Peter Turchin
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780691180779
- eISBN:
- 9781400889310
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691180779.001.0001
- Subject:
- History, Historiography
Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical ...
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Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics—why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract—this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. The book develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. It then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. The book's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of the book's results suggests that the synthetic approach advocated can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.Less
Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics—why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract—this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. The book develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. It then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. The book's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of the book's results suggests that the synthetic approach advocated can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
Andrew Stewart Skinner
- Published in print:
- 1996
- Published Online:
- October 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780198233343
- eISBN:
- 9780191678974
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198233343.003.0011
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Economic History
Adam Smith endeavoured to link philosophy, history, and economics as part of the grand plan announced in the closing pages of the first edition of The Theory of Moral Sentiments and repeated in the ...
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Adam Smith endeavoured to link philosophy, history, and economics as part of the grand plan announced in the closing pages of the first edition of The Theory of Moral Sentiments and repeated in the advertisement to the sixth and last edition of that work. But when we take the Treatise of Human Nature in conjunction with the Essays, it becomes apparent that the outlines of the model had already been established by David Hume. Hume identified ‘action, pleasure and indolence’ as essential to human happiness but in practice placed most emphasis on the first. This chapter also examines Hume's views on self-interest and the pursuit of gain, self-interest and constraint, historical dynamics and the exchange economy, and international trade. Hume's use of history in his economic writings is also discussed.Less
Adam Smith endeavoured to link philosophy, history, and economics as part of the grand plan announced in the closing pages of the first edition of The Theory of Moral Sentiments and repeated in the advertisement to the sixth and last edition of that work. But when we take the Treatise of Human Nature in conjunction with the Essays, it becomes apparent that the outlines of the model had already been established by David Hume. Hume identified ‘action, pleasure and indolence’ as essential to human happiness but in practice placed most emphasis on the first. This chapter also examines Hume's views on self-interest and the pursuit of gain, self-interest and constraint, historical dynamics and the exchange economy, and international trade. Hume's use of history in his economic writings is also discussed.
Peter Turchin
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780691180779
- eISBN:
- 9781400889310
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691180779.003.0001
- Subject:
- History, Historiography
This chapter provides an introduction to the use of quantitative theories in historical sociology. It first explains why we need a mathematical theory in history before making a case for historical ...
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This chapter provides an introduction to the use of quantitative theories in historical sociology. It first explains why we need a mathematical theory in history before making a case for historical dynamics as a research program, with emphasis on the important role of mathematical models. Using the case of the territorial dynamics of agrarian polities, it proposes a research program for theory building in historical dynamics that involves selecting which of the questions need to be addressed as well as the hierarchical modeling approach and the mathematical framework to be employed. In addition to defining the problem to be addressed, other steps include identifying the primary data set, identifying a set of hypotheses, translating all hypotheses in the list into mathematical models, identifying secondary data, and solving the models using appropriate technology.Less
This chapter provides an introduction to the use of quantitative theories in historical sociology. It first explains why we need a mathematical theory in history before making a case for historical dynamics as a research program, with emphasis on the important role of mathematical models. Using the case of the territorial dynamics of agrarian polities, it proposes a research program for theory building in historical dynamics that involves selecting which of the questions need to be addressed as well as the hierarchical modeling approach and the mathematical framework to be employed. In addition to defining the problem to be addressed, other steps include identifying the primary data set, identifying a set of hypotheses, translating all hypotheses in the list into mathematical models, identifying secondary data, and solving the models using appropriate technology.
Peter Turchin
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780691180779
- eISBN:
- 9781400889310
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691180779.003.0010
- Subject:
- History, Historiography
This concluding chapter summarizes the main developments discussed in the book, beginning with the proposed research program for investigating historical dynamics and how the approach can be used to ...
