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Probabilistic accounts of conditionals

Jonathan St B T Evans and David E Over

in If

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
April 2010
ISBN:
9780198525134
eISBN:
9780191728174
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198525134.003.08
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Evolutionary Psychology

The Ramsey test implies that people will evaluate the probability of a conditional, P(if p then q), as the conditional probability, P(q¦p). This implication is referred to as the conditional ... More


Tracking: More and Better

Sherrilyn Roush

in Tracking Truth: Knowledge, Evidence, and Science

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
February 2006
ISBN:
9780199274734
eISBN:
9780191603228
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199274738.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter introduces the rules of applying the tracking conditions, and discusses the upshot of formulating the tracking conditions in terms of probability and counterfactuals. Criteria are ... More


Conditionals and probability

Vittorio Girotto and Philip N. Johnson-Laird

in Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199233298
eISBN:
9780191696602
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199233298.003.0006
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter focuses on extensional estimates of the probabilities of conditionals. It argues that they depend on a mental representation of the prior possibilities, and then the computation of the ... More


 Taking Chances

Ken Binmore

in Playing for Real: Game Theory

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
May 2007
ISBN:
9780195300574
eISBN:
9780199783748
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300574.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter shows how risk can be introduced into the rules of a game by admitting chance moves. The Monty Hall problem is offered as an example. Elementary probability theory is reviewed, and ... More


The Equation Attacked

Jonathan Bennett

in A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199258871
eISBN:
9780191597046
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199258872.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language

Presents and evaluates a series of attacks on The Equation, i.e. the view that an indicative conditional ‘If A, C’ is a proposition whose subjective probability for you is always your conditional ... More


Epistemic Conditional Probability: The Sober Truth

Alvin Plantinga

in Warrant and Proper Function

Published in print:
1993
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195078640
eISBN:
9780199872213
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195078640.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

In Ch. 8, I distinguished epistemic probability from objective probability and then pointed out some debilitating problems with the three main accounts of epistemic probability. In this chapter, I ... More


The Probability of the Conditional and the Conditional Probability

Raymond S. Nickerson

in Conditional Reasoning: The Unruly Syntactics, Semantics, Thematics, and Pragmatics of "If"

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780190202996
eISBN:
9780190249137
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190202996.003.0010
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter reviews the debate regarding whether the probability of the conditional, p(If A then C), should be considered equivalent to the conditional probability, p(C|A), and considers the ... More


What is a random process

Melvin Lax, Wei Cai, and Min Xu

in Random Processes in Physics and Finance

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
January 2010
ISBN:
9780198567769
eISBN:
9780191718359
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198567769.003.0002
Subject:
Physics, Theoretical, Computational, and Statistical Physics

A random or stochastic process is a random variable that evolves in time by some random mechanism (of course, the time variable can be replaced by a space variable, or some other variable, in ... More


Conditional Belief and Belief Dynamics

Hannes Leitgeb and Hannes Leitgeb

in The Stability of Belief: How Rational Belief Coheres with Probability

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
April 2017
ISBN:
9780198732631
eISBN:
9780191796852
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198732631.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

This chapter turns to the notion of conditional belief: rationally believing a proposition given another proposition. Among other things, conditional belief plays a role for belief revision by ... More


Probability Spaces

James Davidson

in Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians

Published in print:
1994
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198774037
eISBN:
9780191596117
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198774036.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter defines probability measures and probability spaces in a general context, as a case of the concepts introduced in Ch. 3. The axioms of probability are explained, and the important ... More


Reliabilism and the Value of Knowledge

Alvin I. Goldman and Erik J. Olsson

in Reliabilism and Contemporary Epistemology: Essays

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199812875
eISBN:
9780199933150
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199812875.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, General

This chapter discusses two possible solutions to the value-of-knowledge problem. It first discusses the conditional probability solution, which was formulated and defended by Erik Olsson. It then ... More


Reliabilism and the Value of Knowledge

Alvin I. Goldman and Erik J. Olsson

in Epistemic Value

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
September 2009
ISBN:
9780199231188
eISBN:
9780191710827
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199231188.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, General

It is widely agreed that knowledge has greater value than mere true belief. This chapter begins by identifying a weak sense of ‘know’ (in which it means ‘believe truly’) under which knowledge cannot ... More


The Notional Category of Modality

Angelika Kratzer

in Modals and Conditionals: New and Revised Perspectives

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199234684
eISBN:
9780191738432
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199234684.003.0002
Subject:
Linguistics, Semantics and Pragmatics, Theoretical Linguistics

The chapter derives a typology of possible modal expressions from three parameters: modal base, ordering source, and modal force. Modal bases represent the factual premises the truth of a modal ... More


The Two Deepest Mysteries in Moral Philosophy

William J. Talbott

in Human Rights and Human Well-Being

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
January 2011
ISBN:
9780195173482
eISBN:
9780199872176
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195173482.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Political Philosophy

This chapter shows how the main principle points the way to a solution to the two deepest mysteries in moral philosophy, one metaphysical and one epistemological. The metaphysical mystery is to ... More


Indicative conditionals

Sarah Moss

in Probabilistic Knowledge

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
March 2018
ISBN:
9780198792154
eISBN:
9780191861260
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198792154.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Mind

This chapter defends a probabilistic semantics for indicative conditionals and other logical operators. This semantics is motivated in part by the observation that indicative conditionals are context ... More


The Lorax Problem: Introduction to Bayesian Networks

Therese M. Donovan and Ruth M. Mickey

in Bayesian Statistics for Beginners: a step-by-step approach

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
July 2019
ISBN:
9780198841296
eISBN:
9780191876820
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198841296.003.0019
Subject:
Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies

The “Lorax Problem” introduces Bayesian networks, another set of methods that makes use of Bayes’ Theorem. The ideas are first explained in terms of a small, standard example that explores two ... More


Some Problems with Infinity

Isaac Levi

in Mild Contraction: Evaluating Loss of Information Due to Loss of Belief

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
January 2005
ISBN:
9780199270705
eISBN:
9780191601774
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199270708.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Problems with infinity where inductive expansion or contraction are concerned are discussed. Three special cases when thinking about infinity is required, are considered: problems where the task is ... More


Conditional Acceptance

Ofra Magidor

in Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Language Volume 1

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
April 2019
ISBN:
9780198836568
eISBN:
9780191873744
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198836568.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language

What is the correct semantics for indicative conditionals, and under what circumstances should agents accept a conditional claim? This paper presents a new case which has important implications for ... More


Counterfactuals and Probability

Robert C. Stalnaker

in Knowledge and Conditionals: Essays on the Structure of Inquiry

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
August 2019
ISBN:
9780198810346
eISBN:
9780191847332
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198810346.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter continues the attempt, begun in chapter 10, to reconcile the thesis that conditionals have truth conditions with accounts such as Dorothy Edgington’s that aim to explain conditionals as ... More


Conditional Reasoning Part II: Indicatives, Subjunctives, and the Ramsey Test

Peter Langland-Hassan

in Explaining Imagination

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
September 2020
ISBN:
9780198815068
eISBN:
9780191852886
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198815068.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind

The influential idea that the Ramsey test provides a proper analysis of the psychological means by which we evaluate indicative and subjunctive conditionals is explained. Several recent views have ... More


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