Peter Mair
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295495
- eISBN:
- 9780191599804
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295499.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is the problem of party system change in western Europe, and its purpose, rather than to propose some ...
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This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is the problem of party system change in western Europe, and its purpose, rather than to propose some rigorous definition of it, is simply to identify some of the problems involved in the understanding of party system change, and, through this approach, to place some key questions on the agenda for future debate and future research. The discussion is presented in six sections: (1) Party Change versus Party System Change; (2) Party System Change; (3) Electoral Volatility and Cleavage Change –– a discussion of the role of ‘social’ cleavage change (resulting from changes in the cleavage structure or social make-up of support to individual parties) in electoral change and party system change in the context of Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on ‘the freezing of party systems’; (4) How Much Electoral Change?; (5) The Electoral Bias; and (6) Key Problems.Less
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is the problem of party system change in western Europe, and its purpose, rather than to propose some rigorous definition of it, is simply to identify some of the problems involved in the understanding of party system change, and, through this approach, to place some key questions on the agenda for future debate and future research. The discussion is presented in six sections: (1) Party Change versus Party System Change; (2) Party System Change; (3) Electoral Volatility and Cleavage Change –– a discussion of the role of ‘social’ cleavage change (resulting from changes in the cleavage structure or social make-up of support to individual parties) in electoral change and party system change in the context of Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on ‘the freezing of party systems’; (4) How Much Electoral Change?; (5) The Electoral Bias; and (6) Key Problems.
Peter Mair
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295495
- eISBN:
- 9780191599804
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295499.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is the first of three chapters on political party systems and structures of competition, and looks at electoral markets in Europe. It begins by clarifying the term ‘electoral markets’ in the ...
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This is the first of three chapters on political party systems and structures of competition, and looks at electoral markets in Europe. It begins by clarifying the term ‘electoral markets’ in the context of the chapter, noting first that the competition to be investigated is inter-party competition, which will arise when parties have a market in which to compete (i.e. when there are voters in competition), and is at least in part a function of the size of the electoral market. Second, it notes that when parties confront an electoral market, they have a choice of two not necessarily exclusive strategies –– defensive or expansive; and third, that the size of the markets in general, and the degree of electoral availability, is largely a function of the strength and pervasiveness of the relevant political identities. The first section of the chapter, Developments and Contrasts in Western Europe, looks at the history of the development of political parties in western Europe as a history of attempts to narrow the electoral market through the promotion and inculcation of mass political identities; it concludes that, other things being equal, polities characterized by the presence of strong identities are likely to be less competitive than those where they are not, and will, more precisely, tend to be more consensual. The next section of the chapter, ‘Electoral Markets and Consociational Democracy’, leads on naturally to a discussion of consociational democracies (which are plural societies) in western Europe, and this is followed. in ‘Small States and Large States’, by an examination of the differences in policy style in small states (which are largely consensual) and large states (which are adversarial, with high electoral volatility). The last section ‘Some Implications for the New East European Democracies’, applies the previous discussion to eastern Europe.Less
This is the first of three chapters on political party systems and structures of competition, and looks at electoral markets in Europe. It begins by clarifying the term ‘electoral markets’ in the context of the chapter, noting first that the competition to be investigated is inter-party competition, which will arise when parties have a market in which to compete (i.e. when there are voters in competition), and is at least in part a function of the size of the electoral market. Second, it notes that when parties confront an electoral market, they have a choice of two not necessarily exclusive strategies –– defensive or expansive; and third, that the size of the markets in general, and the degree of electoral availability, is largely a function of the strength and pervasiveness of the relevant political identities. The first section of the chapter, Developments and Contrasts in Western Europe, looks at the history of the development of political parties in western Europe as a history of attempts to narrow the electoral market through the promotion and inculcation of mass political identities; it concludes that, other things being equal, polities characterized by the presence of strong identities are likely to be less competitive than those where they are not, and will, more precisely, tend to be more consensual. The next section of the chapter, ‘Electoral Markets and Consociational Democracy’, leads on naturally to a discussion of consociational democracies (which are plural societies) in western Europe, and this is followed. in ‘Small States and Large States’, by an examination of the differences in policy style in small states (which are largely consensual) and large states (which are adversarial, with high electoral volatility). The last section ‘Some Implications for the New East European Democracies’, applies the previous discussion to eastern Europe.
