Jon Williamson
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780198530794
- eISBN:
- 9780191712982
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198530794.001.0001
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Logic / Computer Science / Mathematical Philosophy
This book provides an introduction to, and analysis of, the use of Bayesian nets in causal modelling. It puts forward new conceptual foundations for causal network modelling: The book argues that ...
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This book provides an introduction to, and analysis of, the use of Bayesian nets in causal modelling. It puts forward new conceptual foundations for causal network modelling: The book argues that probability and causality need to be interpreted as epistemic notions in order for the key assumptions behind causal models to hold. Under the epistemic view, probability and causality are understood in terms of the beliefs an agent ought to adopt. The book develops an objective Bayesian notion of probability and a corresponding epistemic theory of causality. This yields a general framework for causal modelling, which is extended to cope with recursive causal relations, logically complex beliefs and changes in an agent's language.Less
This book provides an introduction to, and analysis of, the use of Bayesian nets in causal modelling. It puts forward new conceptual foundations for causal network modelling: The book argues that probability and causality need to be interpreted as epistemic notions in order for the key assumptions behind causal models to hold. Under the epistemic view, probability and causality are understood in terms of the beliefs an agent ought to adopt. The book develops an objective Bayesian notion of probability and a corresponding epistemic theory of causality. This yields a general framework for causal modelling, which is extended to cope with recursive causal relations, logically complex beliefs and changes in an agent's language.
Steven Sloman
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195183115
- eISBN:
- 9780199870950
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183115.001.0001
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind
Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. ...
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Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. This book presents the question, in cognitive terms: how do people construct and reason with the causal models we use to represent our world? A revolution is occurring in how statisticians, philosophers, and computer scientists answer this question. Those fields have ushered in new insights about causal models by thinking about how to represent causal structure mathematically, in a framework that uses graphs and probability theory to develop what are called causal Bayesian networks. The framework starts with the idea that the purpose of causal structure is to understand and predict the effects of intervention. How does intervening on one thing affect other things? This is not a question merely about probability (or logic), but about action. The framework offers a new understanding of mind: thought is about the effects of intervention and cognition is thus intimately tied to actions that take place either in the actual physical world or in imagination, in counterfactual worlds. This book offers a conceptual introduction to the key mathematical ideas, presenting them in a non-technical way, focusing on the intuitions rather than the theorems. It tries to show why the ideas are important to understanding how people explain things and why thinking not only about the world as it is but the world as it could be is so central to human action. The book reviews the role of causality, causal models, and intervention in the basic human cognitive functions: decision making, reasoning, judgment, categorization, inductive inference, language, and learning. In short, the book offers a discussion about how people think, talk, learn, and explain things in causal terms, in terms of action and manipulation.Less
Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. This book presents the question, in cognitive terms: how do people construct and reason with the causal models we use to represent our world? A revolution is occurring in how statisticians, philosophers, and computer scientists answer this question. Those fields have ushered in new insights about causal models by thinking about how to represent causal structure mathematically, in a framework that uses graphs and probability theory to develop what are called causal Bayesian networks. The framework starts with the idea that the purpose of causal structure is to understand and predict the effects of intervention. How does intervening on one thing affect other things? This is not a question merely about probability (or logic), but about action. The framework offers a new understanding of mind: thought is about the effects of intervention and cognition is thus intimately tied to actions that take place either in the actual physical world or in imagination, in counterfactual worlds. This book offers a conceptual introduction to the key mathematical ideas, presenting them in a non-technical way, focusing on the intuitions rather than the theorems. It tries to show why the ideas are important to understanding how people explain things and why thinking not only about the world as it is but the world as it could be is so central to human action. The book reviews the role of causality, causal models, and intervention in the basic human cognitive functions: decision making, reasoning, judgment, categorization, inductive inference, language, and learning. In short, the book offers a discussion about how people think, talk, learn, and explain things in causal terms, in terms of action and manipulation.
