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Inference Networks: Bayes and Wigmore

PHILIP DAWID, DAVID SCHUM, and AMANDA HEPLER

in Evidence, Inference and Enquiry

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
January 2013
ISBN:
9780197264843
eISBN:
9780191754050
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197264843.003.0005
Subject:
Sociology, Methodology and Statistics

Methods for performing complex probabilistic reasoning tasks, often based on masses of different forms of evidence obtained from a variety of different sources, are being sought by, and developed ... More


Health risks and probabilistic reasoning

Bob Heyman

in Risk, Safety and Clinical Practice: Health care through the lens of risk

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
February 2010
ISBN:
9780198569008
eISBN:
9780191717499
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198569008.003.04
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

This chapter discusses inductive probabilistic reasoning, considered as one method for developing expectations about future or otherwise uncertain outcomes. It argues that although inductive ... More


Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking

Mike Oaksford and Nick Chater (eds)

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199233298
eISBN:
9780191696602
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199233298.001.0001
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

The conditional, if…then, is probably the most important term in natural language and forms the core of systems of logic and mental representation. It occurs in all human languages and allows people ... More


Risk, Safety and Clinical Practice: Health care through the lens of risk

Bob Heyman, Andy Alaszewski, Monica Shaw, and Mike Titterton

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
February 2010
ISBN:
9780198569008
eISBN:
9780191717499
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198569008.001.0001
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

All too often, service users, health professionals, policy makers, educators, and researchers draw upon risk management frameworks without reflecting critically on their assumptions or limitations. ... More


Probabilities, Odds, and Risks: Predispositions and Provocations as Causes

Peter V. Rabins

in The Why of Things: Causality in Science, Medicine, and Life

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231164726
eISBN:
9780231535458
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231164726.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

This chapter describes the probabilistic model, in which causes are conceptualized as events that affect the likelihood that another event will occur. In this model, causes act as influences, risk ... More


Which Truth? The Power of Numeric Indicators and Probabilistic Reasoning about Public Debt

Kenneth Dyson

in States, Debt, and Power: 'Saints' and 'Sinners' in European History and Integration

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780198714071
eISBN:
9780191782558
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198714071.003.0015
Subject:
Political Science, European Union

This chapter considers the nature of the discourse about public debt, from the two perspectives of political legitimacy and of financial markets. It analyses and assesses the power of numeric ... More


Associations among the Subtests: A Short-Form CART

Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, and Maggie E. Toplak

in The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780262034845
eISBN:
9780262336819
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034845.003.0012
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Chapter 12 describes a large-scale study of the short-form version of the CART. The short-form is composed of 11 of the 20 subtests and can be completed in less than two hours by most subjects. The ... More


Probabilistic and Statistical Reasoning

Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, and Maggie E. Toplak

in The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780262034845
eISBN:
9780262336819
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034845.003.0005
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Chapter 5 begins a series of chapters that describe subtests of the CART. In this chapter, the Probabilistic and Statistical Reasoning subtest is described. The reason for each of the task-types ... More


The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking

Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, and Maggie E. Toplak

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780262034845
eISBN:
9780262336819
Item type:
book
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034845.001.0001
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This book shows that rational thinking, like intelligence, is a measurable cognitive competence. Drawing on theoretical work and empirical research from the last two decades, The Rationality Quotient ... More


A case study of swine flu and concluding remarks

Bob Heyman, Monica Shaw, and Andy Alaszewski

in Risk, Safety and Clinical Practice: Health care through the lens of risk

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
February 2010
ISBN:
9780198569008
eISBN:
9780191717499
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198569008.003.010
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

This chapter offers a case study of responses to the 2009 swine flu pandemic in order to illustrate the themes of the book. For example, categorization issues emerged around controversy over whether ... More


Reasoning

Phil Johnson-Laird

in Inside Psychology: A science over 50 years

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199228768
eISBN:
9780191696336
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199228768.003.0013
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter examimes changes and developments in the study of reasoning. It discusses the recognition and acceptance of the notion that reasoning depends on constructing mental models of situations, ... More


Heads or tails: Probability of an event

Iwo Białynicki-Birula and Iwona Białynicka-Birula

in Modeling Reality: How Computers Mirror Life

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
January 2010
ISBN:
9780198531005
eISBN:
9780191713033
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198531005.003.0003
Subject:
Physics, Theoretical, Computational, and Statistical Physics

Probabilistic reasoning permeates many branches of science — from rigorous mathematics, through physics, chemistry and biology to engineering, medicine, and social sciences. Even though the basic ... More


From the Practical to the Theoretical

Jonathan Dancy

in Practical Shape: A Theory of Practical Reasoning

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
July 2018
ISBN:
9780198805441
eISBN:
9780191843518
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198805441.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter shows how the various forms of theoretical reasoning—in particular, formal and probabilistic—can perfectly well be understood in the sort of way in which we are now understanding ... More


Introduction

Leonard Neidorf

in The Transmission of "Beowulf": Language, Culture, and Scribal Behavior

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
January 2018
ISBN:
9781501705113
eISBN:
9781501708282
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Cornell University Press
DOI:
10.7591/cornell/9781501705113.003.0001
Subject:
Literature, Early and Medieval Literature

This chapter raises the main philological questions regarding the transmission of Beowulf. It introduces the prevailing scholarship on the poem’s philology, such as the duration of its transmission, ... More


The Cultural Context of Insurance in the West

Geoffrey Clark

in Managing Risk in Reinsurance: From City Fires to Global Warming

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
December 2016
ISBN:
9780198754916
eISBN:
9780191816406
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198754916.003.0002
Subject:
Business and Management, Finance, Accounting, and Banking, International Business

Geoffrey Clark’s chapter on the culture of insurance describes the changes that came about with the advent of modern insurance especially in Britain in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, and ... More


Phenomenal Conservatism, Skeptical Theism, and Probabilistic Reasoning

Trent Dougherty

in Skeptical Theism: New Essays

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780199661183
eISBN:
9780191785566
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199661183.003.0002
Subject:
Religion, Religious Studies, Philosophy of Religion

This chapter goes through a dynamic modeling process which is perfectly general, and shows that even granting pretty much everything Matheson claims as premises in this volume, phenomenal ... More


The Mind Set Free: Preparing a Liberal Society in the 1840s

in Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty: Science, Liberalism, and Private Life

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
March 2013
ISBN:
9780226111728
eISBN:
9780226111780
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226111780.003.0002
Subject:
History, History of Science, Technology, and Medicine

This chapter explores how young Franz Exner came to seek a model of a post-dogmatic mind. Franz Exner was a Gymnasium student during the calm and optimistic years after the defeat of Napoleon. He ... More


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