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Working Hard or Hardly Working for those Rose-colored Glasses?: Behavioral and Neural Evidence for the Automatic Nature of Unrealistically Positive Self-Perceptions

Jennifer S. Beer

in Self Control in Society, Mind, and Brain

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
May 2010
ISBN:
9780195391381
eISBN:
9780199776894
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195391381.003.0003
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience, Social Psychology

Even rose-colored glasses cannot hide the apparent discrepancy between models of self-control and the adaptive view of positive illusions. Most models of self-control suggest that accurate ... More


Heuristic‐Driven Bias: The First Theme

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Statistics and probability are essential concepts when it comes to risk. Yet, most people have poor intuition about statistics and probabilities. Instead of behaving like professional statisticians, ... More


Inefficient Markets: The Third Theme

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Markets are efficient when prices coincide with intrinsic value. Heuristic‐driven bias and frame dependence combine to render markets inefficient. Representativeness leads to the winner–loser effect, ... More


Trying to Predict the Market

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0005
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Wall Street strategists are susceptible to gambler's fallacy. In general, four important behavioral elements affect the market predictions of investors: overconfidence, betting on trends, anchoring ... More


Sentimental Journey: The Illusion of Validity

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Many investors believe they can make money by betting against the market predictions contained in advisory newsletters. Yet, they are wrong. Investors are wrong about advisory newsletters, and they ... More


Picking Stocks to Beat the Market

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

The third theme of behavioral finance is inefficient markets. In recent years scholars have produced considerable evidence that heuristic‐driven bias and frame dependence cause markets to be ... More


Fixed Income Securities: The Full Measure of Behavioral Phenomena

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0014
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

This chapter discusses some of the successes and failures associated with the management of fixed income securities, first by presenting a case, and then by discussing some general issues associated ... More


Corporate Takeovers and the Winner's Curse

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0016
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

There is general evidence that corporate executives exhibit hubris, that they are impressed with their own abilities. Since July 1996, the Financial Executives Institute and Duke University have been ... More


Excessive Speculation in Foreign Exchange Markets

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0021
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Foreign exchange traders engage in excessive speculation, stemming from heuristic‐driven bias. In particular, foreign exchange traders seem to overreact, bet on trends, and are overconfident. ... More


Rethinking Cognitive Biases as Environmental Consequences

Gerd Gigerenzer, Klaus Fiedler, and Henrik Olsson

in Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780195315448
eISBN:
9780199932429
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195315448.003.0025
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Human-Technology Interaction

Cognitive processes and their adaptive functions can hardly be understood if we look exclusively inside the mind, such as when we try to explain behavior with traits, attitudes, or preferences. ... More


Excess Entry and Entrepreneurial Decisions: The Role of Overconfidence

Philipp Koellinger, Maria Minniti, and Christian Schade

in The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Data

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780199580866
eISBN:
9780191728716
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580866.003.0002
Subject:
Business and Management, Innovation

Overconfidence is one of the most pervasive biases in human behavior and has been offered as an explanation for the high failure rates of start‐ups. Recent works, however, have shown that excess ... More


Putting Epistemology into Practice: Positive Advice

Michael A Bishop and J. D. Trout

in Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780195162295
eISBN:
9780199835539
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195162293.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter attempts to consolidate some of the lessons of Ameliorative Psychology with some handy heuristics and illustrative injunctions. It explores the empirical research that shows how to ... More


Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics

Dominic D. P. Johnson

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9780691137452
eISBN:
9780691185606
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691137452.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases — quirks of the brain we all share as human beings — are detrimental and responsible for policy ... More


Global Economic Crisis and the Crisis in Economics

George F. DeMartino

in The Economist’s Oath: On the Need for and Content of Professional Economic Ethics

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780199730568
eISBN:
9780199896776
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199730568.003.0010
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Public and Welfare

This chapter explores the culpability of the economics profession in the current global economic crisis. Like the previous chapter, it demonstrates that leading economists pursued a maxi-max decision ... More


The naïve intuitive statistician:: Organism—environment relations from yet another angle

Patrik Hansson, Peter Juslin, and Anders Winman

in The Probabilistic Mind:: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199216093
eISBN:
9780191695971
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199216093.003.0011
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

The authors assume that, roughly, the cognitive system is able to provide a good analysis of the data which it experiences — i.e. cognition can be seen as intuitive statistics (Gigerenzer & Murray, ... More


Barriers to Dispute Resolution: Reflections on Peacemaking and Relationships between Adversaries

Byron Bland, Brenna Powell, and Lee Ross

in Understanding Social Action, Promoting Human Rights

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
January 2013
ISBN:
9780195371895
eISBN:
9780199979127
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195371895.003.0010
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

In Chapter 10, social psychologist Lee Ross, ethicist Byron Bland, and political scientist Brenna Powell offer an interdisciplinary analysis of persistent psychological barriers to conflict ... More


Fortune Favors the Bold: The Strategic Advantages of Overconfidence

Dominic D. P. Johnson

in Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9780691137452
eISBN:
9780691185606
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691137452.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the strategic role of overconfidence. It describes mentally healthy people that exhibit an overestimation of their capabilities, an illusion of control over events, and a ... More


The Lion and the Mouse: Overconfidence and the American Revolution

Dominic D. P. Johnson

in Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9780691137452
eISBN:
9780691185606
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691137452.003.0005
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter looks at a case study of the American Revolution to suggest that George Washington and the birth of the United States benefited in no small measure from a remarkable confidence. It ... More


Cognitive Bias and the Misuse of Military Power

Ned Dobos

in Ethics, Security, and The War-Machine: The True Cost of the Military

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
July 2020
ISBN:
9780198860518
eISBN:
9780191892554
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198860518.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

Wherever there is a military establishment, there is a danger that its use will not be confined to the prosecution of ‘just wars’ and interventions. In other words, there is a risk of the armed ... More


Avoidance of Miserly Information Processing: Indirect Effects

Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, and Maggie E. Toplak

in The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780262034845
eISBN:
9780262336819
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034845.003.0008
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Chapter 7 discussed four subtests that are direct measures of the avoidance of miserly processing on the CART. Chapter 8 discusses how the CART also contains six other subtests that assess the ... More


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