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Looking for underlying drivers to make sense of the present and to foretell the future is a time-tested trick. That is why this chapter (and the book, in various other places) quotes Virgil's Aeneid, a 2000-year-old story about underlying drivers and inevitable trends. Like Virgil's Romans, we are in tempestuous circumstances. Humanity has often found itself in situations of rapid change before. And has learned that, with hindsight, the underlying drivers and the changes they caused were very clear. As largely unforeseen changes roil companies, industries, global economies and financial markets, it is possible to step back right now, in the midst of tumult, and discern the patterns that will later seem obvious with hindsight. Like Virgil, this book has argued that only by understanding the underlying forces can we recognize the source of power within a new era. And only then can we successfully profit from the momentum that these forces create. That is the logic flow of this book. Readers can benefit, right now, from applying this understanding to better anticipate the effects of transparency and to maximize returns for their companies or shareholders, and even to enhance the returns on their own human capital as well.

This chapter considers the particular types of expertise that tribes have built as a result. Specifically, the chapter details how knowledge changes organizations and how it alters political strategies. When tribes develop specialized knowledge about problems, problem-solving routines, and environments, they are better positioned to envision and implement new strategies on their own. This chapter examines four critical expertise-centered behaviors. Two expertise-centered behaviors are manifestations of analytic capacity: diagnosing and anticipating. Two others are manifestations of capacity for action: initiating and partnering. Greater expertise increases all four behaviors. This chapter is of particular interest to scholars of public management and administration.

This chapter talks about getting caught in a loop as one of Terry Gilliam's greatest fears, much like the one that characterises the 12 Monkeys series, which has become derivative and repetitive. It explains why Gilliam famously refused to read Orwell's 1984 before making the film Brazil, and why he refused to see La Jetée before making 12 Monkeys. It also discusses anticipated memory, recollections from the future, and pre-emptive foretastes of the as-yet unknown. The chapter examines four-dimensional creativity enabled by two basic steps: rejection of linearity and partiality for the possible over the real. It looks at principal differences between 12 Monkeys the film and 12 Monkeys the show.

Having shown that the economist’s case against professional economic ethics is deficient, this chapter advances a positive case for professional economic ethics. Owing to its monopoly of expertise over subject matter this is vital to social welfare, economists face daunting ethical responsibilities that are reflected in the “professional covenant.” The chapter then presents an “escalating case” for professional economic ethics which comprises four uncontroversial propositions about what economists do and can know, and about the effects of economic practice on others. Each step in the case entails difficult ethical matters, while all steps taken together compel the conclusion that the profession has been remiss in declining to pursue professional economic ethics.

This chapter considers how the intertwined components of continuity and different forms of change apply to human experiences of the past, present, and anticipated futures. It considers the recollection of the persistent past, adjustment to the adaptive past, and coping with the turbulent past. It argues that studying history is always work in progress because all evidence and experience is situated within an asymmetrical time and is therefore always expanding and changing the perspectives. This chapter also contends that the three-dimensionality of history is a convenient way of referring to the many-sided elements within persistence/adaptation/fiery turbulence.

Through a series of case studies, this chapter explores how public opinion and anticipated political costs more generally factor into presidents’ strategic calculus when contemplating unilateral action. The chapter begins by analyzing three cases in which presidents explicitly considered, but ultimately decided against taking unilateral action. The chapter then examines a case in which such anticipatory calculations failed. In this case, a strong and swift popular backlash led to a quick administration reversal. The chapter concludes with a pair of case studies showing how presidents can sometimes choose to act unilaterally even when they anticipate political resistance, but that concerns about political costs can affect both the scope and timing of executive action.

This chapter investigates Blair’s acceptance, in 2006, of what had become a notice to quit as Leader. In explaining what forced this position, attention is often primarily focused on Brown and a Brownite ‘coup’ but argued here is that detailed attention should be focused on Blair and his management. The evidence uncovered indicates that in the PLP and on the NEC management had become divided and consequently the rolling managerial coup failed to roll further. There was a new atmosphere of non-cooperation. An impression gained ground that the Leader, who had refused to commit himself to a date of departure, did not feel a duty of care towards the party and his word was not to be trusted. Yet managerial complacency was encouraged by confidence in the continuing insulation of the nominating procedure for Leadership elections. There was a remarkable inability of otherwise resourceful supportive managers to anticipate an outside-the-rules initiative of a section of the PLP. When it happened it exposed Blair’s diminished support and forced his public acceptance.

This chapter looks at how carceral affiliations come to connect the prison and high-incarceration neighborhoods. For incarcerated residents, affiliations serve as important ties to home and as sources of support in unpredictable settings. When these community members return home with little formal or material reentry support, many hold on to these identities—both because they may supply the only help that parolees do find and because these residents can never be certain that they will not be locked up again. At the same time, local youth learn about these affiliations from previously or currently imprisoned friends, relatives, and neighbors, informing how they imagine they will need to survive their own potential experiences with incarceration. This not only proliferates carceral affiliations in local spaces but also contributes to an understanding of poor black and Latina/o neighborhoods as pathological that many young residents internalize.

This chapter uses a case study approach to analyse the broader legislative impact of the House of Lords, beyond government defeats. It considers amendments to 12 bills in the 2005 and 2010 parliaments. Analysis of the origin and outcome of each amendment shows that while most that succeeded had government backing, the majority of them had previously been pressed on government by non-government peers. The chapter then considers six 'modes’ of legislative debate in the Lords: probing mode, quasi academic (expert) mode, constitutional propriety mode, interest group mode, second thought mode and adversarial mode. The chapter also discusses government’s internal preparation of legislation, and concludes that the Lords has an important deterrent role, through 'anticipated reactions’, as well as forcing actual amendments once bills are introduced. Private Members’ Bills are also briefly discussed.