Steven Sloman
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195183115
- eISBN:
- 9780199870950
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183115.003.0008
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind
This chapter focuses on the role of causal models in judgment. It is argued that causal modeling plays a central role in the process of judgment when the object of judgment can be construed as a ...
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This chapter focuses on the role of causal models in judgment. It is argued that causal modeling plays a central role in the process of judgment when the object of judgment can be construed as a causal effect. Such a construal is almost always appropriate in the legal domain where both crimes and accidents are effects of individual actions. It is also appropriate in scientific domains. Scientists are also in the business of building causal models, in their case to understand how the world works in general rather than to understand the circumstances of a specific event. Causal models are relevant to judgment in any domain in which physical, social, or abstract events cause other events. Causal models may well be the primary determinant of what is considered relevant when reasoning, when making judgments and predictions, and when taking action within such domains.Less
This chapter focuses on the role of causal models in judgment. It is argued that causal modeling plays a central role in the process of judgment when the object of judgment can be construed as a causal effect. Such a construal is almost always appropriate in the legal domain where both crimes and accidents are effects of individual actions. It is also appropriate in scientific domains. Scientists are also in the business of building causal models, in their case to understand how the world works in general rather than to understand the circumstances of a specific event. Causal models are relevant to judgment in any domain in which physical, social, or abstract events cause other events. Causal models may well be the primary determinant of what is considered relevant when reasoning, when making judgments and predictions, and when taking action within such domains.
Steven Sloman
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195183115
- eISBN:
- 9780199870950
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183115.003.0012
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind
This chapter offers a selection of theories of causal learning. Some of the theories come out of psychology, while others come out of rational analyses of causal learning. All tend to focus on how ...
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This chapter offers a selection of theories of causal learning. Some of the theories come out of psychology, while others come out of rational analyses of causal learning. All tend to focus on how people use correlations — information about which events go together — to figure out what is causing what. A number of other, supporting pieces of information about what causes what — a number of other cues to causal structure — that people are responsive to are described. The costs and benefits of allowing learners to actively intervene on the system they are learning are discussed.Less
This chapter offers a selection of theories of causal learning. Some of the theories come out of psychology, while others come out of rational analyses of causal learning. All tend to focus on how people use correlations — information about which events go together — to figure out what is causing what. A number of other, supporting pieces of information about what causes what — a number of other cues to causal structure — that people are responsive to are described. The costs and benefits of allowing learners to actively intervene on the system they are learning are discussed.
Steven Sloman
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195183115
- eISBN:
- 9780199870950
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183115.003.0010
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind
This chapter focuses on how we induce properties of the world. Some psychologists have been coming back to the view that induction is mediated by causal models — causal models that are often ...
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This chapter focuses on how we induce properties of the world. Some psychologists have been coming back to the view that induction is mediated by causal models — causal models that are often generated online through the application of causal principles, abstract causal relations that have general applicability. Such causal models help to explain how people make inductive inferences when the inference can be conceived as a causal effect, as in the ‘bananas have it; therefore, monkeys have it’ example. In other cases, inference involves analogy: a predicate is applied to one category because it is known to apply to an analogous category, as in the ‘tigers do it; therefore, hawks do it’ example. In such cases, the analogy seems to be between causal structures. Finally, causal models give a psychologically plausible way to think about why people sometimes show sensitivity to statistical information. Instead of assuming that people calculate statistics like measures of the variability of a property, the requisite information can be interpreted as a property's centrality in a causal model.Less
This chapter focuses on how we induce properties of the world. Some psychologists have been coming back to the view that induction is mediated by causal models — causal models that are often generated online through the application of causal principles, abstract causal relations that have general applicability. Such causal models help to explain how people make inductive inferences when the inference can be conceived as a causal effect, as in the ‘bananas have it; therefore, monkeys have it’ example. In other cases, inference involves analogy: a predicate is applied to one category because it is known to apply to an analogous category, as in the ‘tigers do it; therefore, hawks do it’ example. In such cases, the analogy seems to be between causal structures. Finally, causal models give a psychologically plausible way to think about why people sometimes show sensitivity to statistical information. Instead of assuming that people calculate statistics like measures of the variability of a property, the requisite information can be interpreted as a property's centrality in a causal model.
