W. Kip Viscusi
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293637
- eISBN:
- 9780191596995
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293631.001.0001
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Microeconomics
Ideally, individual risk‐taking decisions and government risk policies should be based on a rational balancing of risk and cost. Unfortunately, private decisions are subject to a number of biases ...
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Ideally, individual risk‐taking decisions and government risk policies should be based on a rational balancing of risk and cost. Unfortunately, private decisions are subject to a number of biases including overestimation of small probabilities and alarmist responses to ambiguous risks. Hazard warnings can potentially be effective, but are not always ideal, as the people now overestimate the risks of smoking. Labour market estimates of the value of life can provide a rational reference point for benefit‐cost tests of risk regulations. The pressures exerted by irrational public responses to risk often lead to regulations that impose inordinately high costs per life saved. Excessive regulation potentially makes society worse off from a health and safety standpoint as shown by the risk–risk analysis methodology developed in this book. Similarly, liability rules and social insurance systems also should be structured to reflect an efficient balancing of risk and cost.Less
Ideally, individual risk‐taking decisions and government risk policies should be based on a rational balancing of risk and cost. Unfortunately, private decisions are subject to a number of biases including overestimation of small probabilities and alarmist responses to ambiguous risks. Hazard warnings can potentially be effective, but are not always ideal, as the people now overestimate the risks of smoking. Labour market estimates of the value of life can provide a rational reference point for benefit‐cost tests of risk regulations. The pressures exerted by irrational public responses to risk often lead to regulations that impose inordinately high costs per life saved. Excessive regulation potentially makes society worse off from a health and safety standpoint as shown by the risk–risk analysis methodology developed in this book. Similarly, liability rules and social insurance systems also should be structured to reflect an efficient balancing of risk and cost.
George J. Mailath and Larry Samuelson
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195300796
- eISBN:
- 9780199783700
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300796.003.0008
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Behavioural Economics
This chapter uses the tools developed in Chapter 7 to bound the set of equilibrium payoffs for a repeated game, based on decomposing payoffs on half spaces. These bounds imply a lack of efficiency ...
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This chapter uses the tools developed in Chapter 7 to bound the set of equilibrium payoffs for a repeated game, based on decomposing payoffs on half spaces. These bounds imply a lack of efficiency for games with binding moral hazard. Extensive illustrations are provided, primarily with the prisoners’ dilemma.Less
This chapter uses the tools developed in Chapter 7 to bound the set of equilibrium payoffs for a repeated game, based on decomposing payoffs on half spaces. These bounds imply a lack of efficiency for games with binding moral hazard. Extensive illustrations are provided, primarily with the prisoners’ dilemma.
Adriana Petryna
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691151663
- eISBN:
- 9781400845095
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691151663.003.0003
- Subject:
- Anthropology, Social and Cultural Anthropology
This chapter explores some of the prehistory of reception of the Chernobyl disaster in various aspects of Soviet-era life from the perspective of individuals and families living outside ...
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This chapter explores some of the prehistory of reception of the Chernobyl disaster in various aspects of Soviet-era life from the perspective of individuals and families living outside state-designated zones. The discussion focuses on events in a time when bureaucratic lines between sufferers and nonsufferers were just beginning to be drawn, and when other informal structures of accountability regarding state-related abuses were in place. From the perspective of one family, the chapter shows how individuals reached the limits of their ability to reason, narrate, and project futures in the context of an invisible nuclear hazard. It explains how life narratives and family histories reflected a vexed and complex history of Ukraine, but also how these histories informed interpretations of the Chernobyl experience.Less
This chapter explores some of the prehistory of reception of the Chernobyl disaster in various aspects of Soviet-era life from the perspective of individuals and families living outside state-designated zones. The discussion focuses on events in a time when bureaucratic lines between sufferers and nonsufferers were just beginning to be drawn, and when other informal structures of accountability regarding state-related abuses were in place. From the perspective of one family, the chapter shows how individuals reached the limits of their ability to reason, narrate, and project futures in the context of an invisible nuclear hazard. It explains how life narratives and family histories reflected a vexed and complex history of Ukraine, but also how these histories informed interpretations of the Chernobyl experience.
