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Introduction: The Puzzle of Regional Power Shifts

Evan Braden Montgomery

in In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers

This book examines how leading states—great powers that occupy a unique position thanks to the sources of their wealth, the types of armed forces they build, and the responsibilities they ... More

This book examines how leading states—great powers that occupy a unique position thanks to the sources of their wealth, the types of armed forces they build, and the responsibilities they assume—respond to power shifts in peripheral regions. More specifically, it considers how a leading state reacts when a rising power in the periphery challenges the prevailing regional order. Drawing on a theory that borrows insights from the two main schools of realist theory, balance-of-power realism and preponderance-of-power realism, the book explains why a leading state has accommodated some rising regional powers (RRPs) but opposed others, especially when local power shifts have led to war. It also employs qualitative case studies to elucidate how leading states in different historical eras have responded to RRPs across the globe, with particular emphasis on Great Britain and the United States.Less

How Leading States Respond to Rising Regional Powers

Evan Braden Montgomery

in In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers

This chapter examines how leading states respond to rising regional powers (RRPs). More specifically, it asks why leading states have accommodated some emerging powers in peripheral regions but ... More

This chapter examines how leading states respond to rising regional powers (RRPs). More specifically, it asks why leading states have accommodated some emerging powers in peripheral regions but opposed others. Before discussing the different strategies employed by RRPs to deal with power shifts in peripheral regions, the chapter proposes a theory that addresses a pair of issues: the type of regional order that a leading state prefers and the type of power shift that appears to be taking place. It also considers the two main risks that determine whether a leading state will favor regional parity, regional primacy, or both: the risk of access denial and the risk of containment failure. Finally, it explores the relationship between a leading state's risk assessment and its preferred regional order.Less

Conclusion: The Past and Future of Rising Regional Powers

Evan Braden Montgomery

in In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers

This book has explored how leading states have responded to power shifts in peripheral regions and why they have accommodated some rising regional powers (RRPs) but opposed others. It has introduced ... More

This book has explored how leading states have responded to power shifts in peripheral regions and why they have accommodated some rising regional powers (RRPs) but opposed others. It has introduced a new theory that explains why leading states differed in their responses to RRPs by emphasizing the interaction between the type of regional order preferred by a leading state and the type of power shift that it believes is taking place. The first step in the theory entails figuring out whether a leading state favors regional parity or regional primacy, or whether it is impartial between these alternative orders. The second step involves determining how an emerging regional power will alter the local status quo and whether the expected consequences of its rise are compatible with a leading state's preferences. This concluding chapter summarizes the book's arguments and evidence and discusses several implications for international relations theory. It also considers what the book's framework would suggest about the United States's relations with two contemporary regional powers: India and Iran.Less

Dynamical Entropy

Robert Alicki and Mark Fannes

in Quantum Dynamical Systems

A non-zero Kolmogrov–Sinai entropy for a classical dynamical system is a signature of dynamical instability. This chapter presents an approach to quantifying randomizing dynamical behaviour in ... More

A non-zero Kolmogrov–Sinai entropy for a classical dynamical system is a signature of dynamical instability. This chapter presents an approach to quantifying randomizing dynamical behaviour in deterministic quantum systems based on a spin chain model. The starting point is an operational partition that is refined in the course of time. To each partition corresponds a correlation matrix and the dynamics lead eventually to a shift-invariant state on a quantum spin chain with its associated entropy. General properties and bounds are proved, which allow for the computation of the entropy in a number of simple model systems such as finite systems, shift dynamics on a quantum spin chain, free shifts, and Powers–Price shifts.Less

After the West? Toward a New International System?

