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Hegemony in Regional Order: East Asia

Ian Clark

in Hegemony in International Society

The second case looks at the region of East Asia, again frequently described as having been hegemonic, mostly reflecting the widespread US alliances in the area. Much of the contemporary debate is ... More

The second case looks at the region of East Asia, again frequently described as having been hegemonic, mostly reflecting the widespread US alliances in the area. Much of the contemporary debate is about whether the region is now undergoing a power transition, as China's economy has bounced back quickly from the global recession, and it has been seen as a powerful motor of regional economic integration ever since the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s. Is the USA losing any hegemony in the region, or simply its primacy in the face of greater multipolarity? The chapter considers the debates about current regional order, and whether it is being led by regional small-power initiatives, such as through ASEAN, or by great-power initiatives coming from China or the USA. Its main conclusion is that any US hegemony in the region has always been incomplete, and a singular hegemony seems precarious for the future. A coalitional hegemony would be deeply divisive, as it would exclude China. Hence, the most plausible future model is a form of collective hegemony, one that is multilayered and displays a complex hierarchy.Less

Power-Transition, Offensive-Realism, and Leadership Long-Cycle Perspectives on Structural Transitions

David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson

in Transition Scenarios: China and the United States in the Twenty-First Century

If we assume structural change is critical to systemic transitions, which existing models are best suited for analyzing these phenomena? Three schools of thought – power transition, offensive ... More

If we assume structural change is critical to systemic transitions, which existing models are best suited for analyzing these phenomena? Three schools of thought – power transition, offensive realism, and leadership long cycle – are examined extensively. All three have positive and negative features but, on balance, we think the leadership long cycle approach is best suited. It distinguishes between regional and global activities and it has a long historical script (and, therefore, multiple transition cases). Analytical emphasis is placed on the role of radical technological changes as opposed to generic economic change or mainly the distribution of military power. One thing that is needed and carried out in this chapter is the integration of several different long cycle models into one challenger/transition model to guide the study of leadership transition dynamics.Less

Introduction: Order Transition in East Asia

Evelyn Goh

in The Struggle for Order: Hegemony, Hierarchy, and Transition in Post-Cold War East Asia

This chapter describes the puzzle of East Asia’s key post-Cold War strategic developments, which do not conform to what mainstream International Relations theories would predict. It presents the ... More

This chapter describes the puzzle of East Asia’s key post-Cold War strategic developments, which do not conform to what mainstream International Relations theories would predict. It presents the book’s argument that the most important strategic changes have reflected not balance of power challenges to U.S. primacy, but rather a complex process of re-negotiating the consensus on values, rights and duties that underpins U.S. hegemony vis-ò-vis other states. It situates the book’s core claims about hegemony and order within an English School context, further critiquing and developing power transition theory in order to establish the ‘order transition’ framework. The chapter ends with a preview of the way this transition is analysed in the rest of the book.Less

The Fates of Nations: Decline by the Numbers

Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent

in Twilight of the Titans: Great Power Decline and Retrenchment

This chapter discusses research design: how cases were selected, issues with measurement, and the quantitative and qualitative ways variables were operationalized. It then overviews all the cases to ... More

This chapter discusses research design: how cases were selected, issues with measurement, and the quantitative and qualitative ways variables were operationalized. It then overviews all the cases to see general patterns and correlations. It finds little support for preventive war and domestic dysfunction arguments, while retrenchment appears to be the most common and effective response to great power decline. Statistical tests are run to compare how declining states' defense policies and crisis behavior differ from non-declining states, and a brief view is provided of how the data portrays rising state behavior.Less

Introduction: The Problem of Rising Powers in International Politics

Michelle Murray

in The Struggle for Recognition in International Relations: Status, Revisionism, and Rising Powers

This chapter introduces the puzzle of power transitions, summarizes the main argument of the book and locates it in the existing scholarship on power transitions. The conventional wisdom is that ... More

This chapter introduces the puzzle of power transitions, summarizes the main argument of the book and locates it in the existing scholarship on power transitions. The conventional wisdom is that power transitions are inherently destabilizing to the international order because shifts in the distribution of power lead rising powers to want to revise the international order to better reflect their own interests. However, as the historical record demonstrates, not all rising powers have been considered revisionist and not all power transitions have led to war. This chapter argues that the existing approaches understate the importance of the social factors that shape the dynamics of power transitions. To address these empirical and theoretical limitations, this book provides a framework, grounded in the struggle for recognition, for understanding the social factors that shape a power transition.Less

Growth, Trust, and Historical Comparisons

in Looking for Balance: China, the United States, and Power Balancing in East Asia

This chapter examines the sources of changing balance of power. It addresses the issue of how increased power affects a state's disposition to trust others and how its own actions are likely to ... More