Steven Sloman
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195183115
- eISBN:
- 9780199870950
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183115.003.0013
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind
This concluding chapter attempts to draw out the general lessons of causal and interventional principles for an understanding of people, their situations, their problems, and solutions to their ...
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This concluding chapter attempts to draw out the general lessons of causal and interventional principles for an understanding of people, their situations, their problems, and solutions to their problems. Topics discussed include the role of causal models in how the mind works, fundamental claims of the causal modelling framework, what causal models can contribute to human welfare, and the causal modelling metaphor.Less
This concluding chapter attempts to draw out the general lessons of causal and interventional principles for an understanding of people, their situations, their problems, and solutions to their problems. Topics discussed include the role of causal models in how the mind works, fundamental claims of the causal modelling framework, what causal models can contribute to human welfare, and the causal modelling metaphor.
Stefan J. Kiebel, Marta I. Garrido, and Karl J. Friston
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195372731
- eISBN:
- 9780199776283
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195372731.003.0015
- Subject:
- Neuroscience, Techniques
Developments in M/EEG analysis allows for models that are sophisticated enough to capture the full richness of the data. This chapter focuses on dynamic causal modeling (DCM) for M/EEG, which entails ...
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Developments in M/EEG analysis allows for models that are sophisticated enough to capture the full richness of the data. This chapter focuses on dynamic causal modeling (DCM) for M/EEG, which entails the inversion of informed spatiotemporal models of observed responses. The idea is to model condition-specific responses over channels and peristimulus time with the same model, where the differences among conditions are explained by changes in only a few key parameters. The face and predictive validity of DCM have been established, which makes it a potentially useful tool for group studies.Less
Developments in M/EEG analysis allows for models that are sophisticated enough to capture the full richness of the data. This chapter focuses on dynamic causal modeling (DCM) for M/EEG, which entails the inversion of informed spatiotemporal models of observed responses. The idea is to model condition-specific responses over channels and peristimulus time with the same model, where the differences among conditions are explained by changes in only a few key parameters. The face and predictive validity of DCM have been established, which makes it a potentially useful tool for group studies.
William Hoppitt and Kevin N. Laland
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691150703
- eISBN:
- 9781400846504
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691150703.003.0006
- Subject:
- Biology, Animal Biology
This chapter describes repertoire-based methods for detecting and quantifying the social transmission of behavior based on a “snapshot” of the behavioral repertoires of individuals or groups. ...
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This chapter describes repertoire-based methods for detecting and quantifying the social transmission of behavior based on a “snapshot” of the behavioral repertoires of individuals or groups. Repertoire-based methods often take the form of a group contrast approach, where the researcher attempts to ascertain whether different groups have different behavioral repertoires, which might be caused by a higher rate of social transmission within groups than between them. The chapter first considers approaches that can be applied to determine whether group differences in behavior exist, including the group contrasts approach and the method of exclusion. In particular, it discusses methods for assessing the genetic hypothesis and the ecological hypothesis. It also presents a model-fitting approach and a causal modeling framework. Finally, it highlights the limitations of studying social learning based solely on differences in repertoires.Less
This chapter describes repertoire-based methods for detecting and quantifying the social transmission of behavior based on a “snapshot” of the behavioral repertoires of individuals or groups. Repertoire-based methods often take the form of a group contrast approach, where the researcher attempts to ascertain whether different groups have different behavioral repertoires, which might be caused by a higher rate of social transmission within groups than between them. The chapter first considers approaches that can be applied to determine whether group differences in behavior exist, including the group contrasts approach and the method of exclusion. In particular, it discusses methods for assessing the genetic hypothesis and the ecological hypothesis. It also presents a model-fitting approach and a causal modeling framework. Finally, it highlights the limitations of studying social learning based solely on differences in repertoires.
