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Escaping the Reality Test: How Macroeconomic Forecasters Deal With ‘Errors’

Olivier Pilmis

in Uncertain Futures: Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
August 2018
ISBN:
9780198820802
eISBN:
9780191860430
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198820802.003.0006
Subject:
Business and Management, Political Economy

Economic crises regularly give rise to criticisms of economists and forecasters for having failed to blow the whistle. Forecasters’ efforts to deal with ‘errors’ and events that contradict their ... More


Observation impact on the short-range forecast

C. Cardinali

in Advanced Data Assimilation for Geosciences: Lecture Notes of the Les Houches School of Physics: Special Issue, June 2012

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
March 2015
ISBN:
9780198723844
eISBN:
9780191791185
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198723844.003.0006
Subject:
Physics, Geophysics, Atmospheric and Environmental Physics

This chapter describes the concept of forecast error sensitivity to observations (FSO) and its use for diagnostic purposes. Assessment of the observational contribution to analysis and forecasting is ... More


Allais’s HRL Formulation: Illustration of Its Dynamic Properties by an Example of Hyperinflation (Zimbabwe 2000–2008)

Eric Barthalon

in Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability: Reviving Allais's Lost Theory of Psychological Time

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231166287
eISBN:
9780231538305
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231166287.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Behavioural Economics

This chapter illustrates the dynamic properties of the HRL formulation by means of a detailed numerical example based on the hyperinflation observed in Zimbabwe between 2000 and 2008. It first ... More


Impulse Response Analysis

M. Hashem Pesaran

in Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
March 2016
ISBN:
9780198736912
eISBN:
9780191800504
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198736912.003.0024
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter first introduces impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition for unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) models and discusses the orthogonalized and generalized ... More


Conclusion

Eric Barthalon

in Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability: Reviving Allais's Lost Theory of Psychological Time

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231166287
eISBN:
9780231538305
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231166287.003.0012
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Behavioural Economics

This book concludes by summarizing the key arguments in the form of a comparison of the HRL formulation with the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). It explains what makes Maurice Allais's ... More


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