Russell J. Dalton, Ian McAllister, and Martin P. Wattenberg
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253098
- eISBN:
- 9780191599026
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253099.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Assembles cross‐national data to demonstrate the behavioural consequences of partisan dealignment. Without the reinforcement of habitual party ties, more voters are waiting longer to decide for whom ...
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Assembles cross‐national data to demonstrate the behavioural consequences of partisan dealignment. Without the reinforcement of habitual party ties, more voters are waiting longer to decide for whom they will vote, and in the countries where ticket splitting is possible, more are dividing their party choices. Candidate‐centred politics appears to be on the rise, although this is much more pronounced in presidential than parliamentary systems, and signifying the different style of dealignment politics, participation in campaigns and volunteer work for political parties is decreasing. In short, partisan dealignment is transforming the relationship between some voters and political parties—a relationship that was once seen as an essential element in the process of representative government.Less
Assembles cross‐national data to demonstrate the behavioural consequences of partisan dealignment. Without the reinforcement of habitual party ties, more voters are waiting longer to decide for whom they will vote, and in the countries where ticket splitting is possible, more are dividing their party choices. Candidate‐centred politics appears to be on the rise, although this is much more pronounced in presidential than parliamentary systems, and signifying the different style of dealignment politics, participation in campaigns and volunteer work for political parties is decreasing. In short, partisan dealignment is transforming the relationship between some voters and political parties—a relationship that was once seen as an essential element in the process of representative government.
Peter Mair
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295495
- eISBN:
- 9780191599804
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295499.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties, and discusses myths of electoral change and the survival of the ‘old’ parties in western Europe. It starts by ...
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This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties, and discusses myths of electoral change and the survival of the ‘old’ parties in western Europe. It starts by presenting the three main sources of evidence (trends in aggregate electoral volatility; evidence of the mobilization and success of new parties; (imputed) evidence of the decline of party and the emergence of new forms of interest mediation) that are usually cited against the contemporary applicability of the Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on the ‘freezing of party systems’, showing that each of these three patterns of change is more or less rooted in varieties of electoral change. The author then contends in the rest of the chapter that this popular image of electoral change is largely mythical, and lacking in foundation (bearing little or no relation to the actual patterns of electoral alignments in contemporary Europe). It is argued that the empirical evidence suggests that European electorates continue to be stable, that alignments continue to be relatively frozen, and that the old parties continue to survive; in other words, that much of what Lipset and Rokkan contended in the late 1960s concerning freezing, ageing, and stability, still continues to be valid today. The argument is presented in four sections: (1) Levels of Electoral Volatility; (2) The Survival of Traditional Parties; (3) What Sustains the Myths of Electoral Change?; and (4) The Neglect of Party.Less
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties, and discusses myths of electoral change and the survival of the ‘old’ parties in western Europe. It starts by presenting the three main sources of evidence (trends in aggregate electoral volatility; evidence of the mobilization and success of new parties; (imputed) evidence of the decline of party and the emergence of new forms of interest mediation) that are usually cited against the contemporary applicability of the Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on the ‘freezing of party systems’, showing that each of these three patterns of change is more or less rooted in varieties of electoral change. The author then contends in the rest of the chapter that this popular image of electoral change is largely mythical, and lacking in foundation (bearing little or no relation to the actual patterns of electoral alignments in contemporary Europe). It is argued that the empirical evidence suggests that European electorates continue to be stable, that alignments continue to be relatively frozen, and that the old parties continue to survive; in other words, that much of what Lipset and Rokkan contended in the late 1960s concerning freezing, ageing, and stability, still continues to be valid today. The argument is presented in four sections: (1) Levels of Electoral Volatility; (2) The Survival of Traditional Parties; (3) What Sustains the Myths of Electoral Change?; and (4) The Neglect of Party.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199534661
- eISBN:
- 9780191715921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on ...