Nathaniel Beck
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198292371
- eISBN:
- 9780191600159
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198292376.003.0009
- Subject:
- Political Science, Reference
Extending the regression model to analyse duration data, which vary over time and are ’right‐censored’, using the example of government durations. Explanations cover the exponential model and its ...
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Extending the regression model to analyse duration data, which vary over time and are ’right‐censored’, using the example of government durations. Explanations cover the exponential model and its extension to the Weibull model; discrete hazard rates; time‐varying covariates; multiple destinations data; and Cox's technique of partial likelihood. The example demonstrates the use of SPLUS, LIMPDEP, and STATA5 software.Less
Extending the regression model to analyse duration data, which vary over time and are ’right‐censored’, using the example of government durations. Explanations cover the exponential model and its extension to the Weibull model; discrete hazard rates; time‐varying covariates; multiple destinations data; and Cox's technique of partial likelihood. The example demonstrates the use of SPLUS, LIMPDEP, and STATA5 software.
Steve Selvin
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- September 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780195172805
- eISBN:
- 9780199865697
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195172805.001.0001
- Subject:
- Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology
Analytic procedures suitable for the study of human disease are scattered throughout the statistical and epidemiologic literature. Explanations of their properties are frequently presented in ...
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Analytic procedures suitable for the study of human disease are scattered throughout the statistical and epidemiologic literature. Explanations of their properties are frequently presented in mathematical and theoretical language. This text provides a clear understanding of the statistical methods that are widely used in epidemiologic research without depending on advanced mathematical or statistical theory. By applying these methods to actual data, this book reveals the strengths and weaknesses of each analytic approach. The book combines techniques from the fields of statistics, biostatistics, demography, and epidemiology to present an overview that does not require computational details of the statistical techniques described. Throughout, the text contains illuminating discussions with new elements for this edition, including the analysis of multi-level categorical data and simple, intuitive arguments that exponential survival times cause the hazard function to be constant. There are also new applied examples to illustrate such topics as the pitfalls of proportional mortality data, the analysis of matched pair categorical data, and the age-adjustment of mortality rates based on statistical models. The most important new feature is a chapter on Poisson regression analysis. This essential statistical tool permits the multivariable analysis of rates, probabilities, and counts.Less
Analytic procedures suitable for the study of human disease are scattered throughout the statistical and epidemiologic literature. Explanations of their properties are frequently presented in mathematical and theoretical language. This text provides a clear understanding of the statistical methods that are widely used in epidemiologic research without depending on advanced mathematical or statistical theory. By applying these methods to actual data, this book reveals the strengths and weaknesses of each analytic approach. The book combines techniques from the fields of statistics, biostatistics, demography, and epidemiology to present an overview that does not require computational details of the statistical techniques described. Throughout, the text contains illuminating discussions with new elements for this edition, including the analysis of multi-level categorical data and simple, intuitive arguments that exponential survival times cause the hazard function to be constant. There are also new applied examples to illustrate such topics as the pitfalls of proportional mortality data, the analysis of matched pair categorical data, and the age-adjustment of mortality rates based on statistical models. The most important new feature is a chapter on Poisson regression analysis. This essential statistical tool permits the multivariable analysis of rates, probabilities, and counts.
Kaare Strøm, Wolfgang C. Müller, and Torbjörn Bergman
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- January 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780198297840
- eISBN:
- 9780191602016
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019829784X.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Parliamentary government is the most common way to organize delegation and accountability in contemporary democracies. Parliamentary government is a system of government in which the prime minister ...
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Parliamentary government is the most common way to organize delegation and accountability in contemporary democracies. Parliamentary government is a system of government in which the prime minister and his or her cabinet are accountable to any majority of the members of parliament and can be voted out of office by the latter. Parliamentary democracy is a chain of delegation and accountability, from the voters to the ultimate policy makers, in which at each link (stage), a principal (in whom authority is originally) delegates to an agent, whom the principal has conditionally authorized to act in his or her name and place. The parliamentary chain of delegation is characterized by indirectness and singularity (i.e. at each link of the parliamentary chain, a single principal delegates to a single agent). At each stage of this chain, delegation problems (such as adverse selection and moral hazard) can occur.Less
Parliamentary government is the most common way to organize delegation and accountability in contemporary democracies. Parliamentary government is a system of government in which the prime minister and his or her cabinet are accountable to any majority of the members of parliament and can be voted out of office by the latter. Parliamentary democracy is a chain of delegation and accountability, from the voters to the ultimate policy makers, in which at each link (stage), a principal (in whom authority is originally) delegates to an agent, whom the principal has conditionally authorized to act in his or her name and place. The parliamentary chain of delegation is characterized by indirectness and singularity (i.e. at each link of the parliamentary chain, a single principal delegates to a single agent). At each stage of this chain, delegation problems (such as adverse selection and moral hazard) can occur.