Michael Cox

in International Relations Since the End of the Cold War: New and Old Dimensions

Over the past few years the view has become common that the world that is in the midst of an irreversible global transition that can only work to the disadvantage of the more traditional centres of ... More

Over the past few years the view has become common that the world that is in the midst of an irreversible global transition that can only work to the disadvantage of the more traditional centres of western power. America’s foreign policy setbacks since 9/11, its economic and political woes following the financial crisis, the Euro crisis, and of course the rise of China, Asia and many other emerging countries – collectively known as the ‘rest - have together been seen as sure signs that a power shift is taking place that is rendering the world less western and more multi-polar. This chapter examines this thesis and suggests that whilst there have been significant economic changes over the past decade, these have neither undermined the economic, military or ideological power of the West or led to an irreversible power shift.  The West retains many advantages. Indeed, the rise of the rest – made possible by effectively ‘buying into’ the West - will over time render the West, including the United States, potentially more secure rather than less.  We need a new way therefore of thinking about the changing international system, one that does not assume that change by definition is bound to lead to decline for some and greater collective power for others.Less

Ergodic Theory

Robert Alicki and Mark Fannes

in Quantum Dynamical Systems

This chapter defines and characterizes various degrees of ergodicity — both for classical and quantum systems — in terms of the Hilbert space formalism, Koopman formalism for classical systems, and ... More

This chapter defines and characterizes various degrees of ergodicity — both for classical and quantum systems — in terms of the Hilbert space formalism, Koopman formalism for classical systems, and GNS-representation for quantum systems. It presents mixing and asymptotic Abelianness. It then discusses a number of examples with non-trivial algebraic structures: quasi-free Fermionic automorphisms, highly anti-commutative systems, and Powers–Price shifts. It is shown that under certain ergodic assumptions the fluctuations around ergodic means can be modelled by Bose fields in quasi-free states (Gaussian distributions), the other extreme cases lead to a free probability scheme with semi-circular distributions. Expanding maps and Lyapunov exponents for classical dynamics are briefly discussed and a possible quantum analog, horocyclic actions, is presented for a quantum cat map.Less

The Emergence of Iraq and the Competition to Control the Gulf, 1979–1991

Evan Braden Montgomery

in In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers

This chapter examines the United States's response to the emergence of Iraq as a rising power and its policy toward Southwest Asia during the period 1979–1991. It discusses U.S. policy toward ... More

This chapter examines the United States's response to the emergence of Iraq as a rising power and its policy toward Southwest Asia during the period 1979–1991. It discusses U.S. policy toward Southwest Asia during the administrations of Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush. In particular, it analyzes the changes in U.S. stance toward Iran and Iraq and argues that this variation can be explained by the United States's preferred regional order and the direction of the power shifts that took place. It also considers Washington's concerns about the risk of containment failure in relation to the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the risk of access denial with regards to Iranian and Iraqi struggle to dominate their neighborhood. Under these conditions, the chapter argues that the United States's preference for regional primacy gave way to a preference for regional parity.Less

Insights from History of Power Shifts and Growing Interdependence

in The World Under Pressure: How China and India Are Influencing the Global Economy and Environment

This chapter examines three contrasting theories about international relations and political economy that provide important insights into power shifts and global stability. Realist theory focuses on ... More

This chapter examines three contrasting theories about international relations and political economy that provide important insights into power shifts and global stability. Realist theory focuses on power while liberal theory focuses more on growth. In contrast, neoliberal theory proposes complex interdependence. This chapter discusses four trends with strong implications for the rise of China and India in the current global context and lays out a framework for thinking about the global system and analyzing changing economic and geopolitical power over the past two centuries. It also considers the complex interdependence among seven areas: international trade, international finance, economic growth, security, environment, technology, and global governance.Less

Predation Theory

Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson

in Rising Titans, Falling Giants: How Great Powers Exploit Power Shifts

This chapter elaborates on the core argument. After advancing a typology of rising state strategies, the chapter develops a theory of rising state strategy toward declining great powers. The theory – ... More

