Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199534661
- eISBN:
- 9780191715921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0018
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered, and this book offers openings. To the society at large, quantitative social scientists presently seem no better at prediction than ...
More
Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered, and this book offers openings. To the society at large, quantitative social scientists presently seem no better at prediction than qualitative historians, philosophers, and journalists — they just look more boring. computers could be a boon to social sciences, but they have turned out a curse in disguise, by enabling people with insufficient understanding of scientific process to use canned computer programs and grind out reams of numbers parading as “results,” to be printed — and hardly ever used again. One may discard this book on the basis of errors of detail, but the problems it points out will still be there. Unless corrected, they will lead to a Ptolemaic dead end.Less
Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered, and this book offers openings. To the society at large, quantitative social scientists presently seem no better at prediction than qualitative historians, philosophers, and journalists — they just look more boring. computers could be a boon to social sciences, but they have turned out a curse in disguise, by enabling people with insufficient understanding of scientific process to use canned computer programs and grind out reams of numbers parading as “results,” to be printed — and hardly ever used again. One may discard this book on the basis of errors of detail, but the problems it points out will still be there. Unless corrected, they will lead to a Ptolemaic dead end.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780199287741
- eISBN:
- 9780191713408
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, Democratization
Starting with the characteristics of the electoral systems, the ‘Duvergerian agenda’ aims at predicting the average seat and vote share distributions of parties, the effective number of parties, and ...
More
Starting with the characteristics of the electoral systems, the ‘Duvergerian agenda’ aims at predicting the average seat and vote share distributions of parties, the effective number of parties, and deviation from proportional representation. In the case of simple electoral systems, prediction of seat shares of parties and cabinet duration has become possible. Simple electoral systems are those that use a usual proportional representation formula or First-Past-The-Post, so that assembly size and district magnitude tell most of the story.Less
Starting with the characteristics of the electoral systems, the ‘Duvergerian agenda’ aims at predicting the average seat and vote share distributions of parties, the effective number of parties, and deviation from proportional representation. In the case of simple electoral systems, prediction of seat shares of parties and cabinet duration has become possible. Simple electoral systems are those that use a usual proportional representation formula or First-Past-The-Post, so that assembly size and district magnitude tell most of the story.
J. R. LUCAS
- Published in print:
- 1970
- Published Online:
- October 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780198243434
- eISBN:
- 9780191680687
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198243434.003.0007
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Moral Philosophy
Not every prediction poses a problem for freedom. Most of our actual predictions about human actions profess both to be fallible and to be dependent on the agent concerned. There is nearly always the ...
More
Not every prediction poses a problem for freedom. Most of our actual predictions about human actions profess both to be fallible and to be dependent on the agent concerned. There is nearly always the implicit hedge ‘unless he changes his mind’. There are three conditions which predictions must fulfil before they pose a threat to freedom: they must be infallible; they must be based on a limited range of factors, outside the Agent's control; and they must be completely specific. Only those forms of determinism that claim to satisfy these conditions need worry us.Less
Not every prediction poses a problem for freedom. Most of our actual predictions about human actions profess both to be fallible and to be dependent on the agent concerned. There is nearly always the implicit hedge ‘unless he changes his mind’. There are three conditions which predictions must fulfil before they pose a threat to freedom: they must be infallible; they must be based on a limited range of factors, outside the Agent's control; and they must be completely specific. Only those forms of determinism that claim to satisfy these conditions need worry us.
Peter Achinstein
- Published in print:
- 2001
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780195143898
- eISBN:
- 9780199833023
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0195143892.001.0001
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Science
What is required for a fact to be evidence for a hypothesis? In this book Achinstein introduces four concepts of evidence, which he calls potential, veridical, epistemic‐situation, and subjective. He ...