Gary Goertz and James Mahoney
- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691149707
- eISBN:
- 9781400845446
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691149707.003.0004
- Subject:
- Sociology, Social Research and Statistics
This chapter compares two causal models used in qualitative and quantitative research: an additive-linear model and a set-theoretic model. The additive-linear causal model is common in the ...
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This chapter compares two causal models used in qualitative and quantitative research: an additive-linear model and a set-theoretic model. The additive-linear causal model is common in the statistical culture, whereas the set-theoretic model is often used (implicitly) in the qualitative culture. After providing an overview of the two causal models, the chapter considers the main differences between them. It then gives an example to illustrate how a set-theoretic causal model is implicitly used in the within-case analysis of a specific outcome. It also explains how the form of causal complexity varies across the quantitative and qualitative paradigms. Finally, it examines another difference between the causal models used in quantitative and qualitative research, one that revolves around the concept of “equifinality” or “multiple causation.” The chapter suggests that while the two causal models are quite different, neither is a priori correct.Less
This chapter compares two causal models used in qualitative and quantitative research: an additive-linear model and a set-theoretic model. The additive-linear causal model is common in the statistical culture, whereas the set-theoretic model is often used (implicitly) in the qualitative culture. After providing an overview of the two causal models, the chapter considers the main differences between them. It then gives an example to illustrate how a set-theoretic causal model is implicitly used in the within-case analysis of a specific outcome. It also explains how the form of causal complexity varies across the quantitative and qualitative paradigms. Finally, it examines another difference between the causal models used in quantitative and qualitative research, one that revolves around the concept of “equifinality” or “multiple causation.” The chapter suggests that while the two causal models are quite different, neither is a priori correct.
Steven Sloman
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- January 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195183115
- eISBN:
- 9780199870950
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183115.003.0011
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind
This chapter discusses how we use aspects of language. It shows that we use causal models to produce and understand speech even when we have no idea that we are doing so. Two aspects of language are ...
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This chapter discusses how we use aspects of language. It shows that we use causal models to produce and understand speech even when we have no idea that we are doing so. Two aspects of language are considered that illustrate this usage: what pronouns refer to and the meaning of conjunctions like and if. The meaning of if is especially complicated, and the details of the causal model framework are particularly helpful for understanding it.Less
This chapter discusses how we use aspects of language. It shows that we use causal models to produce and understand speech even when we have no idea that we are doing so. Two aspects of language are considered that illustrate this usage: what pronouns refer to and the meaning of conjunctions like and if. The meaning of if is especially complicated, and the details of the causal model framework are particularly helpful for understanding it.
David A. Lagnado, Michael R. Waldmann, York Hagmaye, and Steven A. Sloman
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- April 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195176803
- eISBN:
- 9780199958511
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195176803.003.0011
- Subject:
- Psychology, Developmental Psychology
Causal induction has two components: learning about the structure of causal models and learning about causal strength and other quantitative parameters. This chapter argues for several interconnected ...
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Causal induction has two components: learning about the structure of causal models and learning about causal strength and other quantitative parameters. This chapter argues for several interconnected theses. First, people represent causal knowledge qualitatively, in terms of causal structure; quantitative knowledge is derivative. Second, people use a variety of cues to infer causal structure aside from statistical data (e.g. temporal order, intervention, coherence with prior knowledge). Third, once a structural model is hypothesized, subsequent statistical data are used to confirm, refute, or elaborate the model. Fourth, people are limited in the number and complexity of causal models that they can hold in mind to test, but they can separately learn and then integrate simple models, and revise models by adding and removing single links. Finally, current computational models of learning need further development before they can be applied to human learning.Less
Causal induction has two components: learning about the structure of causal models and learning about causal strength and other quantitative parameters. This chapter argues for several interconnected theses. First, people represent causal knowledge qualitatively, in terms of causal structure; quantitative knowledge is derivative. Second, people use a variety of cues to infer causal structure aside from statistical data (e.g. temporal order, intervention, coherence with prior knowledge). Third, once a structural model is hypothesized, subsequent statistical data are used to confirm, refute, or elaborate the model. Fourth, people are limited in the number and complexity of causal models that they can hold in mind to test, but they can separately learn and then integrate simple models, and revise models by adding and removing single links. Finally, current computational models of learning need further development before they can be applied to human learning.
