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Bayesians versus Frequentists

Peter Coles

in From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of Unpredictability

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
January 2010
ISBN:
9780198567622
eISBN:
9780191718250
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198567622.003.0004
Subject:
Physics, Theoretical, Computational, and Statistical Physics

There are two competing interpretations of probability. One is the view that probabilities should be interpreted as frequencies in some large ensemble of repeated experiments under identical ... More


Introduction

Claus Beisbart and Stephan Hartmann

in Probabilities in Physics

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780199577439
eISBN:
9780191730603
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199577439.003.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter states the aims of this volume and provides an introduction to the material to follow. In the first section, various interpretations of probabilities are surveyed and discussed with an ... More


The Collectivization of Risk and the Early Welfare States

Rachel Z. Friedman

in Probable Justice: Risk, Insurance, and the Welfare State

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9780226730769
eISBN:
9780226731094
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226731094.003.0005
Subject:
Political Science, Political Theory

The period considered in this chapter, from the mid-nineteenth through the early twentieth centuries, saw intensified political interest in social insurance to promote security, cultivate social ... More


Nullifying the Dull Hypothesis: Conventional Versus Personalized Science

Michael R. Powers

in Acts of God and Man: Ruminations on Risk and Insurance

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231153676
eISBN:
9780231527057
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231153676.003.0014
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

The scientific method (SM) is widely touted as the most effective available guide to human understanding. However, it is imprecisely defined and inconsistently implemented. Not only is there no ... More


Into the Unknown: Modeling Uncertainty

Michael R. Powers

in Acts of God and Man: Ruminations on Risk and Insurance

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231153676
eISBN:
9780231527057
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231153676.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

Every manifestation of risk is associated with one or more unknown quantities. For instance, in the case of the inevitable death of an individual, it is primarily the time of death that is unknown. ... More


The Value of Experience: Independence and Estimation

Michael R. Powers

in Acts of God and Man: Ruminations on Risk and Insurance

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231153676
eISBN:
9780231527057
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231153676.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

This chapter explores a number of concepts and methods employed in the frequency/classical approach, called frequentism. To present the standard frequentist paradigm, it begins by defining the ... More


The fallacious Doomsday Argument

Olle Häggström

in Here Be Dragons: Science, Technology and the Future of Humanity

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
January 2016
ISBN:
9780198723547
eISBN:
9780191790331
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198723547.003.0007
Subject:
Mathematics, Logic / Computer Science / Mathematical Philosophy

The fallacious Doomsday Argument has haunted philosophy and futurology since the 1990s. It is a statistical argument that purports to show, almost without empirical data, that human extinction is ... More


Two Non-senses of “Probability”

Wayne C. Myrvold

in Beyond Chance and Credence: A Theory of Hybrid Probabilities

Published in print:
2021
Published Online:
February 2021
ISBN:
9780198865094
eISBN:
9780191897481
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198865094.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

This chapter engages in some ground-clearing. Two concepts have been proposed to play the role of objective probability. One is associated with the idea that probability involves mere counting of ... More


What Probabilistic Causation Should Be

Rani Lill Anjum and Stephen Mumford

in Causation in Science and the Methods of Scientific Discovery

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
November 2018
ISBN:
9780198733669
eISBN:
9780191798030
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198733669.003.0020
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Irrespective of degrees of belief, there are cases where the world itself seems to work in a probabilistic way. But there are different accounts of what this means. One view is that the facts of ... More


Introduction: Chance and Temporal Asymmetry

Alastair Wilson (ed.)

in Chance and Temporal Asymmetry

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199673421
eISBN:
9780191782534
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199673421.003.0015
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

The main purpose of this introduction is to provide background on debates about chance (mostly from the philosophy of probability literature) and about the direction of time (mostly from the ... More


Proving the Principal Principle

Wolfgang Schwarz

in Chance and Temporal Asymmetry

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199673421
eISBN:
9780191782534
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199673421.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

Any credible interpretation of objective chance should make sense of the connection between objective chance and rational degree of belief. Ideally, an account that identifies chance with some ... More


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