More
What is required for a fact to be evidence for a hypothesis? In this book Achinstein introduces four concepts of evidence, which he calls potential, veridical, epistemic‐situation, and subjective. He defines the last three by reference to the first, and then characterizes potential evidence using a new objective epistemic interpretation of probability. The resulting theory is used to provide solutions to four ”paradoxes of evidence” (grue, ravens, lottery, and old evidence) and to a series of questions, including whether explanations or predictions furnish more evidential weight; whether individual hypotheses or only entire theoretical systems can receive evidential support (the Duhem‐Quine problem); and what counts as a scientific discovery and what evidence it requires. Two historical scientific cases are examined using the theory of evidence developed: Jean Perrin's argument for molecules (did he have noncircular evidence for their existence?), and J.J. Thomson's argument for electrons (what sort of evidence did this argument provide?).Less
What is required for a fact to be evidence for a hypothesis? In this book Achinstein introduces four concepts of evidence, which he calls potential, veridical, epistemic‐situation, and subjective. He defines the last three by reference to the first, and then characterizes potential evidence using a new objective epistemic interpretation of probability. The resulting theory is used to provide solutions to four ”paradoxes of evidence” (grue, ravens, lottery, and old evidence) and to a series of questions, including whether explanations or predictions furnish more evidential weight; whether individual hypotheses or only entire theoretical systems can receive evidential support (the Duhem‐Quine problem); and what counts as a scientific discovery and what evidence it requires. Two historical scientific cases are examined using the theory of evidence developed: Jean Perrin's argument for molecules (did he have noncircular evidence for their existence?), and J.J. Thomson's argument for electrons (what sort of evidence did this argument provide?).
Timothy O'Riordan and Timothy Lenton (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- January 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780197265536
- eISBN:
- 9780191760327
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- British Academy
- DOI:
- 10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Environmental Politics
This book places tipping points in their scientific, economic,
governmental, creative, and spiritual contexts. It seeks to offer a comprehensive set of
...
More
This book places tipping points in their scientific, economic,
governmental, creative, and spiritual contexts. It seeks to offer a comprehensive set of
interpretations on the meaning and application of tipping points. Its contribution focuses on the
various characterisations and metaphors of tipping points, on the scope for anticipating their
onset, the capacity for societal resilience in the face of their impending arrival, and for better
ways of communicating and preparing societies, economies, and governments for accommodating them,
and hence to turn them into responses which buffer and better human well-being. Above all, the
possibility of preparing society for creative and benign ‘tips’ is a unifying theme. The conclusion
is sombre but not without hope. Thresholds of profound change can combine earth system-based
relatively abrupt shifts with human-caused alterations of these disturbed patterns which, coupled
together, produce more rapid onsets and greater tensions and stresses for governments and economies,
as well as socially unequal societies. There is still time to predict and address these thresholds
but too much delay will make the task of accommodation very difficult to achieve with relevant-scale
community support. There are many examples of adaptive resilience throughout the world. These should
be identified, supported, and emulated according to cultural acceptance and emerging economic
realities. But there is no guarantee that the necessary adjustments can be made in time, as emerging
patterns of outlook and governance do not appear to be conducive to manage the very awkward
transitions of appropriate response.Less
This book places tipping points in their scientific, economic,
governmental, creative, and spiritual contexts. It seeks to offer a comprehensive set of
interpretations on the meaning and application of tipping points. Its contribution focuses on the
various characterisations and metaphors of tipping points, on the scope for anticipating their
onset, the capacity for societal resilience in the face of their impending arrival, and for better
ways of communicating and preparing societies, economies, and governments for accommodating them,
and hence to turn them into responses which buffer and better human well-being. Above all, the
possibility of preparing society for creative and benign ‘tips’ is a unifying theme. The conclusion
is sombre but not without hope. Thresholds of profound change can combine earth system-based
relatively abrupt shifts with human-caused alterations of these disturbed patterns which, coupled
together, produce more rapid onsets and greater tensions and stresses for governments and economies,
as well as socially unequal societies. There is still time to predict and address these thresholds
but too much delay will make the task of accommodation very difficult to achieve with relevant-scale
community support. There are many examples of adaptive resilience throughout the world. These should
be identified, supported, and emulated according to cultural acceptance and emerging economic
realities. But there is no guarantee that the necessary adjustments can be made in time, as emerging
patterns of outlook and governance do not appear to be conducive to manage the very awkward
transitions of appropriate response.
