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The US Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Soviet Intentions: The Collapse of Détente

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. intelligence organizations to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union. Drawing on National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) produced on the Soviet ... More


The US Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Soviet Intentions: The End of the Cold War

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0011
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. intelligence organizations to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union. Drawing on National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) produced on the Soviet ... More


Theories of Intentions and the Problem of Attention

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0002
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter outlines the theoretical foundations of the selective attention thesis and three competing ones: the capabilities, strategic military doctrine, and behavior theses. It divides perceived ... More


Indicators of Soviet Intentions and the End of the Cold War, 1985–88

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0009
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by the Reagan administration to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union between 1985 and 1988. Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency in 1981 after an ... More


The Carter Era and the Collapse of Détente, 1977–80

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter discusses the relevant predictions of the alternative theses about how states should assess intentions by analyzing the case of the Carter administration during the period 1977–1980. ... More


Indicators of Nazi Germany’s Intentions and the Coming of World War I, 1934–39

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0003
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter focuses on British assessments of Nazi Germany’s intentions during the interwar period (1934–1939). It outlines the predictions generated by each of the four explanations about perceived ... More


US Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Soviet Intentions: The Collapse of Détente

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0007
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. President Jimmy Carter and two key decision makers in his administration, National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus ... More


US Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Soviet Intentions: The End of the Cold War

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0010
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. President Jimmy Carter and two key decision makers in his administration, National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus ... More


British Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Nazi Germany’s Intentions

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the evolution of the views held by Britain’s key decision makers, including Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden and Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, about Nazi Germany’s ... More


Introduction

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0001
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This book explores the question of how policy makers gauge their adversaries’ intentions and the implications of such intentions assessment for international relations and world affairs. It advances ... More


Summary and Implications

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0012
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter summarizes the book's empirical findings and explains their practical policy implications as well as their significance for international relations theory. The selective attention thesis ... More


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