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Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?

Ulrich Hoffrage, Ralph Hertwig, and Gerd Gigerenzer

in Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
May 2011
ISBN:
9780199744282
eISBN:
9780199894727
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199744282.003.0010
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Human-Technology Interaction

With the benefit of feedback about the outcome of an event, people's recalled judgments are typically closer to the outcome of the event than their original judgments were. It has been suggested that ... More


Looking Back on What We Knew and When We Knew It: The Role of Time in the Development of Hindsight Bias

Fred B. Bryant and Adam DeHoek

in Judgments Over Time: The Interplay of Thoughts, Feelings, and Behaviors

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780195177664
eISBN:
9780199848218
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195177664.003.0013
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter describes research on the hindsight bias, which is the tendency for people to reappraise events after the fact as if they had been ... More


Punitive Damages: How Juries Decide

Cass R. Sunstein, Reid Hastie, John W. Payne, David A. Schkade, and W. Kip Viscusi

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
March 2013
ISBN:
9780226780146
eISBN:
9780226780160
Item type:
book
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226780160.001.0001
Subject:
Law, Company and Commercial Law

Over the past two decades, the United States has seen a dramatic increase in the number and magnitude of punitive damages verdicts rendered by juries in civil trials. In cases involving accidents, ... More


Negligence

Jennifer K. Robbennolt and Valerie P. Hans

in The Psychology of Tort Law

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780814724941
eISBN:
9780814724712
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
NYU Press
DOI:
10.18574/nyu/9780814724941.003.0004
Subject:
Psychology, Social Psychology

This chapter explores the “reasonable person” who sits at the heart of tort law and negligence. Psychology has important implications for understanding this central figure. Psychological research ... More


Looking Backward in Punitive Judgments: 20–20 Vision?

Reid Hastie, David A. Schkade, and John W. Payne

in Punitive Damages: How Juries Decide

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
March 2013
ISBN:
9780226780146
eISBN:
9780226780160
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226780160.003.0009
Subject:
Law, Company and Commercial Law

This chapter explores a common judgmental phenomenon that is likely to play a particularly important role in judging recklessness: the hindsight effect. Because liability for punitive damages can ... More


Behavioral Studies

Eyal Zamir and Doron Teichman

in Behavioral Law and Economics

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
June 2018
ISBN:
9780190901349
eISBN:
9780190901387
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190901349.003.0003
Subject:
Law, Philosophy of Law

Against the background of rational choice theory, this chapter provides an overview of the behavioral sub-disciplines informing behavioral law and economics—including judgment and decision-making ... More


Picking Stocks to Beat the Market

Hersh Shefrin

in Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195161212
eISBN:
9780199832996
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195161211.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

The third theme of behavioral finance is inefficient markets. In recent years scholars have produced considerable evidence that heuristic‐driven bias and frame dependence cause markets to be ... More


Judicial Decision-Making

Eyal Zamir and Doron Teichman

in Behavioral Law and Economics

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
June 2018
ISBN:
9780190901349
eISBN:
9780190901387
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190901349.003.0016
Subject:
Law, Philosophy of Law

This chapter discusses the rich behavioral research on judicial decision-making. It opens with general theories of the cognitive process of judicial decision-making, focusing on the story model and ... More


The emotionality of official documents: the serious case review as an active text

Joanne Warner

in The emotional politics of social work and child protection

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
September 2015
ISBN:
9781447318422
eISBN:
9781447318446
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Policy Press
DOI:
10.1332/policypress/9781447318422.003.0006
Subject:
Social Work, Children and Families

This chapter is concerned with the emotional politics of documents, specifically serious case reviews. After providing background information, the chapter shows how case reviews can be understood as ... More


Three Views of “Human Error”

Robert L. Wears and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe

in Still Not Safe: Patient Safety and the Middle-Managing of American Medicine

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
November 2019
ISBN:
9780190271268
eISBN:
9780190271299
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190271268.003.0005
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health

The concept of human “error” was central to patient safety’s rise to prominence. Unfortunately healthcare developed a rather limited understanding of “error” from a complex body of work that had been ... More


The “Good Mother” and Crimes of Omission

Linda C. Fentiman

in Blaming Mothers: American Law and the Risks to Children's Health

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
September 2017
ISBN:
9780814724828
eISBN:
9780814770290
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
NYU Press
DOI:
10.18574/nyu/9780814724828.003.0007
Subject:
Law, Family Law

This chapter looks at mothers who are prosecuted for failing to protect their children from an abuser. Mothers are more likely than fathers to face criminal charges when an abusive partner harms the ... More


Balancing Acts

Michael J. Saks and Barbara A. Spellman

in The Psychological Foundations of Evidence Law

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9781479880041
eISBN:
9780814768785
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
NYU Press
DOI:
10.18574/nyu/9781479880041.003.0003
Subject:
Psychology, Social Psychology

Many rules of evidence employ balancing tests. The best known is Rule 403, requiring a judge to compare the probative value of evidence against (for example) its prejudicial effect. The problem of ... More


Clockwork Counterfactuals: Allohistory and the Steampunk Rhetoric of Inquiry

John M. Mckenzie

in Clockwork Rhetoric: The Language and Style of Steampunk

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
May 2015
ISBN:
9781628460919
eISBN:
9781626740532
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University Press of Mississippi
DOI:
10.14325/mississippi/9781628460919.003.0009
Subject:
Literature, 20th-century and Contemporary Literature

This chapter focuses on Steampunk’s use of allohistorical tropes, including the reversal of hindsight bias and point of divergence tropes, to present a rhetoric of science and technology reflective ... More


Consolidation and Stagnation

Robert L. Wears and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe

in Still Not Safe: Patient Safety and the Middle-Managing of American Medicine

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
November 2019
ISBN:
9780190271268
eISBN:
9780190271299
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190271268.003.0010
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health

Safety activity is prevalent, but little of value is produced. Several scandals tainted the patient safety movement. Diagnostic “error” became popular but in a highly medicalized way vulnerable to ... More


Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

Eliezer Yudkowsky

in Global Catastrophic Risks

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
November 2020
ISBN:
9780198570509
eISBN:
9780191918100
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198570509.003.0009
Subject:
Earth Sciences and Geography, Environmental Geography

All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling governments, reckless scientists, and other ... More


Irruption onto the World Stage

Robert L. Wears and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe

in Still Not Safe: Patient Safety and the Middle-Managing of American Medicine

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
November 2019
ISBN:
9780190271268
eISBN:
9780190271299
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190271268.003.0008
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) report To Err Is Human created a media firestorm. Prior to this, interest in patient safety might be described as a cult—a small group of passionate believers—but the ... More


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