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Predicting Confirmation Bias

Martha Whitesmith

in Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9781474466349
eISBN:
9781474491112
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:
10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, Security Studies

Chapter five provides details of the meta-analyses into confirmation bias. It will show that the analytical conditions of diagnostic weighting of initial information, consistency of information, ... More


The Promise and Challenges of Introducing Tree Thinking into Evolution Education

Kefyn M. Catley, Laura R. Novick, and Daniel J. Funk

in Evolution Challenges: Integrating Research and Practice in Teaching and Learning about Evolution

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
September 2012
ISBN:
9780199730421
eISBN:
9780199949557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199730421.003.0005
Subject:
Psychology, Developmental Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Engaging in tree thinking (using phylogenetic diagrams to interpret and infer historical processes) is a prerequisite for understanding macroevolution. Tree thinking has become increasingly important ... More


The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1

Martha Whitesmith

in Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9781474466349
eISBN:
9781474491112
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:
10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Security Studies

Chapter three provides details of an experimental study conducted in 2016 to provide an evaluation of the efficacy of ACH in mitigating the cognitive biases of serial position effects and ... More


Using Evolutionary Thinking to Cut Across Disciplines: The Example of the Argumentative Theory of Reasoning

Hugo Mercier

in Comparative Decision Making

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780199856800
eISBN:
9780199301508
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199856800.003.0027
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience

The frequent flaws in human reasoning are well documented. This chapter seeks to provide a general explanation based on the role of argumentation both in contemporary society and during the ... More


Evidentiary Independence: How Evidence Collected Early in an Investigation Influences the Collection and Interpretation of Additional Evidence

Lisa E. Hasel

in Memory and Law

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
January 2013
ISBN:
9780199920754
eISBN:
9780199950133
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199920754.003.0006
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience, Forensic Psychology

Evidence collected early in a criminal investigation has been shown to affect the decisions made by criminal investigators, forensic scientists, and witnesses to a crime. The early evidence can spark ... More


Forensic Judgment and Decision Making

Peter A. F. Fraser-Mackenzie, Rebecca E. Bucht, and Itiel E. Dror

in Comparative Decision Making

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780199856800
eISBN:
9780199301508
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199856800.003.0038
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience

This chapter describes the decision making process by forensic experts. Forensic testimony is generally considered more reliable than most other forms of evidence and plays a key role in establishing ... More


Thinking Rationally About Heuristics and Biases

Bradley E. Alger

in Defense of the Scientific Hypothesis: From Reproducibility Crisis to Big Data

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
February 2021
ISBN:
9780190881481
eISBN:
9780190093761
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190881481.003.0012
Subject:
Neuroscience, Techniques

Chapter 12 continues the discussion of biases in “automatic thinking” that began in the preceding chapter. This chapter takes up the topic of specific biases and their origins in heuristics and ... More


Bias and Belief

Adrian Bardon

in The Truth About Denial: Bias and Self-Deception in Science, Politics, and Religion

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
September 2019
ISBN:
9780190062262
eISBN:
9780190062309
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190062262.003.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter introduces key psychological concepts pertinent to denial, such as cognitive dissonance, motivated reasoning, and confirmation bias. It also addresses the relation between denial and ... More


Confirmation Bias

Sara E. Gorman and Jack M. Gorman

in Denying to the Grave: Why We Ignore the Science That Will Save Us, Revised and Updated Edition

Published in print:
2021
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9780197547458
eISBN:
9780197547489
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780197547458.003.0004
Subject:
Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health

This chapter examines confirmation bias, which refers to people’s tendency to attend only to information that agrees with what they already think is true. Confirmation bias is responsible for not ... More


Bias and Fraud

Jacob Stegenga

in Medical Nihilism

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
April 2018
ISBN:
9780198747048
eISBN:
9780191809170
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198747048.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

There are numerous biases in medical research that render evidence from such research systematically misleading. Some of these biases are exacerbated by conflicts of interest, including fantastic ... More


Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method

Martha Whitesmith

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
May 2021
ISBN:
9781474466349
eISBN:
9781474491112
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:
10.3366/edinburgh/9781474466349.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Security Studies

