Peter Mair
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295495
- eISBN:
- 9780191599804
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295499.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is the problem of party system change in western Europe, and its purpose, rather than to propose some ...
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This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is the problem of party system change in western Europe, and its purpose, rather than to propose some rigorous definition of it, is simply to identify some of the problems involved in the understanding of party system change, and, through this approach, to place some key questions on the agenda for future debate and future research. The discussion is presented in six sections: (1) Party Change versus Party System Change; (2) Party System Change; (3) Electoral Volatility and Cleavage Change –– a discussion of the role of ‘social’ cleavage change (resulting from changes in the cleavage structure or social make-up of support to individual parties) in electoral change and party system change in the context of Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on ‘the freezing of party systems’; (4) How Much Electoral Change?; (5) The Electoral Bias; and (6) Key Problems.Less
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is the problem of party system change in western Europe, and its purpose, rather than to propose some rigorous definition of it, is simply to identify some of the problems involved in the understanding of party system change, and, through this approach, to place some key questions on the agenda for future debate and future research. The discussion is presented in six sections: (1) Party Change versus Party System Change; (2) Party System Change; (3) Electoral Volatility and Cleavage Change –– a discussion of the role of ‘social’ cleavage change (resulting from changes in the cleavage structure or social make-up of support to individual parties) in electoral change and party system change in the context of Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on ‘the freezing of party systems’; (4) How Much Electoral Change?; (5) The Electoral Bias; and (6) Key Problems.
David Denemark
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199257683
- eISBN:
- 9780191600241
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019925768X.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Explores several of the factors that significantly affected the transition of New Zealand's political system from a pluralitarian (extreme majoritarian) system famous for its tranquil efficacy to an ...
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Explores several of the factors that significantly affected the transition of New Zealand's political system from a pluralitarian (extreme majoritarian) system famous for its tranquil efficacy to an MMP (mixed‐member proportional) system renowned for its vengeful reformism. These factors include: (1) dealignment; (2) minor party under‐representation; (3) the under‐representation of minority groups in an era of increasing multiculturalism; (4) radical, unpopular economic reform by successive Labour and National party governments; and (5) the parliamentary ‘other side’ of the calculus—the provision of both a Royal Commission, which highlighted representational failings of the Westminster system while legitimating MMP specifically as an alternative electoral system, and indicative and binding referendums, which gave New Zealand's voters the final say in determining the fate of the country's electoral system. The extent to which these issues were important in vote choices of electors in the 1993 referendum is also considered. A last section considers the overall explanations for New Zealand's turn to MMP, and the chapter includes a table that shows a timeline of electoral change in New Zealand since 1985 (the period immediately preceding the reform of 1993) and an appendix giving a sketch of the MMP system in New Zealand.Less
Explores several of the factors that significantly affected the transition of New Zealand's political system from a pluralitarian (extreme majoritarian) system famous for its tranquil efficacy to an MMP (mixed‐member proportional) system renowned for its vengeful reformism. These factors include: (1) dealignment; (2) minor party under‐representation; (3) the under‐representation of minority groups in an era of increasing multiculturalism; (4) radical, unpopular economic reform by successive Labour and National party governments; and (5) the parliamentary ‘other side’ of the calculus—the provision of both a Royal Commission, which highlighted representational failings of the Westminster system while legitimating MMP specifically as an alternative electoral system, and indicative and binding referendums, which gave New Zealand's voters the final say in determining the fate of the country's electoral system. The extent to which these issues were important in vote choices of electors in the 1993 referendum is also considered. A last section considers the overall explanations for New Zealand's turn to MMP, and the chapter includes a table that shows a timeline of electoral change in New Zealand since 1985 (the period immediately preceding the reform of 1993) and an appendix giving a sketch of the MMP system in New Zealand.
Jacques Thomassen
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- October 2005
- ISBN:
- 9780199273218
- eISBN:
- 9780191602962
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199273219.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This introductory chapter begins with a description of main purpose of this book, which is to describe and explain the electoral changes in Western Europe in the second half of the 20th century. It ...
