validity, and how it is now possible to execute experiments remotely using large-scale population samples. Designed for social scientists across the disciplines, the book provides the first complete introduction to this methodology and features a wealth of examples and practical advice.Less
Population-based survey experiments have become an invaluable tool for social scientists struggling to generalize laboratory-based results, and for survey researchers besieged by uncertainties about causality. Thanks to technological advances in recent years, experiments can now be administered to random samples of the population to which a theory applies. Yet until now, there was no self-contained resource for social scientists seeking a concise and accessible overview of this methodology, its strengths and weaknesses, and the unique challenges it poses for implementation and analysis. Drawing on examples from across the social sciences, this book covers everything you need to know to plan, implement, and analyze the results of population-based survey experiments. But it is more than just a “how to” manual. This book challenges conventional wisdom about internal and external validity, showing why strong causal claims need not come at the expense of external validity, and how it is now possible to execute experiments remotely using large-scale population samples. Designed for social scientists across the disciplines, the book provides the first complete introduction to this methodology and features a wealth of examples and practical advice.
Diana C. Mutz
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691144511
- eISBN:
- 9781400840489
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691144511.003.0009
- Subject:
- Sociology, Social Research and Statistics
This chapter discusses how population-based survey experiments can be especially valuable to more particularistic research because the target of applicability is known and specified. With ...
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This chapter discusses how population-based survey experiments can be especially valuable to more particularistic research because the target of applicability is known and specified. With particularistic research, population-based survey experiments are important not so much to explore boundaries of generalizability as to establish that the empirical cause and effect relationship works as predicted on the targeted population. By increasing the variety of experimental subjects, the settings in which research is done, and the kinds of treatments and measures that are utilized, population-based survey experiments may produce greater awareness of the boundaries of various social science theories. Whether this kind of activity is welcome or not, it remains an important contribution to social science knowledge.Less
This chapter discusses how population-based survey experiments can be especially valuable to more particularistic research because the target of applicability is known and specified. With particularistic research, population-based survey experiments are important not so much to explore boundaries of generalizability as to establish that the empirical cause and effect relationship works as predicted on the targeted population. By increasing the variety of experimental subjects, the settings in which research is done, and the kinds of treatments and measures that are utilized, population-based survey experiments may produce greater awareness of the boundaries of various social science theories. Whether this kind of activity is welcome or not, it remains an important contribution to social science knowledge.
David C. Barker and Christopher Jan Carman
- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- September 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780199796564
- eISBN:
- 9780199979714
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199796564.003.0005
- Subject:
- Psychology, Social Psychology
This chapter attempts to begin connecting the dots between the results discussed in Chapter 4 and the ultimate argument that representation itself comes in culturally “Red” or “Blue” shades. The ...
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This chapter attempts to begin connecting the dots between the results discussed in Chapter 4 and the ultimate argument that representation itself comes in culturally “Red” or “Blue” shades. The first step is the ballot box, and that is the focus of this chapter. First, the chapter shows that in both 2006 and 2008, those who prefer trustee-style representation tended to vote overwhelmingly for Republican candidates at all levels of government. Next, the chapter reports evidence from a controlled survey experiment that asked respondents to evaluate hypothetical candidates based on representation style that is evidenced rhetorically. This experiment reveals that traditionalistic Christians (and Republicans) are more likely to think that candidates sending “trustee”-style messages will be better representatives if elected.Less
This chapter attempts to begin connecting the dots between the results discussed in Chapter 4 and the ultimate argument that representation itself comes in culturally “Red” or “Blue” shades. The first step is the ballot box, and that is the focus of this chapter. First, the chapter shows that in both 2006 and 2008, those who prefer trustee-style representation tended to vote overwhelmingly for Republican candidates at all levels of government. Next, the chapter reports evidence from a controlled survey experiment that asked respondents to evaluate hypothetical candidates based on representation style that is evidenced rhetorically. This experiment reveals that traditionalistic Christians (and Republicans) are more likely to think that candidates sending “trustee”-style messages will be better representatives if elected.
