Larry M. Bartels
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253135
- eISBN:
- 9780191599675
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253137.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The aim of this chapter is to provide a systematic test of the conventional wisdom that personality is key in contemporary American electoral politics. Using survey data from the six most recent ...
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The aim of this chapter is to provide a systematic test of the conventional wisdom that personality is key in contemporary American electoral politics. Using survey data from the six most recent presidential elections, the contours are examines of the candidates’ images (traits), the bases of those images in voters’ more fundamental political predispositions, and the impact of voters’ assessments of the candidates’ personal qualities on individual voting behaviour and on aggregate election outcomes. In stark contrast with the popular conception of contemporary electoral politics as candidate–centred and image–driven, it is argued that candidates’ images are largely epiphenomenal and have only a modest impact on election outcomes. This conclusion is underlined by the analysis given of the 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) presidential election, in which the estimated impact of voters’ assessments of the candidates’ personalities was even smaller than in the previous five elections considered here, although quite probably large enough to be decisive in an election decided by a few hundred votes in a single state.Less
The aim of this chapter is to provide a systematic test of the conventional wisdom that personality is key in contemporary American electoral politics. Using survey data from the six most recent presidential elections, the contours are examines of the candidates’ images (traits), the bases of those images in voters’ more fundamental political predispositions, and the impact of voters’ assessments of the candidates’ personal qualities on individual voting behaviour and on aggregate election outcomes. In stark contrast with the popular conception of contemporary electoral politics as candidate–centred and image–driven, it is argued that candidates’ images are largely epiphenomenal and have only a modest impact on election outcomes. This conclusion is underlined by the analysis given of the 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) presidential election, in which the estimated impact of voters’ assessments of the candidates’ personalities was even smaller than in the previous five elections considered here, although quite probably large enough to be decisive in an election decided by a few hundred votes in a single state.
Frank Brettschneider and Oscar W. Gabriel
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253135
- eISBN:
- 9780191599675
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253137.003.0005
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The federal elections of 1998 were the first time in Germany that notions of personalization and presidentialization were discussed during an election; before that German voters chose, at least ...
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The federal elections of 1998 were the first time in Germany that notions of personalization and presidentialization were discussed during an election; before that German voters chose, at least formally, between competing parties rather than between competing chancellor candidates, and only a minor role was accorded to the personalities and circumstances of candidates. The first part of this chapter analyses the role that voters’ orientations towards the chancellor–candidates has played in the broad context of electoral choice, paying particular attention to the influence of candidate orientations on the voting choices of people lacking any long–term party identification; this part of the analysis is based on data pertaining to all the electoral contests fought in Germany from 1961 to 1998. The second part of the chapter analyses the various components of the chancellor–candidates’ images: does the way in which voters evaluate the candidates simply reflect existing patterns of party identification, or do the voters construct their own candidate orientations by fitting separate pieces into a pattern, each of which refers to specific attributes of the candidates as perceived and evaluated by them; and are the proponents of the personalization thesis right in assuming that the candidates’ images are largely determined by the voters’ perceptions of the candidates’ personalities rather than by their performance? These questions are answered with specific reference to data collected by the 1998 German Election Study. Despite the apparent personal favouring of Schröder over Kohl in 1998, it is concluded that there is no real evidence that chancellor–candidates’ personalities and other personal characteristics play any stronger role in German voting patterns than they have in the past.Less
The federal elections of 1998 were the first time in Germany that notions of personalization and presidentialization were discussed during an election; before that German voters chose, at least formally, between competing parties rather than between competing chancellor candidates, and only a minor role was accorded to the personalities and circumstances of candidates. The first part of this chapter analyses the role that voters’ orientations towards the chancellor–candidates has played in the broad context of electoral choice, paying particular attention to the influence of candidate orientations on the voting choices of people lacking any long–term party identification; this part of the analysis is based on data pertaining to all the electoral contests fought in Germany from 1961 to 1998. The second part of the chapter analyses the various components of the chancellor–candidates’ images: does the way in which voters evaluate the candidates simply reflect existing patterns of party identification, or do the voters construct their own candidate orientations by fitting separate pieces into a pattern, each of which refers to specific attributes of the candidates as perceived and evaluated by them; and are the proponents of the personalization thesis right in assuming that the candidates’ images are largely determined by the voters’ perceptions of the candidates’ personalities rather than by their performance? These questions are answered with specific reference to data collected by the 1998 German Election Study. Despite the apparent personal favouring of Schröder over Kohl in 1998, it is concluded that there is no real evidence that chancellor–candidates’ personalities and other personal characteristics play any stronger role in German voting patterns than they have in the past.