This chapter discusses debates, questions and committee work in the House of Lords. It summarises the procedures for each, and considers their policy impact, drawing attention to similarities and differences from the House of Commons. It shows that questions and debates are less regulated than in the Commons, and can put ministers under expert scrutiny. Likewise, Lords committees (which are 'crosscutting’ rather than shadowing departments) produce expert reports which are often highly regarded. The chapter shows that committees with a constitutional remit - the Constitution Committee, Delegated Powers and Regulatory Reform Committee and Joint Committee on Human Rights (JCHR) have become particularly important to the House of Lords’ policy contribution. These committees operate in part through recommendations but also - like debates and questions - through the power of 'anticipated reactions'.

This chapter provides a closer look at the branching patterns of driver inputs to higher-order thalamic nuclei, and introduces their functional significance for discussion in later chapters. Their thalamic branches bring information for relay to higher cortical levels, including a copy of the information carried in the motor branches about anticipated cortical contributions to the control of actions and consequent changes in perceptions. In this way, the cortex can add to the control of an action when there is a mismatch between action and perception. Most of these branched axons that have so far been described come from early sensory areas and only a few from other, higher areas have been studied. These branching inputs are a part of the hierarchy of cortical areas that provide an opportunity for higher areas to monitor lower areas and, when needed, contribute to the motor control of the phylogenetically older brainstem and spinal centres. A far more extensive review of the branched thalamic driver inputs and their contributions to the control of actions than we have at present will be crucial for understanding the full complexity of the thalamic relay.

This chapter explores the significance of the dual meaning of the driver inputs to the thalamus in more detail. What happens to these messages when they reach the cortical hierarchies? Currently we know little about how the cortex reacts to the two meanings of the incoming messages. The efference copies that reach the cortex may act both in the control of movements, as do efference copies in other parts of the brain, and may also act to generate a conscious anticipation of an action and its sensory consequences. Or it may do both, depending on the circumstances. Where the thalamic relay fails for any reason while the motor branch remains functional, actions may be assigned, as in schizophrenic patients, to external agents. For any one cortical area, we need to understand not only the messages it receives from the thalamus but also the motor instructions it sends out and how it fits into the cortical hierarchy.

This chapter presents evidence that at each level of the thalamocortical hierarchy the strength of our conscious perceptions increases. Conscious processes are not all-or-none effects, they are graded. Four factors may be particularly relevant for understanding the neural production of conscious experiences: (1) the actions of the thalamic gate; (2) the neural activity that anticipates an organism’s actions; (3) the activity of the hierarchy of cortical monitors; and particularly (4) the motor actions produced by the outputs of the cortical monitors and acting on the phylogenetically old parts of the brain: these serve to keep actions in accord with anticipations.

The promotion of physical activity and exercise has been a persistently challenging problem for industrialized societies. Traditionally, these behaviors have been conceptualized as resulting from the rational processing of information (e.g., regarding anticipated benefits, personal capabilities, sources of support). Therefore, attempts to change these behaviors have relied on the provision of information. The persistent failure to account for substantial portions of behavioral variance or raise physical activity and exercise behavior in a sustainable manner is forcing researchers to expand their theoretical perspective. Thus, emerging dual-process conceptualizations postulate that, besides an information-based pathway, physical activity and exercise may be influenced by affect, such as the energy and tiredness felt in daily life, or the pleasure and displeasure responses to past exercise. This chapter highlights potential conceptual and methodological pitfalls in this emerging line of research and summarizes the promising results of early correlational and experimental studies.

This chapter provides a brief introduction to the topic of affective determinants of health behavior. In doing so it analyzes each aspect of the book’s topic. It begins by outlining what is meant by “health behavior.” It then considers traditional views of the key determinants of such behaviors and the value of and need for integrating affective determinants within health behavior theories. Next, it offers a conceptualization of affective determinants in relation to health behaviors, including distinctions between/among (1) affect proper versus affect processing (the latter also known as affective judgments or cognitively mediated affect); (2) core affect versus moods and emotions; (3) integral versus incidental affect; and (4) anticipated affect, affective attitudes, implicit attitudes, and affective associations. It closes with a brief overview of measurement of affect in the context of health behavior research.

Recent research has explored the effects of two affective influences within models such as the theory of planned behavior and reasoned action approach: experiential attitude and anticipated affect. Both refer to perceptions of future affect, that is, cognitively mediated affect. Primary studies and meta-analytic reviews supporting the role of these two affective variables on health behavior are presented. The correlational data use prospective designs and control for other health cognitions and past behavior. The experimental data also explore whether the affective variables mediate the impact of the “affective intervention” on behavior. Strong support is found across studies for both experiential attitude and anticipated affect as important determinants of health behaviors even when controlling for other health cognitions and past behavior. The need for further experimental studies with objective measures of health behavior is noted. Further the testing of the combined effects of manipulating both affective variables is highlighted for further attention.

The intertemporal models studied so far postulate that people use savings in order to smooth income fluctuations, and that unless there are liquidity constraints, consumption responds little if at all to changes in income that were expected. When this major theoretical prediction is violated, researchers conclude that consumption is excessively sensitive to anticipated income changes. In this chapter we review some of the empirical approaches researchers have taken to estimate the response of consumption to anticipated income changes. We point out that empirically it is very hard to identify situations in which income changes in a predictable way. But even if the empirical difficulties can be surmounted, there are many plausible explanations for the rejection of the implications of the theoretical models, including liquidity constraints, non-separability between consumption and leisure, home production, the persistence of habits, aggregation bias, and the durability of goods.