Michele F. Margolis
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780226555645
- eISBN:
- 9780226555812
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- University of Chicago Press
- DOI:
- 10.7208/chicago/9780226555812.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Chapter 5 explains why partisanship can matter for individual religious behaviors and outlooks. The elite-level link between the Republican Party and organized religion allows voters to associate the ...
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Chapter 5 explains why partisanship can matter for individual religious behaviors and outlooks. The elite-level link between the Republican Party and organized religion allows voters to associate the parties with different levels of religiosity. Evidence from two survey experiments demonstrates that the close relationship between Republicans and organized religion has pushed Democrats out of the organized religious sphere, while bringing Republicans deeper into the religious fold. Panel data provide additional verification of this finding by allowing me to see how partisans respond when the linkages between religion and the Republican Party become more salient. The data show that, thanks to the increasing importance of gay marriage as a political issue in 2004, party identi?cation in?uenced subsequent religious practices: Democrats (Republicans) reported lower (higher) rates of religiosity in 2004 than they did in 2000 or 2002. And, consistent with the life-cycle theory, this relationship is strongest among respondents who were of an age when they were likely considering re-engaging with or increasing participation in religious life.Less
Chapter 5 explains why partisanship can matter for individual religious behaviors and outlooks. The elite-level link between the Republican Party and organized religion allows voters to associate the parties with different levels of religiosity. Evidence from two survey experiments demonstrates that the close relationship between Republicans and organized religion has pushed Democrats out of the organized religious sphere, while bringing Republicans deeper into the religious fold. Panel data provide additional verification of this finding by allowing me to see how partisans respond when the linkages between religion and the Republican Party become more salient. The data show that, thanks to the increasing importance of gay marriage as a political issue in 2004, party identi?cation in?uenced subsequent religious practices: Democrats (Republicans) reported lower (higher) rates of religiosity in 2004 than they did in 2000 or 2002. And, consistent with the life-cycle theory, this relationship is strongest among respondents who were of an age when they were likely considering re-engaging with or increasing participation in religious life.
Alexandra Guisinger
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- August 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780190651824
- eISBN:
- 9780190651862
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190651824.003.0008
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Economic History
Chapter 8 asks whether changing the types of information provided to voters would sufficiently move public opinion to make such a strategy viable for political actors. Three original survey ...
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Chapter 8 asks whether changing the types of information provided to voters would sufficiently move public opinion to make such a strategy viable for political actors. Three original survey experiments explore the role of positive factual information, partisan factual information, and simple altruistic framing in shaping opinions. In the first case, a randomly selected half of respondents watched a trade supportive political campaign ad narrated by John McCain. In the second case, respondents received positive messages from experts about the benefits for the United States of the World Trade Organization and the costs to the United States of responding to Chinese currency manipulation, but the partisan attribution of the expert cited in these messages varied. In the final case, respondents identified in random order their preference for U.S. trade policy and their preference for Chinese trade policy. Although all three affected individuals’ beliefs, those effects were not strong enough to overcome most participants’ support for trade protection. Positive messages also increased, rather than decreased, gender and race gaps in preferences for trade protection. The chapter concludes by arguing that these findings support the decision of most individuals seeking reelection not to embrace pro-trade messages.Less
Chapter 8 asks whether changing the types of information provided to voters would sufficiently move public opinion to make such a strategy viable for political actors. Three original survey experiments explore the role of positive factual information, partisan factual information, and simple altruistic framing in shaping opinions. In the first case, a randomly selected half of respondents watched a trade supportive political campaign ad narrated by John McCain. In the second case, respondents received positive messages from experts about the benefits for the United States of the World Trade Organization and the costs to the United States of responding to Chinese currency manipulation, but the partisan attribution of the expert cited in these messages varied. In the final case, respondents identified in random order their preference for U.S. trade policy and their preference for Chinese trade policy. Although all three affected individuals’ beliefs, those effects were not strong enough to overcome most participants’ support for trade protection. Positive messages also increased, rather than decreased, gender and race gaps in preferences for trade protection. The chapter concludes by arguing that these findings support the decision of most individuals seeking reelection not to embrace pro-trade messages.