Belief, Bias and Intelligence outlines an approach for reducing the risk of cognitive biases impacting intelligence analysis that draws from experimental research in the social sciences. It critiques ... More


The Challenges of Changing Minds: How Confirmation Bias and Pattern Recognition Affect Our Search for Meaning

Indre Viskontas

in Pseudoscience: The Conspiracy Against Science

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
September 2018
ISBN:
9780262037426
eISBN:
9780262344814
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262037426.003.0021
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

While hosting a television show on the Oprah Winfrey Network, I had the opportunity to investigate 12 claims of miracles, experienced by a wide swath of Americans. This chapter is a summary of some ... More


Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

Eliezer Yudkowsky

in Global Catastrophic Risks

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
November 2020
ISBN:
9780198570509
eISBN:
9780191918100
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198570509.003.0009
Subject:
Earth Sciences and Geography, Environmental Geography

All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling governments, reckless scientists, and other agents of doom, require a world in which to ... More


Epistemic Virtues and Vices

Chun Wei Choo

in The Inquiring Organization: How Organizations Acquire Knowledge and Seek Information

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
December 2015
ISBN:
9780199782031
eISBN:
9780190459598
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199782031.003.0005
Subject:
Psychology, Social Psychology

This chapter introduces virtue epistemology, a theory of knowledge based on an evaluation of the character traits of the agent. Knowledge is then a state of belief arising out of acts of epistemic ... More


Metaphor and (Dis)belief

Jeanne Gaakeer

in Judging from Experience: Law, Praxis, Humanities

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
September 2019
ISBN:
9781474442480
eISBN:
9781474460286
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Edinburgh University Press
DOI:
10.3366/edinburgh/9781474442480.003.0008
Subject:
Law, Philosophy of Law

In chapter 7 the importance of insight into how metaphor works in law (“seeing resemblance” according to Ricoeur) is elaborated upon in relation to the legal professional’s development of practical ... More


A Conversation with Dr. Gary Klein

Edward D. Hess

in Learn or Die: Using Science to Build a Leading-Edge Learning Organization

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780231170246
eISBN:
9780231538275
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231170246.003.0008
Subject:
Business and Management, Innovation

This chapter presents an interview with Gary Klein, a senior scientist with MacroCognition LLC and a research psychologist. Klein is an expert on how people make decisions in natural settings. He was ... More


Conservation bias: What have we learned?

Brian Silliman and Stephanie Wear

in Effective Conservation Science: Data Not Dogma

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
December 2017
ISBN:
9780198808978
eISBN:
9780191846687
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198808978.003.0028
Subject:
Biology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology, Ecology

Conservation science is unique among scientific disciplines in that it was founded on a set of normative principles. The often dogmatic adherence to these principles has made conservation science ... More


Effective Conservation Science: Data Not Dogma

Peter Kareiva, Michelle Marvier, and Brian Silliman (eds)

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
December 2017
ISBN:
9780198808978
eISBN:
9780191846687
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198808978.001.0001
Subject:
Biology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology, Ecology

This book gathers together 28 personal stories told by leading thinkers and practitioners in conservation – all of whom have something to say about the uncomfortable tension that arises when data ... More


Forty years of bias in habitat fragmentation research

Lenore Fahrig

in Effective Conservation Science: Data Not Dogma

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
December 2017
ISBN:
9780198808978
eISBN:
9780191846687
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198808978.003.0005
Subject:
Biology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology, Ecology

This chapter evaluates biases that contribute to the common misrepresentation of fragmentation as a major threat to biodiversity. The idea that habitat fragmentation seriously threatens biodiversity ... More


Why Reputations in Crisis Are Hard to Change

Amy E. Lerman

in Good Enough for Government Work: The Public Reputation Crisis in America (And What We Can Do to Fix It)

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
January 2020
ISBN:
9780226630175
eISBN:
9780226630342
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226630342.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, American Politics

This chapter describes a series of survey experiments on reputation-motivated reasoning. Essentially, these experiments show that when individuals have information about a program or service and ... More


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