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Expected Utility Theory/Expected Value Theory

Larry S. Temkin

in Rethinking the Good: Moral Ideals and the Nature of Practical Reasoning

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199759446
eISBN:
9780199932214
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199759446.003.0008
Subject:
Philosophy, General, Moral Philosophy

The previous chapters offered a number of “impossibility” results. It was argued that certain deeply held views are incompatible, so that, seemingly, at least one of the views in question must be ... More


Introduction to Probability and Random Variables

M. Vidyasagar

in Hidden Markov Processes: Theory and Applications to Biology

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691133157
eISBN:
9781400850518
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691133157.003.0001
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

This chapter provides an introduction to probability and random variables. Probability theory is an attempt to formalize the notion of uncertainty in the outcome of an experiment. For instance, ... More


Supernumeration: Vagueness and Numbers

Peter Simons

in Cuts and Clouds: Vagueness, its Nature, & its Logic

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
May 2010
ISBN:
9780199570386
eISBN:
9780191722134
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199570386.003.0028
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics, Metaphysics/Epistemology

There is a notable discrepancy between philosophers and practitioners on approaches to vagueness. Philosophers almost all reject fuzzy logic and a majority accept some form of supervaluational ... More


Values and health risks

Bob Heyman

in Risk, Safety and Clinical Practice: Health care through the lens of risk

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
February 2010
ISBN:
9780198569008
eISBN:
9780191717499
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198569008.003.03
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

This chapter starts from the observation that a sense of adversity is bound into modern risk-thinking. Evoking risk conveys to the contemporary mind that a negatively valued outcome is causing ... More


Degree of Belief is Expected Truth Value

Nicholas J. J. Smith

in Cuts and Clouds: Vagueness, its Nature, & its Logic

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
May 2010
ISBN:
9780199570386
eISBN:
9780191722134
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199570386.003.0029
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics, Metaphysics/Epistemology

A number of authors have noted that vagueness engenders degrees of belief, but that these degrees of belief do not behave like subjective probabilities. So should we countenance two different kinds ... More


Behavior in the Face of Risk

John P. Burkett

in Microeconomics: Optimization, Experiments, and Behavior

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195189629
eISBN:
9780199850778
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195189629.003.0020
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter examines the factors that influence an individual's behavior in the face of risk. It analyzes the application of the expected value and expected utility theories in answering the ... More


The Database Calculation

John L. Pollock

in Thinking about Acting: Logical Foundations for Rational Decision Making

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195304817
eISBN:
9780199850907
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195304817.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind

The evaluative database provides efficient storage because it assumes defeasibly that values are additive, and hence the values of many compound features can be computed by summing the values of ... More


Economics of Risk

John P. Burkett

in Microeconomics: Optimization, Experiments, and Behavior

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195189629
eISBN:
9780199850778
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195189629.003.0019
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter examines the economics of risk and probability associated with choice. It discusses the development of probability concepts and the basic laws of probability. It explains the related ... More


Objections and Replies

Charles Goodman

in Consequences of Compassion: An Interpretation and Defense of Buddhist Ethics

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
May 2009
ISBN:
9780195375190
eISBN:
9780199871377
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195375190.003.0011
Subject:
Religion, Buddhism

This chapter considers and replies to various objections that could be raised against character consequentialism, both as an interpretation of Buddhist ethics and as a view in its own right. Keown’s ... More


The Elasticity of Trust: How to Promote Trust in the Arab Middle East and the United States

Iris Bohnet, Benedikt Herrmann, Mohamad Al-Ississ, Andrea Robbett, Khalid Al-Yahya, and Richard Zeckhauser

in Restoring Trust in Organizations and Leaders: Enduring Challenges and Emerging Answers

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199756087
eISBN:
9780199949571
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199756087.003.0008
Subject:
Business and Management, Organization Studies, Corporate Governance and Accountability