Jeffrey A. Friedman
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- April 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780190938024
- eISBN:
- 9780190938055
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190938024.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, International Relations and Politics
This chapter explores the psychology of assessing uncertainty in international politics. It presents a series of survey experiments that test important concerns about the extent to which transparent ...
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This chapter explores the psychology of assessing uncertainty in international politics. It presents a series of survey experiments that test important concerns about the extent to which transparent probabilistic reasoning could potentially warp the quality of foreign policy analysis and decision making. The most important of these concerns is the idea that clear assessments of uncertainty create illusions of rigor that make leaders insensitive to risk. Contrary to this assertion, the chapter’s experimental evidence suggests that decision makers’ choices are sensitive to subtle variations in probabilistic reasoning, and that making this reasoning more transparent encourages decision makers to be more cautious when placing lives and resources at risk. These experiments involve hundreds of real national security professionals and thousands of non-elite respondents.Less
This chapter explores the psychology of assessing uncertainty in international politics. It presents a series of survey experiments that test important concerns about the extent to which transparent probabilistic reasoning could potentially warp the quality of foreign policy analysis and decision making. The most important of these concerns is the idea that clear assessments of uncertainty create illusions of rigor that make leaders insensitive to risk. Contrary to this assertion, the chapter’s experimental evidence suggests that decision makers’ choices are sensitive to subtle variations in probabilistic reasoning, and that making this reasoning more transparent encourages decision makers to be more cautious when placing lives and resources at risk. These experiments involve hundreds of real national security professionals and thousands of non-elite respondents.
Rachel VanSickle-Ward and Kevin Wallsten
- Published in print:
- 2020
- Published Online:
- November 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780190675349
- eISBN:
- 9780190909536
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190675349.003.0009
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Chapter 9 assesses the effects of exposure to different author bylines and frames in news coverage of birth control policy. Using a series of survey experiments, this chapter identifies how exposure ...
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Chapter 9 assesses the effects of exposure to different author bylines and frames in news coverage of birth control policy. Using a series of survey experiments, this chapter identifies how exposure to the kinds of articles typically produced by male and female reporters influences media trust, political cynicism, and opinions about contraception. The results show that women asked to read articles on the contraceptive mandate written by other women viewed the media as more credible than women asked to read articles written by men. In addition, the results demonstrate that exposure to strategic game coverage significantly decreased perceptions of media credibility, enhanced feelings of political cynicism, reduced issue-specific information retention, and encouraged more frequent expressions of negativity among experimental participants. In line with previous research, the experimental results also show that support for the contraceptive mandate increased after reading an article framed around women’s health, reproductive rights, and sexual morality.Less
Chapter 9 assesses the effects of exposure to different author bylines and frames in news coverage of birth control policy. Using a series of survey experiments, this chapter identifies how exposure to the kinds of articles typically produced by male and female reporters influences media trust, political cynicism, and opinions about contraception. The results show that women asked to read articles on the contraceptive mandate written by other women viewed the media as more credible than women asked to read articles written by men. In addition, the results demonstrate that exposure to strategic game coverage significantly decreased perceptions of media credibility, enhanced feelings of political cynicism, reduced issue-specific information retention, and encouraged more frequent expressions of negativity among experimental participants. In line with previous research, the experimental results also show that support for the contraceptive mandate increased after reading an article framed around women’s health, reproductive rights, and sexual morality.
