E. Philip Howrey
- Published in print:
- 1991
- Published Online:
- October 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780195057720
- eISBN:
- 9780199854967
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0008
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Econometrics
Econometric forecasters continually seek ways to increase forecast accuracy. As new data are released, the residuals of forecasting models are examined for evidence of structural change and equations ...
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Econometric forecasters continually seek ways to increase forecast accuracy. As new data are released, the residuals of forecasting models are examined for evidence of structural change and equations are modified if necessary. Several of the participants in the Model Comparison Seminar have recently investigated alternative methods for using monthly data in a systematic way to adjust forecasts produced by quarterly models. These initial studies are reviewed in this chapter and some illustrative results are presented. It begins with a review of some of the implications of temporal aggregation for the specification and estimation of models and their use in economic forecasting. This review is intended to provide motivation for the use of high-frequency (monthly) data in forecasting economic aggregates, as well as to indicate some of the difficulties that are involved. The chapter concludes with a presentation of some illustrative results obtained using the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States economy.Less
Econometric forecasters continually seek ways to increase forecast accuracy. As new data are released, the residuals of forecasting models are examined for evidence of structural change and equations are modified if necessary. Several of the participants in the Model Comparison Seminar have recently investigated alternative methods for using monthly data in a systematic way to adjust forecasts produced by quarterly models. These initial studies are reviewed in this chapter and some illustrative results are presented. It begins with a review of some of the implications of temporal aggregation for the specification and estimation of models and their use in economic forecasting. This review is intended to provide motivation for the use of high-frequency (monthly) data in forecasting economic aggregates, as well as to indicate some of the difficulties that are involved. The chapter concludes with a presentation of some illustrative results obtained using the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States economy.
Mia de Kuijper
- Published in print:
- 2009
- Published Online:
- February 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195171631
- eISBN:
- 9780199871353
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195171631.003.0006
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics
In Chapter 5 the new economic paradigm for the 21st century—a paradigm that is consistent with the emergence of perfect information—is introduced. This chapter demonstrates that due to the second ...
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In Chapter 5 the new economic paradigm for the 21st century—a paradigm that is consistent with the emergence of perfect information—is introduced. This chapter demonstrates that due to the second inevitable trend, in transparency several aspects of mainstream economics need to be revisited. For instance, in transparency the two conditions for a general equilibrium cannot coexist, hence a general equilibrium is not possible. Also, the often-used simplifying assumption of normal distributions is not valid. Extraordinary profits and profit power, in contrast, are being proven to be valid economic concepts. In transparency, interdependence of decision making will turn a group into a network. For instance, an economic aggregate, such as “buyers,” becomes a network. The question is what kind of network. Powerlaw distributions—and powerlaw networks—can provide a new paradigm under certain conditions. These four conditions for powerlaw network dynamics in economic aggregates are derived in this chapter. This is the basis for the economics of perfect information, powerlaw economics.Less
In Chapter 5 the new economic paradigm for the 21st century—a paradigm that is consistent with the emergence of perfect information—is introduced. This chapter demonstrates that due to the second inevitable trend, in transparency several aspects of mainstream economics need to be revisited. For instance, in transparency the two conditions for a general equilibrium cannot coexist, hence a general equilibrium is not possible. Also, the often-used simplifying assumption of normal distributions is not valid. Extraordinary profits and profit power, in contrast, are being proven to be valid economic concepts. In transparency, interdependence of decision making will turn a group into a network. For instance, an economic aggregate, such as “buyers,” becomes a network. The question is what kind of network. Powerlaw distributions—and powerlaw networks—can provide a new paradigm under certain conditions. These four conditions for powerlaw network dynamics in economic aggregates are derived in this chapter. This is the basis for the economics of perfect information, powerlaw economics.