To trust is to risk. When we lend someone money, we make ourselves vulnerable, hoping that the borrower will reward our trust and return the money at a later stage, possibly with interest or a ... More


Orbitofrontal cortex processing: neurophysiology and neuroimaging

Edmund T. Rolls

in The Orbitofrontal Cortex

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
July 2019
ISBN:
9780198845997
eISBN:
9780191881237
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198845997.003.0003
Subject:
Neuroscience, Behavioral Neuroscience, Molecular and Cellular Systems

The functioning of the orbitofrontal cortex is described. It is shown that it receives information about what stimulus is present from the sensory pathways, and represents this in terms of its reward ... More


Questions of Formulation

Brad Hooker

in Ideal Code, Real World: A Rule-Consequentialist Theory of Morality

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199256570
eISBN:
9780191597701
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199256578.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

Argues that rule‐consequentialism should be formulated in terms of expected value rather than in terms of actual consequences. Also, argues that the theory should be formulated in terms of acceptance ... More


Reason and Consistency

Keith Lehrer

in Metamind

Published in print:
1990
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780198248507
eISBN:
9780191681141
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198248507.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Mind

It may be reasonable for a person to accept each statement in an inconsistent set because it is reasonable, though incorrect, for him to think the set of statements is consistent. Moreover, it may ... More


Maximizing Value and Acting Responsibly

Ingmar Persson

in From Morality to the End of Reason: An Essay on Rights, Reasons, and Responsibility

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
January 2014
ISBN:
9780199676552
eISBN:
9780191755811
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199676552.003.0011
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

Frank Jackson has presented an example which might seem to clinch the case in favour of the form of consequentialism which lays down that we ought to maximize expected rather than actual value. But ... More


The Aim of Rationality: Correctness

Ralph Wedgwood

in The Value of Rationality

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
September 2017
ISBN:
9780198802693
eISBN:
9780191841972
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198802693.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

It is proposed that rationality has an external goal—thinking as correctly as possible. (For example, perhaps believing as correctly as possible is being maximally confident of the truth, and ... More


A Problem for Credal Consequentialism

Michael Caie

in Epistemic Consequentialism

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
June 2018
ISBN:
9780198779681
eISBN:
9780191824739
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198779681.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Caie focuses on an epistemic utility theory picture of epistemic norms where epistemic utility functions measure the value of degrees of belief, and rationality consists in maximizing expected ... More


Probabilistic Numeracy, Financial Literacy, Sensitivity to Expected Value, and Risk Knowledge

Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, and Maggie E. Toplak

in The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780262034845
eISBN:
9780262336819
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262034845.003.0009
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter focuses on a set of subtests of the CART that are more knowledge dependent than are the subtests discussed in the previous chapters. Although these subtests do have processing ... More


Scalar goodness

Daniel Lassiter

in Graded Modality: Qualitative and Quantitative Perspectives

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
June 2017
ISBN:
9780198701347
eISBN:
9780191770616
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198701347.003.0007
Subject:
Linguistics, Semantics and Pragmatics, Computational Linguistics

This chapter turns to deontic concepts. I argue that goodness is an interval scale, and consider two interactions with disjunction that would enforce the validity of the Disjunctive Inference: ... More


Evidence Neutrality and the Moral Value of Information

Amanda Askell

in Effective Altruism: Philosophical Issues

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
October 2019
ISBN:
9780198841364
eISBN:
9780191881428
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198841364.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

In this chapter, Amanda Askell takes up the question of whether there is a case for favoring interventions whose effectiveness has stronger evidential support, when expected effectiveness is equal. ... More


Forecasting

Richard McCleary, David McDowall, and Bradley J. Bartos

in Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
May 2017
ISBN:
9780190661557
eISBN:
9780190661595
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190661557.003.0004
Subject:
Sociology, Methodology and Statistics

Chapter 4 downplays forecasting’s role in the design and analysis of time series experiments and emphasizes its potential abuses. While the “best” ARIMA model will outperform other forecasting models ... More


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