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Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered. One reason for falling short is that social science methods have depended excessively on regression and other statistical approaches, ... More


Example of Model Building: Electoral Volatility

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on ... More


Critical Distance: Stabilising Evidential Claims in Archaeology

ALISON WYLIE

in Evidence, Inference and Enquiry

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
January 2013
ISBN:
9780197264843
eISBN:
9780191754050
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197264843.003.0014
Subject:
Sociology, Methodology and Statistics

This chapter adopts a philosophical perspective on evidential reasoning in archaeology. It argues that strong relativist and scientistic positions in debates within anthropological archaeology are ... More


Writing Bayesian Models

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0010
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter offers a general set of steps for writing models to assist the researcher in formulating their own approach to the Bayesian model. The crucial skill of specifying models is often ... More


Problems

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0011
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter provides a set of structured problems to hone the reader's skills in model building. Each problem requires the reader to draw a Bayesian network and write the posterior and joint ... More


Solutions

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0012
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter provides solutions to the problems presented in the preceding chapter. It presents the diagrams for each problem as well as some explanations on how the solutions are arrived at. As has ... More


16 Building nonlinear models

Timo Teräsvirta, Dag Tjøstheim, and W. J. Granger

in Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
May 2011
ISBN:
9780199587148
eISBN:
9780191595387
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199587148.003.0016
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

The topic of this chapter is nonlinear model building. Building non‐parametric models is considered first, followed by building various types of parametric nonlinear models. The latter include smooth ... More


Periodic models for trending data

Philip Hans Franses and Richard Paap

in Periodic Time Series Models

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
August 2004
ISBN:
9780199242023
eISBN:
9780191601286
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/019924202X.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

In Chapter 4 we address the issue of how to incorporate descriptions of trends in periodic models. It is well known that the trend in many economic time series may be characterized by a so-called ... More


The Economic Geography of Cyberspace

Bruce Rogers

in The Internet Trap

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
May 2019
ISBN:
9780691159263
eISBN:
9780691184074
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159263.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Political Economy

This chapter is about building simple economic models of online content production. The style of these models owes much to the so-called “increasing returns revolution” that began in the industrial ... More


The Beginnings of a Generalized Model of Expression

Mark Tatham and Katherine Morton

in Expression in Speech: Analysis and Synthesis

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199250677
eISBN:
9780191719462
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199250677.003.0014
Subject:
Linguistics, Phonetics / Phonology

This chapter defines expressive speech as used in this book. The concept of a composite acoustic waveform is presented, consisting of two components: the basic message and expression. The speaker ... More


8 Models of conditional heteroskedasticity

Timo Teräsvirta, Dag Tjøstheim, and W. J. Granger

in Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
May 2011
ISBN:
9780199587148
eISBN:
9780191595387
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199587148.003.0008
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter considers modelling conditional heteroskedasticity and begins with the well known autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model. Its basic extension to the generalized ... More


Richard Cantillon: Macroeconomic Modelling

Antoin E. Murphy

in The Genesis of Macroeconomics: New Ideas from Sir William Petty to Henry Thornton

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
May 2009
ISBN:
9780199543229
eISBN:
9780191715709
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199543229.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic History, History of Economic Thought

This chapter discusses Richard Cantillon's background and contributions to macroeconomics. The Essai sur la nature du commerce en général is Cantillon's only known work. The Essai is remarkable on ... More


The Importance of Time and Place

John Hatcher and Mark Bailey

in Modelling the Middle Ages: The History and Theory of England's Economic Development

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780199244119
eISBN:
9780191697333
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199244119.003.0005
Subject:
History, European Medieval History, Economic History

This chapter looks at the generic weaknesses of the models that have been developed to describe and explain the history of the medieval economy. It explores these failings from three different ... More


Engaging Stakeholders in Mapping and Modeling Complex Systems Structure to Inform Population Health Research and Action

Kristen Hassmiller Lich and Jill Kuhlberg

in Complex Systems and Population Health

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
July 2020
ISBN:
9780190880743
eISBN:
9780190880774
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190880743.003.0009
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

Systems science methods are designed to study “wholes” and to support decision-making in the context of complexity. While these methods are powerful in the hands of researchers, they can be ... More


Analysis of Case-Control Data

Gayane Yenokyan

in The Case-Control Method: Design and Applications

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
September 2009
ISBN:
9780195187113
eISBN:
9780199864898
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195187113.003.0006
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

Following a presentation of the main steps in the analysis of case-control data starting with editing and cleaning data and selecting continuous predictors, this chapter discusses some of the ... More


Reliability without Truth

in Science in the Age of Computer Simulation

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
March 2013
ISBN:
9780226902029
eISBN:
9780226902050
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226902050.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

This chapter examines the source of credibility of computer simulation models. It suggests that the practice of using fictions in building credible simulations is worthy of closer scrutiny by ... More


Nested Nonlinear Regression Models

Russell Cheng

in Non-Standard Parametric Statistical Inference

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
September 2017
ISBN:
9780198505044
eISBN:
9780191746390
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198505044.003.0015
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

Stepwise fitting of nonlinear nested regression models is considered in this chapter. The forward stepwise method of linear model building is used as far as possible. With linear models this is ... More


Modeling and Theories

Amos Golan

in Foundations of Info-Metrics: Modeling, Inference, and Imperfect Information

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
November 2017
ISBN:
9780199349524
eISBN:
9780199349555
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780199349524.003.0010
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

In this chapter I concentrate on model and theory building, including model-based hypotheses, based on limited information. I show that the info-metrics framework provides a coherent perspective that ... More


Unreal Projects: Using Immersive Visualization to Learn About Distant and Historical Locales

Gabriela Campagnol, Stephen Caffey, Mark J. Clayton, Kevin Glowacki, Nancy Klein, Julian Kang, and Geoffrey Booth

in Digital Cities: Between History and Archaeology

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
March 2020
ISBN:
9780190498900
eISBN:
9780190498924
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190498900.003.0014
Subject:
Classical Studies, Asian and Middle Eastern History: BCE to 500CE

The technology of immersive visualization has progressed to where it can be employed to deliver experiences of environments that are otherwise difficult or impossible to encounter today. The chapter ... More


Semantics as Model-Based Science

Seth Yalcin

in The Science of Meaning: Essays on the Metatheory of Natural Language Semantics

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
August 2018
ISBN:
9780198739548
eISBN:
9780191864100
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198739548.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language, Philosophy of Mind

This chapter critiques a number of standard ways of understanding the role of the metalanguage in a semantic theory for natural language, including the idea that disquotation plays a nontrivial role ... More


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