Arthur Lupia
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- January 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780198297840
- eISBN:
- 9780191602016
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019829784X.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Presents a formal theoretical framework that clarifies when principals can, and cannot, use delegation to accomplish desired ends. It shows the conditions (having to do with preferences and ...
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Presents a formal theoretical framework that clarifies when principals can, and cannot, use delegation to accomplish desired ends. It shows the conditions (having to do with preferences and information) under which agents will act in their principals’ interests and how political institutions can alleviate the perils of delegation. Finally, it discusses the implications of its theoretical insights on chains of political delegation.Less
Presents a formal theoretical framework that clarifies when principals can, and cannot, use delegation to accomplish desired ends. It shows the conditions (having to do with preferences and information) under which agents will act in their principals’ interests and how political institutions can alleviate the perils of delegation. Finally, it discusses the implications of its theoretical insights on chains of political delegation.
Kaare Strøm
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- January 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780198297840
- eISBN:
- 9780191602016
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019829784X.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Identifies three motivations for political delegation (capacity, competence, collective action problems) and discusses agency problems and mechanisms of accountability. An ideal-typical form of ...
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Identifies three motivations for political delegation (capacity, competence, collective action problems) and discusses agency problems and mechanisms of accountability. An ideal-typical form of parliamentary democracy is introduced to reveal that singularity and indirect delegation are key ingredients of delegation and accountability. Develops a delegation model that reveals more agency loss (policy slippage) in parliamentary democracy than in two versions of presidentialism. Parliamentary democracies use ex ante screening by cohesive political parties to protect against adverse selection. Delegation and accountability make parliamentary democracies more efficient, but frequently less transparent. Identifies the implications of different forms of parliamentarism, such as Westminster parliamentarism, pivotal parliamentarism, and constrained parliamentarism.Less
Identifies three motivations for political delegation (capacity, competence, collective action problems) and discusses agency problems and mechanisms of accountability. An ideal-typical form of parliamentary democracy is introduced to reveal that singularity and indirect delegation are key ingredients of delegation and accountability. Develops a delegation model that reveals more agency loss (policy slippage) in parliamentary democracy than in two versions of presidentialism. Parliamentary democracies use ex ante screening by cohesive political parties to protect against adverse selection. Delegation and accountability make parliamentary democracies more efficient, but frequently less transparent. Identifies the implications of different forms of parliamentarism, such as Westminster parliamentarism, pivotal parliamentarism, and constrained parliamentarism.
Mark Carey
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195396065
- eISBN:
- 9780199775682
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.001.0001
- Subject:
- History, Latin American History
Climate change is producing profound changes globally. This environmental history analysis offers a much needed but barely examined ground‐level study of human impacts and responses to climate change ...
