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Actuarial Methods in the Criminal Law

in Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age

This chapter first presents four cases which illustrate one of the most striking trends in law enforcement and punishment at the turn of the twenty-first century: actuarial methods have grown ... More

This chapter first presents four cases which illustrate one of the most striking trends in law enforcement and punishment at the turn of the twenty-first century: actuarial methods have grown exponentially in the criminal justice system. Risk assessment, algorithms, and criminal profiles now permeate the field of crime and punishment. The same trend is present in a number of other criminal law contexts, including the increased popularity of selective incapacitation, use of risk assessment for setting bail, predictions of future dangerousness in capital sentencing, and the notorious three-strikes laws passed in California and elsewhere. The chapter reviews the actuarial debate and argues that the problems that plague racial profiling are problems about criminal profiling more generally. Actuarial methods in the criminal justice field produce hidden distortions with significant costs for society. This is followed by discussions of how the actuarial debate is about the mathematics of criminal profiling, identifiable social costs, and epistemic distortions. An overview of the subsequent chapters is also presented.Less

The Proliferation of Actuarial Methods in Punishing and Policing

in Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age

This chapter documents the ascendance of the actuarial paradigm, focusing on a wide range of predictive tools in criminal law and punishment. It explores the use of actuarial methods in the larger ... More

This chapter documents the ascendance of the actuarial paradigm, focusing on a wide range of predictive tools in criminal law and punishment. It explores the use of actuarial methods in the larger context of selective incapacitation and the resulting reliance on sentencing guidelines that mete out punishment based on prior criminal history. It also describes a gradual shift in law enforcement toward the increased use of criminal profiling—from the early instances of hijacker profiles developed in the 1960s to the more frequent use in the 1970s of drug-courier and alien-smuggler profiles and the more frequent use of profiling in the last quarter of the twentieth century. The historical trajectory reflects the breadth of the actuarial paradigm—from preliminary investigation, through sentencing, and ultimately to the prison-release decision.Less

The Mathematics of Actuarial Prediction: The Illusion of Efficiency

in Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age

One of the strongest arguments for the use of actuarial methods is the economic argument based on deterrence and efficiency: assuming that people respond rationally to the costs and incentives of ... More

One of the strongest arguments for the use of actuarial methods is the economic argument based on deterrence and efficiency: assuming that people respond rationally to the costs and incentives of policing, using predictions based on group offending rates will result in greater detection of crime. By maximizing the detection of crime, law enforcement will deter the higher-offending targeted population. This is the most efficient allocation of law enforcement resources. A number of able economists are developing models of criminal profiling and demonstrating that using actuarial methods may be an efficient way to engage in law enforcement—in fact, that profiling based on group offending rates may be the most efficient way to allocate police resources. This chapter analyzes the mathematics of profiling, with special attention to the assumption of equal elasticity at the heart of the economic models of racial profiling.Less

The Ratchet Effect: An Overlooked Social Cost

in Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age

This chapter explains how the use of actuarial methods will have a distortive effect on the targeted population that will operate as a ratchet over time. The distortion occurs when profiling produces ... More

This chapter explains how the use of actuarial methods will have a distortive effect on the targeted population that will operate as a ratchet over time. The distortion occurs when profiling produces a supervised population that is disproportionate to the distribution of offending by racial group. The ratchet effect is discussed in the policing context, in the sentencing context, and in terms of social costs.Less

The U.K. National DNA Database

in Truth Machine: The Contentious History of DNA Fingerprinting

This chapter focuses on the National DNA Database (NDNAD) of England and Wales, the oldest and largest national DNA intelligence database, the daily operation of which is managed by FSS Ltd., a ... More

This chapter focuses on the National DNA Database (NDNAD) of England and Wales, the oldest and largest national DNA intelligence database, the daily operation of which is managed by FSS Ltd., a former executive agency of the Home Office. The DNA profiles at the NDNAD are from three different sources: casework profiles from unknown persons, criminal justice profiles, and elimination or volunteer profiles.Less

Flying While Arab: Racial Profiling in Counterterrorism

Jack Glaser

in Suspect Race: Causes and Consequences of Racial Profiling

A review of the history of terrorism and counterterrorism in the United States is provided, with an emphasis on profiling. Differences and similarities between drug war and counterterrorism profiling ... More

A review of the history of terrorism and counterterrorism in the United States is provided, with an emphasis on profiling. Differences and similarities between drug war and counterterrorism profiling are discussed. Evidence of racial profiling in counterterrorism includes disparate registration and investigation activities for people in the United States of Middle Eastern and South Asian origins. The Justice Department’s exception for national security in its otherwise blanket ban on racial profiling in federal law enforcement has the ironic effect of institutionalizing the practice. Discussion is provided of the precedent for domestic terrorism to be perpetrated by White Christians, and one analysis strongly suggests that profiling allows more plots for these types of groups to become operational instead of just aspirational. Law enforcement experts agree that profiling in counterterrorism (as in other domains) may be counterproductive because it alienates people whose cooperation is helpful to investigations.Less

A Case Study on Racial Profiling

in Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age

In the actuarial field, the case of racial profiling on the highways has received perhaps the most attention from social scientists, legal scholars, and public policymakers. As a result, it is the ... More

In the actuarial field, the case of racial profiling on the highways has received perhaps the most attention from social scientists, legal scholars, and public policymakers. As a result, it is the subfield with the most abundant empirical data and economic models. This chapter asks: Does racial profiling on the roads reduce the overall incidence of drug possession and drug trafficking on the nation's highways? Does it produce a ratchet effect on the profiled population? And does it distort our shared conceptions of just punishment?Less