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The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on conceptual constraints: What do we already know about the situation, even before collecting any data? Eliminate the conceptually forbidden areas where data points could not possibly occur, and locate the conceptual anchor points where the value of x imposes a unique value of y. Once this is done, few options may remain for how y can depend on x–unless you tell yourself “It can't be that simple.” A low R 2 may still confirm a predictive model, and a high one may work to reject it.Less
The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on conceptual constraints: What do we already know about the situation, even before collecting any data? Eliminate the conceptually forbidden areas where data points could not possibly occur, and locate the conceptual anchor points where the value of x imposes a unique value of y. Once this is done, few options may remain for how y can depend on x–unless you tell yourself “It can't be that simple.” A low R 2 may still confirm a predictive model, and a high one may work to reject it.
Ian Holliday
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199240562
- eISBN:
- 9780191600296
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199240566.003.0009
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Spain has made a number of experiments with democracy, but only since the mid‐1970s has this been successful. At that time, strenuous efforts were made to ensure that political parties would come ...
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Spain has made a number of experiments with democracy, but only since the mid‐1970s has this been successful. At that time, strenuous efforts were made to ensure that political parties would come forward, and as a result the new democracy had two key aspects: the creation of synthetic parties (in the sense that they are supported more from above than below), and the building of a parties state. The introductory part of the chapter discusses these changes and also has a section looking at the institutional framework that had such a shaping effect on party politics; this discusses the electoral system, and the rules governing parliamentary group organization and party finance. The next three sections cover the same topics as those in the other country case studies in the book, and examine party legitimacy (party membership, electoral turnout and volatility, popular assessments, party–voter ties, and evaluating party legitimacy), party organizational strength (parliamentary party organization, mass party organization, party finance, ‘goods in kind’ received by parties, and evaluating party organizational strength), and the systemic functionality of parties (governance, political recruitment and patronage, interest articulation and aggregation, political participation, political communication and education, and evaluating the systemic functionality of parties). The concluding section assesses the viability of Spain's parties state and gives a comparative analysis of its experience of democracy.Less
Spain has made a number of experiments with democracy, but only since the mid‐1970s has this been successful. At that time, strenuous efforts were made to ensure that political parties would come forward, and as a result the new democracy had two key aspects: the creation of synthetic parties (in the sense that they are supported more from above than below), and the building of a parties state. The introductory part of the chapter discusses these changes and also has a section looking at the institutional framework that had such a shaping effect on party politics; this discusses the electoral system, and the rules governing parliamentary group organization and party finance. The next three sections cover the same topics as those in the other country case studies in the book, and examine party legitimacy (party membership, electoral turnout and volatility, popular assessments, party–voter ties, and evaluating party legitimacy), party organizational strength (parliamentary party organization, mass party organization, party finance, ‘goods in kind’ received by parties, and evaluating party organizational strength), and the systemic functionality of parties (governance, political recruitment and patronage, interest articulation and aggregation, political participation, political communication and education, and evaluating the systemic functionality of parties). The concluding section assesses the viability of Spain's parties state and gives a comparative analysis of its experience of democracy.
Paul Webb
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199240562
- eISBN:
- 9780191600296
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199240566.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
For thirty years following the end of the Second World War, it was orthodox to regard Britain as having one of the most stable and party‐oriented political systems in the Western world—parties ...