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Climate change is producing profound changes globally. This environmental history analysis offers a much needed but barely examined ground‐level study of human impacts and responses to climate change over time. It analyzes how people around Peru's Cordillera Blanca mountain range grappled with climate‐induced glacial lake outburst floods and glacier avalanches, which killed approximately 25,000 people since 1941. As survivors grieved, they formed community organizations and demanded state programs to drain dangerous glacial lakes. Yet they rejected hazard zoning in their communities. Peruvian engineers working with miniscule budgets invented innovative strategies to drain dozens of unstable lakes that continue forming in the twenty first century. But hazard mitigation, disaster responses, and climate change adaptation were never just about engineering the Andes to protect vulnerable populations. Local urban and rural populations, engineers, hydroelectric developers, irrigators, tourists, and policymakers all perceived and responded to glacier retreat differently, based on their own view of an ideal Andean world. Disaster prevention projects involved debates about economic development, state authority, race relations, class divisions, cultural values, the evolution of science and technology studies, and shifting views of nature. Over time, the influx of new groups helped transform glaciated mountains into commodities to consume. Locals lost power in the process and today comprise just one among many stakeholders—and perhaps the least powerful. Climate change transformed a region, triggering catastrophes while simultaneously jumpstarting political and economic modernization processes. This book's historical perspective illuminates these trends that would be overlooked in any scientific projections about future climate scenarios.Less
Climate change is producing profound changes globally. This environmental history analysis offers a much needed but barely examined ground‐level study of human impacts and responses to climate change over time. It analyzes how people around Peru's Cordillera Blanca mountain range grappled with climate‐induced glacial lake outburst floods and glacier avalanches, which killed approximately 25,000 people since 1941. As survivors grieved, they formed community organizations and demanded state programs to drain dangerous glacial lakes. Yet they rejected hazard zoning in their communities. Peruvian engineers working with miniscule budgets invented innovative strategies to drain dozens of unstable lakes that continue forming in the twenty first century. But hazard mitigation, disaster responses, and climate change adaptation were never just about engineering the Andes to protect vulnerable populations. Local urban and rural populations, engineers, hydroelectric developers, irrigators, tourists, and policymakers all perceived and responded to glacier retreat differently, based on their own view of an ideal Andean world. Disaster prevention projects involved debates about economic development, state authority, race relations, class divisions, cultural values, the evolution of science and technology studies, and shifting views of nature. Over time, the influx of new groups helped transform glaciated mountains into commodities to consume. Locals lost power in the process and today comprise just one among many stakeholders—and perhaps the least powerful. Climate change transformed a region, triggering catastrophes while simultaneously jumpstarting political and economic modernization processes. This book's historical perspective illuminates these trends that would be overlooked in any scientific projections about future climate scenarios.
Mark Carey
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195396065
- eISBN:
- 9780199775682
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.003.0002
- Subject:
- History, Latin American History
This chapter analyzes the onset of Cordillera Blanca glacier disasters in 1941 through an examination of a glacial lake outburst flood that killed 5,000 people and destroyed one-third of the Ancash ...
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This chapter analyzes the onset of Cordillera Blanca glacier disasters in 1941 through an examination of a glacial lake outburst flood that killed 5,000 people and destroyed one-third of the Ancash capital city of Huaraz in the Callejón de Huaylas. In the aftermath, Peruvians scrambled not only to survive and rebuild but also to determine the cause of the flood. While hazard mitigation began right after the catastrophe, it progressed haphazardly during the 1940s. Just as the 1941 flood made urban residents in Huaraz intimately aware of the previously unrecognized melting glaciers over their city, the glacial lake disaster made Peruvians in Lima and elsewhere significantly more aware of the Andean mountains—both their peril and their possibilities. Local urban and rural residents, engineers, scientists, and government officials who began studying glacial lake hazards after 1941 all brought their own perspectives about glaciers, construing them simultaneously as hazards and resources.Less
This chapter analyzes the onset of Cordillera Blanca glacier disasters in 1941 through an examination of a glacial lake outburst flood that killed 5,000 people and destroyed one-third of the Ancash capital city of Huaraz in the Callejón de Huaylas. In the aftermath, Peruvians scrambled not only to survive and rebuild but also to determine the cause of the flood. While hazard mitigation began right after the catastrophe, it progressed haphazardly during the 1940s. Just as the 1941 flood made urban residents in Huaraz intimately aware of the previously unrecognized melting glaciers over their city, the glacial lake disaster made Peruvians in Lima and elsewhere significantly more aware of the Andean mountains—both their peril and their possibilities. Local urban and rural residents, engineers, scientists, and government officials who began studying glacial lake hazards after 1941 all brought their own perspectives about glaciers, construing them simultaneously as hazards and resources.
Mark Carey
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195396065
- eISBN:
- 9780199775682
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.003.0003
- Subject:
- History, Latin American History
This chapter examines disaster responses and environmental perceptions of climate change and glacier retreat through an analysis of the 1941 Huaraz and 1945 Chavín de Huantar glacial lake outburst ...
