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Theories of Intentions and the Problem of Attention

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0002
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter outlines the theoretical foundations of the selective attention thesis and three competing ones: the capabilities, strategic military doctrine, and behavior theses. It divides perceived ... More


Indicators of Soviet Intentions and the End of the Cold War, 1985–88

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0009
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by the Reagan administration to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union between 1985 and 1988. Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency in 1981 after an ... More


The US Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Soviet Intentions: The End of the Cold War

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0011
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. intelligence organizations to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union. Drawing on National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) produced on the Soviet ... More


The US Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Soviet Intentions: The Collapse of Détente

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. intelligence organizations to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union. Drawing on National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) produced on the Soviet ... More


Indicators of Nazi Germany’s Intentions and the Coming of World War I, 1934–39

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0003
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter focuses on British assessments of Nazi Germany’s intentions during the interwar period (1934–1939). It outlines the predictions generated by each of the four explanations about perceived ... More


The Carter Era and the Collapse of Détente, 1977–80

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter discusses the relevant predictions of the alternative theses about how states should assess intentions by analyzing the case of the Carter administration during the period 1977–1980. ... More


US Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Soviet Intentions: The End of the Cold War

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0010
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. President Jimmy Carter and two key decision makers in his administration, National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus ... More


British Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Nazi Germany’s Intentions

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the evolution of the views held by Britain’s key decision makers, including Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden and Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, about Nazi Germany’s ... More


US Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Soviet Intentions: The Collapse of Détente

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0007
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. President Jimmy Carter and two key decision makers in his administration, National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus ... More


The British Army of the Rhine, Middle East Land Forces, and Conventional Deterrence: 1948 to 1956

David French

in Army, Empire, and Cold War: The British Army and Military Policy, 1945-1971

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199548231
eISBN:
9780191739224
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199548231.003.0005
Subject:
History, British and Irish Modern History, Military History

This chapter examines how the army prepared to fight high intensity conventional operations against Soviet forces in Europe or the Middle East. It explores the development of its war‐fighting ... More


Fatal Assumptions: Military Doctrine

Frank L. Smith

in American Biodefense: How Dangerous Ideas about Biological Weapons Shape National Security

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2016
ISBN:
9780801452710
eISBN:
9780801455162
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Cornell University Press
DOI:
10.7591/cornell/9780801452710.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Security Studies

This chapter reveals how military doctrine has assumed that biological attacks are like chemical attacks and thus detectable in advance. The resulting stereotypes caused the military to likewise ... More


Summary and Implications

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0012
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter summarizes the book's empirical findings and explains their practical policy implications as well as their significance for international relations theory. The selective attention thesis ... More


Introduction

Patricia L. Sullivan

in Who Wins?: Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
September 2012
ISBN:
9780199878338
eISBN:
9780199950294
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.003.0001
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter first sets out the purpose of the book, which is to present a widely generalizable theory of armed conflict outcomes based on a unique integration of insights from deductive models of ... More


Introduction

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159157
eISBN:
9781400850419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.003.0001
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This book explores the question of how policy makers gauge their adversaries’ intentions and the implications of such intentions assessment for international relations and world affairs. It advances ... More


Strength and Resolve in the Armed Conflicts We Observe

Patricia L. Sullivan

in Who Wins?: Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
September 2012
ISBN:
9780199878338
eISBN:
9780199950294
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.003.0002
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter develops the first part of a broadly generalizable theory about the utility of organized violence as a policy instrument. The theory incorporates insights from both strategic selection ... More


Moscow Calls Off the Arms Race

Beth A. Fischer

in The Myth of Triumphalism: Rethinking President Reagan's Cold War Legacy

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
May 2020
ISBN:
9780813178172
eISBN:
9780813178189
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University Press of Kentucky
DOI:
10.5810/kentucky/9780813178172.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

Told from the Kremlin’s perspective, this chapter debunks the myth that Reagan’s military buildup—and SDI in particular—compelled the Soviets to agree to arms reductions and then to collapse. In ... More


Doctrine and Stability Operations

Jennifer Morrison Taw

in Mission Revolution: The U.S. Military and Stability Operations

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231153256
eISBN:
9780231526821
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231153256.003.0002
Subject:
Political Science, Security Studies

This chapter examines the development of military doctrine on stability operations. The introduction of the 1935 Marine Corps manual Small Wars Operations, which detailed stability operations from ... More


A Theory of Alliance Treaty Negotiation Outcomes

Paul Poast

in Arguing about Alliances: The Art of Agreement in Military-Pact Negotiations

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
May 2020
ISBN:
9781501740244
eISBN:
9781501740251
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Cornell University Press
DOI:
10.7591/cornell/9781501740244.003.0002
Subject:
Political Science, International Relations and Politics

This chapter discusses the book's argument that joint war planning provides a useful conceptual framework for explaining agreement and nonagreement in alliance treaty negotiations. Drawing on ... More


The Pre-War Army and the British Expeditionary Force, 1940

David French

in Raising Churchill’s Army: The British Army and the War against Germany 1919-1945

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780199246304
eISBN:
9780191697562
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199246304.003.0005
Subject:
History, British and Irish Modern History, Military History

This chapter examines the pre-war army and the British Expeditionary Force's (BEF) military campaign in France and Flanders against the Germans in 1940. This campaign showed that the British were ... More


Transforming the Discourse of Civil-Military Interaction in Humanitarian Environments

Vandra Harris

in Rethinking Humanitarian Intervention in the 21st Century

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
May 2020
ISBN:
9781474423816
eISBN:
9781474435314
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:
10.3366/edinburgh/9781474423816.003.0013
Subject:
Political Science, Conflict Politics and Policy

In offering insight to the limits and considerations needed when undertaking an intervention, Vandra Harris in Chapter Twelve: Who is the Force Multiplier? Transient Military Insertion and Enduring ... More


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