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Working Hard or Hardly Working for those Rose-colored Glasses?: Behavioral and Neural Evidence for the Automatic Nature of Unrealistically Positive Self-Perceptions

Jennifer S. Beer

in Self Control in Society, Mind, and Brain

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
May 2010
ISBN:
9780195391381
eISBN:
9780199776894
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195391381.003.0003
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience, Social Psychology

Even rose-colored glasses cannot hide the apparent discrepancy between models of self-control and the adaptive view of positive illusions. Most models of self-control suggest that accurate ... More


Heuristic‐Driven Bias: The First Theme

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Statistics and probability are essential concepts when it comes to risk. Yet, most people have poor intuition about statistics and probabilities. Instead of behaving like professional statisticians, ... More


Inefficient Markets: The Third Theme

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Markets are efficient when prices coincide with intrinsic value. Heuristic‐driven bias and frame dependence combine to render markets inefficient. Representativeness leads to the winner–loser effect, ... More


Trying to Predict the Market

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0005
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Wall Street strategists are susceptible to gambler's fallacy. In general, four important behavioral elements affect the market predictions of investors: overconfidence, betting on trends, anchoring ... More


Sentimental Journey: The Illusion of Validity

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Many investors believe they can make money by betting against the market predictions contained in advisory newsletters. Yet, they are wrong. Investors are wrong about advisory newsletters, and they ... More


Picking Stocks to Beat the Market

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

The third theme of behavioral finance is inefficient markets. In recent years scholars have produced considerable evidence that heuristic‐driven bias and frame dependence cause markets to be ... More


Fixed Income Securities: The Full Measure of Behavioral Phenomena

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0014
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

This chapter discusses some of the successes and failures associated with the management of fixed income securities, first by presenting a case, and then by discussing some general issues associated ... More


Corporate Takeovers and the Winner's Curse

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0016
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

There is general evidence that corporate executives exhibit hubris, that they are impressed with their own abilities. Since July 1996, the Financial Executives Institute and Duke University have been ... More


Excessive Speculation in Foreign Exchange Markets

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0021
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Foreign exchange traders engage in excessive speculation, stemming from heuristic‐driven bias. In particular, foreign exchange traders seem to overreact, bet on trends, and are overconfident. ... More


Rethinking Cognitive Biases as Environmental Consequences

Gerd Gigerenzer, Klaus Fiedler, and Henrik Olsson

in Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780195315448
eISBN:
9780199932429
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195315448.003.0025
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Human-Technology Interaction

Cognitive processes and their adaptive functions can hardly be understood if we look exclusively inside the mind, such as when we try to explain behavior with traits, attitudes, or preferences. ... More


Putting Epistemology into Practice: Positive Advice

Michael A Bishop and J. D. Trout

in Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780195162295
eISBN:
9780199835539
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195162293.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter attempts to consolidate some of the lessons of Ameliorative Psychology with some handy heuristics and illustrative injunctions. It explores the empirical research that shows how to ... More


Excess Entry and Entrepreneurial Decisions: The Role of Overconfidence

Philipp Koellinger, Maria Minniti, and Christian Schade

in The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Data

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780199580866
eISBN:
9780191728716
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580866.003.0002
Subject:
Business and Management, Innovation

Overconfidence is one of the most pervasive biases in human behavior and has been offered as an explanation for the high failure rates of start‐ups. Recent works, however, have shown that excess ... More


Global Economic Crisis and the Crisis in Economics

George F. DeMartino

in The Economist’s Oath: On the Need for and Content of Professional Economic Ethics

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780199730568
eISBN:
9780199896776
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199730568.003.0010
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Public and Welfare

This chapter explores the culpability of the economics profession in the current global economic crisis. Like the previous chapter, it demonstrates that leading economists pursued a maxi-max decision ... More


The naïve intuitive statistician:: Organism—environment relations from yet another angle

Patrik Hansson, Peter Juslin, and Anders Winman

in The Probabilistic Mind:: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199216093
eISBN:
9780191695971
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199216093.003.0011
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

The authors assume that, roughly, the cognitive system is able to provide a good analysis of the data which it experiences — i.e. cognition can be seen as intuitive statistics (Gigerenzer & Murray, ... More


Barriers to Dispute Resolution: Reflections on Peacemaking and Relationships between Adversaries

Byron Bland, Brenna Powell, and Lee Ross

in Understanding Social Action, Promoting Human Rights

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
January 2013
ISBN:
9780195371895
eISBN:
9780199979127
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195371895.003.0010
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

In Chapter 10, social psychologist Lee Ross, ethicist Byron Bland, and political scientist Brenna Powell offer an interdisciplinary analysis of persistent psychological barriers to conflict ... More


Avoidance of Miserly Information Processing: Indirect Effects

Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, and Maggie E. Toplak

in The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780262034845
eISBN:
9780262336819
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034845.003.0008
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Chapter 7 discussed four subtests that are direct measures of the avoidance of miserly processing on the CART. Chapter 8 discusses how the CART also contains six other subtests that assess the ... More


Managing Heuristics

William Ascher

in Bringing in the Future: Strategies for Farsightedness and Sustainability in Developing Countries

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226029160
eISBN:
9780226029184
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226029184.003.0012
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

This chapter addresses the examination of heuristics. The availability heuristic, similarity heuristic, affect heuristic, fluency heuristic, causality heuristic, and surprise heuristic are discussed. ... More


Process and Perception: Kristen’s Cookie Company from a Behavioral Point of View

Steve V. Walton and Michael Alan Sacks

in The Handbook of Behavioral Operations Management: Social and Psychological Dynamics in Production and Service Settings

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
May 2015
ISBN:
9780199357215
eISBN:
9780190239336
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199357215.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Behavioural Economics

Historically, we teach process analysis from a rational point of view.  The underlying assumption of this approach was that if you understand the math then you understand process analysis. Many of us ... More


Behavioral Aspects of Commodity Markets

John R. Nofsinger

in Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
March 2018
ISBN:
9780190656010
eISBN:
9780190656041
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190656010.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

Are behavioral biases prevalent in commodities and futures markets? Although retail equity investors display many psychological biases, investors who are more sophisticated exhibit fewer biases. The ... More


Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles

José A. Scheinkman and Wei Xiong

in New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
April 2015
ISBN:
9780199844333
eISBN:
9780190258504
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780199844333.003.0010
Subject:
Business and Management, Finance, Accounting, and Banking

This chapter presents a behavioral-based model for studying asset price bubbles and trading volume based on heterogeneous beliefs generated by agents' overconfidence. It describes the explicit links ... More


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