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This chapter examines disaster responses and environmental perceptions of climate change and glacier retreat through an analysis of the 1941 Huaraz and 1945 Chavín de Huantar glacial lake outburst floods, which killed 5,000 and 500 people, respectively. For the people most affected, the urban Huaraz population, the disaster not only leveled physical structures but also toppled symbols of social standing, wealth, status, and even the culturally constructed racial categories that supposedly distinguished Indians, mestizos, and creoles (whites). Essentially, the floods erased supposed boundaries between highland and lowland, countryside and city, and nature and civilization. Conceptualizing Cordillera Blanca glacial lake disasters as the combination of societal and environmental forces illuminates the culture of climate change and reveals why residents later rejected hazard zoning. It also explains why Huaraz urban inhabitants turned to state science and technology to protect them from glacier retreat.Less
This chapter examines disaster responses and environmental perceptions of climate change and glacier retreat through an analysis of the 1941 Huaraz and 1945 Chavín de Huantar glacial lake outburst floods, which killed 5,000 and 500 people, respectively. For the people most affected, the urban Huaraz population, the disaster not only leveled physical structures but also toppled symbols of social standing, wealth, status, and even the culturally constructed racial categories that supposedly distinguished Indians, mestizos, and creoles (whites). Essentially, the floods erased supposed boundaries between highland and lowland, countryside and city, and nature and civilization. Conceptualizing Cordillera Blanca glacial lake disasters as the combination of societal and environmental forces illuminates the culture of climate change and reveals why residents later rejected hazard zoning. It also explains why Huaraz urban inhabitants turned to state science and technology to protect them from glacier retreat.
Mark Carey
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195396065
- eISBN:
- 9780199775682
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.003.0004
- Subject:
- History, Latin American History
In 1950, the Los Cedros glacial lake outburst flood destroyed the nearly constructed Cañón del Pato hydroelectric facility. President Manuel Odría responded by creating the Control Commission of ...
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In 1950, the Los Cedros glacial lake outburst flood destroyed the nearly constructed Cañón del Pato hydroelectric facility. President Manuel Odría responded by creating the Control Commission of Cordillera Blanca Lakes to prevent additional floods caused by climate change and glacier retreat in the Andes. The Lakes Commission achieved marked success in glacier science and glacial lake engineering during the 1950s and 60s, including a glacial lake inventory, lake classification system, and engineering projects to drain and dam glacial lakes. Government support for the Lakes Commission was often motivated by and facilitated coast-focused economic development initiatives through the Peruvian Santa Corporation rather than humanitarian concerns for vulnerable populations. These hazard mitigation programs ultimately made the state responsible for disaster prevention, and in the process facilitated nation building and gave the government more control over Andean space and resources, in part with local support because residents wanted to prevent floods.Less
In 1950, the Los Cedros glacial lake outburst flood destroyed the nearly constructed Cañón del Pato hydroelectric facility. President Manuel Odría responded by creating the Control Commission of Cordillera Blanca Lakes to prevent additional floods caused by climate change and glacier retreat in the Andes. The Lakes Commission achieved marked success in glacier science and glacial lake engineering during the 1950s and 60s, including a glacial lake inventory, lake classification system, and engineering projects to drain and dam glacial lakes. Government support for the Lakes Commission was often motivated by and facilitated coast-focused economic development initiatives through the Peruvian Santa Corporation rather than humanitarian concerns for vulnerable populations. These hazard mitigation programs ultimately made the state responsible for disaster prevention, and in the process facilitated nation building and gave the government more control over Andean space and resources, in part with local support because residents wanted to prevent floods.
Mark Carey
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195396065
- eISBN:
- 9780199775682
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.003.0006
- Subject:
- History, Latin American History
Two glacier avalanches from Mount Huascarán killed 4,000 people and destroyed the town of Ranrahirca and killed 15,000 people and devastated the city of Yungay in 1970, making it the most deadly ...
