Lee J. Alston, Marcus André Melo, Bernardo Mueller, and Carlos Pereira
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- January 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780691162911
- eISBN:
- 9781400880942
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691162911.003.0007
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental
This chapter fleshes out an inductive framework for understanding stasis and critical transitions. The framework has been developed with a lens on Brazil, but to illustrate its wider applicability, ...
More
This chapter fleshes out an inductive framework for understanding stasis and critical transitions. The framework has been developed with a lens on Brazil, but to illustrate its wider applicability, this chapter applies the framework very generally to understand the critical transitions in Argentina from the early twentieth century to 2014. The key elements in the framework are beliefs and leadership, which interact synergistically and vary across countries. Because beliefs and leadership cannot be measured rigorously and classified, the use of the framework necessarily involves subjectivity and interpretation. With more case studies applying this framework, more general lessons on the dynamics among beliefs, power, leadership, institutions, policies, and outcomes that form stasis or development can be constructed.Less
This chapter fleshes out an inductive framework for understanding stasis and critical transitions. The framework has been developed with a lens on Brazil, but to illustrate its wider applicability, this chapter applies the framework very generally to understand the critical transitions in Argentina from the early twentieth century to 2014. The key elements in the framework are beliefs and leadership, which interact synergistically and vary across countries. Because beliefs and leadership cannot be measured rigorously and classified, the use of the framework necessarily involves subjectivity and interpretation. With more case studies applying this framework, more general lessons on the dynamics among beliefs, power, leadership, institutions, policies, and outcomes that form stasis or development can be constructed.
Lee J. Alston, Marcus André Melo, Bernardo Mueller, and Carlos Pereira
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- January 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780691162911
- eISBN:
- 9781400880942
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691162911.003.0008
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental
This chapter offers some conjectures about the future of Brazil, especially in light of recent declarations that the Brazilian miracle has vanished once again. It attempts to reconcile Brazil's ...
More
This chapter offers some conjectures about the future of Brazil, especially in light of recent declarations that the Brazilian miracle has vanished once again. It attempts to reconcile Brazil's current political and economic situation with the more optimistic forecast this volume has set out so far, by using the institutional possibility frontiers (IPF) to interpret this paradox. The IPF illustrates this by showing the trade-offs existing in any country between disorder and dictatorship (authoritarianism) and reveals that a state that has more powers to control disorder also has more for dictatorial abuse. The chapter also returns to the analytical framework already expounded in the previous chapter, and finally predicts Brazil's likelihood for another critical transition to a society more akin to the current developed countries in the world.Less
This chapter offers some conjectures about the future of Brazil, especially in light of recent declarations that the Brazilian miracle has vanished once again. It attempts to reconcile Brazil's current political and economic situation with the more optimistic forecast this volume has set out so far, by using the institutional possibility frontiers (IPF) to interpret this paradox. The IPF illustrates this by showing the trade-offs existing in any country between disorder and dictatorship (authoritarianism) and reveals that a state that has more powers to control disorder also has more for dictatorial abuse. The chapter also returns to the analytical framework already expounded in the previous chapter, and finally predicts Brazil's likelihood for another critical transition to a society more akin to the current developed countries in the world.
