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Indicators of Nazi Germany’s Intentions and the Coming of World War I, 1934–39

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

This chapter focuses on British assessments of Nazi Germany’s intentions during the interwar period (1934–1939). It outlines the predictions generated by each of the four explanations about perceived ... More

This chapter focuses on British assessments of Nazi Germany’s intentions during the interwar period (1934–1939). It outlines the predictions generated by each of the four explanations about perceived intentions and examines changes in German military capabilities, doctrine, and actions during this period. The chapter first considers the hypothetical arguments of the selective attention thesis and highlights its predictions for this case, focusing on the vividness hypothesis, the subjective credibility hypothesis, and the organizational expertise hypothesis. It then derives predictions for each of the competing theses, namely: capabilities thesis, strategic military doctrine thesis, and behavior thesis. The findings suggest that Britain’s perceptions of Germany from 1934 to 1939 were shaped by costly actions that had been undertaken by the latter well before Adolf Hitler rose to power in January 1933.Less

Indicators of Soviet Intentions and the End of the Cold War, 1985–88

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

This chapter examines the indicators used by the Reagan administration to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union between 1985 and 1988. Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency in 1981 after an ... More

This chapter examines the indicators used by the Reagan administration to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union between 1985 and 1988. Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency in 1981 after an election campaign that expressed alarm over a “window of vulnerability” that endangered U.S. national security. Reagan's national security strategy featured schemes such as the Strategic Defense Initiative, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The chapter considers U.S. perceptions of Soviet military capabilities, military doctrine, and behavior during the period based on predictions derived from the selective attention thesis, capabilities thesis, strategic military doctrine thesis, and behavior thesis. It also explores how, when, and to what extent U.S. perceptions of Soviet intentions changed in order to elucidate the broader changes that eventually led to the end of the Cold War.Less

The Iron Wall: China's Conventional Military Capabilities

Rosemary Foot

in The Practice of Power: US Relations with China since 1949

This is the second of four chapters focusing on America’s perceptions of China’s capabilities, and dwelling on the correspondence between those perceptions and the projected consequences. It looks at ... More

This is the second of four chapters focusing on America’s perceptions of China’s capabilities, and dwelling on the correspondence between those perceptions and the projected consequences. It looks at American perceptions of China’s capabilities as a military power, discussing them in relation to the successive conflicts in which China was involved: the Korean war, the two Taiwan Straits crises, the Sino-Indian and Sino-Soviet border conflicts, the Vietnam war and the Sino-Vietnamese fighting in 1979. The discussion marks the transition from the Truman and Eisenhower administration appraisals of China’s conventional strength as a ‘candidate great power’ (in military terms), to the perceptions in the 1960s and throughout the 1970s, that China had not developed advanced conventional forces, and had been sufficiently weakened through its domestic and foreign policies eventually to require it to embark on a domestic modernization programme that led to the reduction and then ending of its support for the national liberation struggles it had previously championed. Moreover, it needed American military protection to help it deal with Soviet encirclement. This evolution in the understanding of China’s needs and capacities helped ease the path to the rapprochement and then normalization of relations between these two former military opponents, much as America’s own defeat in Vietnam made it easier for Mao to turn to Washington.Less

The British Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Nazi Germany’s Intentions

Keren Yarhi-Milo

in Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations

This chapter examines the evolution in the stated beliefs of Britain’s intelligence organizations about the nature and scope of Nazi Germany’s foreign policy plans along with its perceptions of the ... More

This chapter examines the evolution in the stated beliefs of Britain’s intelligence organizations about the nature and scope of Nazi Germany’s foreign policy plans along with its perceptions of the Germans’ willingness to wield their military capabilities. It evaluates how well the predictions of the selective attention thesis and the competing theses fit the evolution in perceived intentions. It shows that the evolution of the British intelligence community’s collective intentions assessments is most consistent with the predictions of the capabilities thesis and organizational expertise hypothesis. The evidence is inconclusive as to the predictions of the past and current actions hypotheses of the behavior thesis.Less