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Two glacier avalanches from Mount Huascarán killed 4,000 people and destroyed the town of Ranrahirca and killed 15,000 people and devastated the city of Yungay in 1970, making it the most deadly glacier disaster in world history. Because these avalanches were unpredictable and uncontrollable, the Peruvian government tried more forcefully than it had during previous decades to implement hazard zoning to reduce disaster vulnerability in the Callejón de Huaylas. Local residents with different risk perceptions, however, successfully resisted zoning plans. In the process, glacier and glacial lake science became contested knowledge that various social groups sought to control. Ironically, locals opposed zoning to limit state intervention in their communities. But by inhabiting hazard zones they ultimately became even more dependent on state programs to monitor Cordillera Blanca glaciers and drain glacial lakes. As glacier experts tried to protect populations, they mediated between the centralized state and various local populations.Less
Two glacier avalanches from Mount Huascarán killed 4,000 people and destroyed the town of Ranrahirca and killed 15,000 people and devastated the city of Yungay in 1970, making it the most deadly glacier disaster in world history. Because these avalanches were unpredictable and uncontrollable, the Peruvian government tried more forcefully than it had during previous decades to implement hazard zoning to reduce disaster vulnerability in the Callejón de Huaylas. Local residents with different risk perceptions, however, successfully resisted zoning plans. In the process, glacier and glacial lake science became contested knowledge that various social groups sought to control. Ironically, locals opposed zoning to limit state intervention in their communities. But by inhabiting hazard zones they ultimately became even more dependent on state programs to monitor Cordillera Blanca glaciers and drain glacial lakes. As glacier experts tried to protect populations, they mediated between the centralized state and various local populations.
Mark Carey
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195396065
- eISBN:
- 9780199775682
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.003.0008
- Subject:
- History, Latin American History
Neoliberal reforms during the 1990s transformed natural resource access and environmental management worldwide. In Peru, hydroelectricity privatization allowed Duke Energy to consolidate control over ...
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Neoliberal reforms during the 1990s transformed natural resource access and environmental management worldwide. In Peru, hydroelectricity privatization allowed Duke Energy to consolidate control over the Cañón del Pato facility on the Santa River, which is fed largely by Cordillera Blanca glacier runoff. Once Duke Energy Egenor began management in 1997, the state's hydroelectric company, Electroperú, ended its glacier monitoring and glacial lake engineering programs. This was the first break in continuous glacier disaster prevention programs since 1951. Neoliberal privatization thus heightened climate change vulnerability while simultaneously making Duke Energy a major but highly contested stakeholder in the Santa River waterscape that extended up to Cordillera Blanca glaciers. Meanwhile, threats from glacier retreat and the 1997 El Niño event continued. In 2003, fears of another glacial lake outburst flood at Lake Palcacocha above Huaraz spurred government programs to manage glacier hazards and bolstered popular protests against Duke Energy.Less
Neoliberal reforms during the 1990s transformed natural resource access and environmental management worldwide. In Peru, hydroelectricity privatization allowed Duke Energy to consolidate control over the Cañón del Pato facility on the Santa River, which is fed largely by Cordillera Blanca glacier runoff. Once Duke Energy Egenor began management in 1997, the state's hydroelectric company, Electroperú, ended its glacier monitoring and glacial lake engineering programs. This was the first break in continuous glacier disaster prevention programs since 1951. Neoliberal privatization thus heightened climate change vulnerability while simultaneously making Duke Energy a major but highly contested stakeholder in the Santa River waterscape that extended up to Cordillera Blanca glaciers. Meanwhile, threats from glacier retreat and the 1997 El Niño event continued. In 2003, fears of another glacial lake outburst flood at Lake Palcacocha above Huaraz spurred government programs to manage glacier hazards and bolstered popular protests against Duke Energy.
Mark Carey
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195396065
- eISBN:
- 9780199775682
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195396065.003.0009
- Subject:
- History, Latin American History
As glacier retreat threatens people worldwide, this study raises crucial concerns about the successes, failures, and issues that societies might face as they grapple with climate change and shrinking ...