This chapter examines the sources of changing balance of power. It addresses the issue of how increased power affects a state's disposition to trust others and how its own actions are likely to affect others' disposition to trust it. The chapter discusses the communication which states can undertake to reassure each other that they are interested in protecting their security rather than expanding their power and the policy ensemble available to a declining power. It also considers the so-called power transition theory and provides historical comparison of several instances of changes in balance of power.Less

Imagining the Worst, Hoping for the Best

Feng Zhang and Richard Ned Lebow

in Taming Sino-American Rivalry

The deterioration of Sino-American relations has become a matter of growing concern for policymakers and academics in both countries. This chapter offers a critique of the American realist and ... More

The deterioration of Sino-American relations has become a matter of growing concern for policymakers and academics in both countries. This chapter offers a critique of the American realist and liberal positions on China and examines a diverse range of Chinese views, highlighting the importance of understanding Chinese concepts and perspectives. A common flaw of realist and liberal theories is that they do not attempt to understand Chinese foreign policy goals and means with reference to Chinese culture and history. But such reference is a starting point critical to any serious analysis. Of special importance is the traditional Chinese principle of wangdao, or humane authority, which is surprisingly similar to the ancient Greek understanding of hēgemonia. The overview of this chapter drives home the inadequacy of analyzing foreign policy in terms of power and relative power and draws attention to the importance of the goals that political elites seek and the ends they consider appropriate to them.Less

America First: The Trump Grand Strategy in a Comparative Perspective

Benjamin Miller and Ziv Rubinovitz

in Grand Strategy from Truman to Trump

This chapter explains the rise of America First of Trump in 2016. Trumpism strongly opposes the liberal strategies that dominated US strategy since the end of the Cold War. There are also marked ... More

This chapter explains the rise of America First of Trump in 2016. Trumpism strongly opposes the liberal strategies that dominated US strategy since the end of the Cold War. There are also marked differences between realism and Trumpism.Less

Why Nations Rise . . . or Remain Reticent

Manjari Chatterjee Miller

in Why Nations Rise: Narratives and the Path to Great Power

What is known of rising powers is both sparse and contentious. This chapter discusses the assumptions of rising powers and puts forward an alternate way of understanding them. It shows that all ... More

What is known of rising powers is both sparse and contentious. This chapter discusses the assumptions of rising powers and puts forward an alternate way of understanding them. It shows that all rising powers are not the same, even if their military and economic power is increasing relative to the status quo, and argues that narratives about becoming a great power are an additional element that needs to be considered. It also discusses what great power meant in the late 19th century, during the Cold War, and in post–Cold War eras, and lays out the map of the book. Topics covered in this chapter include the power transition and rising power literature, the role of ideas in foreign policy, and an overview of the perceptions of great power.Less

How Hegemonic Orders Unravel

Alexander Cooley and Daniel Nexon

in Exit from Hegemony: The Unraveling of the American Global Order

This chapter identifies three drivers of hegemonic unraveling and transformation in international orders: great-power contestation and alternative order building; how the dominant power’s loss of its ... More

This chapter identifies three drivers of hegemonic unraveling and transformation in international orders: great-power contestation and alternative order building; how the dominant power’s loss of its “patronage monopoly” enhances the bargaining leverage of weaker states; and the rise of counter-order movements, especially transnational ones, that weaken support for existing international arrangements—sometimes within the leading power itself. Because analysts tend to focus their attention on the relationship between power transitions and great-power wars, they have only recently begun to appreciate the significance of these three processes. This chapter shows that these challenges—from above, below, and within—played a key role in past power transitions and transformations in international order, including the decline of Spanish hegemony, challenges to British hegemony before World War I, the rise of fascism and Bolshevism during the interwar period, decolonization, and the collapse of the Soviet system.Less

The Making of Qing Hegemony

Ji-Young Lee

in China's Hegemony: Four Hundred Years of East Asian Domination

Chapter 5 examines how Japan and Korea responded to the Ming-Qing transition with the rise of Manchu (later the Qing empire) power. The chapter shows the clear links between the Qing empire’s ... More

Chapter 5 examines how Japan and Korea responded to the Ming-Qing transition with the rise of Manchu (later the Qing empire) power. The chapter shows the clear links between the Qing empire’s “barbarian” identity and its strategic consequences for the making of hegemony. Japan and Korea’s responses to the Qing empire cannot be understood without considering their political leaders’ use of the Qing empire’s perceived cultural inferiority to their advantage, in ways that enhanced their domestic authority against their own rivals.Less

Basic Rationale and Arguments

Steve Chan, Huiyun Feng, Kai He, and Weixing Hu

in Contesting Revisionism: China, the United States, and the Transformation of International Order

