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Example of Model Building: Electoral Volatility

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on ... More


Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social science methods have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, ... More


How to Construct Predictive Models: Simplicity and Nonabsurdity

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0003
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Predictive models should be as simple as one can get away with, and they must not predict absurdities. They join the parsimony of “Occam's razor” to the “Sherlock Holmes principle”: Show how things ... More


The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’ — the product of the assembly size and district magnitude. The number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the fourth root of the seat ... More


Converting from Descriptive Analysis to Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0016
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The results of existing statistical analysis can sometimes be used to estimate the parameters in quantitatively predictive logical models. This is important, because it expands the value of ... More


Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0009
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

As with Chapter 8, the ‘seat product’ is the important quantity to watch. The effective number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the sixth root of the seat product. The average ... More


Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Rein Taagepera

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

For a given electoral system, what average number and size distribution of parties can we expect? This book makes specific predictions that agree with world averages. The basic factors are assembly ... More


Beyond Constraint‐Based Models: Communication Channels and Growth Rates

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0011
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The number of communication channels may well turn out to be a major building block in constructing quantitatively predictive logical models in social sciences. This number does determine ... More


The Law of Minority Attrition

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0013
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The more important levels have fewer positions, and the share of minorities goes down. The law of minority attrition is a quantitatively predictive logical model that expresses it more precisely. A ... More


The Mean Duration of Cabinets

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0010
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

Again the quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’. The inverse square law of cabinet durations says that the mean cabinet duration in a country is approximately forty-two years divided by the square ... More


Size and Politics

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0012
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The cube root law of assembly sizes applies to first or only chambers. It says that assembly size is approximately the cube root of the country's population, because this size minimizes the workload ... More


The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0014
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

Using nothing but the product of assembly size and district magnitude, a quantitatively predictive logical model allows us to estimate the average effective number of parties based on votes. Average ... More


Climate change and human health: mapping and modelling potential impacts

A. J. McMichael, P. Martens, R. S. Kovats, and S. Lele

in Spatial Epidemiology: Methods and Applications

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
September 2009
ISBN:
9780198515326
eISBN:
9780191723667
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198515326.003.0025
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

This chapter examines the methods used to describe and forecast the health impacts of climate change. It considers the research methods applicable to assessing the potential impacts of climate ... More


Widening participation to other opportunities

Stephen Gorard

in Education Policy: Evidence of Equity and Effectiveness

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
May 2019
ISBN:
9781447342144
eISBN:
9781447342212
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Policy Press
DOI:
10.1332/policypress/9781447342144.003.0012
Subject:
Education, Educational Policy and Politics

This chapter brings place and time more strongly to the fore in explanatory models of learning and distinguishes between biographical and historical changes. It also tries to distinguish between the ... More


Dataset Shift in Machine Learning

Joaquin Quiñonero-Candela, Masashi Sugiyama, Anton Schwaighofer, and Neil D. Lawrence (eds)

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
August 2013
ISBN:
9780262170055
eISBN:
9780262255103
Item type:
book
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262170055.001.0001
Subject:
Computer Science, Machine Learning

Dataset shift is a common problem in predictive modeling that occurs when the joint distribution of inputs and outputs differs between training and test stages. Covariate shift, a particular case of ... More


A Guide to Predictive Models for Metallic Liquid Thermophysical Properties

Takamichi Iida and Roderick I.L. Guthrie

in The Thermophysical Properties of Metallic Liquids: Volume 2 — Predictive Models

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780198729846
eISBN:
9780191796661
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198729846.003.0010
Subject:
Physics, Condensed Matter Physics / Materials

This chapter discusses essential points in developing reliable models for accurate predictions of the thermophysical properties of liquid metallic elements. Topics covered include essential ... More


Predicting Avian Community Responses to Increasing Urbanization

Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman, John M. Marzluff, and Marina Alberti

in Urban Bird Ecology and Conservation

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780520273092
eISBN:
9780520953895
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of California Press
DOI:
10.1525/california/9780520273092.003.0015
Subject:
Biology, Ornithology

We predicted changes in avian communities that are likely to occur given predicted land cover and land use twenty-eight years into the future for the lowlands of the Central Puget Sound of western ... More


Do We (or Our Brains) Actively Represent or Enactively Engage with the World?

Shaun Gallagher

in The Pragmatic Turn: Toward Action-Oriented Views in Cognitive Science

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
September 2016
ISBN:
9780262034326
eISBN:
9780262333290
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034326.003.0016
Subject:
Neuroscience, History of Neuroscience

This chapter reviews scientific discussions of several problems (free will, social cognition, perception) that reflect a representational approach to cognitive science, and contrasts them with ... More


Ultimate Causation

Michael B. Bracken

in Risk, Chance, and Causation: Investigating the Origins and Treatment of Disease

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300188844
eISBN:
9780300189551
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300188844.003.0016
Subject:
History, Environmental History

This chapter distinguishes between predictive models of disease risk and causal models, a distinction that is important since several predictive factors may be the result of unrecognized or ... More


Nonlinear MRAW Synthesis

Luca Zaccarian and Andrew R. Teel

in Modern Anti-windup Synthesis: Control Augmentation for Actuator Saturation

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691147321
eISBN:
9781400839025
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691147321.003.0008
Subject:
Mathematics, Applied Mathematics

This chapter deals with nonlinear model recovery anti-windup (MRAW) synthesis. In considering nonlinear synthesis techniques for the feedback signal, the user can expect a tradeoff between ... More


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