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The Nature of Presidential Elections

Margit Tavits

in Presidents with Prime Ministers: Do Direct Elections Matter?

This chapter considers the effect of the selection mechanisms for heads of state on the nature of elections. Using a variety of methodological approaches—case studies, paired comparisons, a natural ... More

This chapter considers the effect of the selection mechanisms for heads of state on the nature of elections. Using a variety of methodological approaches—case studies, paired comparisons, a natural experiment, and statistical analyses, this chapter shows that variation in the contentiousness of presidential elections is unrelated to the mode of election. This nonfinding can be explained by the fact that parties have an incentive to compete for the office in both situations. Specifically, this chapter argues that holding the presidential office is an electoral asset for parties: it boosts parties' vote shares in parliamentary elections—an effect that is present in the case of both directly and indirectly elected presidents. The effect of holding the presidency is substantial—presidential parties gain about 6 percentage points more votes than nonpresidential parties. This result in itself is novel and is likely to be of interest to anyone studying electoral politics. The findings in this chapter also indicate that the presence of a popular incumbent president is the most significant factor decreasing the level of contention and polarization in presidential campaigns.Less

 Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Quest to Achieve an Abundant Life

Gary Scott Smith

in Faith and the Presidency: From George Washington to George W. Bush

Scholars have provided scant analysis of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s personal faith, regular use of religious rhetoric, relationship with religious constituencies and leaders, the impact of his religious ... More

Scholars have provided scant analysis of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s personal faith, regular use of religious rhetoric, relationship with religious constituencies and leaders, the impact of his religious convictions on his policies as president, or the role of religion in his four presidential campaigns. The Democrat, however, repeatedly emphasized the importance of the Bible, prayer, and Christian morality. In numerous speeches and letters, he urged Americans to work for spiritual renewal, promote social justice, and strive to achieve a more abundant material and spiritual life. He frequently asserted that God directed history, labeled himself God’s agent, and insisted that the United States would prosper only if its citizens sought divine guidance and followed biblical principles. His courage, confidence, and calm in dealing with the Great Depression and World War II sprang from his temperament, life experiences, and faith. Interested much more in the moral, character-building, and social justice emphases of Christianity than its theological or devotional aspects, Roosevelt’s faith was sincere but not intellectually sophisticated. Like his approach to politics, his faith focused more on action than contemplation, more on results than on principles. More than any other 20th-century president, Roosevelt managed to maintain cordial relations with Protestants (especially ones concerned about social justice), Catholics, and Jews. In September 1935, Roosevelt sent a letter to more than 120,000 “representative clergymen” to ask them for “counsel and advice”, particularly about the impact of his administration’s new social security legislation and public works program. His faith played a significant role in shaping the New Deal and his approach to international relations.Less

2008: Networked Campaigning and Controlled Interactivity

Jennifer Stromer-Galley

in Presidential Campaigning in the Internet Age

If the 2004 presidential campaigns demonstrated a paradigm shift as mass-mediated campaigning gave way to digital media campaigning, which in turn changed the power dynamic between supporters and ... More

If the 2004 presidential campaigns demonstrated a paradigm shift as mass-mediated campaigning gave way to digital media campaigning, which in turn changed the power dynamic between supporters and campaigns, the 2008 election was about learning to control supporters through networked interactivity to the campaign’s greatest advantage. The Obama campaign built upon not just the innovations from 2004, but also upon the earlier practices from 2000 and 1996, establishing an effective digital media strategy for fundraising and organizing. Other candidates, especially Democratic primary candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican primary candidate Ron Paul, experimented with and centralized DCTs as key components of their campaigns. The financial disadvantage John McCain had with Obama in the general election was substantial. McCain’s campaign had little choice but to focus on tried-and-true mass-mediated campaigning, and could not effort to fully build out DCTs to work to its advantage.Less

Preparing for Battle

Shaun A. Casey

in The Making of a Catholic President: Kennedy vs. Nixon 1960

This chapter focuses on Richard Nixon's preparations to do battle against Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election. Nixon's religion problem was the converse of Kennedy's. That is, how could he ... More