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This introductory chapter begins with a description of main purpose of this book, which is to describe and explain the electoral changes in Western Europe in the second half of the 20th century. It then discusses political change in Europe, modernization and political change, declining voter turnout, and party choice. An overview of the chapters in this volume is presented.Less
This introductory chapter begins with a description of main purpose of this book, which is to describe and explain the electoral changes in Western Europe in the second half of the 20th century. It then discusses political change in Europe, modernization and political change, declining voter turnout, and party choice. An overview of the chapters in this volume is presented.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780199287741
- eISBN:
- 9780191713408
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Democratization
When choosing an electoral system, the main tradeoff is between decisiveness of government and representation of minority views. With simple electoral systems, their average effect can be predicted. ...
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When choosing an electoral system, the main tradeoff is between decisiveness of government and representation of minority views. With simple electoral systems, their average effect can be predicted. With complex electoral systems, the ability to predict their actual workings is lost. Refraining from changing electoral laws frequently allows an understanding to develop of how the electoral system works.Less
When choosing an electoral system, the main tradeoff is between decisiveness of government and representation of minority views. With simple electoral systems, their average effect can be predicted. With complex electoral systems, the ability to predict their actual workings is lost. Refraining from changing electoral laws frequently allows an understanding to develop of how the electoral system works.
Jack Vowles
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199539390
- eISBN:
- 9780191715761
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199539390.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
There are two interpretations of electoral system change in New Zealand; one, that it was a result of social and political changes generating a ‘systemic failure’ of the former ...
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There are two interpretations of electoral system change in New Zealand; one, that it was a result of social and political changes generating a ‘systemic failure’ of the former single-member-plurality (SMP) electoral system, and thus expressing the intentions of key actors: a combination of evolution and design. The alternative interpretation assumes the process to have been contingent or even accidental. In determinist mode, this chapter argues that as a necessary but not sufficient condition ‘systemic failure’ set the agenda. In addition, failure went beyond the electoral system that was only one element of New Zealand's highly majoritarian institutional arrangements. In the electoral arena, multi-party politics had generated a partisan bias that parties and electors could not correct adequately by coordination. With necessary conditions set, actors' intentions combined with various contingencies provide sufficient explanations for change. Unintentional or accidental events may have accelerated the process and shaped how it happened. But pressure for change ran deep, and in alternative counterfactual scenarios other contingencies could have tipped the balance. Indeed, a probabilistic rather than deterministic explanation may better fit the process. Rational choice theories of party interests explain part of the change. But perceptions of the need to enhance the normative performance of New Zealand democracy by reducing its majoritarian elements were, if anything, more important, bringing ‘systemic failure’ into the picture as a justification for change beyond its initial agenda-setting role.Less
There are two interpretations of electoral system change in New Zealand; one, that it was a result of social and political changes generating a ‘systemic failure’ of the former single-member-plurality (SMP) electoral system, and thus expressing the intentions of key actors: a combination of evolution and design. The alternative interpretation assumes the process to have been contingent or even accidental. In determinist mode, this chapter argues that as a necessary but not sufficient condition ‘systemic failure’ set the agenda. In addition, failure went beyond the electoral system that was only one element of New Zealand's highly majoritarian institutional arrangements. In the electoral arena, multi-party politics had generated a partisan bias that parties and electors could not correct adequately by coordination. With necessary conditions set, actors' intentions combined with various contingencies provide sufficient explanations for change. Unintentional or accidental events may have accelerated the process and shaped how it happened. But pressure for change ran deep, and in alternative counterfactual scenarios other contingencies could have tipped the balance. Indeed, a probabilistic rather than deterministic explanation may better fit the process. Rational choice theories of party interests explain part of the change. But perceptions of the need to enhance the normative performance of New Zealand democracy by reducing its majoritarian elements were, if anything, more important, bringing ‘systemic failure’ into the picture as a justification for change beyond its initial agenda-setting role.
Peter Mair
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295495
- eISBN:
- 9780191599804
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295499.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties, and discusses myths of electoral change and the survival of the ‘old’ parties in western Europe. It starts by ...
