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 Keeping Up to Date

Ken Binmore

in Playing for Real: Game Theory

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
May 2007
ISBN:
9780195300574
eISBN:
9780199783748
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300574.003.0013
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter is about Bayesian decision theory. It explains why game theorists model players' beliefs using subjective probability distributions, and how these beliefs are updated using Bayes' rule ... More


Epistemic Conditional Probability: The Sober Truth

Alvin Plantinga

in Warrant and Proper Function

Published in print:
1993
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195078640
eISBN:
9780199872213
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195078640.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

In Ch. 8, I distinguished epistemic probability from objective probability and then pointed out some debilitating problems with the three main accounts of epistemic probability. In this chapter, I ... More


Objective Epistemic Probability

Peter Achinstein

in The Book of Evidence

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195143898
eISBN:
9780199833023
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195143892.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

A new concept of probability ‐ objective epistemic probability ‐ is introduced and defended. It is epistemic because it is a measure of the degree of reasonableness of believing something; it is ... More


Subjective Probabilities

John L. Pollock

in Thinking about Acting: Logical Foundations for Rational Decision Making

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195304817
eISBN:
9780199850907
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195304817.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind

This chapter examines subjective probabilities. Historically, theories of objective probability came first. Subjective probability theory arose as a response to difficulties encountered in making ... More


Epistemic Probability: Some Current Views

Alvin Plantinga

in Warrant and Proper Function

Published in print:
1993
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195078640
eISBN:
9780199872213
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195078640.003.0008
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

In circumstances where one proposition A (or group of propositions G) is propositional evidence for another proposition B, my believing A (or G) can confer warrant (for me) upon B. I use the term ... More


Statistical Thought: A Perspective and History

Shoutir Kishore Chatterjee

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780198525318
eISBN:
9780191711657
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198525318.001.0001
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

The book examines the distinguishing features of the various contending approaches to statistical inference (including decision-making) that are currently available in statistical literature, and ... More


The Subjectivity of Indicative Conditionals

Jonathan Bennett

in A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199258871
eISBN:
9780191597046
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199258872.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language

Discussion of reasons for approaching indicative conditionals in terms of subjective rather than objective probability. The reasons include stand‐offs of the sort Gibbard has presented: cases where ... More


Taking the Prior Seriously: Bayesian Analysis without Subjective Probability

Daniel Goodman

in The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226789552
eISBN:
9780226789583
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226789583.003.0012
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

Decision theory requires the assignment of probabilities for the different possible states of nature. Bayesian inference provides such probabilities, but at the cost of requiring prior probabilities ... More


Teleological Arguments

Tim Mulgan

in Purpose in the Universe: The moral and metaphysical case for Ananthropocentric Purposivism

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2015
ISBN:
9780199646142
eISBN:
9780191813993
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199646142.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter explores several teleological arguments for Ananthropocentric Purposivism. The most important is the fine-tuning argument, where God or cosmic purpose is necessary to explain why ... More


Experimental Utility Measurement: The Age of Confidence I, 1950–1960

Ivan Moscati

in Measuring Utility: From the Marginal Revolution to Behavioral Economics

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
December 2018
ISBN:
9780199372768
eISBN:
9780199372805
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780199372768.003.0014
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

Chapter 13 discusses some laboratory experiments to measure the utility of money for individuals on the basis of their preferences between gambles where small amounts of money were at stake. The ... More


The Conditional Analysis and Modal Stability

Joseph Mendola

in Human Interests: or Ethics for Physicalists

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
May 2014
ISBN:
9780199682829
eISBN:
9780191763007
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199682829.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter defends a version of the conditional analysis of ability: A human conscious agent at a time has an option in action if and only if it is true that (i) there is something such that if ... More


Chance and Causation

Carl Hoefer

in Chance in the World: A Humean Guide to Objective Chance

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
October 2019
ISBN:
9780190907419
eISBN:
9780190907440
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190907419.003.0008
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

Causality and objective probability are often linked. Some philosophers have tried to characterize objectively chancy setups as incomplete, partial causes of the various possible outcomes the setup ... More


Chance and Context

Toby Handfield and Alastair Wilson

in Chance and Temporal Asymmetry

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199673421
eISBN:
9780191782534
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199673421.003.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

The most familiar philosophical conception of objective chance renders determinism incompatible with non-trivial chances. This conception—associated in particular with the work of David Lewis—is not ... More


Counterfactuals and Probability

Robert Stalnaker

in Conditionals, Paradox, and Probability: Themes from the Philosophy of Dorothy Edgington

Published in print:
2021
Published Online:
January 2021
ISBN:
9780198712732
eISBN:
9780191781070
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198712732.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics, Philosophy of Language

Dorothy Edgington has been a resolute defender of an NTV account of conditionals, according to which a conditional does not express a proposition that makes a categorical claim about the world, but ... More


The Success Condition

Fernando R. Tesón

in Debating Humanitarian Intervention: Should We Try to Save Strangers?

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780190202903
eISBN:
9780190202934
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190202903.003.0011
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy, Political Philosophy

The success condition for intervention is part of the standard theory of just war. However, in both theory and practice, few people take the condition sufficiently seriously. The success condition ... More


Experience and the Arrow

Alastair Wilson (ed.)

in Chance and Temporal Asymmetry

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199673421
eISBN:
9780191782534
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199673421.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

This chapter is a review of the role of probability in contemporary physics and the origin of probabilistic time asymmetry, beginning with the pre-quantum case (both stochastic mechanics and ... More


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