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Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Colin Howson

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.001.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

This book is an extended discussion of Hume's famous sceptical argument that we have no reason to believe that the future will resemble the past. In the context of scientific methodology, this ... More


Williamson's Casual Approach to Probabilism

Mark Kaplan

in Williamson on Knowledge

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
February 2010
ISBN:
9780199287512
eISBN:
9780191713620
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287512.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind, General

The Requirement of Total Evidence enjoins you to proportion your beliefs to the support they receive from your total evidence. How exactly are we to understand what it is asking you to do? In ... More


Probabilism

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Considers whether probability theory offers a way round Hume's argument, as has sometimes been contended. There are theorems of formal probability theory that appear to show that suitable evidence ... More


Towards a New Epistemology

Bas C. van Fraassen

in Laws and Symmetry

Published in print:
1989
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198248606
eISBN:
9780191597459
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198248601.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

The underground river of probabilism, slowly growing in force over three centuries, burst forth above ground in the twentieth century and brought new hope for epistemology. Probabilism sees its ... More


The Structure of Radical Probabilism

Brian Skyrms

in From Zeno to Arbitrage: Essays on Quantity, Coherence, and Induction

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
January 2013
ISBN:
9780199652808
eISBN:
9780191745829
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199652808.003.0011
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Does radical probabilism have enough structure to say anything interesting? Structure is provided by coherent belief change. Coherence imposes the Martingale property, which gives convergence ... More


Prediction Theories: “The Path of the Law,” The Wings of the Dove, and the Engagement with Temporality

Lisi Schoenbach

in Pragmatic Modernism

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780195389845
eISBN:
9780199918393
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195389845.003.0005
Subject:
Literature, 20th-century Literature and Modernism

Chapter Four claims that James’s remarkably subtle and nuanced registry of emotions and personal interactions-long taken to indicate an apolitical aestheticism-should be linked directly to his ... More


Uncertainty in Post-Reformation Catholicism: A History of Probabilism

Stefania Tutino

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
November 2017
ISBN:
9780190694098
eISBN:
9780190694128
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190694098.001.0001
Subject:
Religion, History of Christianity, Philosophy of Religion

This book provides a historical account of the development and implications of early modern probabilism. First elaborated in the sixteenth century, probabilism represented a significant and ... More


Oxford Studies in Epistemology Volume 5

Tamar Szabó Gendler and John Hawthorne (eds)

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
April 2015
ISBN:
9780198722762
eISBN:
9780191794087
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198722762.001.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Oxford Studies in Epistemology is a biennial journal offering a regular snapshot of work in this important field. Under the guidance of a distinguished editorial board composed of leading ... More


The Skycould be Falling: Globally Relevant Disasters and the Perils of Probabilism

Lee Clarke

in Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226108599
eISBN:
9780226108605
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0002
Subject:
Sociology, Culture

This chapter examines globally relevant disasters and explores the perils of probabilism. It discusses the role of concentration and interdependence in the way people create conditions for disasters ... More


Living and Dying in Worst Case Worlds

Lee Clarke

in Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226108599
eISBN:
9780226108605
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0006
Subject:
Sociology, Culture

This chapter discusses the need to live with the fact that there will always be worst cases and disasters. People should not fear them but prepare for them. This chapter provides some recommendations ... More


From No Drop to Probabilism

Richard Pettigrew

in Accuracy and the Laws of Credence

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2016
ISBN:
9780198732716
eISBN:
9780191797019
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198732716.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

This chapter begins Part I of the book, which treats the accuracy argument for Probabilism. This chapter generalizes the argument given in the Introduction in favour of the principle No Drop. It ... More


Howson’s robustness objection

Richard Pettigrew

in Accuracy and the Laws of Credence

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2016
ISBN:
9780198732716
eISBN:
9780191797019
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198732716.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

This chapter responds to an objection raised by Colin Howson against Joyce’s original accuracy argument for Probabilism. Howson argues that the original argument is not robust under a different ... More


Accuracy and Educated Guesses

Sophie Horowitz

in Oxford Studies in Epistemology Volume 6

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
March 2019
ISBN:
9780198833314
eISBN:
9780191871658
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198833314.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Credences, unlike full beliefs, can’t be true or false. So what makes credences more or less accurate? This chapter offers a new answer to this question: credences are accurate insofar as they ... More


Expressivism, Normative Uncertainty, and Arguments for Probabilism

Julia Staffel

in Oxford Studies in Epistemology Volume 6

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
March 2019
ISBN:
9780198833314
eISBN:
9780191871658
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198833314.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

I argue that in order to account for normative uncertainty, an expressivist theory of normative language and thought must accomplish two things: first, it needs to find room in its framework for a ... More


Into the Open: Measuring Uncertainty, 1900–1918

in Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty: Science, Liberalism, and Private Life

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
March 2013
ISBN:
9780226111728
eISBN:
9780226111780
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226111780.003.0009
Subject:
History, History of Science, Technology, and Medicine

This chapter traces the way the history of a probabilistic turn in Austrian physics. Fluctuations were merely imperfections of the laboratory's insulation. The training of Vienna physicists in the ... More


The Aim of Rationality: Correctness

Ralph Wedgwood

in The Value of Rationality

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
September 2017
ISBN:
9780198802693
eISBN:
9780191841972
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198802693.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

It is proposed that rationality has an external goal—thinking as correctly as possible. (For example, perhaps believing as correctly as possible is being maximally confident of the truth, and ... More


Historical Overview: The Four Approaches to Causality

Peter V. Rabins

in The Why of Things: Causality in Science, Medicine, and Life

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231164726
eISBN:
9780231535458
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231164726.003.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

This chapter examines how the concept of cause has evolved over 4,000 years of recorded history. It begins by clarifying the meaning of the word “cause” and shows how the earliest human writings ... More


A Priori Bootstrapping

Ralph Wedgwood

in The A Priori in Philosophy

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
September 2013
ISBN:
9780199695331
eISBN:
9780191758218
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199695331.003.0011
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

A sceptical scenario is a situation in which your experiences are in some undetectable way unreliable guides to the truth—say, because you are being deceived by a demon (or the like). According to a ... More


Cell differentiation is a stochastic process subjected to natural selection

Jean-Jacques Kupiec

in Towards a Theory of Development

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780199671427
eISBN:
9780191781117
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199671427.003.0010
Subject:
Biology, Developmental Biology

In contrast to classical determinist theories of development, an accumulation of data obtained over the last 30 years shows that gene expression is a stochastic phenomenon. Since gene expression is a ... More


Buying with You, Selling with You, Praying with You: The Goods of Converted Jews

Stefania Tutino

in Uncertainty in Post-Reformation Catholicism: A History of Probabilism

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
November 2017
ISBN:
9780190694098
eISBN:
9780190694128
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190694098.003.0010
Subject:
Religion, History of Christianity, Philosophy of Religion

This chapter presents a second case study showing another concrete example of the issues to which probabilism was applied. Like the previous chapter, this chapter puts the theoretical and theological ... More


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