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This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties, and discusses myths of electoral change and the survival of the ‘old’ parties in western Europe. It starts by presenting the three main sources of evidence (trends in aggregate electoral volatility; evidence of the mobilization and success of new parties; (imputed) evidence of the decline of party and the emergence of new forms of interest mediation) that are usually cited against the contemporary applicability of the Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on the ‘freezing of party systems’, showing that each of these three patterns of change is more or less rooted in varieties of electoral change. The author then contends in the rest of the chapter that this popular image of electoral change is largely mythical, and lacking in foundation (bearing little or no relation to the actual patterns of electoral alignments in contemporary Europe). It is argued that the empirical evidence suggests that European electorates continue to be stable, that alignments continue to be relatively frozen, and that the old parties continue to survive; in other words, that much of what Lipset and Rokkan contended in the late 1960s concerning freezing, ageing, and stability, still continues to be valid today. The argument is presented in four sections: (1) Levels of Electoral Volatility; (2) The Survival of Traditional Parties; (3) What Sustains the Myths of Electoral Change?; and (4) The Neglect of Party.Less
This is the second of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties, and discusses myths of electoral change and the survival of the ‘old’ parties in western Europe. It starts by presenting the three main sources of evidence (trends in aggregate electoral volatility; evidence of the mobilization and success of new parties; (imputed) evidence of the decline of party and the emergence of new forms of interest mediation) that are usually cited against the contemporary applicability of the Lipset–Rokkan ‘law’ on the ‘freezing of party systems’, showing that each of these three patterns of change is more or less rooted in varieties of electoral change. The author then contends in the rest of the chapter that this popular image of electoral change is largely mythical, and lacking in foundation (bearing little or no relation to the actual patterns of electoral alignments in contemporary Europe). It is argued that the empirical evidence suggests that European electorates continue to be stable, that alignments continue to be relatively frozen, and that the old parties continue to survive; in other words, that much of what Lipset and Rokkan contended in the late 1960s concerning freezing, ageing, and stability, still continues to be valid today. The argument is presented in four sections: (1) Levels of Electoral Volatility; (2) The Survival of Traditional Parties; (3) What Sustains the Myths of Electoral Change?; and (4) The Neglect of Party.
Peter Mair
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295495
- eISBN:
- 9780191599804
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295499.003.0009
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is the third of three chapters on political party systems and structures of competition, and presents an overall review. In the first section, Approaches to the Classification of Party Systems: ...
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This is the third of three chapters on political party systems and structures of competition, and presents an overall review. In the first section, Approaches to the Classification of Party Systems: A Review it looks at the principal existing approaches to the classification of party systems, pointing to both their limits and possibilities when applied within comparative analysis. It then goes on in the second section, Party Systems and the Competition for Government, to underline the importance of understanding the structure of competition in any given party system, since in many ways the whole notion of a party system is centred on the assumption that there exists a stable structure of competition. Structures of competition can be seen to be either closed (and predictable) or open (and unpredictable), depending on the patterns of alternation in government, the degree of innovation or persistence in processes of government formation, and the range of parties gaining access to government. The emphasis in the third section, Party Systems and Electoral Outcomes, is on the need to distinguish between processes of electoral change on the one hand, and changes in party systems and the structures of competition on the other, a distinction which also allows the possibility of situations in which electoral change is the consequence rather than the cause of party system change.Less
This is the third of three chapters on political party systems and structures of competition, and presents an overall review. In the first section, Approaches to the Classification of Party Systems: A Review it looks at the principal existing approaches to the classification of party systems, pointing to both their limits and possibilities when applied within comparative analysis. It then goes on in the second section, Party Systems and the Competition for Government, to underline the importance of understanding the structure of competition in any given party system, since in many ways the whole notion of a party system is centred on the assumption that there exists a stable structure of competition. Structures of competition can be seen to be either closed (and predictable) or open (and unpredictable), depending on the patterns of alternation in government, the degree of innovation or persistence in processes of government formation, and the range of parties gaining access to government. The emphasis in the third section, Party Systems and Electoral Outcomes, is on the need to distinguish between processes of electoral change on the one hand, and changes in party systems and the structures of competition on the other, a distinction which also allows the possibility of situations in which electoral change is the consequence rather than the cause of party system change.
Peter Mair
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198295495
- eISBN:
- 9780191599804
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198295499.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is the first of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is continuities, changes, and the vulnerability of the party in western Europe, and the aim is to ...