Michael A Bishop and J. D. Trout
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- July 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780195162295
- eISBN:
- 9780199835539
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0195162293.001.0001
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology
This book presents a new approach to epistemology (the theory of human knowledge and reasoning). Its approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic ...
More
This book presents a new approach to epistemology (the theory of human knowledge and reasoning). Its approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic epistemology, and treat it as a branch of the philosophy of science. The approach is novel in its use of cost-benefit analysis to guide people facing real reasoning problems and in its framework for resolving normative disputes in psychology. Based on empirical data, the book shows how people can improve their reasoning by relying on Statistical Prediction Rules (SPRs). It then develops and articulates the positive core of the book. The view presented — Strategic Reliabilism — claims that epistemic excellence consists in the efficient allocation of cognitive resources to reliable reasoning strategies, applied to significant problems. The last third of the book develops the implications of this view for standard analytic epistemology; for resolving normative disputes in psychology; and for offering practical, concrete advice on how this theory can improve real people's reasoning.Less
This book presents a new approach to epistemology (the theory of human knowledge and reasoning). Its approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic epistemology, and treat it as a branch of the philosophy of science. The approach is novel in its use of cost-benefit analysis to guide people facing real reasoning problems and in its framework for resolving normative disputes in psychology. Based on empirical data, the book shows how people can improve their reasoning by relying on Statistical Prediction Rules (SPRs). It then develops and articulates the positive core of the book. The view presented — Strategic Reliabilism — claims that epistemic excellence consists in the efficient allocation of cognitive resources to reliable reasoning strategies, applied to significant problems. The last third of the book develops the implications of this view for standard analytic epistemology; for resolving normative disputes in psychology; and for offering practical, concrete advice on how this theory can improve real people's reasoning.
Lainie Friedman Ross
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- May 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199273287
- eISBN:
- 9780191603655
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273286.003.0011
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Moral Philosophy
This chapter examines the meta-ethical question regarding subject selection in newborn screening for diabetes. Data show that over 90% of parents give permission for diabetes screening of their ...
More
This chapter examines the meta-ethical question regarding subject selection in newborn screening for diabetes. Data show that over 90% of parents give permission for diabetes screening of their newborns in the US and abroad. It is argued that prediction research in newborns has potentially serious psychosocial implications, especially when it is introduced into the unsuspecting general population, and research designs must account for them. Recommendations are proposed that balance the need for research access with protection, to minimize harm to infants and their families.Less
This chapter examines the meta-ethical question regarding subject selection in newborn screening for diabetes. Data show that over 90% of parents give permission for diabetes screening of their newborns in the US and abroad. It is argued that prediction research in newborns has potentially serious psychosocial implications, especially when it is introduced into the unsuspecting general population, and research designs must account for them. Recommendations are proposed that balance the need for research access with protection, to minimize harm to infants and their families.
Lainie Friedman Ross
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- May 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199273287
- eISBN:
- 9780191603655
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273286.003.0012
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Moral Philosophy
This chapter provides an overview of recent diabetes prediction and prediction/prevention studies beyond the newborn period. It examines whether these studies are permissible under current federal ...