Amanda Bittner
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- May 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780199595365
- eISBN:
- 9780191725593
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199595365.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Campaign organizers and the media appear to agree that voters' perceptions of party leaders have an important impact in elections: considerable effort is made to ensure that leaders look good, speak ...
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Campaign organizers and the media appear to agree that voters' perceptions of party leaders have an important impact in elections: considerable effort is made to ensure that leaders look good, speak well, and that they are up in the polls. In contrast, the academic literature is much more divided. Some suggest that leaders play an important role in the vote calculus, while others argue that in comparison to other factors, perceptions of leaders have only a minimal impact. This study incorporates data from thirty-five election studies across seven countries with varying institutional environments, and takes both a broad and in-depth look at the role of leaders. A few noteworthy conclusions emerge. First, voters evaluate leaders' traits in terms of two main dimensions: character and competence. Second, voters perceive leaders within the framework of a partisan stereotype in which the party label of the leader imbues meaning; more specifically, leaders of Conservative parties are seen to be more competent while Left leaders are seen to have more character. Third, and most importantly, leaders matter: they affect voters' decisions and have a discernible effect on the distribution of votes in an election. Fourth, there are consistent differences in the perception of party leaders according to voters' level of political sophistication. While all voters evaluate party leaders and consider leaders in their vote calculus, the more sophisticated do so the most. This book argues that personality plays an important role in elections, and that in a healthy democracy, so it should.Less
Campaign organizers and the media appear to agree that voters' perceptions of party leaders have an important impact in elections: considerable effort is made to ensure that leaders look good, speak well, and that they are up in the polls. In contrast, the academic literature is much more divided. Some suggest that leaders play an important role in the vote calculus, while others argue that in comparison to other factors, perceptions of leaders have only a minimal impact. This study incorporates data from thirty-five election studies across seven countries with varying institutional environments, and takes both a broad and in-depth look at the role of leaders. A few noteworthy conclusions emerge. First, voters evaluate leaders' traits in terms of two main dimensions: character and competence. Second, voters perceive leaders within the framework of a partisan stereotype in which the party label of the leader imbues meaning; more specifically, leaders of Conservative parties are seen to be more competent while Left leaders are seen to have more character. Third, and most importantly, leaders matter: they affect voters' decisions and have a discernible effect on the distribution of votes in an election. Fourth, there are consistent differences in the perception of party leaders according to voters' level of political sophistication. While all voters evaluate party leaders and consider leaders in their vote calculus, the more sophisticated do so the most. This book argues that personality plays an important role in elections, and that in a healthy democracy, so it should.
Anthony King (ed.)
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253135
- eISBN:
- 9780191599675
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253137.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
A widely held belief concerning democratic elections is that the votes of many individuals are influenced by their assessments of the competing candidates’ personalities and other personal ...
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A widely held belief concerning democratic elections is that the votes of many individuals are influenced by their assessments of the competing candidates’ personalities and other personal characteristics and that, as a consequence, the outcomes of entire democratic elections are often decided by ‘personality factors’ of this type. Experts on the electoral politics of six countries – the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Russia – set out to assess how far this emphasis on personality and personal characteristics is actually warranted by the available empirical evidence. Using a variety of methodologies, the authors seek to isolate and weigh the role played by personality both in influencing individual voters’ behaviour and in deciding election outcomes. They conclude that, even with regard to the United States, the impact of personality on individual voters’ decisions is usually quite small and that, more often than not, it cancels out. They also conclude that, largely for those reasons, the number of elections whose outcomes have been determined by voters’ assessments of the candidates is likewise quite small : much smaller than is usually supposed. Moreover, there are no signs that the importance of personality factors in determining election outcomes is increasing over time.Less
A widely held belief concerning democratic elections is that the votes of many individuals are influenced by their assessments of the competing candidates’ personalities and other personal characteristics and that, as a consequence, the outcomes of entire democratic elections are often decided by ‘personality factors’ of this type. Experts on the electoral politics of six countries – the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Russia – set out to assess how far this emphasis on personality and personal characteristics is actually warranted by the available empirical evidence. Using a variety of methodologies, the authors seek to isolate and weigh the role played by personality both in influencing individual voters’ behaviour and in deciding election outcomes. They conclude that, even with regard to the United States, the impact of personality on individual voters’ decisions is usually quite small and that, more often than not, it cancels out. They also conclude that, largely for those reasons, the number of elections whose outcomes have been determined by voters’ assessments of the candidates is likewise quite small : much smaller than is usually supposed. Moreover, there are no signs that the importance of personality factors in determining election outcomes is increasing over time.