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As glacier retreat threatens people worldwide, this study raises crucial concerns about the successes, failures, and issues that societies might face as they grapple with climate change and shrinking glaciers. This case of climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation in response to glacier disasters over seventy years yields several broadly applicable conclusions. Residents living close to glaciers or in glacially fed watersheds endured the highest cost of glacier retreat because they lost their lives, families, and communities. Disaster responses brought new historical actors—scientists, engineers, water developers, tourists, the nation state, and most recently, the World Bank—to a region where these groups previously had little knowledge about or control over. Each group brought its own ideas about how to define, manage, and utilize the glaciated landscape. Power dynamics among the groups influenced environmental management policies and whose vision for the Andes, its glaciers, and its water ultimately won out.Less
As glacier retreat threatens people worldwide, this study raises crucial concerns about the successes, failures, and issues that societies might face as they grapple with climate change and shrinking glaciers. This case of climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation in response to glacier disasters over seventy years yields several broadly applicable conclusions. Residents living close to glaciers or in glacially fed watersheds endured the highest cost of glacier retreat because they lost their lives, families, and communities. Disaster responses brought new historical actors—scientists, engineers, water developers, tourists, the nation state, and most recently, the World Bank—to a region where these groups previously had little knowledge about or control over. Each group brought its own ideas about how to define, manage, and utilize the glaciated landscape. Power dynamics among the groups influenced environmental management policies and whose vision for the Andes, its glaciers, and its water ultimately won out.
Darrell Duffie
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- September 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780199279234
- eISBN:
- 9780191728419
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199279234.003.0002
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Financial Economics
This chapter provides the mathematical foundations for stochastic intensity, on which most of the methodology is based. The intensity of an event such as default is its conditional mean arrival rate, ...
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This chapter provides the mathematical foundations for stochastic intensity, on which most of the methodology is based. The intensity of an event such as default is its conditional mean arrival rate, measured in events per year, given all information currently available to the observer. The chapter also presents the multi-firm version of the doubly-stochastic hypothesis, under which the sole source of default correlation between two firms is the dependence of their default intensities on common or correlated observable risk factors. The doubly-stochastic property rules out contagion as well as correlation induced by unobservable risk factors. The chapter includes a mathematical device for testing a model of the default intensity processes of a large number of borrowers.Less
This chapter provides the mathematical foundations for stochastic intensity, on which most of the methodology is based. The intensity of an event such as default is its conditional mean arrival rate, measured in events per year, given all information currently available to the observer. The chapter also presents the multi-firm version of the doubly-stochastic hypothesis, under which the sole source of default correlation between two firms is the dependence of their default intensities on common or correlated observable risk factors. The doubly-stochastic property rules out contagion as well as correlation induced by unobservable risk factors. The chapter includes a mathematical device for testing a model of the default intensity processes of a large number of borrowers.
Lyn C. Thomas
- Published in print:
- 2009
- Published Online:
- May 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199232130
- eISBN:
- 9780191715914
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199232130.003.0004
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, Mathematical Finance
This chapter begins by reviewing the role of behavioural scoring and risk/reward matrices in the way a lender manages borrowers. It points out that current methods do not allow for the future changes ...
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This chapter begins by reviewing the role of behavioural scoring and risk/reward matrices in the way a lender manages borrowers. It points out that current methods do not allow for the future changes in customer behaviour nor do they optimize the expected profit. It then shows how two approaches — Markov chain models and survival analysis ideas — can lead to dynamic profitability based models. In particular, the extension of Markov chains to Markov decision processes allows one to optimize decisions such as how to adjust the credit limit. In survival analysis, the proportional hazard models lead to hazard scores which play the same role as credit scores but work on all future performance periods. Moreover, the ideas of competing risk in survival analysis allows one to build profitability models that allow for default, prepayment, and attrition.Less
This chapter begins by reviewing the role of behavioural scoring and risk/reward matrices in the way a lender manages borrowers. It points out that current methods do not allow for the future changes in customer behaviour nor do they optimize the expected profit. It then shows how two approaches — Markov chain models and survival analysis ideas — can lead to dynamic profitability based models. In particular, the extension of Markov chains to Markov decision processes allows one to optimize decisions such as how to adjust the credit limit. In survival analysis, the proportional hazard models lead to hazard scores which play the same role as credit scores but work on all future performance periods. Moreover, the ideas of competing risk in survival analysis allows one to build profitability models that allow for default, prepayment, and attrition.