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For thirty years following the end of the Second World War, it was orthodox to regard Britain as having one of the most stable and party‐oriented political systems in the Western world—parties penetrated state and society so significantly that it was virtually impossible to conceive of political life in the country without thinking first and foremost of party political life. However, since the middle of the 1970s, old certainties have been challenged by a continuing and multi‐dimensional debate about the transformation of British party politics. This challenge is predicated on a number of interconnected developments, which include: the apparent growth of electoral volatility; the spread of partisan and class dealignment; the emergence of nationalist cleavages in Scotland and Wales, which have threatened to fragment the national political culture; the erosion of two‐party electoral domination; and the growing chorus of criticism levelled at the damaging iniquities of the electoral system and the adversarial ‘winner‐takes‐all’ political mentality that is closely associated with it. Despite this, the single‐member plurality (SMP) (first‐past‐the‐post) electoral system continues to ensure that single‐party majority governments remain the norm. This chapter looks at what such changes imply for the general status of parties in the country, and is arranged in the same three sections as the other country case studies in the book; these examine the popular legitimacy of British political parties, their organizational strength, and their systemic functionalities (in governance and political recruitment, interest articulation and aggregation, political communication, and political participation).Less
For thirty years following the end of the Second World War, it was orthodox to regard Britain as having one of the most stable and party‐oriented political systems in the Western world—parties penetrated state and society so significantly that it was virtually impossible to conceive of political life in the country without thinking first and foremost of party political life. However, since the middle of the 1970s, old certainties have been challenged by a continuing and multi‐dimensional debate about the transformation of British party politics. This challenge is predicated on a number of interconnected developments, which include: the apparent growth of electoral volatility; the spread of partisan and class dealignment; the emergence of nationalist cleavages in Scotland and Wales, which have threatened to fragment the national political culture; the erosion of two‐party electoral domination; and the growing chorus of criticism levelled at the damaging iniquities of the electoral system and the adversarial ‘winner‐takes‐all’ political mentality that is closely associated with it. Despite this, the single‐member plurality (SMP) (first‐past‐the‐post) electoral system continues to ensure that single‐party majority governments remain the norm. This chapter looks at what such changes imply for the general status of parties in the country, and is arranged in the same three sections as the other country case studies in the book; these examine the popular legitimacy of British political parties, their organizational strength, and their systemic functionalities (in governance and political recruitment, interest articulation and aggregation, political communication, and political participation).
Camille Bedock
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- June 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780198779582
- eISBN:
- 9780191824630
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198779582.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The aim of this fourth chapter is to understand the determinants of reforms of core democratic rules through a macro-analysis taking into account both long-term and short-term factors of change. Two ...
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The aim of this fourth chapter is to understand the determinants of reforms of core democratic rules through a macro-analysis taking into account both long-term and short-term factors of change. Two dependent variables are examined: first, the total number of reforms adopted per country between 1990 and 2010; and second, the number of institutional reforms adopted by legislature. In the long term, polities with a lack of political support and majoritarian polities experience more reforms. Focusing on short-term determinants, the results show that rising electoral uncertainty, as measured by volatility, along with the changing preferences of actors in power as measured by the advent of new forces in government, lead to the adoption of greater numbers of institutional reforms in following legislatures.Less
The aim of this fourth chapter is to understand the determinants of reforms of core democratic rules through a macro-analysis taking into account both long-term and short-term factors of change. Two dependent variables are examined: first, the total number of reforms adopted per country between 1990 and 2010; and second, the number of institutional reforms adopted by legislature. In the long term, polities with a lack of political support and majoritarian polities experience more reforms. Focusing on short-term determinants, the results show that rising electoral uncertainty, as measured by volatility, along with the changing preferences of actors in power as measured by the advent of new forces in government, lead to the adoption of greater numbers of institutional reforms in following legislatures.
Hans Rattinger and Elena Wiegand
- Published in print:
- 2014
- Published Online:
- June 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780199662630
- eISBN:
- 9780191756191
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199662630.003.0013
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter describes and examines the German electorate in terms of long-term as well as short-term individual volatility. The results suggest that voters change their minds less frequently during ...