Alexandra Guisinger
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- August 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780190651824
- eISBN:
- 9780190651862
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190651824.003.0004
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Economic History
Chapter 4 provides an original explanation both for why women and minorities are more likely to express protectionist sentiments and for why those protectionist sentiments are not reflected in their ...
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Chapter 4 provides an original explanation both for why women and minorities are more likely to express protectionist sentiments and for why those protectionist sentiments are not reflected in their voting. The chapter provides an extension of standard models of individual economic well-being to consider trade’s effect not only on wages but also on employment volatility, which is increased by openness to foreign trade. The chapter offers analysis of original survey data from 2006 and 2010 and three decades of American National Election Studies to confirm the previously observed gender gap and newly identified racial gap in trade preferences. The chapter then presents two experimental surveys testing alternative causal mechanisms for the divides. Both experiments vary the type of information provided to respondents about trade partners and potential benefits of trade. In both cases, experiments show stability in women and non-whites preferences for trade and variability in white men’s preferences. Next, the chapter reinvestigates the salience of trade by gender and racial groupings and shows low salience among women and non-whites. The chapter concludes with a description of who might benefit from women and minorities stable preferences and why so few organizations seek to do so.Less
Chapter 4 provides an original explanation both for why women and minorities are more likely to express protectionist sentiments and for why those protectionist sentiments are not reflected in their voting. The chapter provides an extension of standard models of individual economic well-being to consider trade’s effect not only on wages but also on employment volatility, which is increased by openness to foreign trade. The chapter offers analysis of original survey data from 2006 and 2010 and three decades of American National Election Studies to confirm the previously observed gender gap and newly identified racial gap in trade preferences. The chapter then presents two experimental surveys testing alternative causal mechanisms for the divides. Both experiments vary the type of information provided to respondents about trade partners and potential benefits of trade. In both cases, experiments show stability in women and non-whites preferences for trade and variability in white men’s preferences. Next, the chapter reinvestigates the salience of trade by gender and racial groupings and shows low salience among women and non-whites. The chapter concludes with a description of who might benefit from women and minorities stable preferences and why so few organizations seek to do so.
Miquel Pellicer and Eva Wegner
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- July 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780190882969
- eISBN:
- 9780190887544
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190882969.003.0016
- Subject:
- Political Science, International Relations and Politics
In this chapter, Miquel Pellicer and Eva Wegner make the case for employing quantitative analysis in the study of the Middle East and North Africa. The chapter recognizes the difficulties in ...
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In this chapter, Miquel Pellicer and Eva Wegner make the case for employing quantitative analysis in the study of the Middle East and North Africa. The chapter recognizes the difficulties in obtaining good and reliable data, but employs examples of recent methodological innovations to discuss how such difficulties can be reduced. The authors also point out that quantitative methods in isolation cannot do justice to the political and social complexities of the region and in-depth qualitative knowledge is required to make sense of raw data.Less
In this chapter, Miquel Pellicer and Eva Wegner make the case for employing quantitative analysis in the study of the Middle East and North Africa. The chapter recognizes the difficulties in obtaining good and reliable data, but employs examples of recent methodological innovations to discuss how such difficulties can be reduced. The authors also point out that quantitative methods in isolation cannot do justice to the political and social complexities of the region and in-depth qualitative knowledge is required to make sense of raw data.
Alexandra Guisinger
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- August 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780190651824
- eISBN:
- 9780190651862
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190651824.003.0006
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Economic History
Chapter 6 argues that the redistributive nature of trade policy also affects individuals’ trade preferences. Trade protectionism differs from other redistributive policies both in its mechanism for ...
