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Forbidden Areas and Anchor Points

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The outcomes of sociopolitical processes often depend on the factor in shortest supply; this makes multiplication of factors superior to their addition. Naïve linear regression may not detect all ... More


Example of Model Building: Electoral Volatility

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on ... More


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