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Beyond Regression: The Need for Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0018
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered, and this book offers openings. To the society at large, quantitative social scientists presently seem no better at prediction than ... More


Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social science methods have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, ... More


Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Rein Taagepera

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

For a given electoral system, what average number and size distribution of parties can we expect? This book makes specific predictions that agree with world averages. The basic factors are assembly ... More


The Mean Duration of Cabinets

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0010
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

Again the quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’. The inverse square law of cabinet durations says that the mean cabinet duration in a country is approximately forty-two years divided by the square ... More


Size and Politics

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0012
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The cube root law of assembly sizes applies to first or only chambers. It says that assembly size is approximately the cube root of the country's population, because this size minimizes the workload ... More


The Law of Minority Attrition

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0013
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The more important levels have fewer positions, and the share of minorities goes down. The law of minority attrition is a quantitatively predictive logical model that expresses it more precisely. A ... More


The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0014
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

Using nothing but the product of assembly size and district magnitude, a quantitatively predictive logical model allows us to estimate the average effective number of parties based on votes. Average ... More


The Number of Seat‐Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

The quantity to watch is the ‘seat product’ — the product of the assembly size and district magnitude. The number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the fourth root of the seat ... More


Seat Shares of All Parties and the Effective Number of Parties

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0009
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

As with Chapter 8, the ‘seat product’ is the important quantity to watch. The effective number of parties represented in the assembly is approximately the sixth root of the seat product. The average ... More


 Neuroimaging

Walter Glannon

in Bioethics and the Brain

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
January 2007
ISBN:
9780195307788
eISBN:
9780199867431
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195307788.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

This chapter describes different forms of brain imaging, laying out their design and limitations. It explains the ways brain scans can help to diagnose mental disorders, as well as to monitor the ... More


How to Construct Predictive Models: Simplicity and Nonabsurdity

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0003
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Predictive models should be as simple as one can get away with, and they must not predict absurdities. They join the parsimony of “Occam's razor” to the “Sherlock Holmes principle”: Show how things ... More


Example of Model Building: Electoral Volatility

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on ... More


Beyond Constraint‐Based Models: Communication Channels and Growth Rates

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0011
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The number of communication channels may well turn out to be a major building block in constructing quantitatively predictive logical models in social sciences. This number does determine ... More


From Descriptive to Predictive Approaches

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0014
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Routine statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, giving answers within a narrow range of questions. Quantitatively formulated logical model force us to ask further questions and are ... More


Converting from Descriptive Analysis to Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0016
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The results of existing statistical analysis can sometimes be used to estimate the parameters in quantitatively predictive logical models. This is important, because it expands the value of ... More


The Explanatory Power of Theism: General Considerations

Richard Swinburne

in The Existence of God

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199271672
eISBN:
9780191709357
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199271672.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

Evidence e renders a hypothesis h more probable in so far as both the prior probability of h is high and so is its explanatory power (that is it predictive power which is the probability of the ... More


Estimating the history of mutations on a phylogeny

Jonathan P. Bollback, Paul P. Gardner, and Rasmus Nielsen

in Ancestral Sequence Reconstruction

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199299188
eISBN:
9780191714979
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199299188.003.0006
Subject:
Biology, Evolutionary Biology / Genetics

Evolution has left its signature on the molecules and morphology of living organisms. Ancestral reconstruction offers an excellent tool for understanding the process of evolution using comparative ... More


Establishing Evidence of Scale Score Validity

Neil Abell, David W. Springer, and Akihito Kamata

in Developing and Validating Rapid Assessment Instruments

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
September 2009
ISBN:
9780195333367
eISBN:
9780199864300
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195333367.003.0005
Subject:
Social Work, Research and Evaluation

This chapter deconstructs the multiple forms of evidence combined to establish the construct validity of a measure. Some forms (i.e., face and content validity) are shown to be fundamentally ... More


Little g and friends: An exposition of psychometric intelligence differences. The anatomy (or geography) of that which has to be explained

Ian J. Deary

in Looking Down on Human Intelligence: From Psychometrics to the Brain

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
January 2008
ISBN:
9780198524175
eISBN:
9780191712531
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198524175.003.0001
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter discusses the psychometric structure, predictive validity, and statistical genetics of intelligence.


What's the H in H‐likelihood: A Holy Grail or an Achilles' Heel? *

Xiao‐Li Meng

in Bayesian Statistics 9

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780199694587
eISBN:
9780191731921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.003.0016
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

H‐likelihood refers to a likelihood function of both fixed parameters and random “unobservables,” such as missing data and latent variables. The method then typically proceeds by maximizing over the ... More


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