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Measuring the Campaign's Impact

in The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004

This chapter examines the influence of campaigning on voters' preferences. The goal is to consider campaigning effects from a variety of perspectives. First, the chapter examines the impact across ... More

This chapter examines the influence of campaigning on voters' preferences. The goal is to consider campaigning effects from a variety of perspectives. First, the chapter examines the impact across states and then across media markets, and second, considers the influence of campaigning on not only candidate support but also voters' favorability ratings of the candidates. Third, it estimates mobilization and persuasion effects through the use of control and interactive variables in multivariate models, and fourth, uses pooled time series data to construct a more dynamic (and realistic) picture of campaign effects. At first glance the data seem to demonstrate that campaigning advantages accrued over the fall do not consistently or significantly affect either vote choice or candidate favorability advantages. Upon closer inspection, however, it becomes clear that this is because both sides expend sufficient resources to get their messages out and because it is rare that one side allows the other to sustain a campaigning advantage in a competitive state. This interpretation is most clearly borne out by the pooled time series analysis, which provides evidence that short-term campaigning advantages produce support gains.Less

What we Know (And Don't Know) About Presidential Campaigns

in The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004

This chapter, which reviews the classic literature on campaigns, elections, and voting behavior, consciously attempts to define subtle and complex arguments on presidential campaign effects. It then ... More

This chapter, which reviews the classic literature on campaigns, elections, and voting behavior, consciously attempts to define subtle and complex arguments on presidential campaign effects. It then discusses the sources of renewed interest in campaign effects, before moving to a delineation of the most recent findings produced by this renaissance. Finally, the chapter identifies common ground and consensus, as well as gaps in our understanding—gaps that the book hopes to address.Less

Introduction: Seeing Signs from Different Perspectives

Todd Makse, Scott Minkoff, and Anand Sokhey

in Politics on Display: Yard Signs and the Politicization of Social Spaces

In this introductory chapter, we highlight the distinctiveness of the campaign yard sign as a form of political participation that is public, communicative, and confrontational. In contrast with the ... More

In this introductory chapter, we highlight the distinctiveness of the campaign yard sign as a form of political participation that is public, communicative, and confrontational. In contrast with the received wisdom of campaign professionals who are altogether skeptical about signs and a political science literature that has focused somewhat narrowly on the effectiveness of signs, we believe that yard signs are much more than campaign tools. We make the case for a comprehensive examination of yard signs as a political phenomenon, pointing to three attributes of yard signs that are individually interesting, but particularly compelling in combination: the symbolic aspect of signs as markers of partisan identity, the social aspect of signs as messages to neighbors and other audiences, and the spatial aspect of signs as information in social contexts.Less

Agenda-Setting Dynamics during the Campaign Period

Julia Partheymüller

in Voters and Voting in Context: Multiple Contexts and the Heterogeneous German Electorate

It is widely believed that the news media have a strong influence on defining what are the most important problems facing the country during election campaigns. Yet, recent research has pointed to ... More

It is widely believed that the news media have a strong influence on defining what are the most important problems facing the country during election campaigns. Yet, recent research has pointed to several factors that may limit the mass media’s agenda-setting power. Linking news media content to rolling cross-section survey data, the chapter examines the role of three such limiting factors in the context of the 2009 and the 2013 German federal elections: (1) rapid memory decay on the part of voters, (2) advertising by the political parties, and (3) the fragmentation of the media landscape. The results show that the mass media may serve as a powerful agenda setter, but also demonstrate that the media’s influence is strictly limited by voters’ cognitive capacities and the structure of the campaign information environment.Less

Always Late? Stability and Change in Individuals’ Time of Vote Decisions

Maria Preißinger

in Voters and Voting in Context: Multiple Contexts and the Heterogeneous German Electorate

In contrast to assumptions in the literature, voters do not make up their mind about which party to vote for at around the same time relative to the election date in different campaigns. By using a ... More

In contrast to assumptions in the literature, voters do not make up their mind about which party to vote for at around the same time relative to the election date in different campaigns. By using a unique intra- and inter-campaign panel survey of German voters in the 2009 and 2013 federal campaigns, this analysis demonstrates that voters arrived at their final voting decision at different points of time because they were subjected to different streams of political communication in these two campaigns. Thereby, this chapter makes a case for acknowledging more variation in campaigning by examining individuals’ decision-making in more than just a single campaign. Furthermore, it calls for future research to put analyses of campaign effects into context by studying non-campaign periods as well.Less