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This is the first of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is continuities, changes, and the vulnerability of the party in western Europe, and the aim is to emphasize the link between party organization or styles of organizational intervention and electoral (de)stabilization. The discussion is presented in seven sections: (1) What Parties Are and What Parties Do –– respectively, their historic political identity and their contemporary appeals, with the latter often bearing little relation to historic identities; (2) Left, Right, and Policy Competition; (3) Left, Right, and Voter Alignments; (4) A Crisis of Party? (5) Catch-All Politics and Party Vulnerability; (6) Organizational Change and Electoral Change; and (7) Organizational Change: A Research Agenda.Less
This is the first of three chapters on persistence and change in political parties. Its theme is continuities, changes, and the vulnerability of the party in western Europe, and the aim is to emphasize the link between party organization or styles of organizational intervention and electoral (de)stabilization. The discussion is presented in seven sections: (1) What Parties Are and What Parties Do –– respectively, their historic political identity and their contemporary appeals, with the latter often bearing little relation to historic identities; (2) Left, Right, and Policy Competition; (3) Left, Right, and Voter Alignments; (4) A Crisis of Party? (5) Catch-All Politics and Party Vulnerability; (6) Organizational Change and Electoral Change; and (7) Organizational Change: A Research Agenda.
Russell J. Dalton
- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198294719
- eISBN:
- 9780191599361
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198294719.003.0013
- Subject:
- Political Science, Reference
Political events and democratization have created emerging questions for the analysis of comparative politics. This provides opportunities to test the role of political culture, voting preferences, ...
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Political events and democratization have created emerging questions for the analysis of comparative politics. This provides opportunities to test the role of political culture, voting preferences, and the link between political norms and behaviour prior to stable democracies in equilibrium, on which formerly research has focused. Major advances in comparative political behaviour reflect the individualization of electoral behaviour in value change and modernization, and the contribution of political culture due to patterns of democratization.Less
Political events and democratization have created emerging questions for the analysis of comparative politics. This provides opportunities to test the role of political culture, voting preferences, and the link between political norms and behaviour prior to stable democracies in equilibrium, on which formerly research has focused. Major advances in comparative political behaviour reflect the individualization of electoral behaviour in value change and modernization, and the contribution of political culture due to patterns of democratization.
Roderic Ai Camp
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- January 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780199742851
- eISBN:
- 9780199866298
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199742851.003.0011
- Subject:
- Political Science, Democratization
Political reforms which impact on the electoral process can have long-standing and unintended consequences on the characteristics of political leadership, on the gatekeepers of that leadership, and ...
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Political reforms which impact on the electoral process can have long-standing and unintended consequences on the characteristics of political leadership, on the gatekeepers of that leadership, and on the homogeneity of leadership under a democratic electoral model. The peculiarities of a legislative system, particularly in the way that it is structured, can unquestionably slow down the processes that democratic electoral change typically engenders, by determining the type of leaders selected and who does the selecting. Democratic change, measured by numerous background variables of the leading politicians, can be extraordinarily radical in scope. Institutions play an important role in the backgrounds of political leadership, particularly in their credentials and their recruitment. In spite of these important influences produced by perceptions of a politician's career experiences and accomplishments, non-institutional relationships based on familial linkages are extensive in Mexico, potentially exerting greater influence on their selection than those experiences or credentials which are publicly visible and concrete. Democracy is enhancing an increase in politicians' experiences and credentials typically associated with a democratic process, including negotiating and bargaining skills; yet democracy also has increased party militancy significantly and consequently the level of partisanship has expanded, not only among governors, but among politicians holding important national positions, including members of congress.Less
Political reforms which impact on the electoral process can have long-standing and unintended consequences on the characteristics of political leadership, on the gatekeepers of that leadership, and on the homogeneity of leadership under a democratic electoral model. The peculiarities of a legislative system, particularly in the way that it is structured, can unquestionably slow down the processes that democratic electoral change typically engenders, by determining the type of leaders selected and who does the selecting. Democratic change, measured by numerous background variables of the leading politicians, can be extraordinarily radical in scope. Institutions play an important role in the backgrounds of political leadership, particularly in their credentials and their recruitment. In spite of these important influences produced by perceptions of a politician's career experiences and accomplishments, non-institutional relationships based on familial linkages are extensive in Mexico, potentially exerting greater influence on their selection than those experiences or credentials which are publicly visible and concrete. Democracy is enhancing an increase in politicians' experiences and credentials typically associated with a democratic process, including negotiating and bargaining skills; yet democracy also has increased party militancy significantly and consequently the level of partisanship has expanded, not only among governors, but among politicians holding important national positions, including members of congress.
Anthony F. Heath and Roger Jeffery (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- January 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780197264515
- eISBN:
- 9780191734403
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- British Academy
- DOI:
- 10.5871/bacad/9780197264515.001.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Politics, Social Movements and Social Change
India's society, economy, and polity have been transformed at a gathering pace since the early 1990s, and India's growing role on the world stage makes it imperative to understand the roots and ...