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This chapter describes and examines the German electorate in terms of long-term as well as short-term individual volatility. The results suggest that voters change their minds less frequently during an election campaign than between three subsequent federal elections. The stability and strength of party identification serve—not surprisingly—as massive stabilizing factors of the vote decision, while changed attitudes towards candidates and issues do contribute to the explanation of individual volatility. Furthermore, the findings clarify that most swing voters do not oscillate wildly between all possible parties, indecision, or abstention, but rather have a limited choice set of usually two parties.Less
This chapter describes and examines the German electorate in terms of long-term as well as short-term individual volatility. The results suggest that voters change their minds less frequently during an election campaign than between three subsequent federal elections. The stability and strength of party identification serve—not surprisingly—as massive stabilizing factors of the vote decision, while changed attitudes towards candidates and issues do contribute to the explanation of individual volatility. Furthermore, the findings clarify that most swing voters do not oscillate wildly between all possible parties, indecision, or abstention, but rather have a limited choice set of usually two parties.
Suhas Palshikar, K.C. Suri, and Yogendra Yadav
- Published in print:
- 2014
- Published Online:
- June 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780198099178
- eISBN:
- 9780199082988
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198099178.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Indian Politics
This book deals with the different aspects of electoral politics in Indian states during the period 2008-2012 and the nature of the relationship between between electoral politics in the states and ...
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This book deals with the different aspects of electoral politics in Indian states during the period 2008-2012 and the nature of the relationship between between electoral politics in the states and at the all-India level. It reviews the changes in the system of party competition after the rise of a more stable bi-polar contest in Indian elections. While the first phase of the post-Congress polity during the 1990s saw the defeat of the incumbent parties in election after election, the next phase which this chapter examines is marked by a fair chance for the incumbent party to retain political power. The chapter shows that the dramatic features of the post-Congress polity, namely the participatory upsurge, political uncertainly and the emergence of new parties primarily on the basis of social identities, have been either subdued or have acquired a routine existence. Such a condition is described in this chapter as normalization of electoral competition.Less
This book deals with the different aspects of electoral politics in Indian states during the period 2008-2012 and the nature of the relationship between between electoral politics in the states and at the all-India level. It reviews the changes in the system of party competition after the rise of a more stable bi-polar contest in Indian elections. While the first phase of the post-Congress polity during the 1990s saw the defeat of the incumbent parties in election after election, the next phase which this chapter examines is marked by a fair chance for the incumbent party to retain political power. The chapter shows that the dramatic features of the post-Congress polity, namely the participatory upsurge, political uncertainly and the emergence of new parties primarily on the basis of social identities, have been either subdued or have acquired a routine existence. Such a condition is described in this chapter as normalization of electoral competition.
Suhas Palshikar, K C Suri, and Yogendra Yadav (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2014
- Published Online:
- June 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780198099178
- eISBN:
- 9780199082988
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198099178.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Indian Politics
The political storm that swept Indian politics in the 1990s consolidated the post-Congress polity, a condition in which the Indian National Congress was no longer in a position to set the national ...
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The political storm that swept Indian politics in the 1990s consolidated the post-Congress polity, a condition in which the Indian National Congress was no longer in a position to set the national agenda and ceased to be the central pole against which all other political parties were arrayed. Ever since, the states have emerged as the principal domain where electoral contests are fought, lost, and won. Focusing on electoral outcomes in twenty-four states between 2008 and 2013, this volume explores the complex dynamics of India’s electoral politics. The post-2008 phase is crucial as it saw the Congress adapt itself to the compulsions of coalition politics and survive as one of the competitors in the electoral arena—contrary to its erstwhile infallible standing. Focusing on both Parliamentary elections of 2009 and the Assembly elections in each state during the period, this book investigates how the two impact each other, and the broader patterns that emerge from their interaction. The state-specific accounts show that over the past few years the unsettling features of the post-Congress polity have waned leading to a condition which may be termed as normalization of the electoral competition. With the aid of rich post-election surveys, this work outlines the socio-economic features, political manoeuvres, and political causality that are manifest in the various patterns of party competition across Indian states.Less
The political storm that swept Indian politics in the 1990s consolidated the post-Congress polity, a condition in which the Indian National Congress was no longer in a position to set the national agenda and ceased to be the central pole against which all other political parties were arrayed. Ever since, the states have emerged as the principal domain where electoral contests are fought, lost, and won. Focusing on electoral outcomes in twenty-four states between 2008 and 2013, this volume explores the complex dynamics of India’s electoral politics. The post-2008 phase is crucial as it saw the Congress adapt itself to the compulsions of coalition politics and survive as one of the competitors in the electoral arena—contrary to its erstwhile infallible standing. Focusing on both Parliamentary elections of 2009 and the Assembly elections in each state during the period, this book investigates how the two impact each other, and the broader patterns that emerge from their interaction. The state-specific accounts show that over the past few years the unsettling features of the post-Congress polity have waned leading to a condition which may be termed as normalization of the electoral competition. With the aid of rich post-election surveys, this work outlines the socio-economic features, political manoeuvres, and political causality that are manifest in the various patterns of party competition across Indian states.