Ladan Shams and Ulrik Beierholm
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- September 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780195387247
- eISBN:
- 9780199918379
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195387247.003.0013
- Subject:
- Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience, Cognitive Psychology
This chapter first discusses experimental findings showing that multisensory perception encompasses a spectrum of phenomena ranging from full integration (or fusion), to partial integration, to ...
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This chapter first discusses experimental findings showing that multisensory perception encompasses a spectrum of phenomena ranging from full integration (or fusion), to partial integration, to complete segregation. Next, it describes two Bayesian causal-inference models that can account for the entire range of combinations of two or more sensory cues. It shows that one of these models, which is a hierarchical Bayesian model, is a special form of the other one (which is a nonhierarchical model). It then compares the predictions of these models with human data in multiple experiments and shows that Bayesian causal-inference models can account for the human data remarkably well. Finally, a study is presented that investigates the stability of priors in the face of drastic change in sensory conditions.Less
This chapter first discusses experimental findings showing that multisensory perception encompasses a spectrum of phenomena ranging from full integration (or fusion), to partial integration, to complete segregation. Next, it describes two Bayesian causal-inference models that can account for the entire range of combinations of two or more sensory cues. It shows that one of these models, which is a hierarchical Bayesian model, is a special form of the other one (which is a nonhierarchical model). It then compares the predictions of these models with human data in multiple experiments and shows that Bayesian causal-inference models can account for the human data remarkably well. Finally, a study is presented that investigates the stability of priors in the face of drastic change in sensory conditions.
Gary Goertz and James Mahoney
- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691149707
- eISBN:
- 9781400845446
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691149707.003.0005
- Subject:
- Sociology, Social Research and Statistics
This chapter shows that the quantitative and qualitative cultures differ on the issue of symmetry. Whereas quantitative research tends to analyze relationships that are symmetric, qualitative ...
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This chapter shows that the quantitative and qualitative cultures differ on the issue of symmetry. Whereas quantitative research tends to analyze relationships that are symmetric, qualitative research focuses on relationships that have asymmetric qualities. Causal models and explanations can be asymmetric in a variety of ways. This chapter deals mainly (though not exclusively) on the so-called “static causal asymmetry,” in which the explanation of occurrence is not the mirror image of that of nonoccurrence. After comparing symmetric and asymmetric models, the chapter looks at examples of asymmetric explanations using set-theoretic causal models. It highlights the difficulty of translating the fundamental symmetry of standard statistical models into the basic asymmetry of set-theoretic models, as well as the difficulty of capturing the asymmetry of set-theoretic models with the standard symmetric tools of statistics.Less
This chapter shows that the quantitative and qualitative cultures differ on the issue of symmetry. Whereas quantitative research tends to analyze relationships that are symmetric, qualitative research focuses on relationships that have asymmetric qualities. Causal models and explanations can be asymmetric in a variety of ways. This chapter deals mainly (though not exclusively) on the so-called “static causal asymmetry,” in which the explanation of occurrence is not the mirror image of that of nonoccurrence. After comparing symmetric and asymmetric models, the chapter looks at examples of asymmetric explanations using set-theoretic causal models. It highlights the difficulty of translating the fundamental symmetry of standard statistical models into the basic asymmetry of set-theoretic models, as well as the difficulty of capturing the asymmetry of set-theoretic models with the standard symmetric tools of statistics.
Keith A. Markus
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- September 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780199574131
- eISBN:
- 9780191728921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199574131.003.0012
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Logic / Computer Science / Mathematical Philosophy
Pearl's work on causation has helped focus new attention on the nature of causal reasoning and causal inference in behavioural science. Pearl takes an axiomatic approach, presenting axioms as first ...