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India's society, economy, and polity have been transformed at a gathering pace since the early 1990s, and India's growing role on the world stage makes it imperative to understand the roots and consequences of these changes. The eleven chapters in this interdisciplinary volume review the growing body of data that help to make sense of these changes and to understand their likely significance. The volume provides systematic, macro-level studies of economic, demographic, social, and political change in India but also micro-level analyses of the detailed mechanisms ‘on the ground’ of how Indian society is being re-shaped. This combination of micro- and macro-level analyses thus gives a picture not only of national trends but also of the underlying processes of change. Each of the chapters showcases the fruits of previously unpublished scholarship across the social sciences.Less
India's society, economy, and polity have been transformed at a gathering pace since the early 1990s, and India's growing role on the world stage makes it imperative to understand the roots and consequences of these changes. The eleven chapters in this interdisciplinary volume review the growing body of data that help to make sense of these changes and to understand their likely significance. The volume provides systematic, macro-level studies of economic, demographic, social, and political change in India but also micro-level analyses of the detailed mechanisms ‘on the ground’ of how Indian society is being re-shaped. This combination of micro- and macro-level analyses thus gives a picture not only of national trends but also of the underlying processes of change. Each of the chapters showcases the fruits of previously unpublished scholarship across the social sciences.
Bernhard Weßels, Hans Rattinger, Sigrid Roßteutscher, and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2014
- Published Online:
- June 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780199662630
- eISBN:
- 9780191756191
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199662630.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This book addresses electoral change, the reasons, and the consequences. By investigating heterogeneity of voting (part I) and complexity of voting and its context (part II) it shows that increasing ...
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This book addresses electoral change, the reasons, and the consequences. By investigating heterogeneity of voting (part I) and complexity of voting and its context (part II) it shows that increasing heterogeneity is not arbitrary and unstructured. Heterogeneity of voting is rather an answer of voters to deal with increasing complexity of the context of elections—diversified social structures, increasing differentiation of political supply, increasing complexity of the information environment. By analysing the conditions of heterogeneity and showing that the calculus of voting becomes more and more conditional in terms of what voters regard as relevant criteria for vote choice, the book demonstrates that the new feature of electoral behavior is structured heterogeneity. The dimensions of differentiation of the electorate are cognitive capacity and the structure of individual information-acquisition systems. The book demonstrates that voters are rather on the move looking for appropriate answers to new complexities than on the run. The book mainly uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) and comparative data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). Cross-sectional analysis is complemented by long- and short-term dynamic analyses with panel data and comparative analyses.Less
This book addresses electoral change, the reasons, and the consequences. By investigating heterogeneity of voting (part I) and complexity of voting and its context (part II) it shows that increasing heterogeneity is not arbitrary and unstructured. Heterogeneity of voting is rather an answer of voters to deal with increasing complexity of the context of elections—diversified social structures, increasing differentiation of political supply, increasing complexity of the information environment. By analysing the conditions of heterogeneity and showing that the calculus of voting becomes more and more conditional in terms of what voters regard as relevant criteria for vote choice, the book demonstrates that the new feature of electoral behavior is structured heterogeneity. The dimensions of differentiation of the electorate are cognitive capacity and the structure of individual information-acquisition systems. The book demonstrates that voters are rather on the move looking for appropriate answers to new complexities than on the run. The book mainly uses data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) and comparative data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). Cross-sectional analysis is complemented by long- and short-term dynamic analyses with panel data and comparative analyses.
Thomas M. Holbrook
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- August 2016
- ISBN:
- 9780190269128
- eISBN:
- 9780190632809
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269128.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics, Democratization
This book looks at change in party fortunes in presidential elections since 1972, documenting the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in party support in the states. It finds that the ...