This chapter focuses on Richard Nixon's preparations to do battle against Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election. Nixon's religion problem was the converse of Kennedy's. That is, how could he stave off a massive movement of Catholic Republicans to his opponent while simultaneously appealing to Protestants, all without appearing to be a religious bigot. It is shown that Nixon campaign had found its Protestant anti-Catholic strategy in the person of former Missouri congressman Orlando K. Armstrong. The saga of his work for Nixon reveals a hitherto unknown aspect of Nixon's anti-Kennedy efforts.Less

Mobilizing the Troops

Shaun A. Casey

in The Making of a Catholic President: Kennedy vs. Nixon 1960

This chapter focuses on Nixon's strategy for addressing Kennedy's Catholicism. It describes former Missouri Congressman Orlando K. Armstrong's off-the-record role as organizer of anti-Catholic forces ... More

This chapter focuses on Nixon's strategy for addressing Kennedy's Catholicism. It describes former Missouri Congressman Orlando K. Armstrong's off-the-record role as organizer of anti-Catholic forces for Nixon. It also details the efforts of the POAU—a national organization with a large grassroots membership drawn from all sectors of American Protestantism—to beat Kennedy.Less

Guerrilla Warfare

Shaun A. Casey

in The Making of a Catholic President: Kennedy vs. Nixon 1960

This chapter focuses on the Peale meeting, a gathering of Protestant ministers at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C., which was designed to put a public face on Protestant opposition to ... More

This chapter focuses on the Peale meeting, a gathering of Protestant ministers at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C., which was designed to put a public face on Protestant opposition to Kennedy's candidacy. The Peale meeting sent a shock wave through the Kennedy camp. Over the previous summer, anxiety had been growing within the campaign that the West Virginia primary results had not put the religion issue to rest at all. But between the revelation from an informant that Nixon had an operative in the field organizing conservative Protestants against Kennedy and the realization that the Peale group and POAU represented a huge swath of the Protestant world, a renewed sense of urgency struck the Kennedy campaign advisors. While the press reaction had been thorny for the Peale group, the meeting had succeeded in raising the religion issue, and it was not abundantly clear that the negative press had actually changed any voters' minds for Kennedy.Less

What we Know (And Don't Know) About Presidential Campaigns

in The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004

This chapter, which reviews the classic literature on campaigns, elections, and voting behavior, consciously attempts to define subtle and complex arguments on presidential campaign effects. It then ... More

This chapter, which reviews the classic literature on campaigns, elections, and voting behavior, consciously attempts to define subtle and complex arguments on presidential campaign effects. It then discusses the sources of renewed interest in campaign effects, before moving to a delineation of the most recent findings produced by this renaissance. Finally, the chapter identifies common ground and consensus, as well as gaps in our understanding—gaps that the book hopes to address.Less

A Lion in a Den of Daniels

Shaun A. Casey

in The Making of a Catholic President: Kennedy vs. Nixon 1960

This chapter focuses on the growing anxiety over the religion issue in the Kennedy camp. The Kennedy campaign knew that the religion issue would not be fully resolved until Election Day. On the Nixon ... More

This chapter focuses on the growing anxiety over the religion issue in the Kennedy camp. The Kennedy campaign knew that the religion issue would not be fully resolved until Election Day. On the Nixon side, the shadow strategy of organizing Protestants below the radar had done more harm than good. the chapter details Kennedy's speech in Houston where he managed to turn adversity into triumph.Less

Voter Volatility and Stability in Presidential Campaigns

Andy Baker, Barry Ames, and Lúcio Rennó

in Persuasive Peers: Social Communication and Voting in Latin America

This chapter discusses novel descriptive facts on the dynamics of vote choice during presidential election campaigns. Using all available panel data from Brazil and Mexico (plus one from Argentina), ... More

This chapter discusses novel descriptive facts on the dynamics of vote choice during presidential election campaigns. Using all available panel data from Brazil and Mexico (plus one from Argentina), it estimates the amount of preference change that occurred in 10 election campaigns. Between any two panel waves, 17 to 45 percent of voters switched across party lines. The chapter then depicts campaign volatility at the national level, using nationwide poll results to show how the horse race unfolded in the four main election cases (Brazil 2002, Brazil 2006, Brazil 2014, and Mexico 2006). These polling trends provide a brief historical background to the election cases and allow one to refute claims that the observed switching is based strictly on individual (and potentially socially isolated) calculations to avoid a wasted vote.Less