Oisín Tansey
- Published in print:
- 2009
- Published Online:
- May 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199561032
- eISBN:
- 9780191721496
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199561032.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Democratization
This chapter uses and modifies some of the concepts developed in the transitions literature in the past in order to develop a theoretical framework that can incorporate the extensive international ...
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This chapter uses and modifies some of the concepts developed in the transitions literature in the past in order to develop a theoretical framework that can incorporate the extensive international involvement entailed in international administration. In particular, this involves re-examining the idea of the mode of transition, which has usually been accounted for with reference to domestic variables alone, and modifying it to incorporate the role of international actors. The chapter also explores the particular mechanisms through which international forces influence domestic level politics, and highlights the positive and negative affects this form of international involvement can have. Finally, it identifies three core arenas of democratic transition and highlights the key points of interaction in each arena between domestic and international forces.Less
This chapter uses and modifies some of the concepts developed in the transitions literature in the past in order to develop a theoretical framework that can incorporate the extensive international involvement entailed in international administration. In particular, this involves re-examining the idea of the mode of transition, which has usually been accounted for with reference to domestic variables alone, and modifying it to incorporate the role of international actors. The chapter also explores the particular mechanisms through which international forces influence domestic level politics, and highlights the positive and negative affects this form of international involvement can have. Finally, it identifies three core arenas of democratic transition and highlights the key points of interaction in each arena between domestic and international forces.
Oisín Tansey
- Published in print:
- 2009
- Published Online:
- May 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780199561032
- eISBN:
- 9780191721496
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199561032.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Democratization
This concluding chapter restates and further examines the findings of the book in detail. The first section explores the impact of democratic regime-building operations across the three cases, paying ...
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This concluding chapter restates and further examines the findings of the book in detail. The first section explores the impact of democratic regime-building operations across the three cases, paying particular attention to the mechanisms of influence and the influence on the mode of transition. The second section identifies a range of challenges to democratic regime-building, including the inherent limitations of international democracy promotion in these settings and the role of domestic state weakness and political divisions. Subsequent sections then examine a set of further issues, including the implications of the findings for theory and for policy, and the scope of the book's findings.Less
This concluding chapter restates and further examines the findings of the book in detail. The first section explores the impact of democratic regime-building operations across the three cases, paying particular attention to the mechanisms of influence and the influence on the mode of transition. The second section identifies a range of challenges to democratic regime-building, including the inherent limitations of international democracy promotion in these settings and the role of domestic state weakness and political divisions. Subsequent sections then examine a set of further issues, including the implications of the findings for theory and for policy, and the scope of the book's findings.
Witham Larry
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195394757
- eISBN:
- 9780199777372
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195394757.003.0004
- Subject:
- Religion, Religion and Society
Religion is a form of risk management in human lives and in religious groups. Pascal’s Wager famously illustrates the calculation of loss and benefit in religious belief. But there are other economic ...
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Religion is a form of risk management in human lives and in religious groups. Pascal’s Wager famously illustrates the calculation of loss and benefit in religious belief. But there are other economic models for how religion deals with uncertainty, and this chapter looks at three. First is insurance against risk, with its byproduct of “moral hazard. Second is the need to verify the reliability of religious “goods,” which economists call “credence goods.” Religions, like businesses, seek to assure consumers of reliability. Finally, consumers search for reliable information, which in religion means explanations about the gods, the afterlife, and ultimate religious consequences, such as hell. Typically, monotheistic faiths are deemed “high risk” religions because of their belief in ultimate consequences. But all religions have this feature to some extent, speaking to the human incentive to avoid risk.Less
Religion is a form of risk management in human lives and in religious groups. Pascal’s Wager famously illustrates the calculation of loss and benefit in religious belief. But there are other economic models for how religion deals with uncertainty, and this chapter looks at three. First is insurance against risk, with its byproduct of “moral hazard. Second is the need to verify the reliability of religious “goods,” which economists call “credence goods.” Religions, like businesses, seek to assure consumers of reliability. Finally, consumers search for reliable information, which in religion means explanations about the gods, the afterlife, and ultimate religious consequences, such as hell. Typically, monotheistic faiths are deemed “high risk” religions because of their belief in ultimate consequences. But all religions have this feature to some extent, speaking to the human incentive to avoid risk.