More
This chapter provides an overview of recent diabetes prediction and prediction/prevention studies beyond the newborn period. It examines whether these studies are permissible under current federal regulations, and whether proposed modifications improve human subject protections. In the process, it is clarified whether and when children ‘at risk’ for ‘a disorder or condition’ should qualify for having ‘a disorder or condition’.Less
This chapter provides an overview of recent diabetes prediction and prediction/prevention studies beyond the newborn period. It examines whether these studies are permissible under current federal regulations, and whether proposed modifications improve human subject protections. In the process, it is clarified whether and when children ‘at risk’ for ‘a disorder or condition’ should qualify for having ‘a disorder or condition’.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199534661
- eISBN:
- 9780191715921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
Science is not only about the empirical “What is?” but also very much about the conceptual “How should it be on logical grounds?” Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while ...
More
Science is not only about the empirical “What is?” but also very much about the conceptual “How should it be on logical grounds?” Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while quantitatively formulated logical models are essentially predictive in an explanatory way. Social sciences have overemphasized statistical data analysis, often limiting their logical models to prediction of the direction of effect, oblivious of its quantitative extent. A better balance of methods is possible and will make social sciences more relevant to society. This book is about going beyond regression and other statistical approaches, and also about improving their use.Less
Science is not only about the empirical “What is?” but also very much about the conceptual “How should it be on logical grounds?” Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while quantitatively formulated logical models are essentially predictive in an explanatory way. Social sciences have overemphasized statistical data analysis, often limiting their logical models to prediction of the direction of effect, oblivious of its quantitative extent. A better balance of methods is possible and will make social sciences more relevant to society. This book is about going beyond regression and other statistical approaches, and also about improving their use.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199534661
- eISBN:
- 9780191715921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
Most physics equations include few variables and at most one freely adjustable constant, which multiply or divide. In contrast, regression equations favored in social sciences often have many ...
More
Most physics equations include few variables and at most one freely adjustable constant, which multiply or divide. In contrast, regression equations favored in social sciences often have many variables in additive–subtractive strings, with plenty of freely adjustable constants/coefficients. Physics equations are reversible and transitive; standard regression equations are unidirectional and nontransitive. Physics rarely offers alternate equations for the same phenomenon, with a different set of input variables and constants; this is frequent in social science regression analysis. Physics equations are presented with prediction in mind, while tables of regression coefficients in social sciences reflect postdiction and often preclude even that.Less
Most physics equations include few variables and at most one freely adjustable constant, which multiply or divide. In contrast, regression equations favored in social sciences often have many variables in additive–subtractive strings, with plenty of freely adjustable constants/coefficients. Physics equations are reversible and transitive; standard regression equations are unidirectional and nontransitive. Physics rarely offers alternate equations for the same phenomenon, with a different set of input variables and constants; this is frequent in social science regression analysis. Physics equations are presented with prediction in mind, while tables of regression coefficients in social sciences reflect postdiction and often preclude even that.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199534661
- eISBN:
- 9780191715921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
The null hypothesis offers close to null prediction. Directional hypotheses are relatively easy to satisfy and offer correspondingly vague predictions. Quantitative hypotheses (models) are hard to ...
More
The null hypothesis offers close to null prediction. Directional hypotheses are relatively easy to satisfy and offer correspondingly vague predictions. Quantitative hypotheses (models) are hard to satisfy and offer quantitatively falsifiable predictions. The customary hypothesis-testing recipe in social sciences, “hypothesis → data collection → testing → acceptance/rejection,” is only a single cycle in an ascending spiral. Having “p=.01” does NOT mean confirmation in 99% of replications.Less
The null hypothesis offers close to null prediction. Directional hypotheses are relatively easy to satisfy and offer correspondingly vague predictions. Quantitative hypotheses (models) are hard to satisfy and offer quantitatively falsifiable predictions. The customary hypothesis-testing recipe in social sciences, “hypothesis → data collection → testing → acceptance/rejection,” is only a single cycle in an ascending spiral. Having “p=.01” does NOT mean confirmation in 99% of replications.
