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The Failures of Forecasting

John Kay

in The Business of Economics

Published in print:
1996
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198292227
eISBN:
9780191596520
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198292228.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

Using data on previous forecasts, this widely influential 1995 FT article criticizes the reliability and usefulness of economic forecasts. Contrary to the widespread belief that economists always ... More


Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Lawrence R. Klein (ed.)

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

One of the most important, and visible, things economists do is to forecast what will happen in the economy in the future. Each year, a number of different groups in the United States use their own ... More


New Methods for Using Monthly Data to Improve Forecast Accuracy

E. Philip Howrey

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0008
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

Econometric forecasters continually seek ways to increase forecast accuracy. As new data are released, the residuals of forecasting models are examined for evidence of structural change and equations ... More


Comparing Macroeconomic Model Forecasts under Common Assumptions

Stephen K. McNees

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

Economic forecasts differ because forecasters use different macroeconomic models. However, even if everyone used the same model, all forecasts would not be identical. Most forecasts reflect a complex ... More


The Anatomy of Economic Policy Making in the 1970s: ‘The Railway Timetables’

Douglas Wass

in Decline to Fall: The Making of British Macro-economic Policy and the 1976 IMF Crisis

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
May 2008
ISBN:
9780199534746
eISBN:
9780191715884
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534746.003.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic History

This chapter goes through the process by which macro-economic policy in the UK was made in the post-War years, and in particular, in the 1970s. It looks at the methodology of aggregate demand ... More


Economic Forecasts and Fiscal Projections

Maurice Wright

in Japan's Fiscal Crisis: The Ministry of Finance and the Politics of Public Spending, 1975-2000

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780199250530
eISBN:
9780191697937
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199250530.003.0014
Subject:
Political Science, Political Economy

In Japan, the general context of budget-making, up to the Cabinet's approval of the Ministry of Finance's draft budgets for both the General Account Budget and the Fiscal Investment Loan Programme in ... More


14 Forecasting from nonlinear models

Timo Teräsvirta, Dag Tjøstheim, and W. J. Granger

in Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
May 2011
ISBN:
9780199587148
eISBN:
9780191595387
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199587148.003.0014
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

A major purpose of nonlinear models is forecasting. This often requires numerical techniques, and a few alternatives are considered. There are also cases in which analytical forecasts are available, ... More


Model Comparisons and Appraisals 1

Robert J. Shiller

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0012
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

The Model Comparison Seminar has produced some striking findings. The differences in the properties of the major macroeconometric models are much bigger than one might have expected given their ... More


A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models

Ray C. Fair and Lewis S. Alexander

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter compares the predictive accuracy of the Michigan and Fair econometric models using the method developed in Ray Fair. These models are compared to each other and to an eighth-order ... More


The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting

Werner Reichmann

in Uncertain Futures: Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
August 2018
ISBN:
9780198820802
eISBN:
9780191860430
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198820802.003.0005
Subject:
Business and Management, Political Economy

How do economic forecasters produce legitimate and credible predictions of the economic future, despite most of the economy being transmutable and indeterminate? Using data from a case study of ... More


Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States: A New Round of Model Comparisons

F. Gerard Adams and Lawrence R. Klein

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter focuses on the response of the various econometric models to a number of alternatively specified external shocks. Altogether, 11 model groups supplied simulation results for the model ... More


Uses and Abuses of Economics

John Kay

in The Business of Economics

Published in print:
1996
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198292227
eISBN:
9780191596520
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198292228.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

The first part of this chapter explains why economics has enjoyed more success in answering microeconomic questions rather than macroeconomic ones. The second part responds to a number of attacks on ... More


Economic Models

John Kay

in The Business of Economics

Published in print:
1996
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198292227
eISBN:
9780191596520
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198292228.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

Building bigger and more elaborate models will neither help us arrive at more realistic descriptions of the world nor help make our predictions more accurate. Mathematical models are just a more ... More


Economists as Forecasters: Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson, 1970–4

Robert A. Cord

in Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
August 2016
ISBN:
9780198704324
eISBN:
9780191773761
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198704324.003.0041
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic History, Macro- and Monetary Economics

This chapter examines the economic forecasting records of Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson for the US economy during the five years from 1970 to 1974, a period chiefly characterized by Nixonomics. ... More


Economies of the Future

Jamie L. Pietruska

in Looking Forward: Prediction and Uncertainty in Modern America

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
May 2018
ISBN:
9780226475004
eISBN:
9780226509150
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226509150.003.0005
Subject:
History, American History: 19th Century

This chapter focuses on long-range economic forecasts and ideas about predictability in the work of commodity price forecaster Samuel Benner, utopian novelist Edward Bellamy, and meteorologist Henry ... More


Looking Forward: Prediction and Uncertainty in Modern America

Jamie L. Pietruska

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
May 2018
ISBN:
9780226475004
eISBN:
9780226509150
Item type:
book
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226509150.001.0001
Subject:
History, American History: 19th Century

This book is a history of forecasting in the United States from the 1860s to the 1920s that examines how methods of prediction and ideas about predictability changed as Americans reckoned with new ... More


The World Economy from 1999 to 2007: Bubble, Bubble, Toil, and Trouble

Rob Vos

in The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
April 2018
ISBN:
9780198817345
eISBN:
9780191858864
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198817345.003.0008
Subject:
Economics and Finance, International, Development, Growth, and Environmental

Between 1999 and 2007, global economic trends were characterized by the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, the bubble and burst of the dot-com crisis, and a global recovery which triggered a ... More


Macroeconomic scenarios for South Africa: 2013–25

Ben Smit

in The Oxford Companion to the Economics of South Africa

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
March 2015
ISBN:
9780199689248
eISBN:
9780191789731
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199689248.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

This chapter examines macroeconomic forecasts for South Africa up to the year 2025. The uncertainties governing economic projections, particularly over longer-term horizons, motivate the ... More


Ambiguity, Equivocation, and Economics

Kaushik Basu

in An Economist's Miscellany: From the Groves of Academe to the Slopes of Raisina Hill

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2020
ISBN:
9780190120894
eISBN:
9780190990114
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190120894.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

This brief chapter, written in the backdrop of the global financial crisis and the start of the Great Recession, lays out a broad philosophical approach to dealing with policy failures and the need ... More


China is headed for a financial crisis and a sharp slowdown

Nouriel Roubini and Adam Wolfe

in The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
December 2014
ISBN:
9780199678204
eISBN:
9780191788635
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199678204.003.0033
Subject:
Economics and Finance, South and East Asia

This chapter predicts that China is heading towards an investment bust from which its financial system is unlikely to escape unscathed. Consumption is expected to hold up rather well through this ... More


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