Anthony King
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253135
- eISBN:
- 9780191599675
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253137.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
This is an introductory chapter, which starts with a general discussion of whether leaders’ personalities really matter in determining the outcome of democratic elections, and then considers a number ...
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This is an introductory chapter, which starts with a general discussion of whether leaders’ personalities really matter in determining the outcome of democratic elections, and then considers a number of preliminary points before the country analyses are presented in the following six chapters. The first point is to differentiate between the indirect influences a leader can have on voters and an election outcome (via his influence on his political party or government or administration) and the direct influence of a candidate’s personality or personal characteristics; this book is about the latter. The second point is to define what is meant by ‘personality or personal characteristics’, and the next two points are a discussion of why leaders’ attributes might, or might not, be thought to matter. The fifth point is to suggest analytical strategies for disentangling the effects of leaders’ personalities or personal characteristics from other factors; the three advanced are the experimental, improved–prediction and counterfactual strategies. Next, previous analytical findings are presented for the six countries studied in the book (United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Russia), and finally, hypotheses are offered for explaining when the impact of candidates’ personalities or personal characteristics might be greatest.Less
This is an introductory chapter, which starts with a general discussion of whether leaders’ personalities really matter in determining the outcome of democratic elections, and then considers a number of preliminary points before the country analyses are presented in the following six chapters. The first point is to differentiate between the indirect influences a leader can have on voters and an election outcome (via his influence on his political party or government or administration) and the direct influence of a candidate’s personality or personal characteristics; this book is about the latter. The second point is to define what is meant by ‘personality or personal characteristics’, and the next two points are a discussion of why leaders’ attributes might, or might not, be thought to matter. The fifth point is to suggest analytical strategies for disentangling the effects of leaders’ personalities or personal characteristics from other factors; the three advanced are the experimental, improved–prediction and counterfactual strategies. Next, previous analytical findings are presented for the six countries studied in the book (United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Russia), and finally, hypotheses are offered for explaining when the impact of candidates’ personalities or personal characteristics might be greatest.
Roy Pierce
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253135
- eISBN:
- 9780191599675
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253137.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
There have been only six French presidential elections between 1965 and 1995, but there has been considerable variation between these in the extent to which the candidates’ leadership attributes ...
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There have been only six French presidential elections between 1965 and 1995, but there has been considerable variation between these in the extent to which the candidates’ leadership attributes might have contributed to voter choice and electoral outcomes, and during the same period there has been an unusual degree of constancy in the nature and strength of the underlying social and political forces. The theme of this chapter is the collision between these two forces (transient candidate qualities and long–term electoral forces), but before this analysis is made, a brief account is given of how presidential elections are conducted in France. The main part of the chapter is an analysis of the six elections between 1965 and 1995: the 1965 de Gaulle election; the 1969 election won by Pompidou; the 1974 election won by Giscard d’Estaing; the 1981 and 1988 elections won by Mitterrand; and the 1995 election won by Chirac. Constraints on personal candidate appeal are then discussed, before presenting a further analysis of the 1988 election. The study focuses on the extent to which the traditional left–right dimension has affected the electorate’s behaviour and electoral outcome, and whether there were elections in which one candidate had a clear advantage over the other in terms of personal popularity or leadership attributes; the objective was to determine whether the left–right factor was weaker at elections where personal qualities were presumed stronger, and this hypothesis received some support from the analysis presented.Less
There have been only six French presidential elections between 1965 and 1995, but there has been considerable variation between these in the extent to which the candidates’ leadership attributes might have contributed to voter choice and electoral outcomes, and during the same period there has been an unusual degree of constancy in the nature and strength of the underlying social and political forces. The theme of this chapter is the collision between these two forces (transient candidate qualities and long–term electoral forces), but before this analysis is made, a brief account is given of how presidential elections are conducted in France. The main part of the chapter is an analysis of the six elections between 1965 and 1995: the 1965 de Gaulle election; the 1969 election won by Pompidou; the 1974 election won by Giscard d’Estaing; the 1981 and 1988 elections won by Mitterrand; and the 1995 election won by Chirac. Constraints on personal candidate appeal are then discussed, before presenting a further analysis of the 1988 election. The study focuses on the extent to which the traditional left–right dimension has affected the electorate’s behaviour and electoral outcome, and whether there were elections in which one candidate had a clear advantage over the other in terms of personal popularity or leadership attributes; the objective was to determine whether the left–right factor was weaker at elections where personal qualities were presumed stronger, and this hypothesis received some support from the analysis presented.