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Pearl's work on causation has helped focus new attention on the nature of causal reasoning and causal inference in behavioural science. Pearl takes an axiomatic approach, presenting axioms as first principles, but these may be better understood as boundary conditions for the application of the theory. Pearl adopts a non‐eliminative but instrumental approach to causation which creates some tension with the tradition of ruling out rival hypotheses in the behavioural sciences. Finally, much causal reasoning in the behavioural sciences involves reasoning across possible worlds that differ in their causal structure, which becomes awkward within the basic architecture of Pearl's system. A neighbourhood semantics approach could represent this type of reasoning more naturally. Consideration of these issues may be helpful both to behavioural scientists working to incorporate Pearl's work and also to those working outside the behavioural sciences attempting to explain causal reasoning within those sciences.Less
Pearl's work on causation has helped focus new attention on the nature of causal reasoning and causal inference in behavioural science. Pearl takes an axiomatic approach, presenting axioms as first principles, but these may be better understood as boundary conditions for the application of the theory. Pearl adopts a non‐eliminative but instrumental approach to causation which creates some tension with the tradition of ruling out rival hypotheses in the behavioural sciences. Finally, much causal reasoning in the behavioural sciences involves reasoning across possible worlds that differ in their causal structure, which becomes awkward within the basic architecture of Pearl's system. A neighbourhood semantics approach could represent this type of reasoning more naturally. Consideration of these issues may be helpful both to behavioural scientists working to incorporate Pearl's work and also to those working outside the behavioural sciences attempting to explain causal reasoning within those sciences.
Rein Taagepera
- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780199534661
- eISBN:
- 9780191715921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy
The numbers published in physics are steppingstones for further inquiry, because they are few and other researchers often make use of them. The numbers published in social sciences are endpoints, ...
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The numbers published in physics are steppingstones for further inquiry, because they are few and other researchers often make use of them. The numbers published in social sciences are endpoints, because they are profligate and, once printed, hardly anyone makes use of them. Astronomy could not develop without overcoming the Ptolemaic syndrome of reducing all motion to circular. Social sciences must overcome their syndrome of reducing all relationships to linear. Physicists, like people in general, start with causal models, while social scientists stand apart by starting with empirical models.Less
The numbers published in physics are steppingstones for further inquiry, because they are few and other researchers often make use of them. The numbers published in social sciences are endpoints, because they are profligate and, once printed, hardly anyone makes use of them. Astronomy could not develop without overcoming the Ptolemaic syndrome of reducing all motion to circular. Social sciences must overcome their syndrome of reducing all relationships to linear. Physicists, like people in general, start with causal models, while social scientists stand apart by starting with empirical models.
Alison Gopnik and Laura Schulz (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- April 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195176803
- eISBN:
- 9780199958511
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195176803.001.0001
- Subject:
- Psychology, Developmental Psychology
This book outlines the recent revolutionary work in cognitive science formulating a “probabilistic model” theory of learning and development. It provides an accessible and clear introduction to the ...