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Chapter 6 argues that the redistributive nature of trade policy also affects individuals’ trade preferences. Trade protectionism differs from other redistributive policies both in its mechanism for redistribution and the most common portrayal of its beneficiaries. As shown by analysis of trade-related ads from multiple election cycles, images in political ads overwhelmingly present white workers as the beneficiaries of trade protectionism. The chapter describes an original survey experiment that found whites’ support for trade protection depended on the depicted race of trade protection beneficiaries in a newspaper article provided to survey respondents. Analysis of three decades of US public opinion data provides evidence that white support of redistribution via trade protection is higher and support for redistribution via welfare is lower in communities where high levels of racial diversity heighten in- and out-group dynamics. The chapter concludes with a discussion the mobilization of race-based protectionist sentiment in the 2016 election cycle.Less
Chapter 6 argues that the redistributive nature of trade policy also affects individuals’ trade preferences. Trade protectionism differs from other redistributive policies both in its mechanism for redistribution and the most common portrayal of its beneficiaries. As shown by analysis of trade-related ads from multiple election cycles, images in political ads overwhelmingly present white workers as the beneficiaries of trade protectionism. The chapter describes an original survey experiment that found whites’ support for trade protection depended on the depicted race of trade protection beneficiaries in a newspaper article provided to survey respondents. Analysis of three decades of US public opinion data provides evidence that white support of redistribution via trade protection is higher and support for redistribution via welfare is lower in communities where high levels of racial diversity heighten in- and out-group dynamics. The chapter concludes with a discussion the mobilization of race-based protectionist sentiment in the 2016 election cycle.
Michele F. Margolis
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780226555645
- eISBN:
- 9780226555812
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- University of Chicago Press
- DOI:
- 10.7208/chicago/9780226555812.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Chapter 7 tests the life-cycle theory on African Americans and explores the political consequences of their unique constellation of identities—as both ardent Democrats and frequent churchgoers. ...
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Chapter 7 tests the life-cycle theory on African Americans and explores the political consequences of their unique constellation of identities—as both ardent Democrats and frequent churchgoers. Because African-American religious traditions are frequently consistent with Democratic economic messages, African Americans may not feel pressure to update their religious or political attachments in the same way that white Americans might. We should therefore expect that the life-cycle theory will have different implications for African Americans. Whereas African Americans should undergo similar religious life-cycle experiences—decreasing religiosity in young adulthood and then increasing religious involvement in adulthood—they should not necessarily feel that their religious and political leanings are in conflict. Empirical tests bear out these expectations. The chapter then considers the political consequences of African Americans' religious and political attachments. The results from two experiments show that although African Americans are comfortable with religion and politics mixing, as one might expect from a highly religious group, they are not open to this mix when Republicans are doing the mixing. This occurs because the political values valorized in black Protestantism differ from those emphasized by religious denominations and groups associated with the Republican Party.Less
Chapter 7 tests the life-cycle theory on African Americans and explores the political consequences of their unique constellation of identities—as both ardent Democrats and frequent churchgoers. Because African-American religious traditions are frequently consistent with Democratic economic messages, African Americans may not feel pressure to update their religious or political attachments in the same way that white Americans might. We should therefore expect that the life-cycle theory will have different implications for African Americans. Whereas African Americans should undergo similar religious life-cycle experiences—decreasing religiosity in young adulthood and then increasing religious involvement in adulthood—they should not necessarily feel that their religious and political leanings are in conflict. Empirical tests bear out these expectations. The chapter then considers the political consequences of African Americans' religious and political attachments. The results from two experiments show that although African Americans are comfortable with religion and politics mixing, as one might expect from a highly religious group, they are not open to this mix when Republicans are doing the mixing. This occurs because the political values valorized in black Protestantism differ from those emphasized by religious denominations and groups associated with the Republican Party.
Pradeep K. Chhibber and Rahul Verma
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- September 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780190623876
- eISBN:
- 9780190623913
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190623876.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter shows that opposition to reservations is an ideological dimension of Indian politics. This opposition is not merely reflective of upper-caste Hindus’ prejudices against Muslims, Dalits, ...
