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Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social science methods have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, ... More


Converting from Descriptive Analysis to Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0016
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The results of existing statistical analysis can sometimes be used to estimate the parameters in quantitatively predictive logical models. This is important, because it expands the value of ... More


The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’ — the product of the assembly size and district magnitude. The number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the fourth root of the seat ... More


Beyond Constraint‐Based Models: Communication Channels and Growth Rates

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0011
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The number of communication channels may well turn out to be a major building block in constructing quantitatively predictive logical models in social sciences. This number does determine ... More


The Mean Duration of Cabinets

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0010
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

Again the quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’. The inverse square law of cabinet durations says that the mean cabinet duration in a country is approximately forty-two years divided by the square ... More


The Law of Minority Attrition

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0013
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The more important levels have fewer positions, and the share of minorities goes down. The law of minority attrition is a quantitatively predictive logical model that expresses it more precisely. A ... More


Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0009
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

As with Chapter 8, the ‘seat product’ is the important quantity to watch. The effective number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the sixth root of the seat product. The average ... More


Size and Politics

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0012
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The cube root law of assembly sizes applies to first or only chambers. It says that assembly size is approximately the cube root of the country's population, because this size minimizes the workload ... More


The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0014
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

Using nothing but the product of assembly size and district magnitude, a quantitatively predictive logical model allows us to estimate the average effective number of parties based on votes. Average ... More


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