Interstate Dispute Outcomes, 1919–2001

Patricia L. Sullivan

in Who Wins?: Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict

The preceding chapter presented a set of testable hypotheses derived from the war aims model and several rival theories of armed conflict outcomes. This chapter conducts large-n empirical tests of ... More

The preceding chapter presented a set of testable hypotheses derived from the war aims model and several rival theories of armed conflict outcomes. This chapter conducts large-n empirical tests of some of these predictions. In a series of statistical analyses, it explores the effects of relative military capabilities, the balance of interests, and the nature of states' war aims on the escalation and outcome of disputes between states. To evaluate hypotheses about the probability of conflict escalation, it examines all dispute dyads in the Correlates of War Militarized Interstate Disputes dataset between 1919 and 2001. It tests hypotheses about the outcomes of conflicts that have escalated to mutual hostilities on those disputes in which both sides use military force and the fighting lasts for more than one day.Less

Understanding the Product: North Korea’s Military Capabilities

Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.

in North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability

North Korea’s nuclear weaponization program and its ballistic missile programs have developed compelling capabilities that can potentially threaten all the Middle East, Africa, and Europe when ... More

North Korea’s nuclear weaponization program and its ballistic missile programs have developed compelling capabilities that can potentially threaten all the Middle East, Africa, and Europe when proliferated (and many of these systems have already been proliferated). North Korea’s advances in maritime capabilities are important as well, including a new submarine with long-range capabilities and a developing capability to fire a ballistic missile. The North’s ground forces have not been idle, as high training levels and important initiatives in training have added to potential capabilities, including artillery and rocket systems that could create havoc in ongoing conventional conflicts in both the Middle East and Africa.Less

Conclusion

Patricia L. Sullivan

in Who Wins?: Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict

This concluding chapter discusses the theoretical and policy implications of the book's argument and empirical results. The theory of armed conflict outcomes developed attempts to unify previous ... More

This concluding chapter discusses the theoretical and policy implications of the book's argument and empirical results. The theory of armed conflict outcomes developed attempts to unify previous theoretical work on the effects of military capability, resolve, and strategic selection on violent conflict outcomes. The policy implications of this approach are not as straightforward or prescriptive as decision-makers might like them to be. Nevertheless, it is hoped that recognizing how the utility of military force is dependent on the nature of one's political objectives will help leaders avoid steering their countries into wars that are unlikely to achieve their aims.Less

Military Strength and the Use of Force

in The Foreign Policy Disconnect: What Americans Want from Our Leaders but Don't Get

This chapter examines the circumstances under which Americans favor or oppose the use of military force, with special attention to the roles of multilateral cooperation and of international ... More

This chapter examines the circumstances under which Americans favor or oppose the use of military force, with special attention to the roles of multilateral cooperation and of international organizations like the United Nations and NATO. It also considers policy preferences concerning military capabilities, including defense spending and bases abroad.Less

Responses of U.S. Allies

Jakub J. Grygiel and A. Wess Mitchell

in The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power

This chapter examines how U.S. allies are responding to the combination of probes and America's deprioritization of alliances by reconsidering their “menu cards” of options for surviving geopolitical ... More

This chapter examines how U.S. allies are responding to the combination of probes and America's deprioritization of alliances by reconsidering their “menu cards” of options for surviving geopolitical change. Using historical examples such as Central and Eastern European states during the interwar period of the 1930s, it argues that U.S. allies, to an extent largely overlooked in Washington, are now considering a wide range of coping mechanisms to prepare for the possibility of U.S. retrenchment and examine the effects that their strategic choices could have over time. From East Asia to the Middle East and Eastern Europe, American allies are hurriedly altering their diplomatic postures, military capabilities, and national strategic outlook in response to rapidly changing security environments and their assessment of American behavior.Less

Evolution of Japan's Space Policy

in In Defense of Japan: From the Market to the Military in Space Policy

This chapter examines the actual evolution of Japan's space policy, which has brought efforts to militarize space technologies over the course of the 2000s into sharp relief, and traces relevant ... More