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This book outlines the recent revolutionary work in cognitive science formulating a “probabilistic model” theory of learning and development. It provides an accessible and clear introduction to the probabilistic modeling in psychology, including causal model, Bayes net, and Bayesian approaches. It also outlines new cognitive and developmental psychological studies of statistical and causal learning, imitation and theory-formation, new philosophical approaches to causation, and new computational approaches to the representation of intuitive concepts and theories. This book brings together research in all of these areas of cognitive science, with chapters by researchers in all these disciplines. Understanding causal structure is a central task of human cognition. Causal learning underpins the development of our concepts and categories, our intuitive theories, and our capacities for planning, imagination, and inference. This new work uses the framework of probabilistic models and interventionist accounts of causation in philosophy in order to provide a rigorous formal basis for “theory theories” of concepts and cognitive development. Moreover, the causal learning mechanisms this interdisciplinary research program has uncovered go dramatically beyond both the traditional mechanisms of nativist theories such as modularity theories, and empiricist ones such as association or connectionism. The chapters cover three topics: the role of intervention and action in causal understanding, the role of causation in categories and concepts, and the relationship between causal learning and intuitive theory formation. Though coming from different disciplines, the chapters converge on showing how we can use our own actions and the evidence we observe in order to accurately learn about the world.Less
This book outlines the recent revolutionary work in cognitive science formulating a “probabilistic model” theory of learning and development. It provides an accessible and clear introduction to the probabilistic modeling in psychology, including causal model, Bayes net, and Bayesian approaches. It also outlines new cognitive and developmental psychological studies of statistical and causal learning, imitation and theory-formation, new philosophical approaches to causation, and new computational approaches to the representation of intuitive concepts and theories. This book brings together research in all of these areas of cognitive science, with chapters by researchers in all these disciplines. Understanding causal structure is a central task of human cognition. Causal learning underpins the development of our concepts and categories, our intuitive theories, and our capacities for planning, imagination, and inference. This new work uses the framework of probabilistic models and interventionist accounts of causation in philosophy in order to provide a rigorous formal basis for “theory theories” of concepts and cognitive development. Moreover, the causal learning mechanisms this interdisciplinary research program has uncovered go dramatically beyond both the traditional mechanisms of nativist theories such as modularity theories, and empiricist ones such as association or connectionism. The chapters cover three topics: the role of intervention and action in causal understanding, the role of causation in categories and concepts, and the relationship between causal learning and intuitive theory formation. Though coming from different disciplines, the chapters converge on showing how we can use our own actions and the evidence we observe in order to accurately learn about the world.
Gary Goertz and James Mahoney
- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691149707
- eISBN:
- 9781400845446
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691149707.003.0014
- Subject:
- Sociology, Social Research and Statistics
This chapter discusses quantitative and qualitative practices of case-study selection when the goal of the analysis is to evaluate causal hypotheses. More specifically, it considers how the different ...
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This chapter discusses quantitative and qualitative practices of case-study selection when the goal of the analysis is to evaluate causal hypotheses. More specifically, it considers how the different causal models used in the qualitative and quantitative research cultures shape the kind of cases that provide the most leverage for hypothesis testing. The chapter examines whether one should select cases based on their value on the dependent variable. It also evaluates the kinds of cases that provide the most leverage for causal inference when conducting case-study research. It shows that differences in research goals between quantitative and qualitative scholars yield distinct ideas about best strategies of case selection. Qualitative research places emphasis on explaining particular cases; quantitative research does not.Less
This chapter discusses quantitative and qualitative practices of case-study selection when the goal of the analysis is to evaluate causal hypotheses. More specifically, it considers how the different causal models used in the qualitative and quantitative research cultures shape the kind of cases that provide the most leverage for hypothesis testing. The chapter examines whether one should select cases based on their value on the dependent variable. It also evaluates the kinds of cases that provide the most leverage for causal inference when conducting case-study research. It shows that differences in research goals between quantitative and qualitative scholars yield distinct ideas about best strategies of case selection. Qualitative research places emphasis on explaining particular cases; quantitative research does not.
David Danks
- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- April 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780195176803
- eISBN:
- 9780199958511
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195176803.003.0012
- Subject:
- Psychology, Developmental Psychology
Many different, seemingly mutually exclusive, theories of categorization have been proposed in recent years. The most notable theories have been those based on prototypes, exemplars, and causal ...
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Many different, seemingly mutually exclusive, theories of categorization have been proposed in recent years. The most notable theories have been those based on prototypes, exemplars, and causal models. This chapter provides “representation theorems” for each of these theories in the framework of probabilistic graphical models. More specifically, it shows for each of these psychological theories that the categorization judgments predicted and explained by the theory can be wholly captured using probabilistic graphical models. In other words, probabilistic graphical models provide a lingua franca for these disparate categorization theories, and so we can quite directly compare the different types of theories. These formal results are used to explain a variety of surprising empirical results, and to propose several novel theories of categorization.Less
Many different, seemingly mutually exclusive, theories of categorization have been proposed in recent years. The most notable theories have been those based on prototypes, exemplars, and causal models. This chapter provides “representation theorems” for each of these theories in the framework of probabilistic graphical models. More specifically, it shows for each of these psychological theories that the categorization judgments predicted and explained by the theory can be wholly captured using probabilistic graphical models. In other words, probabilistic graphical models provide a lingua franca for these disparate categorization theories, and so we can quite directly compare the different types of theories. These formal results are used to explain a variety of surprising empirical results, and to propose several novel theories of categorization.