Tim O’Riordan, Tim Lenton, and Ian Christie
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- January 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780197265536
- eISBN:
- 9780191760327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- British Academy
- DOI:
- 10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Environmental Politics
Tipping points are metaphors of sudden change, of fear, of falling, of foreboding, and of failure. Tipping points are thresholds of tolerance, of bifurcation, and of transformation which are built ...
More
Tipping points are metaphors of sudden change, of fear, of falling, of foreboding, and of failure. Tipping points are thresholds of tolerance, of bifurcation, and of transformation which are built into complex systems of transformation. Sudden change can arise from earth system phase changes (for example in the condition of ice, ocean acidity, drying of the tropical forests and the onset of monsoons). But they can also depict rapid shifts in geopolitics, local and regional conflicts, and in economic performance with implications for the well-being of societies all over the globe. The patterns of suddenness and aftermath of physical and socio-economic systems vary greatly. Tipping points can lead to unintended worsening, to induced vulnerabilities, to chaos and confusion in communication, and to the scope for restorative redirection. The scope for benign transformation is an intrinsic aspect of the tipping point metaphor.Less
Tipping points are metaphors of sudden change, of fear, of falling, of foreboding, and of failure. Tipping points are thresholds of tolerance, of bifurcation, and of transformation which are built into complex systems of transformation. Sudden change can arise from earth system phase changes (for example in the condition of ice, ocean acidity, drying of the tropical forests and the onset of monsoons). But they can also depict rapid shifts in geopolitics, local and regional conflicts, and in economic performance with implications for the well-being of societies all over the globe. The patterns of suddenness and aftermath of physical and socio-economic systems vary greatly. Tipping points can lead to unintended worsening, to induced vulnerabilities, to chaos and confusion in communication, and to the scope for restorative redirection. The scope for benign transformation is an intrinsic aspect of the tipping point metaphor.
I. David Brown
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- January 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780199298815
- eISBN:
- 9780191708879
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199298815.001.0001
- Subject:
- Physics, Crystallography
The bond valence model, which is derived from the ionic model, is expressed through a number of rules and equations that determines which acid-base bond structures can exist. Chief among these rules ...
More
The bond valence model, which is derived from the ionic model, is expressed through a number of rules and equations that determines which acid-base bond structures can exist. Chief among these rules is the bond valence sum rule, which states that the sum of bond valences around an ion is equal to its atomic valence. These rules can be used to understand many of the properties of inorganic structures, such as bond lengths, coordination numbers, their structures and their solution chemistry. The unusual geometries and properties of hydrogen bonds follow naturally from these rules. Because the model describes chemically ideal structures, it allows one to quantify the role of electronic anisotropies and steric strain in observed structures, the latter frequently leading to phase transitions in crystals. In favourable cases the model can be used for structure prediction by constructing the bond network ab initio and then mapping this onto a compatible space group. The model has applications in many fields ranging from earth sciences to biology.Less
The bond valence model, which is derived from the ionic model, is expressed through a number of rules and equations that determines which acid-base bond structures can exist. Chief among these rules is the bond valence sum rule, which states that the sum of bond valences around an ion is equal to its atomic valence. These rules can be used to understand many of the properties of inorganic structures, such as bond lengths, coordination numbers, their structures and their solution chemistry. The unusual geometries and properties of hydrogen bonds follow naturally from these rules. Because the model describes chemically ideal structures, it allows one to quantify the role of electronic anisotropies and steric strain in observed structures, the latter frequently leading to phase transitions in crystals. In favourable cases the model can be used for structure prediction by constructing the bond network ab initio and then mapping this onto a compatible space group. The model has applications in many fields ranging from earth sciences to biology.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199534661
- eISBN:
- 9780191715921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0013
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
Models are tested with data, but also data are tested by agreement with conceptual models. When competing indices exist to measure the same phenomena, one should use the ones that agree with ...
