D. A. Wood and K. Kotseva
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- September 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780198525738
- eISBN:
- 9780191724114
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198525738.003.0040
- Subject:
- Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology
This chapter discusses risk scores for cardiovascular disease. Topics covered include the concept of cardiovascular risk, CVD prevention strategies and absolute multifactorial risk, advantages and ...
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This chapter discusses risk scores for cardiovascular disease. Topics covered include the concept of cardiovascular risk, CVD prevention strategies and absolute multifactorial risk, advantages and disadvantages of absolute risk prediction, calculation of CVD risk, comparison of risk prediction method, and application of absolute risk to management of blood pressure and lipids.Less
This chapter discusses risk scores for cardiovascular disease. Topics covered include the concept of cardiovascular risk, CVD prevention strategies and absolute multifactorial risk, advantages and disadvantages of absolute risk prediction, calculation of CVD risk, comparison of risk prediction method, and application of absolute risk to management of blood pressure and lipids.
Romney B. Duffey
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- September 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780226319285
- eISBN:
- 9780226921969
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- University of Chicago Press
- DOI:
- 10.7208/chicago/9780226921969.003.0008
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Econometrics
This chapter analyzes world economic data in order to predict the next crisis probability based on the presence and influence of human risk taking and decision making in financial markets. It ...
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This chapter analyzes world economic data in order to predict the next crisis probability based on the presence and influence of human risk taking and decision making in financial markets. It summarizes recent ideas on risk prediction for multiple technological systems using existing data, and explicitly includes the key impact of human involvement using the learning hypothesis. It is argued that risk is caused by uncertainty, and the measure of uncertainty is probability. The risk of an outcome (accident, event, error, or failure) is never zero, and the possibility of an outcome always exists, with a chance given by the future (posterior) probability. The key is to include the human involvement, and to create and use the correct and relevant measures for experience, learning, complexity, and risk exposure. A commentary is also provided at the end of the chapter.Less
This chapter analyzes world economic data in order to predict the next crisis probability based on the presence and influence of human risk taking and decision making in financial markets. It summarizes recent ideas on risk prediction for multiple technological systems using existing data, and explicitly includes the key impact of human involvement using the learning hypothesis. It is argued that risk is caused by uncertainty, and the measure of uncertainty is probability. The risk of an outcome (accident, event, error, or failure) is never zero, and the possibility of an outcome always exists, with a chance given by the future (posterior) probability. The key is to include the human involvement, and to create and use the correct and relevant measures for experience, learning, complexity, and risk exposure. A commentary is also provided at the end of the chapter.
Emily C. Nacol
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- January 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780691165103
- eISBN:
- 9781400883011
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691165103.001.0001
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Political Philosophy
This book shows that risk, now treated as a permanent feature of our lives, did not always govern understandings of the future. Focusing on the epistemological, political, and economic writings of ...
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This book shows that risk, now treated as a permanent feature of our lives, did not always govern understandings of the future. Focusing on the epistemological, political, and economic writings of Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, David Hume, and Adam Smith, the book explains that in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Britain, political and economic thinkers reimagined the future as a terrain of risk, characterized by probabilistic calculation, prediction, and control. In these early modern sources, the book contends, we see three crucial developments in thought on risk and politics. While early modern thinkers differentiated uncertainty about the future from probabilistic calculations of risk, they remained attentive to the ways uncertainty and risk remained in a conceptual tangle, a problem that constrained good decision making. They developed sophisticated theories of trust and credit as crucial background conditions for prudent risk-taking, and offered complex depictions of the relationships and behaviors that would make risk-taking more palatable. They also developed two narratives that persist in subsequent accounts of risk—risk as a threat to security, and risk as an opportunity for profit. Looking at how these narratives are entwined in early modern thought, the book locates the origins of our own ambivalence about risk-taking. By the end of the eighteenth century, a new type of political actor would emerge from this ambivalence, one who approached risk with fear rather than hope. By placing a fresh lens on early modern writing, the book demonstrates how new and evolving orientations toward risk influenced approaches to politics and commerce that continue to this day.Less
This book shows that risk, now treated as a permanent feature of our lives, did not always govern understandings of the future. Focusing on the epistemological, political, and economic writings of Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, David Hume, and Adam Smith, the book explains that in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Britain, political and economic thinkers reimagined the future as a terrain of risk, characterized by probabilistic calculation, prediction, and control. In these early modern sources, the book contends, we see three crucial developments in thought on risk and politics. While early modern thinkers differentiated uncertainty about the future from probabilistic calculations of risk, they remained attentive to the ways uncertainty and risk remained in a conceptual tangle, a problem that constrained good decision making. They developed sophisticated theories of trust and credit as crucial background conditions for prudent risk-taking, and offered complex depictions of the relationships and behaviors that would make risk-taking more palatable. They also developed two narratives that persist in subsequent accounts of risk—risk as a threat to security, and risk as an opportunity for profit. Looking at how these narratives are entwined in early modern thought, the book locates the origins of our own ambivalence about risk-taking. By the end of the eighteenth century, a new type of political actor would emerge from this ambivalence, one who approached risk with fear rather than hope. By placing a fresh lens on early modern writing, the book demonstrates how new and evolving orientations toward risk influenced approaches to politics and commerce that continue to this day.
