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Beyond Regression: The Need for Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0018
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered, and this book offers openings. To the society at large, quantitative social scientists presently seem no better at prediction than ... More


Example of Model Building: Electoral Volatility

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The foremost mental roadblocks in predictive model building are refusal to make outrageous simplifications and reluctance to play with means of extreme cases. “Ignorance-based” models focus on ... More


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