This chapter elaborates on the core argument. After advancing a typology of rising state strategies, the chapter develops a theory of rising state strategy toward declining great powers. The theory – termed “predation theory” – proposes that rising state strategy depends on (1) whether a rising state can use a declining state to oppose other great powers, and (2) the military threat a declining state poses. All things being equal, the more a rising state can use a decliner against other great powers and the less threatening the declining state, the more likely a rising state is to support; conversely, the less useful a declining state in opposing other great powers, the more likely a rising state is to prey. The chapter concludes by discussing research design and justifying the cases examined in the rest of the volume.Less

Japan and the Creation of a New Order in East Asia, 1894–1902

Evan Braden Montgomery

in In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers

This chapter examines Great Britain's response to the power shift that was taking place in East Asia during the period 1894–1902, and especially to Japan's emergence as a rising power. It first ... More

This chapter examines Great Britain's response to the power shift that was taking place in East Asia during the period 1894–1902, and especially to Japan's emergence as a rising power. It first traces the evolution of the Anglo-Russian rivalry before discussing the power shifts that occurred in the Far East following the Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895. It then considers Great Britain's alliance with Japan and how China was viewed by the great powers following its loss in the Sino-Japanese War. It also explores British concerns about Russian expansion into areas where Great Britain had considerable economic and strategic interests, and shows that British officials relied on preponderant powers in these peripheral regions to help mitigate the risk of containment failure.Less

Introduction: Rising States and the Fate of Declining Great Powers

Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson

in Rising Titans, Falling Giants: How Great Powers Exploit Power Shifts

This chapter introduces the puzzle of rising state strategy toward declining great powers. Although rising states are often expected to prey upon declining great powers, rising states can also adopt ... More

This chapter introduces the puzzle of rising state strategy toward declining great powers. Although rising states are often expected to prey upon declining great powers, rising states can also adopt supportive strategies toward declining great powers, as well as engage in predatory or supportive strategies with varying degrees of intensity. It reviews the relevant literature on the dynamics of great power rise and decline, provides a preview of the basic argument, explains the importance of the topic for theoretical and policy debates, and details alternative arguments. From there, the chapter discusses the methods used to evaluate the argument and the centrality of primary source research to this effort.Less

Rising Powers

in The World Under Pressure: How China and India Are Influencing the Global Economy and Environment

This book examines the unprecedented economic rise of China and India since the 1980s and its implications for international trade, foreign investment, finance, intellectual property rights, ... More

This book examines the unprecedented economic rise of China and India since the 1980s and its implications for international trade, foreign investment, finance, intellectual property rights, competition for natural resources, security, climate change, global governance, and balance of power. It looks at the limited capacity of the environment to absorb increased carbon dioxide emissions attributed to economic development. Specifically, the book explores how the economic growth of China and India affects the environment and geopolitics. It focuses on what can be learned from the history of global power shifts and considers why China and India have been growing faster than the rest of the world for the last three decades. It analyzes some similarities and differences in the two countries' histories and economic policies to explain their growth rates, as well as their growth prospects over the next twenty years. Finally, the book describes the shifts in power that are taking place and the friction they are generating, arguing that these tensions cannot be addressed by the existing international system.Less

Power Shifts and Rising Frictions Have Implications for the Global System and the United States

in The World Under Pressure: How China and India Are Influencing the Global Economy and Environment

The rapid economic growth of China and India has significant implications for the world economy, environment, and geopolitics. This chapter examines changes in the relative importance of China and ... More

The rapid economic growth of China and India has significant implications for the world economy, environment, and geopolitics. This chapter examines changes in the relative importance of China and India across seven areas: international trade, international finance, economic growth, security, environment, technology, and global governance. It shows that a major power shift is under way and looks at the frictions being created by this power shift. It also describes the possibility that tensions may spawn more serious problems such as conflicts over trade, resources, and climate change. Moreover, the geopolitical frictions could give rise to a new type of cold war or even worse. The chapter puts the current system into a historical perspective and considers what this means for the United States, which needs to address the challenge presented by China's rapid growth in order to avert a more rapid decline in the relative welfare of its population.Less

