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Together with Chs 5 and 6, Ch. 7 forms the historical, empirical, and quantitative heart of the book, providing the foundational evidence against which earlier postulated theories are gauged (Ch 1 and 2), and upon which subsequent comparisons, recommendations, and conclusions are based. Chapter 7 deals with the methodology used for an election re-running exercise under alternative electoral systems, presents the results obtained for each of the five country case studies presented in the book, and discusses the practical implications of each set of re-running observations, as well as the positive and negative consequences for stability and representative government; further details of the methods used for crafting districts for re-runs are given in an appendix at the end of the book. The chapter first discusses the importance of re-running evidence, and second, outlines the range of alternative electoral systems used for the re-runnings, justifying their inclusion in the exercise, and addressing the underlying assumptions and methodological objections. Third, results are given of plurality single-member districts (SMD) elections re-run in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe under the alternative vote in single-member districts (AV-SMD), the alternative vote in multi-member districts (AV-MMD), list proportional representation (PR) in regionally defined multi-member districts, and list PR in one national multi-member district. Finally, the results are given of re-running the list PR elections held in Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Namibia under plurality SMD, AV-SMD, AV-MMD, and the list PR method not utilized in the actual elections.

This is the third of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book, and deals with the theoretical debate underlying the choice of electoral system in divided societies. The five sections of the chapter are: The Importance of Electoral Systems; The Range of Electoral Systems; What Criteria Should Electoral Systems Aim to Fulfil?; The Debate over Electoral Systems and Conflict Management in Africa (single-member district plurality, proportional representation, the alternative vote in multi-member districts (the Horowitz proposal for South Africa); and Conclusion. The overall discussion includes reference not only to four of the country case studies presented in the rest of the book (Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) but also to numerous other countries worldwide.

A comparative analysis is given of both actual and simulated election results of the five country case studies (from Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) presented in the book, along a number of dimensions relating to system inclusiveness: party system dynamics, disproportionality, executive formation, and descriptive representation. Chief among the questions addressed are: what determines the index of disproportionality, how representative are comparative parliaments in terms of the presence of women and ethnic minorities, what are the electoral system implications for voter accessibility, does the chosen system alleviate or accentuate entrenched and geographically concentrated party fiefdoms, how competitive or frozen is the party system, is there an electoral system effect on cabinet formation, and does the type of proportional representation (PR) used matter to the final results? The chapter concludes with a detailed discussion of the Horowitz alternative vote in multi-member districts (AV-MMD) proposal across all five case study countries, and an institutional choice-based analysis of the interaction between negotiated transitions to democracy and the type of electoral system chosen for the new democratic constitution. Overall, the chapter demonstrates that in the context of institutional design in southern Africa, PR systems outperform their plurality–majority alternatives in almost all the categories of analysis.