This chapter examines the actual evolution of Japan's space policy, which has brought efforts to militarize space technologies over the course of the 2000s into sharp relief, and traces relevant developments, focusing on government-centered changes and industry-related demands. It explains that although Japan was committed to the peaceful development of space activities in the 1960s, the ideal of keeping space development away from the development of dual-use and military technologies turned out to be an impossible dream as Nippon Keidanren gathered momentum for legal change. The chapter highlights the importance of the economic interests of corporations in the direction of Japan's military capabilities.Less

Restructuring Global Security for the Twenty-First Century*

Mary Kaldor

in The Quest for Security: Protection Without Protectionism and the Challenge of Global Governance

This chapter makes the case for a profound restructuring in the global security sector away from a preoccupation with national and bloc security, largely based on conventional military forces, toward ... More

This chapter makes the case for a profound restructuring in the global security sector away from a preoccupation with national and bloc security, largely based on conventional military forces, toward a strengthened global security system with greatly enhanced integrated civilian-military capabilities aimed at addressing the everyday insecurities experienced in the world today. The term “human security” is used to describe the goals and methods of such a new global security system. The term provides a way of framing security that mobilizes popular support and that establishes a cohesive concept that could help to bring together diverse and complex multilateral institutions. In particular, “human security” offers a clear alternative to the War on Terror as an organizing narrative for global security. The chapter starts by describing some of the key characteristics of contemporary forms of violence. It then outlines what a human security approach would involve. The final section makes some recommendations for the strategy in Afghanistan, which could make or break a human security approach.Less

The Role and Impact on NATO

Ryan C. Hendrickson

in Political Rationale and International Consequences of the War in Libya

OUP, the NATO’s strikes in Libya, was unique in the alliance’s history of military interventions. This mission, which entailed some 25,000 sorties, considerably expanded NATO’s perceived role in ... More

OUP, the NATO’s strikes in Libya, was unique in the alliance’s history of military interventions. This mission, which entailed some 25,000 sorties, considerably expanded NATO’s perceived role in shaping global security and protecting human rights. The chapter argues that though NATO exhibited tremendous flexibility in its institutional structures and cooperated very well with a number of its partners in this mission, the alliance also suffered due to intra-alliance tensions, and serious military and intelligence capability differences among the allies. NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as well as US secretary of defense Robert Gates were unable to resolve these other major differences, which highlighted the limitations of burden sharing across NATO’s membership.Less

Toward the Enhancement of Non-Traditional Security in North Korea

Brendan Howe

in Non-Traditional Security Issues in North Korea

This concluding chapter challenges the traditional belief that diplomats should ignore the internal affairs of states in order to preserve international stability and posits that the lack of internal ... More

This concluding chapter challenges the traditional belief that diplomats should ignore the internal affairs of states in order to preserve international stability and posits that the lack of internal justice may actually increase international disorder. Regarding states as unitary rational actors—with the capacity to coerce the behavior of the other actors—misses alternative explanations for the behavior of statesmen, leads to the adoption of self-fulfilling worst-case-scenario planning, is inherently confrontational, and contributes to the likelihood of the emergence of a traditional security dilemma whereby an increase in one state’s military capabilities is automatically considered a threat to the security of its neighbors.Less

Determinants of Success: Analysis of Peace Initiatives in South-Central Somalia

Galymzhan Kirbassov

in War and Peace in Somalia: National Grievances, Local Conflict and Al-Shabaab

This chapter analyzes the factors that determine the success of peace initiatives in Somalia. First, the intensity of conflict before the peace agreement is signed negatively affects the duration of ... More

This chapter analyzes the factors that determine the success of peace initiatives in Somalia. First, the intensity of conflict before the peace agreement is signed negatively affects the duration of peace. The higher the rate of fatalities during a conflict, the higher the likelihood that the peace agreement that followed it will fail. Second, military capabilities of the disputing clans determine if the peace agreement will succeed in sustaining. Imbalance of military capability reduces the likely duration of peace because the stronger clan may have incentives to renege on the peace accord. Third, third-party enforcement of peace accords by a credible and capable actor is a crucial element of sustainable peace. The enforcer monitors the implementation of the peace agreement and can credibly threaten to punish non-compliance.Less