Timothy J. Colton
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199253135
- eISBN:
- 9780191599675
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199253137.003.0007
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
There are good reasons to suppose that electoral politics will be more leadership driven in a democratizing or semi–democratic nation than in older democratic polities possessing entrenched party ...
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There are good reasons to suppose that electoral politics will be more leadership driven in a democratizing or semi–democratic nation than in older democratic polities possessing entrenched party systems and coherent issue agendas. The Russian Federation’s watershed election of June–July 1996, in which its founding president, Boris Yeltsin, staged a stirring comeback to defeat the neo–Communist opposition and earn a second term in office, offers an opportunity to put this proposition to the test. The chapter demonstrates that the perceptions of the personal characteristics of the presidential candidates exerted substantial effects on the choices of the Russian electorate in 1996. Thorough examination discloses that these, and the underlying dynamic of transitional politics, were highly complex. The different sections of the chapter are: The New Russia and the 1996 Election; Sizing up the Candidates; Leadership Evaluations and the Vote – taking third variables into account, modelling the phenomenon, estimating leadership effects, differences across candidates and voters; and Conclusion.Less
There are good reasons to suppose that electoral politics will be more leadership driven in a democratizing or semi–democratic nation than in older democratic polities possessing entrenched party systems and coherent issue agendas. The Russian Federation’s watershed election of June–July 1996, in which its founding president, Boris Yeltsin, staged a stirring comeback to defeat the neo–Communist opposition and earn a second term in office, offers an opportunity to put this proposition to the test. The chapter demonstrates that the perceptions of the personal characteristics of the presidential candidates exerted substantial effects on the choices of the Russian electorate in 1996. Thorough examination discloses that these, and the underlying dynamic of transitional politics, were highly complex. The different sections of the chapter are: The New Russia and the 1996 Election; Sizing up the Candidates; Leadership Evaluations and the Vote – taking third variables into account, modelling the phenomenon, estimating leadership effects, differences across candidates and voters; and Conclusion.
Michael Potter
- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- September 2011
- ISBN:
- 9780199269730
- eISBN:
- 9780191699443
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199269730.001.0001
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics
This book presents a philosophical introduction to set theory. Anyone wishing to work on the logical foundations of mathematics must understand set theory, which lies at its heart. The book offers an ...
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This book presents a philosophical introduction to set theory. Anyone wishing to work on the logical foundations of mathematics must understand set theory, which lies at its heart. The book offers an account of cardinal and ordinal arithmetic, and the various axiom candidates. It discusses in detail the project of set-theoretic reduction, which aims to interpret the rest of mathematics in terms of set theory. The key question here is how to deal with the paradoxes that bedevil set theory. The book offers a simple version of the most widely accepted response to the paradoxes, which classifies sets by means of a hierarchy of levels. The book interweaves a presentation of the technical material with a philosophical critique. The book does not merely expound the theory dogmatically but at every stage discusses in detail the reasons that can be offered for believing it to be true.Less
This book presents a philosophical introduction to set theory. Anyone wishing to work on the logical foundations of mathematics must understand set theory, which lies at its heart. The book offers an account of cardinal and ordinal arithmetic, and the various axiom candidates. It discusses in detail the project of set-theoretic reduction, which aims to interpret the rest of mathematics in terms of set theory. The key question here is how to deal with the paradoxes that bedevil set theory. The book offers a simple version of the most widely accepted response to the paradoxes, which classifies sets by means of a hierarchy of levels. The book interweaves a presentation of the technical material with a philosophical critique. The book does not merely expound the theory dogmatically but at every stage discusses in detail the reasons that can be offered for believing it to be true.
Reuven Y. Hazan and Gideon Rahat
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- September 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780199572540
- eISBN:
- 9780191723070
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199572540.003.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The definition of candidate selection methods is the predominantly nonstandardized and unregimented mechanisms by which political parties choose their candidates for the general elections. The ...