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This book looks at change in party fortunes in presidential elections since 1972, documenting the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in party support in the states. It finds that the Democrats do not have a “lock” on the Electoral College, but that their position has improved dramatically over the past forty years in a number of formerly competitive or Republican-leaning states in the Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest. Republican candidates have made many fewer gains, mostly improving their position in “misplaced,” formerly Democratic states, such as Kentucky and West Virginia, or in already deeply Republican states in the Plains and Mountain West. The book looks at the ways that changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the state electorates, internal (state to state) and external (foreign born) migratory patterns, and changes in other key demographic and political characteristics drive these changes. Additionally, it explores the ways in which increasing partisan polarization at the national level has altered group-based party linkages and contributed to changes in party support at the state level. These factors, along with an increasingly inefficient distribution of Republican votes, have converted what was once a Republican edge in electoral votes to an advantage for Democratic presidential candidates.Less
This book looks at change in party fortunes in presidential elections since 1972, documenting the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in party support in the states. It finds that the Democrats do not have a “lock” on the Electoral College, but that their position has improved dramatically over the past forty years in a number of formerly competitive or Republican-leaning states in the Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest. Republican candidates have made many fewer gains, mostly improving their position in “misplaced,” formerly Democratic states, such as Kentucky and West Virginia, or in already deeply Republican states in the Plains and Mountain West. The book looks at the ways that changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the state electorates, internal (state to state) and external (foreign born) migratory patterns, and changes in other key demographic and political characteristics drive these changes. Additionally, it explores the ways in which increasing partisan polarization at the national level has altered group-based party linkages and contributed to changes in party support at the state level. These factors, along with an increasingly inefficient distribution of Republican votes, have converted what was once a Republican edge in electoral votes to an advantage for Democratic presidential candidates.
Camille Bedock
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- June 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780198779582
- eISBN:
- 9780191824630
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198779582.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This theoretical chapter presents the existing contributions in order to enable understanding of the determinants of democratic reforms, but also the processes leading to reform in established ...
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This theoretical chapter presents the existing contributions in order to enable understanding of the determinants of democratic reforms, but also the processes leading to reform in established democracies. It focuses, first, on the sets of incentives and obstacles to change of the institutions: political crisis, political instability, and the state of the pre-existing institutional system. On the other hand, the research in this field has confirmed the existence of several barriers to change, the importance of taking the roles of complexity and uncertainty into account, and how the type of reform and the type of process leading to reform (or non-reform) are intrinsically linked. Second, this chapter shows that authors often fall into traps, of which there are several, and these mainly derive from the absence of cross-national and multidimensional data on institutional change: that reforms are rare, mainly self-interested, and tend to happen as isolated events.Less
This theoretical chapter presents the existing contributions in order to enable understanding of the determinants of democratic reforms, but also the processes leading to reform in established democracies. It focuses, first, on the sets of incentives and obstacles to change of the institutions: political crisis, political instability, and the state of the pre-existing institutional system. On the other hand, the research in this field has confirmed the existence of several barriers to change, the importance of taking the roles of complexity and uncertainty into account, and how the type of reform and the type of process leading to reform (or non-reform) are intrinsically linked. Second, this chapter shows that authors often fall into traps, of which there are several, and these mainly derive from the absence of cross-national and multidimensional data on institutional change: that reforms are rare, mainly self-interested, and tend to happen as isolated events.
Gillian Peele and John Francis (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- May 2017
- ISBN:
- 9781784991531
- eISBN:
- 9781526120946
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Manchester University Press
- DOI:
- 10.7228/manchester/9781784991531.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
This introductory chapter provides an overview of the key themes of the book. It analyses David Cameron’s strategy for rebuilding Conservative electoral appeal and the evolution of his modernisation ...
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This introductory chapter provides an overview of the key themes of the book. It analyses David Cameron’s strategy for rebuilding Conservative electoral appeal and the evolution of his modernisation strategy from his election as leader in 2005 to the Conservative victory in the general election of 2015. It explores the difficulties associated with modernising a political party, notably disunity over its future direction. It sets Cameron’s efforts to renew the Conservative Party against profound changes in British politics, especially declining support for the two major parties and the growing strategic influence of smaller parties such as UKIP. Finally the chapter introduces the different perspectives of the various authors and highlights their contribution to the analysis.Less
This introductory chapter provides an overview of the key themes of the book. It analyses David Cameron’s strategy for rebuilding Conservative electoral appeal and the evolution of his modernisation strategy from his election as leader in 2005 to the Conservative victory in the general election of 2015. It explores the difficulties associated with modernising a political party, notably disunity over its future direction. It sets Cameron’s efforts to renew the Conservative Party against profound changes in British politics, especially declining support for the two major parties and the growing strategic influence of smaller parties such as UKIP. Finally the chapter introduces the different perspectives of the various authors and highlights their contribution to the analysis.
