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The purpose of this book is to describe and explain the changes in electoral behaviour that occurred in six West-European countries in the second half of the twentieth century. Two alternative theoretical approaches are systematically tested in an attempt to explain these changes. The first approach is deduced from modernisation theory. Modernisation theory implies that over time, the explanatory power for electoral behaviour of more or less stable structural variables such as social class and religion will yield to more short-term factors. The second and alternative theoretical approach predicts that changes and variations in patterns of voting behaviour are not due to secular processes in voting behaviour, but to variations in the political-institutional context, both between countries and within countries between different elections. In contrast to much of the authoritative literature, chapter after chapter of this book shows that there is little empirical evidence supporting modernization theory. Electoral behaviour is primarily political behaviour that is shaped by the political context of elections as much as by autonomous processes in society. In this respect, not much has changed during the period covered. The political context was never irrelevant for voting behaviour. No matter how divided a society is in terms of religion and/or social class, as long as these differences are not politicised, voters cannot be mobilised on this basis. Also, if voters do not see the policy differences between the political parties competing for their votes — as was increasingly the case in the second half of the 1980s and the 1990s in some of the countries in this study — one should not be surprised to find low correlations between voters’ policy preferences and their party choice.

This book addresses electoral change, the reasons, and the consequences. By investigating heterogeneity of voting (part I) and complexity of voting and its context (part II) it shows that increasing heterogeneity is not arbitrary and unstructured. Heterogeneity of voting is rather an answer of voters to deal with increasing complexity of the context of elections—diversified social structures, increasing differentiation of political supply, increasing complexity of the information environment. By analysing the conditions of heterogeneity and showing that the calculus of voting becomes more and more conditional in terms of what voters regard as relevant criteria for vote choice, the book demonstrates that the new feature of electoral behavior is structured heterogeneity. The dimensions of differentiation of the electorate are cognitive capacity and the structure of individual information-acquisition systems. The book demonstrates that voters are rather on the move looking for appropriate answers to new complexities than on the run. The book mainly uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) and comparative data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). Cross-sectional analysis is complemented by long- and short-term dynamic analyses with panel data and comparative analyses.