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The definition of candidate selection methods is the predominantly nonstandardized and unregimented mechanisms by which political parties choose their candidates for the general elections. The importance of candidate selection is not only for the candidates and their parties, but also for their parent legislature and its performance – it influences the balance of power within the party, determines the personal composition of parliaments, and impacts on the behavior of legislators. Research on candidate selection, as opposed to the wider concept of political recruitment, suffers from a lack of cross‐national empirical studies. This book focuses on realistic candidacies, which include all those list positions or districts that are seen at least as winnable before the elections, and on the trend toward democratization within parties.Less
The definition of candidate selection methods is the predominantly nonstandardized and unregimented mechanisms by which political parties choose their candidates for the general elections. The importance of candidate selection is not only for the candidates and their parties, but also for their parent legislature and its performance – it influences the balance of power within the party, determines the personal composition of parliaments, and impacts on the behavior of legislators. Research on candidate selection, as opposed to the wider concept of political recruitment, suffers from a lack of cross‐national empirical studies. This book focuses on realistic candidacies, which include all those list positions or districts that are seen at least as winnable before the elections, and on the trend toward democratization within parties.
Richard S. Katz
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199257560
- eISBN:
- 9780191603280
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199257566.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Electoral reforms are surprisingly rare in established political systems. This chapter analyses the reasons why political actors might attempt to change an electoral system to one that more closely ...
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Electoral reforms are surprisingly rare in established political systems. This chapter analyses the reasons why political actors might attempt to change an electoral system to one that more closely matches their own interests, and the reasons why they might decide not to attempt to do this. It discusses the limitations of the rational actor paradigm. It identifies the circumstances under which electoral reform becomes more likely. It discusses ‘fashions’ in electoral reform, particularly the adoption of mixed systems in a number of countries and moves to widen voters’ intraparty candidate choice, and emphasises the important role of democratic values.Less
Electoral reforms are surprisingly rare in established political systems. This chapter analyses the reasons why political actors might attempt to change an electoral system to one that more closely matches their own interests, and the reasons why they might decide not to attempt to do this. It discusses the limitations of the rational actor paradigm. It identifies the circumstances under which electoral reform becomes more likely. It discusses ‘fashions’ in electoral reform, particularly the adoption of mixed systems in a number of countries and moves to widen voters’ intraparty candidate choice, and emphasises the important role of democratic values.
Peter M. Siavelis
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199257560
- eISBN:
- 9780191603280
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199257566.003.0021
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Chile’s binomial open-list PR system was selected by the Pinochet regime as the most likely to optimise the parliamentary strength of the authoritarian right given its level of electoral support. The ...
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Chile’s binomial open-list PR system was selected by the Pinochet regime as the most likely to optimise the parliamentary strength of the authoritarian right given its level of electoral support. The system was intended to lead to the fundamental reshaping of the party system, but instead, two broad alliances have arisen, incorporating many elements of the pre-Pinochet party system. The small district magnitude puts a premium on the need for parties to form alliances, and leads to extensive intra-alliance negotiations regarding candidate selection. The electoral system is unpopular with parties of the centre and left, but institutional barriers to electoral reform are high.Less
Chile’s binomial open-list PR system was selected by the Pinochet regime as the most likely to optimise the parliamentary strength of the authoritarian right given its level of electoral support. The system was intended to lead to the fundamental reshaping of the party system, but instead, two broad alliances have arisen, incorporating many elements of the pre-Pinochet party system. The small district magnitude puts a premium on the need for parties to form alliances, and leads to extensive intra-alliance negotiations regarding candidate selection. The electoral system is unpopular with parties of the centre and left, but institutional barriers to electoral reform are high.
Tapio Raunio
- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- February 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199257560
- eISBN:
- 9780191603280
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199257566.003.0023
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
The Finnish electoral system – which will be 100 years old in 2006 – enjoys a high level of legitimacy among voters, and is thus unlikely to be changed. Finland has one of the most candidate-centred ...
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The Finnish electoral system – which will be 100 years old in 2006 – enjoys a high level of legitimacy among voters, and is thus unlikely to be changed. Finland has one of the most candidate-centred electoral systems, with electors casting only one vote for one of a party’s candidates. This preference voting produces heated competition between candidates of the same party. PR in quite large constituencies has produced one of Europe’s largest party systems.Less
The Finnish electoral system – which will be 100 years old in 2006 – enjoys a high level of legitimacy among voters, and is thus unlikely to be changed. Finland has one of the most candidate-centred electoral systems, with electors casting only one vote for one of a party’s candidates. This preference voting produces heated competition between candidates of the same party. PR in quite large constituencies has produced one of Europe’s largest party systems.