Rory Costello
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2019
- ISBN:
- 9781526122643
- eISBN:
- 9781526138989
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Manchester University Press
- DOI:
- 10.7228/manchester/9781526122643.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter presents the first dedicated study of party attachment in Ireland in the wake of the economic crisis. Previous research shows that party identification has historically been an important ...
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This chapter presents the first dedicated study of party attachment in Ireland in the wake of the economic crisis. Previous research shows that party identification has historically been an important factor in Irish voting behaviour, though – much like in other democracies – it began to decline from the 1980s onwards. This chapter examines how party attachment has evolved in recent elections. The core question it seeks to answer is whether the electoral turbulence in 2011 and 2016 was simply a symptom of a fundamentally dealigned electorate, or whether we are witnessing a realignment in Irish politics. In other words, has the number of floating voters increased in the wake of the crisis, or have people begun to form new party attachments that are likely to shape elections in the future? The analysis shows that while party attachments were ruptured in 2011 (most notably so in the case of Fianna Fáil), in 2016, by contrast, partisanship increased, and there were some interesting trends among young voters in particular, with many of them beginning to form new allegiances.Less
This chapter presents the first dedicated study of party attachment in Ireland in the wake of the economic crisis. Previous research shows that party identification has historically been an important factor in Irish voting behaviour, though – much like in other democracies – it began to decline from the 1980s onwards. This chapter examines how party attachment has evolved in recent elections. The core question it seeks to answer is whether the electoral turbulence in 2011 and 2016 was simply a symptom of a fundamentally dealigned electorate, or whether we are witnessing a realignment in Irish politics. In other words, has the number of floating voters increased in the wake of the crisis, or have people begun to form new party attachments that are likely to shape elections in the future? The analysis shows that while party attachments were ruptured in 2011 (most notably so in the case of Fianna Fáil), in 2016, by contrast, partisanship increased, and there were some interesting trends among young voters in particular, with many of them beginning to form new allegiances.
David M. Willumsen
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- August 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780198805434
- eISBN:
- 9780191843501
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198805434.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Analysing six waves of parliamentary surveys in Sweden, this chapter discusses the variation in the extent to which MPs have a reason to vote against their party based on policy preferences alone, ...
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Analysing six waves of parliamentary surveys in Sweden, this chapter discusses the variation in the extent to which MPs have a reason to vote against their party based on policy preferences alone, and how this varies over time. The chapter argues that while preference homogeneity within parties consistently across time explains a substantial share of unity in Sweden, the parliamentary parties are not ideologically homogeneous enough to explain the voting unity observed, confirming the findings of the previous chapter. Analysing the drivers of attitudes to party unity, and confirming the findings of the previous chapter, the chapter finds that the most credible explanation of the very high levels of unity in the Riksdag is that MPs voluntarily choose to vote the party line due to the long-term benefits of doing so. The chapter then analyses around 200 answers to an open-ended survey question, confirming the findings from the quantitative analysis.Less
Analysing six waves of parliamentary surveys in Sweden, this chapter discusses the variation in the extent to which MPs have a reason to vote against their party based on policy preferences alone, and how this varies over time. The chapter argues that while preference homogeneity within parties consistently across time explains a substantial share of unity in Sweden, the parliamentary parties are not ideologically homogeneous enough to explain the voting unity observed, confirming the findings of the previous chapter. Analysing the drivers of attitudes to party unity, and confirming the findings of the previous chapter, the chapter finds that the most credible explanation of the very high levels of unity in the Riksdag is that MPs voluntarily choose to vote the party line due to the long-term benefits of doing so. The chapter then analyses around 200 answers to an open-ended survey question, confirming the findings from the quantitative analysis.
Giedo Jansen, Geoffrey Evans, and Nan Dirk de Graaf
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- May 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780199663996
- eISBN:
- 9780191745140
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199663996.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Studies that explain class voting have often focused on ‘bottom-up” social factors, but paid little attention to ‘top-down’ political factors. In this chapter, we argue that party positions on ...
