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Parametric Uncertainty and Fat Tails

Christian Gollier

in Pricing the Planet's Future: The Economics of Discounting in an Uncertain World

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691148762
eISBN:
9781400845408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691148762.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

This chapter shows how the probability distribution for economic growth is subject to some parametric uncertainty. There is a limited data set for the dynamics of economic growth, and the absence of ... More


Probability and Random Processes

Stefan Thurner, Rudolf Hanel, and Peter Klimekl

in Introduction to the Theory of Complex Systems

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
November 2018
ISBN:
9780198821939
eISBN:
9780191861062
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198821939.003.0002
Subject:
Physics, Theoretical, Computational, and Statistical Physics

Phenomena, systems, and processes are rarely purely deterministic, but contain stochastic,probabilistic, or random components. For that reason, a probabilistic descriptionof most phenomena is ... More


From dispersal to boosted range expansion

Cang Hui and David M. Richardson

in Invasion Dynamics

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
March 2017
ISBN:
9780198745334
eISBN:
9780191807046
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198745334.003.0004
Subject:
Biology, Ecology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies

The spreading dynamics of invasive species in their novel range is often faster and has greater variability than would be predicted from diffusion-based models, which leads to an underestimation of ... More


Worshiping Math

Gary Smith and Jay Cordes

in The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
September 2019
ISBN:
9780198844396
eISBN:
9780191879937
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198844396.003.0004
Subject:
Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, Numerical Analysis

Data-mining tools, in general, tend to be mathematically sophisticated, yet often make implausible assumptions. For example, analysts often assume a normal distribution and disregard the fat tails ... More


Is It Time to Rethink “Normal” in Population Health Research?

Neal V. Dawson and Pierpaolo Andriani

in Complex Systems and Population Health

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
July 2020
ISBN:
9780190880743
eISBN:
9780190880774
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190880743.003.0010
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

The normal distribution has been useful to the field of population health—appropriately describing the distribution of many outcomes and serving as a foundation for powerful statistical analyses. But ... More


Implications for Long-term Investors of the Shifting Distribution of Capital Market Returns

James Moore and Niels Pedersen

in Recreating Sustainable Retirement: Resilience, Solvency, and Tail Risk

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
December 2014
ISBN:
9780198719243
eISBN:
9780191788505
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198719243.003.0003
Subject:
Business and Management, Pensions and Pension Management

While short-run forecasting has value for financial entertainment and speculation, in the United States and much of the developed world, there is perhaps no field where long-run forecasting has wider ... More


The Limits to Compensation in the Financial Sector

Thomas Noe and H. Peyton Young

in Capital Failure: Rebuilding Trust in Financial Services

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2014
ISBN:
9780198712220
eISBN:
9780191780752
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198712220.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics, Economic Systems

Performance bonuses have become commonplace in financial institutions and now constitute a major part of employee compensation. Such practice followed academic work on principal-agent contracts, ... More


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