2004: The Paradigm Shift

Jennifer Stromer-Galley

in Presidential Campaigning in the Internet Age

This chapter examines the practices of the 2004 presidential campaigns. This election cycle exhibits an important shift from the mass-media campaigning paradigm to the networked media campaigning ... More

This chapter examines the practices of the 2004 presidential campaigns. This election cycle exhibits an important shift from the mass-media campaigning paradigm to the networked media campaigning paradigm. Howard Dean’s remarkable rise in the polls and financial success came after capitalizing on the affordances of digital communication technologies (DCTs) for two-step flow. The best illustration of this paradigm shift, though, is in the candidacy of Wesley Clark, which started as a netroots movement, and eventually became a front-runner campaign. The clash between the netroots and a new way of campaigning and the campaign professionals’ historic way of mass-mediated campaigning reveals the paradigm shift. In the meantime, George Bush continued to build a comprehensive data file of offline and online voter behavior for microtargeted messaging; and, John Kerry conducted analytic testing of website design and e-mail messaging features to maximize effects. Both practices were harbingers of future election cycles.Less

Learning from Our Mistakes

in The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004

This chapter briefly reviews the main results of the empirical chapters and then returns to the curious relationship between academics and consultants. Initially, it considers the “mistakes” made by ... More

This chapter briefly reviews the main results of the empirical chapters and then returns to the curious relationship between academics and consultants. Initially, it considers the “mistakes” made by the campaigns and by political scientists in 2000 and 2004. Ostensibly, this exercise refocuses attention on the different perspectives of practitioners and scholars, highlighting the shortcomings of both. It concludes with a broader discussion of what the future may hold with respect to both trends in campaigning and scholarly analyses of these campaigns.Less

1996: Mass-Mediated Campaigning in the Nascent Internet Age

Jennifer Stromer-Galley

in Presidential Campaigning in the Internet Age

The 1996 presidential campaigns were the first to experiment with digital communication technologies (DCTs). Democratic president Bill Clinton and his challenger, Republican Bob Dole, built the first ... More

The 1996 presidential campaigns were the first to experiment with digital communication technologies (DCTs). Democratic president Bill Clinton and his challenger, Republican Bob Dole, built the first presidential campaign websites, and their experimentation established the core genre of the campaign website. Ironically, it was the seventy-three-year-old Republican who had the more cutting-edge website, while the president’s site was more cautious—reflecting a pattern in future elections in which challengers are more forward thinking and experimental than incumbents. They have more to lose when experimenting with untested communication technologies. The campaigns demonstrated the mass-media paradigm of campaigning, while dabbling with digital media. The absence of human-interactive affordances in their DCTs underscores that the underlying attitude typical campaigns hold toward citizens is that they are to be managed and controlled, persuaded but not empowered except in the most limited sense.Less

2012: Data-Driven Networked Campaigning

Jennifer Stromer-Galley

in Presidential Campaigning in the Internet Age

The 2012 presidential candidates refined proven practices and ran the most data-driven campaigns in history. The candidates deployed social media, strategic online ad buys, and their websites as the ... More

The 2012 presidential candidates refined proven practices and ran the most data-driven campaigns in history. The candidates deployed social media, strategic online ad buys, and their websites as the cornerstones of their campaign practices in the increasingly complex, hybrid media environment. Obama’s and Romney’s campaigns produced a variety of tactics to interact with supporters in a way that suggested that controlled interactivity had been perfected. They built massive voter files to target the usual demographic groups while expanding to new groups typically unreached by campaigns, and conducted careful message testing to yield maximum effect. Yet for the carefully scripted work to structure interactivity between supporters and the campaign and among supporters to greatest advantage for the candidate, a substantial challenge remained: how to manage messaging in the complex, hybrid media environment where gaffes and opposition discourse can be amplified in ways unintended and with unknown consequences for campaigns.Less