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This chapter shows that opposition to reservations is an ideological dimension of Indian politics. This opposition is not merely reflective of upper-caste Hindus’ prejudices against Muslims, Dalits, and other backward castes, though the influence of policy related concerns cannot be denied. We assess the influence of ideology and prejudice on citizen attitudes through two small election surveys conducted in Delhi and a very large survey experiments with over 15,000 respondents carried out in Uttar Pradesh. We find that both prejudice and opposition to reservations on the grounds of policy influence whether a group supports reservations for the other group or not. We also find that prejudice against Muslims is widespread among all caste groups.Less
This chapter shows that opposition to reservations is an ideological dimension of Indian politics. This opposition is not merely reflective of upper-caste Hindus’ prejudices against Muslims, Dalits, and other backward castes, though the influence of policy related concerns cannot be denied. We assess the influence of ideology and prejudice on citizen attitudes through two small election surveys conducted in Delhi and a very large survey experiments with over 15,000 respondents carried out in Uttar Pradesh. We find that both prejudice and opposition to reservations on the grounds of policy influence whether a group supports reservations for the other group or not. We also find that prejudice against Muslims is widespread among all caste groups.
Kim L. Fridkin and Patrick J. Kenney
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- May 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780190947569
- eISBN:
- 9780190947606
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190947569.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Chapter 6 presents the results of a national survey experiment conducted during the 2014 senatorial elections that validates central elements of the tolerance and tactics theory of negativity. First, ...
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Chapter 6 presents the results of a national survey experiment conducted during the 2014 senatorial elections that validates central elements of the tolerance and tactics theory of negativity. First, people with low levels of tolerance for negativity are more likely to see incivility in negative messages and view negative messages as less usefulcompared to citizens who tolerate negative campaigning more easily. Second, the importance of tolerance for negativity holds up, even when controlling for important political predispositions, such as party attachment and attitudes about the issues. These findings demonstrate that tolerance for negativity is different from people’s partisan and policy profile. Third, the importance of tolerance for negativity is critical during the throes of the campaign as well as after the campaign has ended and all votes are tallied. These results indicate that tolerance for negativity is not a transient phenomenon active only during electoral campaigns.Less
Chapter 6 presents the results of a national survey experiment conducted during the 2014 senatorial elections that validates central elements of the tolerance and tactics theory of negativity. First, people with low levels of tolerance for negativity are more likely to see incivility in negative messages and view negative messages as less usefulcompared to citizens who tolerate negative campaigning more easily. Second, the importance of tolerance for negativity holds up, even when controlling for important political predispositions, such as party attachment and attitudes about the issues. These findings demonstrate that tolerance for negativity is different from people’s partisan and policy profile. Third, the importance of tolerance for negativity is critical during the throes of the campaign as well as after the campaign has ended and all votes are tallied. These results indicate that tolerance for negativity is not a transient phenomenon active only during electoral campaigns.
Karisa Cloward
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- March 2016
- ISBN:
- 9780190274917
- eISBN:
- 9780190274955
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190274917.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, International Relations and Politics, Comparative Politics
This chapter focuses on rhetorical and secondary behavioral change. It finds that many individuals take steps to misrepresent or hide their true attitudes and behavior with respect to FGM and early ...
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This chapter focuses on rhetorical and secondary behavioral change. It finds that many individuals take steps to misrepresent or hide their true attitudes and behavior with respect to FGM and early marriage, and that they are motivated to do this by both reputational and material considerations. The survey experiment shows that individuals are willing to make false rhetorical commitments to international norms when they encounter an international audience, and the qualitative interviews show a propensity both for rhetorical misrepresentation to international activists and for actively hiding local norm compliance from local activists and authorities. However, these types of activities occur primarily in communities that have experienced significant exposure to the relevant international norms.Less
This chapter focuses on rhetorical and secondary behavioral change. It finds that many individuals take steps to misrepresent or hide their true attitudes and behavior with respect to FGM and early marriage, and that they are motivated to do this by both reputational and material considerations. The survey experiment shows that individuals are willing to make false rhetorical commitments to international norms when they encounter an international audience, and the qualitative interviews show a propensity both for rhetorical misrepresentation to international activists and for actively hiding local norm compliance from local activists and authorities. However, these types of activities occur primarily in communities that have experienced significant exposure to the relevant international norms.