Lise Storm
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- May 2018
- ISBN:
- 9781474415286
- eISBN:
- 9781474438551
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Edinburgh University Press
- DOI:
- 10.3366/edinburgh/9781474415286.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Middle Eastern Politics
This chapter examines parties and party system change across the MENA countries since December 2010. The discussion begins with a brief overview of party systems in the region on the eve of the Arab ...
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This chapter examines parties and party system change across the MENA countries since December 2010. The discussion begins with a brief overview of party systems in the region on the eve of the Arab Spring, thereby providing a quick introduction to the selected cases as well as a benchmark against which to measure change. Party system change is determined via indicators such as the effective number of parties, party system fragmentation, electoral volatility and the entry of new parties into the system. The analysis of the indicators of party system change is coupled with a discussion of empirical data on the political environment during and in the immediate aftermath of the elections, including issues such as regime classification, rotation of power, coalition structures, prohibited parties, and societal cleavages. The author explains how - despite the fact that some old regimes fell and elections were held - the traditionally dominant or hegemonic political parties stayed preeminent in a number of MENA countries. Finally, this chapter shows what party system change tells us about the prospects for democracy some five years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring.Less
This chapter examines parties and party system change across the MENA countries since December 2010. The discussion begins with a brief overview of party systems in the region on the eve of the Arab Spring, thereby providing a quick introduction to the selected cases as well as a benchmark against which to measure change. Party system change is determined via indicators such as the effective number of parties, party system fragmentation, electoral volatility and the entry of new parties into the system. The analysis of the indicators of party system change is coupled with a discussion of empirical data on the political environment during and in the immediate aftermath of the elections, including issues such as regime classification, rotation of power, coalition structures, prohibited parties, and societal cleavages. The author explains how - despite the fact that some old regimes fell and elections were held - the traditionally dominant or hegemonic political parties stayed preeminent in a number of MENA countries. Finally, this chapter shows what party system change tells us about the prospects for democracy some five years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring.
K.C. Suri, P. Narasimha Rao, and V. Anji Reddy
- Published in print:
- 2014
- Published Online:
- June 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780198099178
- eISBN:
- 9780199082988
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198099178.003.0025
- Subject:
- Political Science, Indian Politics
This chapter analyses the factors that contributed to the limited electoral success of the Congress party in the 2009 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Three factors seem to stand out as important ...