Jonathan Bendor, Daniel Diermeier, David A. Siegel, and Michael M. Ting
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691135076
- eISBN:
- 9781400836802
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691135076.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The ...
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Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.Less
Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. While these formulations produce many insights, they also generate anomalies—most famously, about turnout. The rise of behavioral economics has posed new challenges to the premise of rationality. This book provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors—politicians as well as voters—are only boundedly rational. The theory posits learning via trial and error: actions that surpass an actor’s aspiration level are more likely to be used in the future, while those that fall short are less likely to be tried later. Based on this idea of adaptation, the book constructs formal models of party competition, turnout, and voters’ choices of candidates. These models predict substantial turnout levels, voters sorting into parties, and winning parties adopting centrist platforms. In multiparty elections, voters are able to coordinate vote choices on majority-preferred candidates, while all candidates garner significant vote shares. Overall, the behavioral theory and its models produce macroimplications consistent with the data on elections, and they use plausible microassumptions about the cognitive capacities of politicians and voters. A computational model accompanies the book and can be used as a tool for further research.
Joan E. McLean
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293484
- eISBN:
- 9780191598944
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293488.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
This chapter reviews existing research about the campaigns of women candidates for public office. McLean proposes an agenda for future research analysing the effects of gender on campaign strategy ...
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This chapter reviews existing research about the campaigns of women candidates for public office. McLean proposes an agenda for future research analysing the effects of gender on campaign strategy and suggests specific questions to be investigated in the areas of campaign decision‐making, staffing patterns, media strategy, campaign fund‐raising, and voter targeting.Less
This chapter reviews existing research about the campaigns of women candidates for public office. McLean proposes an agenda for future research analysing the effects of gender on campaign strategy and suggests specific questions to be investigated in the areas of campaign decision‐making, staffing patterns, media strategy, campaign fund‐raising, and voter targeting.
Barbara C. Burrell
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293484
- eISBN:
- 9780191598944
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293488.003.0004
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
This chapter reviews existing research about campaign finance and the funding of the campaigns of women candidates for public office. Burrell discusses the role of women's political action committees ...
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This chapter reviews existing research about campaign finance and the funding of the campaigns of women candidates for public office. Burrell discusses the role of women's political action committees (PACs), reviews the findings regarding campaign contributions to women candidates, and proposes an agenda for future research on money and women's candidacies for office.Less
This chapter reviews existing research about campaign finance and the funding of the campaigns of women candidates for public office. Burrell discusses the role of women's political action committees (PACs), reviews the findings regarding campaign contributions to women candidates, and proposes an agenda for future research on money and women's candidacies for office.
Kim Fridkin Kahn
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293484
- eISBN:
- 9780191598944
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293488.003.0008
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
This chapter reviews existing research about the media's treatment of women in politics. Kahn suggests an agenda for future research that includes analysis of: news treatment of women public ...
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This chapter reviews existing research about the media's treatment of women in politics. Kahn suggests an agenda for future research that includes analysis of: news treatment of women public officials, the effectiveness of women candidates’ media strategies, gender differences in politicians’ relationship with the press, gender differences among journalists in reporting on political news, and the effects of media on the political socialization of children.Less
This chapter reviews existing research about the media's treatment of women in politics. Kahn suggests an agenda for future research that includes analysis of: news treatment of women public officials, the effectiveness of women candidates’ media strategies, gender differences in politicians’ relationship with the press, gender differences among journalists in reporting on political news, and the effects of media on the political socialization of children.
Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Paul Waldman
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780195152777
- eISBN:
- 9780199833900
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0195152778.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
Examines the role journalists adopt during presidential campaigns, and how that role determines the frame of campaign news. Assuming that what is presented to the voters is a persona, journalists act ...
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Examines the role journalists adopt during presidential campaigns, and how that role determines the frame of campaign news. Assuming that what is presented to the voters is a persona, journalists act as amateur psychologists, seeking to discover the “real” person behind the candidate. They then focus on the moments or events that reinforce the conclusions they have made about the candidates’ respective characters.Less
Examines the role journalists adopt during presidential campaigns, and how that role determines the frame of campaign news. Assuming that what is presented to the voters is a persona, journalists act as amateur psychologists, seeking to discover the “real” person behind the candidate. They then focus on the moments or events that reinforce the conclusions they have made about the candidates’ respective characters.
Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Paul Waldman
- Published in print:
- 2002
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780195152777
- eISBN:
- 9780199833900
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0195152778.003.0003
- Subject:
- Political Science, American Politics
In the 2000 election, journalists settled on twin portraits of Al Gore and George W. Bush that framed the coverage each received. Gore was portrayed as the lying panderer, while Bush was portrayed as ...
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In the 2000 election, journalists settled on twin portraits of Al Gore and George W. Bush that framed the coverage each received. Gore was portrayed as the lying panderer, while Bush was portrayed as the inexperienced dolt. These portraits then determined how campaign events were interpreted. While neither portrait was complimentary, in the end they worked to Bush's advantage, because no moral value was attached to inexperience, while a moral value was attached to Gore's alleged dishonesty.Less
In the 2000 election, journalists settled on twin portraits of Al Gore and George W. Bush that framed the coverage each received. Gore was portrayed as the lying panderer, while Bush was portrayed as the inexperienced dolt. These portraits then determined how campaign events were interpreted. While neither portrait was complimentary, in the end they worked to Bush's advantage, because no moral value was attached to inexperience, while a moral value was attached to Gore's alleged dishonesty.
Penelope Mackie
- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- September 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199272204
- eISBN:
- 9780191604034
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199272204.003.0004
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology
This chapter discusses the proposal that identities across possible worlds may be determined by ‘extrinsic’ features, and compares this with an analogous ‘best-candidate’ account of identity over ...
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This chapter discusses the proposal that identities across possible worlds may be determined by ‘extrinsic’ features, and compares this with an analogous ‘best-candidate’ account of identity over time, according to which the identity of an object that exists at one time with an object that exists at another time may depend on the presence or absence of ‘competing candidates’. It argues that even if a best-candidate account of identity over time is acceptable, the ‘extrinsic determination’ account of identity across possible worlds should be rejected in favour of either a ‘bare identities’ or a counterpart-theoretic account.Less
This chapter discusses the proposal that identities across possible worlds may be determined by ‘extrinsic’ features, and compares this with an analogous ‘best-candidate’ account of identity over time, according to which the identity of an object that exists at one time with an object that exists at another time may depend on the presence or absence of ‘competing candidates’. It argues that even if a best-candidate account of identity over time is acceptable, the ‘extrinsic determination’ account of identity across possible worlds should be rejected in favour of either a ‘bare identities’ or a counterpart-theoretic account.
Hans‐Dieter Klingemann and Bernhard Wessels
- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199257683
- eISBN:
- 9780191600241
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/019925768X.003.0014
- Subject:
- Political Science, Comparative Politics
Addresses the question of the relevance the German mixed‐member electoral system has for the party system and for candidate vote, and argues that the mixed‐member electoral system does indeed live up ...
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Addresses the question of the relevance the German mixed‐member electoral system has for the party system and for candidate vote, and argues that the mixed‐member electoral system does indeed live up to its German moniker of ‘personalized proportional representation’, in that it provides at once individualized representation of geographic constituencies and proportionality. The analysis proceeds in four steps and discusses the impact of the electoral system on the interparty and intraparty dimensions. The first two sections deal with the impact of the electoral system (a) on the party system, and (b) on voting behavior, with special attention to ticket‐splitting. The third and fourth sections deal with (a) candidate selection and opportunity structures as shaped by the electoral system and the parties, and (b) the likelihood of a district performance‐based personal vote for members of parliament. Concludes with a confrontation of the normative expectations of the founding fathers and empirical reality and speculates about the future of the German party system.Less
Addresses the question of the relevance the German mixed‐member electoral system has for the party system and for candidate vote, and argues that the mixed‐member electoral system does indeed live up to its German moniker of ‘personalized proportional representation’, in that it provides at once individualized representation of geographic constituencies and proportionality. The analysis proceeds in four steps and discusses the impact of the electoral system on the interparty and intraparty dimensions. The first two sections deal with the impact of the electoral system (a) on the party system, and (b) on voting behavior, with special attention to ticket‐splitting. The third and fourth sections deal with (a) candidate selection and opportunity structures as shaped by the electoral system and the parties, and (b) the likelihood of a district performance‐based personal vote for members of parliament. Concludes with a confrontation of the normative expectations of the founding fathers and empirical reality and speculates about the future of the German party system.