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Studies that explain class voting have often focused on ‘bottom-up” social factors, but paid little attention to ‘top-down’ political factors. In this chapter, we argue that party positions on left-right ideology affect the strength of class voting. We test this thesis by estimating the impact of Left-Right party positions on the class-vote association through a Two-Step Hierarchical analysis of pooled data from Australia, the United States and 13 countries in Western-Europe (1960-2005) supplemented with data from the Comparative Manifesto Project. Although there is a general trend for class voting to decline over time, partially accounted for by the impact of education, we find that most variation in class voting does not take the form of a linear decline. The ideological positions of left-wing parties alone do not have any effect, but the polarization of parties along the left-right dimension is associated with substantially higher levels of class voting.Less
Studies that explain class voting have often focused on ‘bottom-up” social factors, but paid little attention to ‘top-down’ political factors. In this chapter, we argue that party positions on left-right ideology affect the strength of class voting. We test this thesis by estimating the impact of Left-Right party positions on the class-vote association through a Two-Step Hierarchical analysis of pooled data from Australia, the United States and 13 countries in Western-Europe (1960-2005) supplemented with data from the Comparative Manifesto Project. Although there is a general trend for class voting to decline over time, partially accounted for by the impact of education, we find that most variation in class voting does not take the form of a linear decline. The ideological positions of left-wing parties alone do not have any effect, but the polarization of parties along the left-right dimension is associated with substantially higher levels of class voting.
Nan Dirk de Graaf, Giedo Jansen, and Ariana Need
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- May 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780199663996
- eISBN:
- 9780191745140
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199663996.003.0009
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This chapter investigates whether changes in religious and class voting in the Netherlands can be interpreted by social and political factors. From the social perspective we focus on compositional ...
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This chapter investigates whether changes in religious and class voting in the Netherlands can be interpreted by social and political factors. From the social perspective we focus on compositional changes, education, changes in the class structure, and religious integration. From the political perspective we examine the impact of merging political parties and changes in party positions. Employing Election Surveys (1971–2006) and Manifesto-data, reveals that the rise of the class of social-cultural specialists is important for understanding changes in the class–vote relationship. Although party positions are relevant they do little to explain the decline in class-based voting. Weakening religious integration largely explains the decline of political boundaries between non-religious voters and Catholics and Calvinists. After taking party positions into account the effect of the CDA-merger no longer reduced religious based voting, suggesting that the merger resulted in a revised ideological choice set facing voters. Furthermore, religious voting increases when traditional moral issues in manifestos are emphasized.Less
This chapter investigates whether changes in religious and class voting in the Netherlands can be interpreted by social and political factors. From the social perspective we focus on compositional changes, education, changes in the class structure, and religious integration. From the political perspective we examine the impact of merging political parties and changes in party positions. Employing Election Surveys (1971–2006) and Manifesto-data, reveals that the rise of the class of social-cultural specialists is important for understanding changes in the class–vote relationship. Although party positions are relevant they do little to explain the decline in class-based voting. Weakening religious integration largely explains the decline of political boundaries between non-religious voters and Catholics and Calvinists. After taking party positions into account the effect of the CDA-merger no longer reduced religious based voting, suggesting that the merger resulted in a revised ideological choice set facing voters. Furthermore, religious voting increases when traditional moral issues in manifestos are emphasized.
Thomas Hennessey, Máire Braniff, James W. McAuley, Jonathan Tonge, and Sophie A. Whiting
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- February 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780198794387
- eISBN:
- 9780191835889
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198794387.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, UK Politics
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) was the dominant party in Northern Ireland from the 1920s until the end of the twentieth century. The twenty-first century has been much more of a struggle. The UUP ...
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The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) was the dominant party in Northern Ireland from the 1920s until the end of the twentieth century. The twenty-first century has been much more of a struggle. The UUP was punished, not rewarded, by many in the Protestant Unionist British community for conceding too much to Irish nationalists in the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. Those concerned about the deal defected to the more militant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The story of the UUP during the peace process and in the decades since the 1998 Agreement is examined in subsequent chapters. The volume draws upon the first-ever dataset on UUP members constructed by the authors to examine who belongs to the UUP, explore what they think of their party and others, and assess their views on the political changes which have seen their party come under pressure.Less
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) was the dominant party in Northern Ireland from the 1920s until the end of the twentieth century. The twenty-first century has been much more of a struggle. The UUP was punished, not rewarded, by many in the Protestant Unionist British community for conceding too much to Irish nationalists in the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. Those concerned about the deal defected to the more militant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The story of the UUP during the peace process and in the decades since the 1998 Agreement is examined in subsequent chapters. The volume draws upon the first-ever dataset on UUP members constructed by the authors to examine who belongs to the UUP, explore what they think of their party and others, and assess their views on the political changes which have seen their party come under pressure.
