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Macroeconometric modelling: Alternative approaches

Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yongcheol Shin

in Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
September 2006
ISBN:
9780199296859
eISBN:
9780191603853
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199296855.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter describes some alternative approaches to macroeconometric modelling, focusing on the long-run characteristics of macroeconomic models and the consensus that has developed surrounding ... More


Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach

Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yongcheol Shin

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
September 2006
ISBN:
9780199296859
eISBN:
9780191603853
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199296855.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in macroeconometric modelling and describes the ‘long-run structural modelling approach’ applied to the modelling of national ... More


A long-run structural model of the UK

Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yongcheol Shin

in Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
September 2006
ISBN:
9780199296859
eISBN:
9780191603853
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199296855.003.0009
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter describes the empirical work underlying the construction of the UK model, discusses the results obtained from testing its long-run properties, and compares the model with benchmark ... More


Comparing Macroeconomic Model Forecasts under Common Assumptions

Stephen K. McNees

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

Economic forecasts differ because forecasters use different macroeconomic models. However, even if everyone used the same model, all forecasts would not be identical. Most forecasts reflect a complex ... More


Economic Models

John Kay

in The Business of Economics

Published in print:
1996
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198292227
eISBN:
9780191596520
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198292228.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

Building bigger and more elaborate models will neither help us arrive at more realistic descriptions of the world nor help make our predictions more accurate. Mathematical models are just a more ... More


Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics

Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps (eds)

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691155234
eISBN:
9781400846450
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691155234.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark “Phelps microfoundations volume,” Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation ... More


The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis

Filippo di Mauro and M. Hashem Pesaran (eds)

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780199670086
eISBN:
9780191749469
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The recent crisis has shown yet again how the world economies are globally interlinked, via a complex net of transmission channels. When it comes, however, to build econometric frameworks aimed at ... More


The Failures of Forecasting

John Kay

in The Business of Economics

Published in print:
1996
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198292227
eISBN:
9780191596520
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198292228.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

Using data on previous forecasts, this widely influential 1995 FT article criticizes the reliability and usefulness of economic forecasts. Contrary to the widespread belief that economists always ... More


Learning, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Hans Dewachter and Marco Lyrio

in Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226092119
eISBN:
9780226092126
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226092126.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

This chapter builds and estimates a macroeconomic model that includes learning. Learning was introduced in the model by assuming that agents do not believe in time-invariant inflation targets nor in ... More


Short-Run Models of Contrasting Natural Resource Endowments

S. Mansoob. Murshed

in Resource Abundance and Economic Development

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
April 2005
ISBN:
9780199275786
eISBN:
9780191602160
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199275785.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

This chapter examines the links between natural resources, economic growth, and economic policy using a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of a small open economy endowed with a natural ... More


A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models

Ray C. Fair and Lewis S. Alexander

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter compares the predictive accuracy of the Michigan and Fair econometric models using the method developed in Ray Fair. These models are compared to each other and to an eighth-order ... More


Beyond a formal approach?: Seeking adequate policy analysis in Japan

Sukehiro Hosono

in Policy analysis in Japan

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
September 2015
ISBN:
9781847429841
eISBN:
9781447311515
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Policy Press
DOI:
10.1332/policypress/9781847429841.003.0002
Subject:
Political Science, Public Policy

Formal policy analysis including cost-benefit analysis and quantitative policy equation system such as macroeconomic simulation model can be expected to be a strong and high performing analytical ... More


Uses and Abuses of Economics

John Kay

in The Business of Economics

Published in print:
1996
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198292227
eISBN:
9780191596520
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198292228.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

The first part of this chapter explains why economics has enjoyed more success in answering microeconomic questions rather than macroeconomic ones. The second part responds to a number of attacks on ... More


The basic GVAR DdPS model

Filippo di Mauro and L. Vanessa Smith

in The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780199670086
eISBN:
9780191749469
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

This chapter provides a brief overview of the GVAR modelling framework and presents the basic GVAR model of Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007, DdPS). The DdPS GVAR model is estimated for 26 ... More


Introduction: An overview of the GVAR approach and the handbook

Filippo di Mauro and M. Hashem Pesaran

in The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780199670086
eISBN:
9780191749469
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.003.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The world economies are tightly interlinked, via a complex net of transmission channels, which are however hard to model empirically. The GVAR, a VAR based model of the global economy, offers a ... More


Conclusion

Filippo di Mauro and M. Hashem Pesaran

in The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780199670086
eISBN:
9780191749469
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.003.0018
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

Some of the main findings of the book include: Cross-border financial spill-overs are particularly important, not only during the 2007-09 crises but more generally, in transmitting financial and real ... More


Market Socialism or Capitalism?: The Transnational Critique of Neoclassical Economics and the Transitions of 1989

in Markets in the Name of Socialism: The Left-Wing Origins of Neoliberalism

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
June 2013
ISBN:
9780804775663
eISBN:
9780804778961
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Stanford University Press
DOI:
10.11126/stanford/9780804775663.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic History

This chapter focuses on the period from the 1970s to 1989, a time when neoclassical economists around the world felt that something was wrong with their field and began to criticize themselves ... More


The Great Inflation: Did the Shadow Know Better?

William Poole, Robert H. Rasche, and David C. Wheelock

in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
September 2013
ISBN:
9780226066950
eISBN:
9780226043555
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226043555.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC) was established in 1973 in response to rising inflation in the United States and the apparent failure of either the Nixon administration or the Federal Reserve ... More


Economics of Climate Change

Bradly J. Condon and Tapen Sinha

in The Role of Climate Change in Global Economic Governance

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
September 2013
ISBN:
9780199654550
eISBN:
9780191747953
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199654550.003.0006
Subject:
Law, Environmental and Energy Law, Public International Law

This chapter applies the concepts of environmental economics to the problem of climate change. It highlights the fact that using unilateral measures to address climate change represent only a partial ... More


Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling

Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy (eds)

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
January 2015
ISBN:
9780226077734
eISBN:
9780226092645
Item type:
book
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226092645.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

In the fall of 2010 and the spring of 2011, the NBER held two conferences that brought together leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial market experts to discuss ideas on ... More


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