Simon Lilley, Geoffrey Lightfoot, and Paulo Amaral M. N.
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- October 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780198775416
- eISBN:
- 9780191695360
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198775416.001.0001
- Subject:
- Business and Management, Information Technology, Organization Studies
This textbook provides an accessible theoretical analysis of the organizational impact of information technologies. It seeks to examine and comment upon the myriad ways in which actors, ...
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This textbook provides an accessible theoretical analysis of the organizational impact of information technologies. It seeks to examine and comment upon the myriad ways in which actors, organizations, and environments are represented through these technologies. Contemporary threats to organizational form and stability are considered alongside the potential that information technologies offer to both exacerbate and overcome them. It examines, amongst others, issues surrounding the material and symbolic aspects of information systems; risk and prediction; systems implementation and systems success; knowledge management practices; accountability and other management practices; computerised modelling; and virtual organization. To this end it deploys a number of different theoretical lenses including: systems theory, social constructivism, labour process theory, post-structuralism, and actor network theory. These offer complementary and contrasting insights into the computerisation of managerial work. In order to ensure that the book is both relevant and approachable to students from a range of backgrounds, these theories are applied to real examples of the development and implementation of information systems. This combination fosters practical knowledge that is theoretically informed. The book thus aims to bridge the gap between the abstractions of current theories of organization and the grounded material that forms the bulk of Information Systems literature. It offers a novel way into the ongoing debates surrounding technological change and the perennial problems of managerial control.Less
This textbook provides an accessible theoretical analysis of the organizational impact of information technologies. It seeks to examine and comment upon the myriad ways in which actors, organizations, and environments are represented through these technologies. Contemporary threats to organizational form and stability are considered alongside the potential that information technologies offer to both exacerbate and overcome them. It examines, amongst others, issues surrounding the material and symbolic aspects of information systems; risk and prediction; systems implementation and systems success; knowledge management practices; accountability and other management practices; computerised modelling; and virtual organization. To this end it deploys a number of different theoretical lenses including: systems theory, social constructivism, labour process theory, post-structuralism, and actor network theory. These offer complementary and contrasting insights into the computerisation of managerial work. In order to ensure that the book is both relevant and approachable to students from a range of backgrounds, these theories are applied to real examples of the development and implementation of information systems. This combination fosters practical knowledge that is theoretically informed. The book thus aims to bridge the gap between the abstractions of current theories of organization and the grounded material that forms the bulk of Information Systems literature. It offers a novel way into the ongoing debates surrounding technological change and the perennial problems of managerial control.
Martin P. Paulus, Crane Huang, and Katia M. Harlé
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- May 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780262035422
- eISBN:
- 9780262337854
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- The MIT Press
- DOI:
- 10.7551/mitpress/9780262035422.003.0014
- Subject:
- Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience
Biological psychiatry is at an impasse. Despite several decades of intense research, few, if any, biological parameters have contributed to a significant improvement in the life of a psychiatric ...
