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Chapter 1 introduces the book as the most significant effort so far to systematically and quantitatively address the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. It shows that by adding education to the conventional demographic characteristics of age and sex, this distinguishing feature substantially alters the perception of population changes and their projections into the future. As background, the chapter also presents a brief history of world population projections and describes the Institute for Applied Systems Analysis tradition since 1988 of producing international projections. This tradition includes the innovative production of probabilistic population projections and the development of structured and well-documented processes for converting expert knowledge into numerical assumptions about future trends. The chapter concludes with an overview of the book’s chapters.

This chapter describes the construction and simulation of the IGEM base case, illustrating how the various components of the model combine to achieve the economy's growth path. Key projections for variables external (exogenous) to IGEM are developed for: (i) population, time endowment, labor quality and household demographics from Census Bureau projections; (ii) government deficits, expenditures and tax rates from CBO 10-year and 75-year projections; (iii) current account deficits from IMF short-term forecasts; (iv) world energy prices from EIA projections. Projections of productivity-related variables and trends are derived from IGEM's underlying econometrics. Also described is the procedure by which IGEM's productivity terms are used to target energy consumption patterns and real GDP for those applications requiring calibrated base cases and cross-model comparisons. Base case (endogenous) results are reported at both the macroeconomic and industry levels of detail and for both uncalibrated and calibrated simulations.

Chapter 9 describes the baseline data and summarizes the methodology that underlies the projections presented in this book for 171 countries of the world by age, sex, and educational attainment. These multidimensional cohort–component projections require a large amount of empirical information, ranging from base year data on populations disaggregated by levels of educational attainment by age and sex to data on educational differentials of fertility and mortality. The chapter also summarizes the procedures by which the assumed trajectories for future fertility, mortality, and migration were derived by combining structured expert judgements with statistical models. It also describes in detail the procedures by which assumptions on aggregate fertility, mortality, and migration trends were translated into education-specific trajectories in order to then calculate the implications of alternative education scenarios.

This chapter argues that contemporary global migration presents a new challenge. It challenges a fundamental premise in liberal thought under which majority groups can perpetuate their culture by controlling entry into the state. Grouping together nine macro and micro—level changes, the chapter traces a transformation in the relationship between majority groups and minority groups. The nine changes occur in migration patterns (scale, character, intensity), in Western society (population decline, changing lifestyles, new human rights regime), and in the world (geopolitics, technology, globalization). Each of these changes, individually, may not be entirely new, yet the combination of them all together at one time has no historical precedent. This reality brings about political and legal responses and raises normative questions. The aim of this chapter is to document the changing reality and show that it is not adequately addressed by political theory and international human rights law.

This chapter presents some findings from the research project ‘Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030’ (MAP2030). The project developed a set of projection models to estimate future family circumstances, incomes, pensions, savings, disability and care needs of older people in England. These projections included public and private expenditure on pensions, disability benefits and care services under different scenarios for reform of pensions and long-term care funding under a range of alternative population futures. The chapter focuses on the projected future costs and impacts for the different income quintiles of the older population of proposed reforms to the system of funding adult social care, in particular the impact of a cap on individual liability to meet care costs.

To date, one's thinking around ‘accommodation and care’ in later life focuses on very old people who are seen as unable to fit into mainstream housing and whose needs have been labelled as special, segregated, or separate, rather than accepting accommodation and care as part of society's needs in general. However, at present, it is undeniable that people are becoming a part of an ageing population whose structure is changing and where there will be a great diversity of household types. This chapter explores the changing population, the type of society that is developing, how this is affecting where people live, and the experiences that many older people now face. It includes a brief discussion on population projections, geographical variations, and the changing nature of households and the social, psychological, and physiological issues relating to it.

This chapter describes the IGEM in detail – the demand and supply sides of the economy, the inter-industry (input-output) structure and the determination of intertemporal equilibrium. The production function allows for substitution among inputs, autonomous technical change, and induced technical change. The household model allows an aggregate demand function to be expressed as a sum of individual household demand functions; this aggregate function is non-homothetic and depends on the demographic projections of the population. Household optimization also generates goods demand and labor supply. Intertemporal optimization generates savings and hence investment for capital accumulation and the cost-of-capital equation. The model is made consistent with the National Accounts and the Input-Output accounts. We describe the solution algorithm.