More
Models are tested with data, but also data are tested by agreement with conceptual models. When competing indices exist to measure the same phenomena, one should use the ones that agree with logically supported prediction. These indices need not be philosophically “truer” measures of the underlying concepts, but they are more useful for prediction. The choice between two accepted ways to measure cabinet duration and three ways to measure the number of parties illustrates this advice. Clearest results emerge when symmetric regression is used for testing.Less
Models are tested with data, but also data are tested by agreement with conceptual models. When competing indices exist to measure the same phenomena, one should use the ones that agree with logically supported prediction. These indices need not be philosophically “truer” measures of the underlying concepts, but they are more useful for prediction. The choice between two accepted ways to measure cabinet duration and three ways to measure the number of parties illustrates this advice. Clearest results emerge when symmetric regression is used for testing.
Ian Budge and Hans Keman
- Published in print:
- 1993
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198279259
- eISBN:
- 9780191598883
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198279256.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Examines whether the hierarchical rules for government formation actually do describe the way parties form governments in the 20 post‐war democracies. An overall predictive success of 0.81 of all ...
More
Examines whether the hierarchical rules for government formation actually do describe the way parties form governments in the 20 post‐war democracies. An overall predictive success of 0.81 of all governments is achieved so it seems that they do.Less
Examines whether the hierarchical rules for government formation actually do describe the way parties form governments in the 20 post‐war democracies. An overall predictive success of 0.81 of all governments is achieved so it seems that they do.
Martin Shapiro
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199256488
- eISBN:
- 9780191600234
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199256489.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers ...
More
To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers within it, discuss and use three strategies for building theory through testing and comparing. This first paper, which was originally published in the University of Chicago Law Forum in 1992, discusses a mode of testing that involves constructing causal hypotheses to explain a major change that has occurred in one particular part of one particular legal system, and testing these comparatively either by predicting future developments in the same legal system, or (as here) by predicting that another legal system now displaying the same hypothesized conditions will experience in the future those results that occurred in the first system. Shapiro examines the ‘giving reasons requirement’ in European Community (EC) law by deriving predictions about European law from the evolution of American judicial review of administrative acts. The first part of the paper examines the giving reasons requirement in relation to administrative discretion and judicial review of administrative action in the United States. The second part goes on to compare US and EC law, looking at whether the EC giving reasons requirement is substantive as well as procedural, and examining the experience of the European Court of Justice with substantive review.Less
To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers within it, discuss and use three strategies for building theory through testing and comparing. This first paper, which was originally published in the University of Chicago Law Forum in 1992, discusses a mode of testing that involves constructing causal hypotheses to explain a major change that has occurred in one particular part of one particular legal system, and testing these comparatively either by predicting future developments in the same legal system, or (as here) by predicting that another legal system now displaying the same hypothesized conditions will experience in the future those results that occurred in the first system. Shapiro examines the ‘giving reasons requirement’ in European Community (EC) law by deriving predictions about European law from the evolution of American judicial review of administrative acts. The first part of the paper examines the giving reasons requirement in relation to administrative discretion and judicial review of administrative action in the United States. The second part goes on to compare US and EC law, looking at whether the EC giving reasons requirement is substantive as well as procedural, and examining the experience of the European Court of Justice with substantive review.
Alec Stone Sweet and Thomas Brunell
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199256488
- eISBN:
- 9780191600234
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199256489.003.0008
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers ...