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Biological psychiatry is at an impasse. Despite several decades of intense research, few, if any, biological parameters have contributed to a significant improvement in the life of a psychiatric patient. It is argued that this impasse may be a consequence of an obsessive focus on mechanisms. Alternatively, a risk prediction framework provides a more pragmatic approach, because it aims to develop tests and measures which generate clinically useful information. Computational approaches may have an important role to play here. This chapter presents an example of a risk-prediction framework, which shows that computational approaches provide a significant predictive advantage. Future directions and challenges are highlighted.Less
Biological psychiatry is at an impasse. Despite several decades of intense research, few, if any, biological parameters have contributed to a significant improvement in the life of a psychiatric patient. It is argued that this impasse may be a consequence of an obsessive focus on mechanisms. Alternatively, a risk prediction framework provides a more pragmatic approach, because it aims to develop tests and measures which generate clinically useful information. Computational approaches may have an important role to play here. This chapter presents an example of a risk-prediction framework, which shows that computational approaches provide a significant predictive advantage. Future directions and challenges are highlighted.
Richard S. Frase and Julian V. Roberts
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- August 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780190254001
- eISBN:
- 9780190254025
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190254001.003.0004
- Subject:
- Law, Criminal Law and Criminology, Constitutional and Administrative Law
If prior record enhancements are justified as a way to manage offender risk, policymakers need to consider other, non-record risk factors that may improve risk-prediction accuracy. This chapter ...
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If prior record enhancements are justified as a way to manage offender risk, policymakers need to consider other, non-record risk factors that may improve risk-prediction accuracy. This chapter examines the limited extent to which guidelines systems have incorporated such factors—usually as a ground for departure or other adjustment after the recommended sentence has been determined based on current offense and prior record. The chapter summarizes the offense factors and non-criminal-history offender factors, such as the offender’s current age and criminal thinking patterns, that criminological research has found to be good predictors of the risk of re-offending, and that are often included in widely used risk assessment instruments such as the Salient Factor Score, CSRA, and LSI-R. Very few of these non-record risk factors have been given a formal role in guidelines sentencing. The chapter argues that judges should be allowed to consider some of these factors, especially older age.Less
If prior record enhancements are justified as a way to manage offender risk, policymakers need to consider other, non-record risk factors that may improve risk-prediction accuracy. This chapter examines the limited extent to which guidelines systems have incorporated such factors—usually as a ground for departure or other adjustment after the recommended sentence has been determined based on current offense and prior record. The chapter summarizes the offense factors and non-criminal-history offender factors, such as the offender’s current age and criminal thinking patterns, that criminological research has found to be good predictors of the risk of re-offending, and that are often included in widely used risk assessment instruments such as the Salient Factor Score, CSRA, and LSI-R. Very few of these non-record risk factors have been given a formal role in guidelines sentencing. The chapter argues that judges should be allowed to consider some of these factors, especially older age.
Richard S. Frase and Julian V. Roberts
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- August 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780190254001
- eISBN:
- 9780190254025
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190254001.003.0003
- Subject:
- Law, Criminal Law and Criminology, Constitutional and Administrative Law
It is generally assumed that prior convictions provide a useful proxy for the offender’s risk of committing further crimes, and as a general proposition that assumption is well supported by research. ...
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It is generally assumed that prior convictions provide a useful proxy for the offender’s risk of committing further crimes, and as a general proposition that assumption is well supported by research. But as this chapter shows, there is much less research on how well particular prior record formulas predict recidivism risk. This chapter identifies the elements of guidelines criminal history scores that appear to be designed to measure risk, reviews the limited research assessing the accuracy of criminal history scores and score components as predictors of subsequent offending, and examines the closeness of fit between predicted increases in risk, as the criminal history score rises, and the increments in sentence severity that are prescribed by grid-based guidelines systems. The chapter also argues against the use of rigid prior record enhancement formulas, and in favor of giving judges power to adjust sentences to take into account case-specific variations in recidivism risk.Less
It is generally assumed that prior convictions provide a useful proxy for the offender’s risk of committing further crimes, and as a general proposition that assumption is well supported by research. But as this chapter shows, there is much less research on how well particular prior record formulas predict recidivism risk. This chapter identifies the elements of guidelines criminal history scores that appear to be designed to measure risk, reviews the limited research assessing the accuracy of criminal history scores and score components as predictors of subsequent offending, and examines the closeness of fit between predicted increases in risk, as the criminal history score rises, and the increments in sentence severity that are prescribed by grid-based guidelines systems. The chapter also argues against the use of rigid prior record enhancement formulas, and in favor of giving judges power to adjust sentences to take into account case-specific variations in recidivism risk.