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This concluding chapter summarizes the main developments discussed in the book, beginning with the proposed research program for investigating historical dynamics and how the approach can be used to study the territorial dynamics of agrarian polities. It then considers asabiya and its impact on metaethnic frontiers; the results of empirical tests on ethnic assimilation; the prediction of demographic-structural theory that population dynamics causes state breakdown; and the theory of geopolitics, applied to test of the effect of a region's positional advantage on the maximum polity size originating from it. The chapter also proposes a combined modeling/empirical approach to investigating history and how the focus of the research program may be expanded beyond the dynamics of agrarian polities (for example, to cases involving nomadic pastoralists, thalassocratic polities such as classical Athens, or hegemonic cycles). Finally, it suggests the term “cliodynamics” (by analogy with cliometrics) as an alternative to “historical dynamics”.Less
This concluding chapter summarizes the main developments discussed in the book, beginning with the proposed research program for investigating historical dynamics and how the approach can be used to study the territorial dynamics of agrarian polities. It then considers asabiya and its impact on metaethnic frontiers; the results of empirical tests on ethnic assimilation; the prediction of demographic-structural theory that population dynamics causes state breakdown; and the theory of geopolitics, applied to test of the effect of a region's positional advantage on the maximum polity size originating from it. The chapter also proposes a combined modeling/empirical approach to investigating history and how the focus of the research program may be expanded beyond the dynamics of agrarian polities (for example, to cases involving nomadic pastoralists, thalassocratic polities such as classical Athens, or hegemonic cycles). Finally, it suggests the term “cliodynamics” (by analogy with cliometrics) as an alternative to “historical dynamics”.
Peter Turchin
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780691180779
- eISBN:
- 9781400889310
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691180779.003.0003
- Subject:
- History, Historiography
This chapter discusses the dynamics underlying collective solidarity, building the theory by inferring group dynamics from interactions between individuals and polity dynamics from interactions ...
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This chapter discusses the dynamics underlying collective solidarity, building the theory by inferring group dynamics from interactions between individuals and polity dynamics from interactions between groups. Groups vary in their capacity for collective action as a result of a complex mix of individual behaviors, such as the ability to detect and punish free-riders. The capacity for collective solidarity, or asabiya, refers to the group capacity for concerted collective action. The chapter first provides an overview of groups in sociology and how human behavior and sociality promote the evolution of solidaristic behaviors before exploring the importance of ethnic groups and ethnicity in collective solidarity. It then considers the link between collective solidarity and historical dynamics, Ibn Khaldun's theory of political cycles, and Lev Gumilev's theory of ethnogenesis. Finally, it examines how collective solidarity relates to modern concepts such as social capital, Emile Durkheim's mechanical and organic solidarity, and individualism and collectivism.Less
This chapter discusses the dynamics underlying collective solidarity, building the theory by inferring group dynamics from interactions between individuals and polity dynamics from interactions between groups. Groups vary in their capacity for collective action as a result of a complex mix of individual behaviors, such as the ability to detect and punish free-riders. The capacity for collective solidarity, or asabiya, refers to the group capacity for concerted collective action. The chapter first provides an overview of groups in sociology and how human behavior and sociality promote the evolution of solidaristic behaviors before exploring the importance of ethnic groups and ethnicity in collective solidarity. It then considers the link between collective solidarity and historical dynamics, Ibn Khaldun's theory of political cycles, and Lev Gumilev's theory of ethnogenesis. Finally, it examines how collective solidarity relates to modern concepts such as social capital, Emile Durkheim's mechanical and organic solidarity, and individualism and collectivism.
J. Rasmus Brandt and Jon W. Iddeng (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- January 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780199696093
- eISBN:
- 9780191745744
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199696093.001.0001
- Subject:
- Classical Studies, Ancient Religions, Archaeology: Classical
Festivals were the heartbeat of Greek and Roman society, its social and political organization, and its institutions. They set the rhythm of the year, as laid down in a calendar, and through them ...
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Festivals were the heartbeat of Greek and Roman society, its social and political organization, and its institutions. They set the rhythm of the year, as laid down in a calendar, and through them divine protection of the public and private spheres was ensured and the populace was joined together in common acts centred on common symbols. The present book contains twelve chapters on Greek and Roman festivals from an interdisciplinary field of Classical scholarship: archaeology, history, history of religions, and philology. The book addresses the key question of what a Greco-Roman festival was, and show that the answer is many-faceted and complex. The very concept of ‘festival’ is examined; the origin, content, practice of different festivals, with their implicit features and historical significance, are discussed. The social, political, and ritual function of ancient festivals is illuminated by examples and theoretical reflections. The book accordingly contributes to a more nuanced and finely delineated picture of the close connections between festivals as religious and social phenomena and processes, and the historical dynamics that shaped them in the times of the Greeks and Romans.Less
Festivals were the heartbeat of Greek and Roman society, its social and political organization, and its institutions. They set the rhythm of the year, as laid down in a calendar, and through them divine protection of the public and private spheres was ensured and the populace was joined together in common acts centred on common symbols. The present book contains twelve chapters on Greek and Roman festivals from an interdisciplinary field of Classical scholarship: archaeology, history, history of religions, and philology. The book addresses the key question of what a Greco-Roman festival was, and show that the answer is many-faceted and complex. The very concept of ‘festival’ is examined; the origin, content, practice of different festivals, with their implicit features and historical significance, are discussed. The social, political, and ritual function of ancient festivals is illuminated by examples and theoretical reflections. The book accordingly contributes to a more nuanced and finely delineated picture of the close connections between festivals as religious and social phenomena and processes, and the historical dynamics that shaped them in the times of the Greeks and Romans.
