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Tracking Truth: Knowledge, Evidence, and Science

Sherrilyn Roush

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
February 2006
ISBN:
9780199274734
eISBN:
9780191603228
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199274738.001.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This book develops and defends a new externalist, reliabilist theory of knowledge and evidence, and develops a new view about scientific realism. Knowledge is viewed as a tracking theory that has a ... More


Likelihoods and likelihood ratios

Thomas D. Wickens

in Elementary Signal Detection Theory

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
April 2010
ISBN:
9780195092509
eISBN:
9780199893812
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195092509.003.0009
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Likelihoods — the probabilities treated as a function of their parameters — are a key concept in statistical decision theory. When applied to signal detection, they give a general method for ... More


Likelihood Ratios as a Measure of the Diagnostic Usefulness of Excretory Urogram Information

Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss

in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
January 2009
ISBN:
9780195322989
eISBN:
9780199869206
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0024
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter discusses a method for measuring the diagnostic usefulness of the information from a radiologic examination (excretory urography). The log likelihood ratio (LLR) method requires ... More


What is Evidence? Discrimination, Indication, and Leverage

Sherrilyn Roush

in Tracking Truth: Knowledge, Evidence, and Science

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
February 2006
ISBN:
9780199274734
eISBN:
9780191603228
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199274738.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter explains the motivations behind a tracking view of what evidence is, and formulates such a view in terms of conditional probability. This view is a likelihood ratio confirmation theory, ... More


Why Likelihood?

Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober

in The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226789552
eISBN:
9780226789583
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226789583.003.0006
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

The likelihood principle has been defended on Bayesian grounds, with proponents insisting that it coincides with and systematizes intuitive judgments about example problems, and that it generalizes ... More


Presenting Probabilities in Court

MIKE REDMAYNE

in Expert Evidence and Criminal Justice

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
January 2010
ISBN:
9780198267805
eISBN:
9780191714856
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198267805.003.0004
Subject:
Law, Criminal Law and Criminology

This chapter begins by discussing several problems in presenting the probabilities in court. It then makes an analysis of how probabilities are evaluated in court through empirical research. It also ... More


The Principal–Agent Problem

James Bergin

in Microeconomic Theory: A Concise Course

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780199280292
eISBN:
9780191602498
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199280290.003.0013
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

The principal-agent problem is considered. The full information case is taken as the benchmark and efficient risk allocation with a risk averse principal and risk averse agent is considered, again ... More


Hypothesis Testing for the Long‐Run Coefficients β

Søren Johansen

in Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models

Published in print:
1995
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198774501
eISBN:
9780191596476
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198774508.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

A number of models defined by linear restrictions on the cointegrating vectors are solved by reduced rank regression or slight modifications of it. We calculate the degrees of freedom for likelihood ... More


Testing and Evaluation

David F. Hendry

in Dynamic Econometrics

Published in print:
1995
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198283164
eISBN:
9780191596384
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198283164.003.0013
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

The non‐central chi‐squared distribution frequently results when hypothesis testing, so the large‐sample properties of such tests are analysed for sequences of local alternatives. Test power depends ... More


Evidence Functions and the Optimality of the Law of Likelihood

Subhash R. Lele

in The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226789552
eISBN:
9780226789583
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226789583.003.0007
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter formulates a class of functions, called evidence functions, which may be used to characterize the strength of evidence for one hypothesis over a competing hypothesis. It shows that the ... More


Preferences, Risk, and Stochastic Dominance

James Bergin

in Microeconomic Theory: A Concise Course

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780199280292
eISBN:
9780191602498
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199280290.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

Focuses on preferences, attitude to risk and the ranking of risky returns. The state space model is discussed and related to risk aversion. First, second, and higher order stochastic dominance ... More


Parametric estimation and inference

M. D. Edge

in Statistical Thinking from Scratch: A Primer for Scientists

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
October 2019
ISBN:
9780198827627
eISBN:
9780191866463
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198827627.003.0011
Subject:
Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies

If it is reasonable to assume that the data are generated by a fully parametric model, then maximum-likelihood approaches to estimation and inference have many appealing properties. ... More


Models of nucleotide substitution

Ziheng Yang

in Molecular Evolution: A Statistical Approach

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780199602605
eISBN:
9780191782251
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199602605.003.0001
Subject:
Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies, Evolutionary Biology / Genetics

This chapter discusses Markov chain models of nucleotide substitution, such as JC69, K80, HKY85 and the general time-reversible (GTR) model, and their use in the calculation of the distance between ... More


Maximum likelihood methods

Ziheng Yang

in Molecular Evolution: A Statistical Approach

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780199602605
eISBN:
9780191782251
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199602605.003.0004
Subject:
Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies, Evolutionary Biology / Genetics

This chapter describes the pruning algorithm for calculating the likelihood on a tree, as well as extensions under complex substitution models, including the gamma and covarion models of rate ... More


Model Identification from Many Candidates

Mark L. Taper

in The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226789552
eISBN:
9780226789583
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226789583.003.0015
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

Model identification is a necessary component of modern science. Model misspecification is a major, if not the dominant, source of error in the quantification of most scientific evidence. Hypothesis ... More


Maximum Likelihood Estimation

M. Hashem Pesaran

in Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
March 2016
ISBN:
9780198736912
eISBN:
9780191800504
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198736912.003.0009
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

One important tool of estimation and hypothesis testing in econometrics is maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and the various testing procedures associated with it, namely, the likelihood ratio (LR), ... More


Likelihood and model selection

Shane A. Richards

in Ecological Statistics: Contemporary theory and application

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
April 2015
ISBN:
9780199672547
eISBN:
9780191796487
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199672547.003.0004
Subject:
Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies, Ecology

Ecologists study systems in which the biological patterns of interest are usually the result of complex webs of interactions. In such cases, many hypotheses may be proposed that might account for the ... More


Scientific Reasoning

Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, and Maggie E. Toplak

in The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780262034845
eISBN:
9780262336819
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034845.003.0006
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

In this chapter, the Scientific Reasoning subtest is described. The reason for each of the task-types chosen for this subtest is discussed. The skills tapped by this subtest include: covariation ... More


Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity Using Twofold Unidentified Models under the Null and Hexic Expansions

Jin Seo Cho, Isao Ishida, and Halbert White

in Essays in Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780199679959
eISBN:
9780191760136
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679959.003.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

We revisit the twofold identification problem discussed by Cho, Ishida, and White (2011), which arises when testing for neglected nonlinearity by artificial neural networks. We do not use the ... More


Standard Asymptotic Theory

Russell Cheng

in Non-Standard Parametric Statistical Inference

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
September 2017
ISBN:
9780198505044
eISBN:
9780191746390
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198505044.003.0003
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

This book relies on maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of parameters. Asymptotic theory assumes regularity conditions hold when the ML estimator is consistent. Typically an additional third ... More


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