More
To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers within it, discuss and use three strategies for building theory through testing and comparing. This second paper, which was originally published in the American Political Science Review in 1998, employs econometric and other modes of statistical analysis as well as qualitative ‘process tracing’ to evaluate specific causal propositions about how European Community (EC) integration and the construction of the European legal system (as enforced by the European Court of Justice) have proceeded. The research design constitutes a mixed means of testing: (1) deductive derivation of hypotheses from materials developed in prior comparative research, (2) collection of data to operationalize the theorized variables, (3) testing of the hypotheses through quantitative data analysis, and (4) cross-checking of these results and exploration of other theorized relationships or dynamics (qualitatively). The research leads Stone Sweet and Brunell to propose a theory of European legal integration (i.e. the process by which Europe has constructed a transnational rule-of-law polity), which integrates three interdependent causal factors: contracting among individuals, third-party dispute resolution, and the production of legal norms. The theory is tested, with reference to the EC, in two stages: first, the construction of the legal system is explained and the relationships between the three key variables are analysed over the life of the EC; second, the impact of the operation of the legal system is examined on governance (i.e. on policy processes and outcomes) at both the national and the supranational levels.Less
To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers within it, discuss and use three strategies for building theory through testing and comparing. This second paper, which was originally published in the American Political Science Review in 1998, employs econometric and other modes of statistical analysis as well as qualitative ‘process tracing’ to evaluate specific causal propositions about how European Community (EC) integration and the construction of the European legal system (as enforced by the European Court of Justice) have proceeded. The research design constitutes a mixed means of testing: (1) deductive derivation of hypotheses from materials developed in prior comparative research, (2) collection of data to operationalize the theorized variables, (3) testing of the hypotheses through quantitative data analysis, and (4) cross-checking of these results and exploration of other theorized relationships or dynamics (qualitatively). The research leads Stone Sweet and Brunell to propose a theory of European legal integration (i.e. the process by which Europe has constructed a transnational rule-of-law polity), which integrates three interdependent causal factors: contracting among individuals, third-party dispute resolution, and the production of legal norms. The theory is tested, with reference to the EC, in two stages: first, the construction of the legal system is explained and the relationships between the three key variables are analysed over the life of the EC; second, the impact of the operation of the legal system is examined on governance (i.e. on policy processes and outcomes) at both the national and the supranational levels.
Mark Wilson
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780199269259
- eISBN:
- 9780191710155
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199269259.003.0009
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Language
Distinct forms of linguistic strategy can masquerade for one another quite ably — early chapters illustrated how serious philosophical confusions often arise when a facade-structured language is ...
More
Distinct forms of linguistic strategy can masquerade for one another quite ably — early chapters illustrated how serious philosophical confusions often arise when a facade-structured language is mistaken for a simpler, classical usage. In this chapter, some of Hume's celebrated worries about causation are traced to several allied forms of semantic masquerade.Less
Distinct forms of linguistic strategy can masquerade for one another quite ably — early chapters illustrated how serious philosophical confusions often arise when a facade-structured language is mistaken for a simpler, classical usage. In this chapter, some of Hume's celebrated worries about causation are traced to several allied forms of semantic masquerade.
Michael A Bishop and J. D. Trout
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- July 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780195162295
- eISBN:
- 9780199835539
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0195162293.003.0001
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology
This introductory chapter presents an overview of the subsequent chapters in this book which will discuss topics such as epistemological theory, Statistical Prediction Rules, Strategic Reliabilism, ...
More
This introductory chapter presents an overview of the subsequent chapters in this book which will discuss topics such as epistemological theory, Statistical Prediction Rules, Strategic Reliabilism, and Standard Analytic Epistemology.Less
This introductory chapter presents an overview of the subsequent chapters in this book which will discuss topics such as epistemological theory, Statistical Prediction Rules, Strategic Reliabilism, and Standard Analytic Epistemology.
Raymond L. Chambers and Robert G. Clark
- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- May 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780198566625
- eISBN:
- 9780191738449
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566625.003.0002
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics
The model-based (or prediction) approach to sample survey inference is described. Population values of variables of interest are assumed to be generated by a stochastic model, the so-called ...
More
The model-based (or prediction) approach to sample survey inference is described. Population values of variables of interest are assumed to be generated by a stochastic model, the so-called superpopulation model. The empirical best predictor of a population total is defined.Less
The model-based (or prediction) approach to sample survey inference is described. Population values of variables of interest are assumed to be generated by a stochastic model, the so-called superpopulation model. The empirical best predictor of a population total is defined.