Money Matters: Local Campaigns at British General Elections

Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie

in Money and electoral politics: Local parties and funding at general elections

The legal rules surrounding constituency campaigns in the UK set very tight limits on candidates’ permitted campaign expenditures. Even so, most major party candidates spend far less than their ... More

The legal rules surrounding constituency campaigns in the UK set very tight limits on candidates’ permitted campaign expenditures. Even so, most major party candidates spend far less than their allowed maximum. There is variation between each party in how much its candidates spend: at recent elections, average Labour and Conservative candidate spending has outstripped the Liberal Democrats by considerable margins, though in the 2010 election Labour’s ability to spend fell markedly. But local campaign spending is not randomly distributed. Parties spend little in seats where they stand little chance of winning, and only relatively small amounts in seats they are bound to retain, focussing their efforts instead on the more marginal constituencies where relatively small shifts of support might alter the result. More spending in these seats supports more intensive campaigns there, and evidence shows that such campaigns can and do pay electoral dividends: other things being equal, the harder parties campaign locally, the bigger their share of the vote there is likely to be and (in a close national election) the more likely they are to win sufficient seats to emerge as overall victor.Less

Conclusions

Dov H. Levin

in Meddling in the Ballot Box: The Causes and Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions

Chapter 9 first briefly summarizes the findings from the preceding chapters regarding the causes of partisan electoral interventions and their effects on election results. It then discusses the wider ... More

Chapter 9 first briefly summarizes the findings from the preceding chapters regarding the causes of partisan electoral interventions and their effects on election results. It then discusses the wider contributions of this study to other subfields in international relations and comparative politics. It then assesses the policy implications of this research to cybersecurity. It first describes the need of policymakers in democratic countries to take immediate precautions in order to prevent the digitization (via cryptocurrencies) of another long-standing method of electoral intervention—covert campaign funding. It then discusses how the use of electronic voting methods of various kinds threatens to inadvertently bring back a pre-modern method of intervention—meddling in the vote tallies, and the best ways to prevent that “doomsday” scenario from occurring. The chapter concludes with future directions for research in this regard.Less

Between Fortuna and Virtu: Explaining Congress’ Ambiguous Victory in 2009

Yogendra Yadav and Suhas Palshikar

in Party Competition in Indian States: Electoral Politics in Post-Congress Polity

This chapter offers an analysis of the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections of 2009. Using aggregate data it explains the nature of the victory of the Congress party showing how the structure of ... More

This chapter offers an analysis of the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections of 2009. Using aggregate data it explains the nature of the victory of the Congress party showing how the structure of competition favoured the Congress. The chapter shows that three political elements worked in favour of the Congress: coalition making, governmental performance and the leadership. It contextualizes the election outcome by discussing the trends from previous elections and the nature of party competition around 2009. It further employs survey data to demonstrate the social bases of the support garnered by different political formations. The chapter also relates the outcome to the campaign and strategies of different parties. It argues that much of the play of power takes place in conditions that are not of the making of or amenable to change by anyone and yet the centrality of political skills, prowess and wisdom in modern politics remain crucial.Less

Civil Disobedience

B. R. Nanda

in In Gandhi’s Footsteps: The Life and Times of Jamnalal Bajaj

This chapter discusses Gandhi’s satyagraha struggle in the form of a civil disobedience campaign and non-payment of taxes. It relates that the British authorities initially underestimated the effects ... More

This chapter discusses Gandhi’s satyagraha struggle in the form of a civil disobedience campaign and non-payment of taxes. It relates that the British authorities initially underestimated the effects of the campaign. By early April, however, the Indian government started to perceive the dangers of Gandhi’s march. This event is a good example of how Gandhi was able to inspire a large group of Indians into action. By early April, however, the Indian government started to perceive the dangers of Gandhi’s march. The discussion then focuses on the commitment of Jamnalal and his family to civil disobedience, which started even before it was initiated. This is seen in Jankidevi’s suggestion that Kamalnayan should be part of the first band of Satyagrahis in the march to Dandi, and her organization of civil disobedience in Bombay while Jamnalal was in Nasik jail.Less