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Subjective Probabilities Inferred from Decisions

Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss

in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
January 2009
ISBN:
9780195322989
eISBN:
9780199869206
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0005
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter shows that if the subjective probabilities of a set of events of which one must happen and not more than one can happen must add up to a specified constant (usually taken as one for ... More


Behavioral Decision Theory

Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss

in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
January 2009
ISBN:
9780195322989
eISBN:
9780199869206
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0002
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

In 1954, Ward published a review article covering the psychological and economic theories of riskless and risky decision making, the theory of games, and the experiments relating to these theories. ... More


 Keeping Up to Date

Ken Binmore

in Playing for Real: Game Theory

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
May 2007
ISBN:
9780195300574
eISBN:
9780199783748
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300574.003.0013
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter is about Bayesian decision theory. It explains why game theorists model players' beliefs using subjective probability distributions, and how these beliefs are updated using Bayes' rule ... More


Subjective Probabilities in Medical Diagnosis

Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss

in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
January 2009
ISBN:
9780195322989
eISBN:
9780199869206
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0021
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter argues that computer-aided medical diagnosis can become an effective and economically feasible tool through the routine use of appropriately obtained physician estimates of likelihoods. ... More


Subjective Probabilities

John L. Pollock

in Thinking about Acting: Logical Foundations for Rational Decision Making

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195304817
eISBN:
9780199850907
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195304817.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind

This chapter examines subjective probabilities. Historically, theories of objective probability came first. Subjective probability theory arose as a response to difficulties encountered in making ... More


Statistical Thought: A Perspective and History

Shoutir Kishore Chatterjee

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780198525318
eISBN:
9780191711657
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198525318.001.0001
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

The book examines the distinguishing features of the various contending approaches to statistical inference (including decision-making) that are currently available in statistical literature, and ... More


 The Probabilistic Way

Wolfgang Spohn

in The Laws of Belief: Ranking Theory and Its Philosophical Applications

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
September 2012
ISBN:
9780199697502
eISBN:
9780191739323
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697502.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

Probability theory will provide the all-important guide-line and standard of comparison of ranking theory, as it will be developed in this book. Therefore, this chapter provides a short introduction ... More


Entitlement: The Basis for Empirical Epistemic Warrant

Tyler Burge

in Epistemic Entitlement

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
March 2020
ISBN:
9780198713524
eISBN:
9780191781940
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198713524.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, American Philosophy

The chapter is comprised of five sections. First, it situates knowledge and epistemic warrant in a frame of representational and epistemic norms. It distinguishes two types of epistemic ... More


Probability

Richard Swinburne

in Epistemic Justification

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199243792
eISBN:
9780191598524
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199243794.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Physical probability is a measure of the extent to which an event is predetermined by its causes. Statistical probability is a measure of the proportion of events of some kind in a population; I ... More


Objective Epistemic Probability

Peter Achinstein

in The Book of Evidence

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195143898
eISBN:
9780199833023
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195143892.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

A new concept of probability ‐ objective epistemic probability ‐ is introduced and defended. It is epistemic because it is a measure of the degree of reasonableness of believing something; it is ... More


The Equation

Jonathan Bennett

in A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199258871
eISBN:
9780191597046
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199258872.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language

The Ramsey test for indicative conditionals suggests that they are to be understood in terms of subjective probability. This concept is explained, and elements of probability logic expounded. ... More


Dutch Book Arguments *

Alan Hájek

in The Handbook of Rational and Social Choice

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
May 2009
ISBN:
9780199290420
eISBN:
9780191710506
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199290420.003.0008
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Public and Welfare

Dutch Book arguments purport to show that rationality requires certain constraints on an agent's subjective probabilities, on pain of the agent being susceptible to sure losses in corresponding bets. ... More


Incorporation

Adrienne M. Martin

in How We Hope: A Moral Psychology

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691151526
eISBN:
9781400848706
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691151526.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

This chapter further elaborates the incorporation analysis. Hope does indeed involve the basic elements of the orthodox definition—the desire for an outcome and a subjective probability estimate ... More


The Subjectivity of Indicative Conditionals

Jonathan Bennett

in A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199258871
eISBN:
9780191597046
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199258872.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language

Discussion of reasons for approaching indicative conditionals in terms of subjective rather than objective probability. The reasons include stand‐offs of the sort Gibbard has presented: cases where ... More


The Equation Attacked

Jonathan Bennett

in A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199258871
eISBN:
9780191597046
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199258872.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language

Presents and evaluates a series of attacks on The Equation, i.e. the view that an indicative conditional ‘If A, C’ is a proposition whose subjective probability for you is always your conditional ... More


Development of a Unified Theory of Meaning and Action

Ernie Lepore and Kirk Ludwig

in Donald Davidson: Meaning, Truth, Language, and Reality

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780199251346
eISBN:
9780191602634
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199251347.003.0017
Subject:
Philosophy, General

Explains a development in Davidson’s account of the procedures of the radical interpreter which involves bringing to bear more explicitly the constraints imposed by the framework of decision theory ... More


Taking the Prior Seriously: Bayesian Analysis without Subjective Probability

Daniel Goodman

in The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226789552
eISBN:
9780226789583
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226789583.003.0012
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

Decision theory requires the assignment of probabilities for the different possible states of nature. Bayesian inference provides such probabilities, but at the cost of requiring prior probabilities ... More


The Folly of Trying to Define Truth

Donald Davidson

in Truth, Language, and History: Philosophical Essays Volume 5

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780198237570
eISBN:
9780191602610
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/019823757X.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, General

This essay argues that the concept of truth as well as related subjects of philosophical inquiry such as knowledge, belief, intention, and memory cannot be reduced to more elementary concepts, since ... More


The Humean Thesis on Belief

Hannes Leitgeb and Hannes Leitgeb

in The Stability of Belief: How Rational Belief Coheres with Probability

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
April 2017
ISBN:
9780198732631
eISBN:
9780191796852
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198732631.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

This chapter defends what is called the Humean thesis on belief: a perfectly rational agent believes a proposition just in case she has a stably high degree of belief in it. The thesis is motivated ... More


Subjective Probability and International Politics

Jeffrey A. Friedman

in War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
April 2019
ISBN:
9780190938024
eISBN:
9780190938055
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190938024.003.0003
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter explores the theoretical foundations of assessing uncertainty in international politics. It begins by explaining that virtually all important assessments of uncertainty in international ... More


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