Allocating Campaign Resources Across States and Media Markets

in The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004

This chapter focuses on the allocation of television advertising and candidate appearances. The fundamental premise is that descriptions of the distribution of the volume of campaigning are useful, ... More

This chapter focuses on the allocation of television advertising and candidate appearances. The fundamental premise is that descriptions of the distribution of the volume of campaigning are useful, in fact vital, to assessing campaign strategies and their influence on voters' preferences. The most striking feature of this analysis is the availability of detailed data on (1) the presidential (and vice presidential) candidates' campaign appearances; and (2) the candidates' (and parties') television advertising expenditures. Both statewide appearance and TV ad data are charted on a weekly basis from Labor Day to Election Day in 2000 and 2004, numbers that are also presented by media markets, arguably the most appropriate unit of analysis, over the same time period. In describing the allocation of these resources by the Republican and Democratic campaigns, the chapter notes the significant overall edge in party and candidate resources brought to bear by the Republicans. Several hypotheses about overall and over-time variations in resource allocations are also tested, revealing strategic gambles by the campaigns that may have affected the election outcomes.Less

Bridging the Great Divide

in The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004

This chapter begins by presenting the book's core thesis: that presidential campaigns affect voters and electorates. It advances four arguments: First, presidential campaigns see the world in terms ... More

This chapter begins by presenting the book's core thesis: that presidential campaigns affect voters and electorates. It advances four arguments: First, presidential campaigns see the world in terms of amassing 270 electoral votes, which requires identifying, persuading, and/or mobilizing a requisite number of voters in battleground states. Second, although state outcomes ultimately decide the election, paid and free media dictate that media markets also constitute an important level of analysis. Third, because it is difficult to attain campaigning advantages in the most significant electoral battlegrounds, favorable movement in voters' preferences is neither easy nor especially common. Fourth, campaigns usually attempt to affect voters' perceptions of candidates, which they presume leads to a positive shift in the vote. The discussion then turns to how this book differs from the scores of presidential campaign books that dot the popular-literature landscape. An overview of the subsequent chapters is also presented.Less

Measuring the Campaign's Impact

in The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004

This chapter examines the influence of campaigning on voters' preferences. The goal is to consider campaigning effects from a variety of perspectives. First, the chapter examines the impact across ... More

This chapter examines the influence of campaigning on voters' preferences. The goal is to consider campaigning effects from a variety of perspectives. First, the chapter examines the impact across states and then across media markets, and second, considers the influence of campaigning on not only candidate support but also voters' favorability ratings of the candidates. Third, it estimates mobilization and persuasion effects through the use of control and interactive variables in multivariate models, and fourth, uses pooled time series data to construct a more dynamic (and realistic) picture of campaign effects. At first glance the data seem to demonstrate that campaigning advantages accrued over the fall do not consistently or significantly affect either vote choice or candidate favorability advantages. Upon closer inspection, however, it becomes clear that this is because both sides expend sufficient resources to get their messages out and because it is rare that one side allows the other to sustain a campaigning advantage in a competitive state. This interpretation is most clearly borne out by the pooled time series analysis, which provides evidence that short-term campaigning advantages produce support gains.Less

Consultants and Presidential Campaigns, 1972, 1976, and 1980

Dennis W. Johnson

in Democracy for Hire: A History of American Political Consulting

The 1972 presidential campaign of Richard Nixon was the first to use private polling extensively, making use of an broad voter contact program. George McGovern’s campaign showed the potential for ... More

The 1972 presidential campaign of Richard Nixon was the first to use private polling extensively, making use of an broad voter contact program. George McGovern’s campaign showed the potential for direct mail communication and television commercials. Consultants included Robert Teeter, Patrick Caddell, Morris Dees, and Charles Guggenheim. The 1976 presidential campaign saw Stuart Spencer working for Gerald Ford, John Sears leading the Reagan campaign, Doug Bailey and John Deardourff working for Ford, and Gerald Rafshoon working for Jimmy Carter. During this period, Teeter and Richard Wirthlin emerged as major Republican pollsters. In the 1980 presidential election, David Garth was working for John Anderson; Rafshoon, Caddell, Hamilton Jordan, and Jody Powell were working for Carter; and John Sears and Richard Wirthlin were senior advisers for Reagan.Less