Global Power Shift: The BRICS, Building Capabilities for Influence

Roberts Cynthia, Leslie Armijo, and Saori Katada

in The BRICS and Collective Financial Statecraft

This chapter evaluates multiple dimensions of the global power shift from the incumbent G5/G7 powers to the rising powers, especially the members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South ... More

This chapter evaluates multiple dimensions of the global power shift from the incumbent G5/G7 powers to the rising powers, especially the members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Taking note of alternative conceptualizations of interstate “power,” the text maps the redistribution of economic capabilities from the G7 to the BRICS, most particularly the relative rise of China and decline of Japan, and especially Europe. Given these clear trends in measurable material capabilities, the BRICS have obtained considerable autonomy from outside pressures. Although the BRICS’ economic, financial, and monetary capabilities remain uneven, their relative positions have improved steadily. Via extensive data analysis, the chapter finds that whether one examines China alone or the BRICS as a group, BRICS members have achieved the necessary capabilities to challenge the global economic and financial leadership of the currently dominant powers, perhaps even the United States one day.Less

Protecting the Status Quo: Japan’s Response to the Rise of China

Ian Bowers and Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning

in Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia

This chapter explores the domestic and international sources of Japan's adjustment to the power shift in Sino-Japanese relations. It argues that the growth of the Chinese economy, which is now larger ... More

This chapter explores the domestic and international sources of Japan's adjustment to the power shift in Sino-Japanese relations. It argues that the growth of the Chinese economy, which is now larger than the Japanese economy, and the modernization of the Chinese Navy pose a mounting challenge to Japanese security and its secure access to sea lanes of communication. China's rise and developments in Japanese domestic politics have produced a multifaceted Japanese strategic response to prevent China from posing a significant threat to Japanese security. Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's leadership, Japan has strengthened its domestic capabilities with reform of its national security policymaking institutions and relaxed restrictions on international military cooperation.Less

Rising Powers and the Risks of War: A Realist View of Sino-American Relations

Stephen M. Walt

in Will China's Rise Be Peaceful?: The Rise of a Great Power in Theory, History, Politics , and the Future

For realist theory, major shifts in the balance of power are a potent source of conflict and war. The main exception, which does not disprove the rule, is the United States. Realists believe China’s ... More

For realist theory, major shifts in the balance of power are a potent source of conflict and war. The main exception, which does not disprove the rule, is the United States. Realists believe China’s continued rise will lead to greater security competition between the United States and China and a heightened danger of war. China will try to reduce the US security presence in Asia, leading to competition for allies and influence. In the near term, most Asian states will balance Chinese power by aligning with Washington, but this process will not take place smoothly. Instead, America’s Asian alliances will face dilemmas of collective action, and uncertainty about alliances will tempt China to play “divide-and-rule” and lead to recurring crises. Realist theory cannot tell us the date when serious trouble will arise or the circumstances under which it will occur. But it warns that the potential for trouble is growing.Less

A New Order of Things?: China, America, and the Struggle over World Order

G. John Ikenberry

in Will China's Rise Be Peaceful?: The Rise of a Great Power in Theory, History, Politics , and the Future

This chapter examines the types of challenges that rising states might bring to struggles over international order with a view to the distinctive character of the American-led liberal order and the ... More

This chapter examines the types of challenges that rising states might bring to struggles over international order with a view to the distinctive character of the American-led liberal order and the ways in which this existing order creates constraints and incentives for a rising China. This is contextualized by the geopolitical setting in which China is situated. The chapter argues that even as China faces constraints on the pursuit of a revisionist agenda, it finds incentives to operate within a liberal-oriented international order. China and the United States seem destined to clash over the terms of order in East Asia. But it is a clash that will unfold in a different world-historical setting than past power transitions. The rise of China may bring to an end the era of American hegemony—but it will be harder for China to end the liberal world order that the American era wrought.Less