Peter Turchin
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780691180779
- eISBN:
- 9781400889310
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691180779.003.0006
- Subject:
- History, Historiography
This chapter describes dynamic models of ethnosocial change, referred to as ethnokinetic models, with particular emphasis on ethnic assimilation. It first explains the simplest possible formulation ...
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This chapter describes dynamic models of ethnosocial change, referred to as ethnokinetic models, with particular emphasis on ethnic assimilation. It first explains the simplest possible formulation of the process of ethnokinetics before discussing three basic sets of assumptions about how people switch their ethnic identity (a process that may involve linguistic assimilation, religious conversion, etc.). Three models corresponding to these assumptions are presented: the noninteractive model, the autocatalytic model, and the threshold model. The chapter then considers spatial extensions of all three models and examines which model accounts for the historical dynamics of identity switching. It also analyzes several data sets on religious conversion: conversion to Islam in Iran and Spain, the rise of Christianity in the Roman Empire, and the growth of Mormonism. The results provide the greatest degree of empirical support to the autocatalytic model.Less
This chapter describes dynamic models of ethnosocial change, referred to as ethnokinetic models, with particular emphasis on ethnic assimilation. It first explains the simplest possible formulation of the process of ethnokinetics before discussing three basic sets of assumptions about how people switch their ethnic identity (a process that may involve linguistic assimilation, religious conversion, etc.). Three models corresponding to these assumptions are presented: the noninteractive model, the autocatalytic model, and the threshold model. The chapter then considers spatial extensions of all three models and examines which model accounts for the historical dynamics of identity switching. It also analyzes several data sets on religious conversion: conversion to Islam in Iran and Spain, the rise of Christianity in the Roman Empire, and the growth of Mormonism. The results provide the greatest degree of empirical support to the autocatalytic model.
Peter Turchin
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780691180779
- eISBN:
- 9781400889310
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691180779.003.0009
- Subject:
- History, Historiography
This chapter presents case studies of historical dynamics in two polities: France and Russia in the longue durée (from the origins to 1900 C.E.). It first considers the dynamics of asabiya and the ...
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This chapter presents case studies of historical dynamics in two polities: France and Russia in the longue durée (from the origins to 1900 C.E.). It first considers the dynamics of asabiya and the associated issues of frontiers and ethnogenesis in France and Russia before discussing the secular cycles involving linked demographic, social, and political processes. Both France and Russia experienced two ethnogenetic events: the Franks and the French, the Rus and the Russians. All four ethnies arose on metaethnic frontiers, and all states went through secular cycles. In the case of Gaul-France, the observed oscillations during the 2000-year period are in agreement with those predicted by the demographic-structural theory. The results also show that the decentralization phases of secular cycles are almost invariably characterized by the “fathers-and-sons” pattern, in which instability occurs in waves about two generations apart.Less
This chapter presents case studies of historical dynamics in two polities: France and Russia in the longue durée (from the origins to 1900 C.E.). It first considers the dynamics of asabiya and the associated issues of frontiers and ethnogenesis in France and Russia before discussing the secular cycles involving linked demographic, social, and political processes. Both France and Russia experienced two ethnogenetic events: the Franks and the French, the Rus and the Russians. All four ethnies arose on metaethnic frontiers, and all states went through secular cycles. In the case of Gaul-France, the observed oscillations during the 2000-year period are in agreement with those predicted by the demographic-structural theory. The results also show that the decentralization phases of secular cycles are almost invariably characterized by the “fathers-and-sons” pattern, in which instability occurs in waves about two generations apart.