Jeffrey A. Friedman
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- April 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780190938024
- eISBN:
- 9780190938055
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190938024.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, International Relations and Politics
This chapter explores the politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs, particularly the notion that clear probability assessments expose foreign policy analysts to excessive criticism. ...
More
This chapter explores the politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs, particularly the notion that clear probability assessments expose foreign policy analysts to excessive criticism. Although this idea is widespread among scholars and practitioners of international relations, there is just as much reason to believe that the opposite is true. If foreign policy discourse is truly as polarized as the conventional wisdom suggests, then leaving key judgments vague could actually increase blame exposure by giving critics the opportunity to make ambiguous statements seem more mistaken than they really are. The chapter supports this claim by combing experimental evidence in a historical review of perceived intelligence failures such as the Bay of Pigs invasion, the Yom Kippur War, and assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs.Less
This chapter explores the politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs, particularly the notion that clear probability assessments expose foreign policy analysts to excessive criticism. Although this idea is widespread among scholars and practitioners of international relations, there is just as much reason to believe that the opposite is true. If foreign policy discourse is truly as polarized as the conventional wisdom suggests, then leaving key judgments vague could actually increase blame exposure by giving critics the opportunity to make ambiguous statements seem more mistaken than they really are. The chapter supports this claim by combing experimental evidence in a historical review of perceived intelligence failures such as the Bay of Pigs invasion, the Yom Kippur War, and assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs.
Pradeep K. Chhibber and Rahul Verma
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- September 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780190623876
- eISBN:
- 9780190623913
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190623876.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
A common view is that in Indian elections parties, politicians, and voters are engaged in a quid-pro-quo in which citizens vote for a politician who offers them individual benefits. We find no ...
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A common view is that in Indian elections parties, politicians, and voters are engaged in a quid-pro-quo in which citizens vote for a politician who offers them individual benefits. We find no evidence that voters exchange votes for benefits. In fact, ideology is a better predictor of the vote than the receipt of private or club goods. The use of cash is indeed widespread in India during election time but money is needed to build the campaign, to mobilize votes and for candidates, and to establish candidates’ credibility as leaders of import. We show this using the survey data from national election studies, a case study, and the results of a small experiment in Tamil Nadu.Less
A common view is that in Indian elections parties, politicians, and voters are engaged in a quid-pro-quo in which citizens vote for a politician who offers them individual benefits. We find no evidence that voters exchange votes for benefits. In fact, ideology is a better predictor of the vote than the receipt of private or club goods. The use of cash is indeed widespread in India during election time but money is needed to build the campaign, to mobilize votes and for candidates, and to establish candidates’ credibility as leaders of import. We show this using the survey data from national election studies, a case study, and the results of a small experiment in Tamil Nadu.
Jeffrey A. Friedman
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- April 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780190938024
- eISBN:
- 9780190938055
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190938024.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, International Relations and Politics
War and Chance analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are ...
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War and Chance analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the book shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision. The book substantiates this argument by examining critical episodes in the history of U.S. national security policy, such as strategic planning in Vietnam, assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs, and the search for Osama bin Laden. The book also draws on a diverse range of quantitative evidence, including a database containing nearly one million geopolitical forecasts and experimental studies involving hundreds of national security professionals.Less
War and Chance analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the book shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision. The book substantiates this argument by examining critical episodes in the history of U.S. national security policy, such as strategic planning in Vietnam, assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs, and the search for Osama bin Laden. The book also draws on a diverse range of quantitative evidence, including a database containing nearly one million geopolitical forecasts and experimental studies involving hundreds of national security professionals.