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This chapter analyses the factors that contributed to the limited electoral success of the Congress party in the 2009 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Three factors seem to stand out as important ones: (1) favourable voter evaluations of the performance of the central government as well as the State government, both run by the Congress party; (2) failure of any one opposition party or alliance of parties to present a credible alternative to the Congress party; and (3) the ability of the Congress party to retain its traditional support base. Over the past few years the state of Andhra Pradesh saw a quick evaporation of the apparent stability that marked the government and politics of the state during the years 2004-2008, partly due to agitations for and against the division of the State and the tragic death of its powerful Chief Minister that resulted in a condition of high voltage politics, radical political shifts, and increased electoral volatility.Less
This chapter analyses the factors that contributed to the limited electoral success of the Congress party in the 2009 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Three factors seem to stand out as important ones: (1) favourable voter evaluations of the performance of the central government as well as the State government, both run by the Congress party; (2) failure of any one opposition party or alliance of parties to present a credible alternative to the Congress party; and (3) the ability of the Congress party to retain its traditional support base. Over the past few years the state of Andhra Pradesh saw a quick evaporation of the apparent stability that marked the government and politics of the state during the years 2004-2008, partly due to agitations for and against the division of the State and the tragic death of its powerful Chief Minister that resulted in a condition of high voltage politics, radical political shifts, and increased electoral volatility.
Gideon Rahat and Ofer Kenig
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- July 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780198808008
- eISBN:
- 9780191845796
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198808008.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Democratization, Comparative Politics
The chapter examines nine of the chosen twelve indicators of party change. This group of nine contains widely used indicators and some that have been proposed and examined only by a few scholars. All ...
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The chapter examines nine of the chosen twelve indicators of party change. This group of nine contains widely used indicators and some that have been proposed and examined only by a few scholars. All these indicators examine the direct and the indirect links of parties with society. The indirect, mediated links include relationships between the extra-parliamentary organization and the “party in government” (party background of ministers and members of parliament); between the party and its members; and between parties and interest groups. The direct links with voters include voter attitudes toward parties (party identification), patterns of voter behavior (electoral volatility, electoral turnout), and the resulting party system (party system fragmentation, continuity of parties/emergence of new parties). The significance of each indicator is explained, its advantages and limitations are examined, and the trends over time for each one are presented.Less
The chapter examines nine of the chosen twelve indicators of party change. This group of nine contains widely used indicators and some that have been proposed and examined only by a few scholars. All these indicators examine the direct and the indirect links of parties with society. The indirect, mediated links include relationships between the extra-parliamentary organization and the “party in government” (party background of ministers and members of parliament); between the party and its members; and between parties and interest groups. The direct links with voters include voter attitudes toward parties (party identification), patterns of voter behavior (electoral volatility, electoral turnout), and the resulting party system (party system fragmentation, continuity of parties/emergence of new parties). The significance of each indicator is explained, its advantages and limitations are examined, and the trends over time for each one are presented.
Michael Marsh, David M. Farrell, and Gail McElroy
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- April 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780198744030
- eISBN:
- 9780191804021
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198744030.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This introductory chapter provides an overview of the state of electoral behaviour research in the Republic of Ireland, locating the Irish National Election Study (INES) and Irish elections in ...
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This introductory chapter provides an overview of the state of electoral behaviour research in the Republic of Ireland, locating the Irish National Election Study (INES) and Irish elections in comparative context. The chapter starts by setting the scene in terms of the 2011 election, an election that was seen by many at the time as an electoral earthquake. Was this election as radical as it appeared at first or did we see a culmination of longer-term trends as evidenced in the previous two general elections of 2002 and 2007? The subsequent section introduces the INES, a study that has tracked Irish voter trends across the three elections from 2002 to 2011 and that forms the basis for the chapters that follow. The third section of the chapter sets out the main themes that are developed in the remaining chapters of this volume.Less
This introductory chapter provides an overview of the state of electoral behaviour research in the Republic of Ireland, locating the Irish National Election Study (INES) and Irish elections in comparative context. The chapter starts by setting the scene in terms of the 2011 election, an election that was seen by many at the time as an electoral earthquake. Was this election as radical as it appeared at first or did we see a culmination of longer-term trends as evidenced in the previous two general elections of 2002 and 2007? The subsequent section introduces the INES, a study that has tracked Irish voter trends across the three elections from 2002 to 2011 and that forms the basis for the chapters that follow. The third section of the chapter sets out the main themes that are developed in the remaining chapters of this volume.