Teresa McCormack, Caren Frosch, and Patrick Burns
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- January 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780199590698
- eISBN:
- 9780191731242
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199590698.003.0003
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind, Metaphysics/Epistemology
In this chapter, we distinguish between two ways in which counterfactual and causal judgements might be linked. According to a psychological relatedness view, counterfactual and causal judgements are ...
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In this chapter, we distinguish between two ways in which counterfactual and causal judgements might be linked. According to a psychological relatedness view, counterfactual and causal judgements are viewed as psychologically related and expected to be consistent with each other, whereas according to a counterfactual process view, counterfactual thought is thought to be actually involved in the process of making causal judgements. Our research with young children is discussed in terms of whether it provides support for either of these views. The findings of studies in which children were asked to make counterfactual judgements about the effects of intervening on a causal system suggest that causal and counterfactual judgements are not necessarily consistent in children. However, the findings of our studies in which children judge whether an object possesses a causal power provided some evidence for a link between causal and counterfactual judgements. We discuss whether counterfactual reasoning may actually be involved in the process of making certain types of simple causal judgements, in tasks examining cue competition effects.Less
In this chapter, we distinguish between two ways in which counterfactual and causal judgements might be linked. According to a psychological relatedness view, counterfactual and causal judgements are viewed as psychologically related and expected to be consistent with each other, whereas according to a counterfactual process view, counterfactual thought is thought to be actually involved in the process of making causal judgements. Our research with young children is discussed in terms of whether it provides support for either of these views. The findings of studies in which children were asked to make counterfactual judgements about the effects of intervening on a causal system suggest that causal and counterfactual judgements are not necessarily consistent in children. However, the findings of our studies in which children judge whether an object possesses a causal power provided some evidence for a link between causal and counterfactual judgements. We discuss whether counterfactual reasoning may actually be involved in the process of making certain types of simple causal judgements, in tasks examining cue competition effects.
David Lagnado
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- September 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780199574131
- eISBN:
- 9780191728921
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199574131.003.0007
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Logic / Computer Science / Mathematical Philosophy
How do people acquire and use causal knowledge? This chapter argues that causal learning and reasoning are intertwined, and recruit similar representations and inferential procedures. In contrast to ...
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How do people acquire and use causal knowledge? This chapter argues that causal learning and reasoning are intertwined, and recruit similar representations and inferential procedures. In contrast to covariation‐based approaches to learning, this chapter maintains that people use multiple sources of evidence to discover causal relations, and that the causal representation itself is separate from these informational sources. The key roles of prior knowledge and interventions in learning are also discussed. Finally, this chapter speculates about the role of mental simulation in causal inference. Drawing on parallels with work in the psychology of mechanical reasoning, the notion of a causal mental model is proposed as a viable alternative to reasoning systems based in logic or probability theory alone. The central idea is that when people reason about causal systems they utilize mental models that represent objects, events or states of affairs, and reasoning and inference is carried out by mental simulation of these models.Less
How do people acquire and use causal knowledge? This chapter argues that causal learning and reasoning are intertwined, and recruit similar representations and inferential procedures. In contrast to covariation‐based approaches to learning, this chapter maintains that people use multiple sources of evidence to discover causal relations, and that the causal representation itself is separate from these informational sources. The key roles of prior knowledge and interventions in learning are also discussed. Finally, this chapter speculates about the role of mental simulation in causal inference. Drawing on parallels with work in the psychology of mechanical reasoning, the notion of a causal mental model is proposed as a viable alternative to reasoning systems based in logic or probability theory alone. The central idea is that when people reason about causal systems they utilize mental models that represent objects, events or states of affairs, and reasoning and inference is carried out by mental simulation of these models.
