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Does the exception prove the rule? How people reason with conditionals

Mike Oaksford and Nick Chater

in Bayesian Rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
April 2010
ISBN:
9780198524496
eISBN:
9780191584923
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198524496.003.0005
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter shows how a probabilistic perspective can resolve many of the outstanding issues in reasoning research. The goal is to show that many of the errors and biases seen in experiments on ... More


Conditionals in context

Jonathan St B T Evans and David E Over

in If

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
April 2010
ISBN:
9780198525134
eISBN:
9780191728174
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198525134.003.06
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Evolutionary Psychology

Ordinary conditionals are not asserted in isolation. They are used in a context where a speaker communicates with a listener. This context includes the goals and motivations of the speaker and via ... More


Exogeneity and Causality

David F. Hendry

in Dynamic Econometrics

Published in print:
1995
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198283164
eISBN:
9780191596384
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198283164.003.0005
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

Weak exogeneity sustains conditional inference about parameters of interest without loss of information. Strong exogeneity, weak exogeneity with Granger non‐causality, sustains conditional ... More


Biostatistics: the near future

Scott Zeger, Peter Diggle, and Kung-Yee Liang

in Celebrating Statistics: Papers in honour of Sir David Cox on his 80th birthday

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780198566540
eISBN:
9780191718038
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566540.003.0009
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

This chapter reviews the biomedical and public health developments that will influence biostatistical research and practice in the near future, such as advances in molecular biology, and measuring ... More


Pragmatic conditionals, conditional pragmatics, and the pragmatic component of conditional reasoning

Jean-François Bonnefon and Guy Politzer

in Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199233298
eISBN:
9780191696602
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199233298.003.0014
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter argues that the pragmatic knowledge based component of the human reasoning system remains relatively unexplored. Moreover, the conversational use to which conditionals are put must also ... More


Probability logic and the Modus Ponens—Modus Tollens asymmetry in conditional inference

Mike Oaksford and Nick Chater

in The Probabilistic Mind:: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199216093
eISBN:
9780191695971
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199216093.003.0005
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter focuses on the influence of pragmatic factors on reasoning — focusing on a prima facie puzzle for both logical and probabilistic accounts of reasoning: the asymmetry between modus ponens ... More


Conditional inference and constraint satisfaction: Reconciling mental models and the probabilistic approach

Mike Oaksford and Nick Chater

in Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
March 2012
ISBN:
9780199233298
eISBN:
9780191696602
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199233298.003.0017
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter takes the first tentative steps towards an algorithmic level account of the probabilistic approach and demonstrates its face-validity by comparing it to a variety of data on conditional ... More


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