Despite realists’ emphasis on the role of national power in interstate relations, foreign policy analysis is fundamentally concerned with states’ intentions rather than their capabilities. Arguably, ... More

Despite realists’ emphasis on the role of national power in interstate relations, foreign policy analysis is fundamentally concerned with states’ intentions rather than their capabilities. Arguably, revisionism occupies a central place in the discourse on states’ intentions. Yet despite its analytic importance, existing discourse on this concept is fraught with serious problems. This chapter identifies various issues in the ways that it has been applied theoretically and substantively. It draws a distinction between international order and the interstate distribution of power and argues that revisionism pertains to the former but not the latter. It also presents a preview of the chapters to follow.Less

Predation Theory

Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson

in Rising Titans, Falling Giants: How Great Powers Exploit Power Shifts

This chapter elaborates on the core argument. After advancing a typology of rising state strategies, the chapter develops a theory of rising state strategy toward declining great powers. The theory – ... More

This chapter elaborates on the core argument. After advancing a typology of rising state strategies, the chapter develops a theory of rising state strategy toward declining great powers. The theory – termed “predation theory” – proposes that rising state strategy depends on (1) whether a rising state can use a declining state to oppose other great powers, and (2) the military threat a declining state poses. All things being equal, the more a rising state can use a decliner against other great powers and the less threatening the declining state, the more likely a rising state is to support; conversely, the less useful a declining state in opposing other great powers, the more likely a rising state is to prey. The chapter concludes by discussing research design and justifying the cases examined in the rest of the volume.Less

Introduction

Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent

in Twilight of the Titans: Great Power Decline and Retrenchment

This chapter asks the central question, outlines the three main arguments, and explains the value added of the work. It underscores why the question matters to theories of international politics and ... More

This chapter asks the central question, outlines the three main arguments, and explains the value added of the work. It underscores why the question matters to theories of international politics and policy debates on the rise of China and the decline of the United States. It also defines decline and retrenchment,relates retrenchment to a spectrum of grand strategies, and provides a map of the rest of the book.Less

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: Debating Decline

Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent

in Twilight of the Titans: Great Power Decline and Retrenchment

This chapter reviews the literature and lays out the debate on decline. It divides the rival views into two main camps: preventive war and domestic dysfunction. For preventive war theorists, who ... More

This chapter reviews the literature and lays out the debate on decline. It divides the rival views into two main camps: preventive war and domestic dysfunction. For preventive war theorists, who include power transition and hegemonic stability theorists, there are strong international incentives for falling states to stave off their declines through aggressive or inflexible policies that culminate in war. For scholars of domestic dysfunction, decentralization, paralysis, or hijacking by special interests are likely to block prompt and proportionate strategic adjustment. This chapter questions the logic and evidence of each.Less

China’s Rise and Security Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula

Chung-In Moon

in Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia

This chapter looks at South Korea's response to the rise of China. It establishes South Korea's growing dependence on the Chinese economy and its growing cooperation with China to manage North Korean ... More

This chapter looks at South Korea's response to the rise of China. It establishes South Korea's growing dependence on the Chinese economy and its growing cooperation with China to manage North Korean belligerence. The rise of China creates strategic pressure on South Korea both to accommodate Chinese interests and to maintain defense cooperation with the United States, and that this policy challenge is exacerbated by politically significant anti-Japanese nationalism in South Korea. The result has been significant South Korean policy instability. The policy swings in South Korea's maneuvering between the United States and China from the government of Roh Moo-hyun to that of Lee Myung-bak and then to Park Geun-hye reveal the difficulty that great power competition during a power transition imposes on a small country.Less

The Second Sino-American Rivalry

William R. Thompson

in American Global Pre-Eminence: The Development and Erosion of Systemic Leadership

Whether or not a new system leader is just around the corner, what should we expect in the interactions between the incumbent leader and its presumed challenger? There is as much interest among Asian ... More

Whether or not a new system leader is just around the corner, what should we expect in the interactions between the incumbent leader and its presumed challenger? There is as much interest among Asian specialists about whether the Asian region is ripe for rivalry as there is about the nature of the second Sino-American rivalry. Yet it can be demonstrated empirically that the Asian region is not moving toward increasing interstate rivalry—implying that we should focus more on one prominent rivalry than on the region’s general propensity to antagonistic interactions. Even so, there is no consensus on how these types of rivalry might be expected to interact. This chapter reviews eight models/theories: the Thucydides Trap, Power Transition, System Leader Retrenchment, Risk Assessments to Rising Challengers, Time Horizon Assessments of Rising Challengers, Rising Challenger Assessments of Incumbents based on Strategic Value and Military Position, Rising Power Status Immobility, and Geostructural Realism.Less